+ Rise of the Driverless Car and How It Will Impact You
+ Your world is about to change with widespread adoption of driverless cars.
+ Driverless cars or autonomous vehicles that interact with
+ their surroundings with radar, GPS, proximity sensors, and computer image enhancement.
+ This information is fed into a control system that uses it to plot navigation paths
+ and to respond to obstacles and road directions. A driverless car is capable of updating
+ its status based on changing conditions. Driverless cars should be autonomous even when
+ entering uncharted regions.
+ In the United States, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has
+ proposed the following levels of autonomy for motorized vehicles:
+
+ - Level 0 The driver completely controls the vehicle at all times.
+ - Level 1 Individual vehicle controls are automated, such as electronic
+ stability control or automatic braking.
+ - Level 2 At least two controls can be automated in unison, such as
+ adaptive cruise control in combination with lane keeping.
+ - Level 3 The driver can fully cede control of all safety-critical
+ functions in certain conditions. The car senses when conditions require the driver to
+ retake control and provides a "sufficiently comfortable transition time" for the
+ driver to do so.
+ - Level 4 The vehicle performs all safety-critical functions for the
+ entire trip, with the driver not expected to control the vehicle at any time. Because this
+ vehicle would control all functions from start to stop, including all parking functions,
+ it could include unoccupied cars.
+
+ Currently, we are at Level 2 with many vehicles able to provide automated safety systems, such as
+ automatic braking in response to input from collision sensors.
+
When Does Full Autonomy Arrive?
+ Level 4 autonomous vehicles are arriving and they're arriving quickly. The obstacles to adoption
+ of a driverless economy are legal and technical. The United States traffic code does not
+ prohibit autonomous vehicles, but it also does not specifically address them. Several states,
+ including Nevada, Florida, California, and Michigan, have enacted traffic rules specifically
+ tailored to driverless cars and more states are in the processing of enacting such legislation.
+ One area of legal entanglement is the laws against distracted driving. Google specifically requested
+ an exemption to permit occupants to send text messages while sitting behind the wheel of an
+ autonomous vehicle. Other similar regulations will need to be addressed as driverless cars move
+ from the testing stage into general use.
+ Other countries have permitted the testing of autonomous vehicles on public roads. The United Kingdom
+ enacted a testing phase in 2013, followed shortly by France in 2014.
+ Driverless cars have driven through San Francisco's Lombard Street, navigating its steep hairpin turns,
+ and city traffic. The testing vehicles provide an override to allow a human driver to take control
+ of the car. By August 2012, testers announced that they have driven over 300,000 miles accident-free.
+ By April 2014, autonomous vehicles have logged nearly 700,000 miles. As of June 2015, driverless cars
+ have been involved in 12 minor accidents on public roads. Eight of these accidents involved being
+ rear-ended, two in which the vehicle was side-swiped by another driver, one of which involved
+ another driver rolling through a stop sign, and one where the car was being driven manually.
+ Driverless cars have not yet been tested in heavy rain or snow due to safety concerns.
+ Nor have they been tested in areas with temporary traffic lights or complex unmapped intersections.
+ The technical issues are daunting. An autonomous vehicle has difficulty with potholes,
+ roadside trash and debris, and interpreting unexpected signals, such as a police car signaling the
+ vehicle to pull over.
+ Experts predict that autonomous vehicles will gradually be introduced into the market with
+ the following anticipated benchmarks:
+
+ - 2017 U.S. Department of Transportation hopes to publish a rule mandating
+ vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication by an unspecified future date.
+ - 2018 Tesla Motors expects to produce a version of fully self-driving cars,
+ where the driver can fall asleep, though the actuality of marketing such a vehicle will depend on
+ the economic and legal climate.
+ - 2020 GM, Mercedes-Benz, Audi, Nissan, BMW, Renault, Tesla, and Google all expect
+ to sell vehicles that can drive themselves at least part of the time.
+ - 2024 Jaguar expects to release an autonomous car.
+ - 2025 Daimler and Ford expect to release autonomous vehicles on the market.
+ - 2035 Information Handling Services (IHS) Automotive Report projects that most self-driving vehicles
+ will be operated completely independently from a human occupant’s control.
+ - 2040 Experts at the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)
+ estimate that up to 75% of all vehicles will be autonomous.
+
+ Clearly, the introduction and widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles will have enormous
+ repercussions.
+ The Impact of Driverless Cars
+ While it appears at first glance that a driverless car will be more dangerous than a
+ manually driven vehicle, it has been estimated that once we switch to a driverless
+ economy, we will see a 90% reduction in crashes, saving nearly 30,000 lives and
+ preventing 2.12 million injuries annually. Indeed, the whole design of the car will
+ change. Currently, a car is designed around the needs of the driver, but, when
+ all in the car are passengers, the interior space will be designed more economically and
+ efficiently.
+ Beyond redesigning the car, we will also redesign our system of roads and traffic
+ control. This could mean loss of lots of road signs, lane markers, and street lights.
+ Cars can merge and change lanes more efficiently and speed limits can be safely
+ raised. Traffic control planners can redesign traffic flow to cooperative patterns
+ that will increase safety and reduce travel time (and road rage!)
+ But this innovation is not without cost. We are a driving-based economy. Truckers,
+ taxis, car rentals, and car servicing are all based directly or indirectly on
+ manually-driven vehicles. The Bureau of Labor Statistics lists that 884,000 people
+ are employed in motor vehicles and parts manufacturing, and an additional 3.02 million in
+ dealer and maintenance network. Truck, bus, delivery, and taxi drivers account
+ for nearly 6 million professional driving jobs. That is 10 million jobs immediately at
+ risk with a move to a driverless economy and that does not count ancillary industries,
+ such as roadside diners and motels, which will also be affected when we need to
+ drive less often.
+ On the other hand, research shows that currently manually-driven cars are driven
+ just 4% of the time at an average cost of $9000 per year in maintenance and upkeep.
+ Thus, an economy in which autonomous vehicles offered through car-sharing services like
+ Uber replace self-owned and self-driven cars, promises an enormous amount of savings
+ to the individual. It is estimated that despite the economic upheaval, eliminating the need
+ for car ownership will yield over $1 trillion in additional disposable income.
+ These are exciting times. While the full economic and social impact of a driverless
+ economy are still not fully grasped, the driverless economy once fully implemented will dwarf the impact of
+ the automobile, airplane, personal computer, and cell phone in how it changes our
+ lives and work.
+ Now we just need to create a driverless car that can fly and I'm all set.
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