From 885b1ef0f6d13d24b00d449ce030b51976cbc142 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 08:28:46 -0500 Subject: [PATCH 1/4] Update OBR economic forecasts to March 2026 EFO Update CPI, RPI, average earnings, house prices, per capita GDP, and social rent forecasts from the March 2026 Economic and Fiscal Outlook (Table A.1). Remaining variables (CPIH, mortgage interest, rent, non-labour income, mixed income, council tax by country) retain November 2025 values pending publication of the OBR detailed forecast tables spreadsheets. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 --- changelog.d/update-obr-march-2026.changed.md | 1 + .../gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml | 156 +++++++++--------- 2 files changed, 79 insertions(+), 78 deletions(-) create mode 100644 changelog.d/update-obr-march-2026.changed.md diff --git a/changelog.d/update-obr-march-2026.changed.md b/changelog.d/update-obr-march-2026.changed.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..65a29c194 --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/update-obr-march-2026.changed.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +Update OBR economic forecasts to March 2026 EFO. diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml index 866c927de..cf46ec1ca 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ # # Data sources: # - 2009-2024: OBR outturn data from detailed forecast tables -# - 2025-2030: OBR forecast from latest Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO) +# - 2025-2030: OBR forecast from latest Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO, March 2026) # - 2031+: OBR long-run equilibrium assumptions: # - CPI: 2.0% (Bank of England target) # - RPI/CPIH: ~2.4% (CPI + 0.4pp wedge, reflecting housing costs growth) @@ -33,12 +33,12 @@ obr: 2023-01-01: 0.0969 2024-01-01: 0.0359 # Forecast (2025-2030) - 2025-01-01: 0.0433 - 2026-01-01: 0.0371 - 2027-01-01: 0.0313 - 2028-01-01: 0.0287 - 2029-01-01: 0.0291 - 2030-01-01: 0.0231 + 2025-01-01: 0.041 + 2026-01-01: 0.031 + 2027-01-01: 0.030 + 2028-01-01: 0.028 + 2029-01-01: 0.029 + 2030-01-01: 0.023 # Long-run assumptions (2031+) 2031-01-01: 0.0230 2032-01-01: 0.0237 @@ -87,8 +87,8 @@ obr: unit: /1 label: Retail price index growth reference: - - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ + - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (Table A.1) + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ - title: OBR long-run RPI-CPI wedge methodology (2031+ values derived from this) href: https://obr.uk/box/the-long-run-difference-between-rpi-and-cpi-inflation/ average_earnings: @@ -110,14 +110,14 @@ obr: 2021-01-01: 0.059 2022-01-01: 0.0614 2023-01-01: 0.0622 - 2024-01-01: 0.0493 + 2024-01-01: 0.051 # Forecast (2025-2030) - 2025-01-01: 0.0517 - 2026-01-01: 0.0333 - 2027-01-01: 0.0225 - 2028-01-01: 0.0210 - 2029-01-01: 0.0221 - 2030-01-01: 0.0232 + 2025-01-01: 0.053 + 2026-01-01: 0.034 + 2027-01-01: 0.024 + 2028-01-01: 0.021 + 2029-01-01: 0.022 + 2030-01-01: 0.024 # Long-run assumptions (2031+) 2031-01-01: 0.0332 2032-01-01: 0.0371 @@ -166,9 +166,9 @@ obr: unit: /1 label: Average earnings growth reference: - - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.6) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ - - title: OBR long-run economic methodology (2031+ values derived from this) + - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (Table A.1) + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ + - title: OBR long-run economic methodology (2031+ values derived from this, unchanged from November 2025) href: https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/the-economy-forecast/potential-output-and-the-output-gap/ consumer_price_index: @@ -190,14 +190,14 @@ obr: 2021-01-01: 0.04 2022-01-01: 0.0907 2023-01-01: 0.0730 - 2024-01-01: 0.0253 + 2024-01-01: 0.025 # Forecast (2025-2030) - 2025-01-01: 0.0345 - 2026-01-01: 0.0248 - 2027-01-01: 0.0202 - 2028-01-01: 0.0204 - 2029-01-01: 0.0204 - 2030-01-01: 0.0200 + 2025-01-01: 0.034 + 2026-01-01: 0.023 + 2027-01-01: 0.020 + 2028-01-01: 0.020 + 2029-01-01: 0.020 + 2030-01-01: 0.020 # Long-run assumptions (2031+): Bank of England 2% target 2031-01-01: 0.0200 2032-01-01: 0.0200 @@ -246,8 +246,8 @@ obr: unit: /1 label: Consumer price index growth reference: - - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ + - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (Table A.1) + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ - title: Bank of England inflation target (2031+ assumes 2% target) href: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation @@ -266,8 +266,8 @@ obr: unit: /1 label: After housing costs consumer price index growth reference: - - title: OBR EFO November 2025 - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ + - title: OBR EFO March 2026 + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ - title: ONS CPI weights href: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/datasets/consumerpriceinflationupdatingweightsannexatablesw1tow3 - title: ONS CPI series excluding housing costs @@ -335,8 +335,8 @@ obr: unit: /1 label: CPIH growth reference: - - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ + - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7) + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ - title: OBR long-run RPI-CPI wedge methodology (2031+ values derived from this) href: https://obr.uk/box/the-long-run-difference-between-rpi-and-cpi-inflation/ @@ -348,7 +348,7 @@ obr: 2022-01-01: 0.0987 2023-01-01: 0.1215 2024-01-01: 0.0492 - # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Table 1.12 + # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO March 2026, Table 1.12 2025-01-01: 0.0519 2026-01-01: 0.0565 2027-01-01: 0.0474 @@ -359,8 +359,8 @@ obr: unit: /1 label: Non-labour income growth reference: - - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.12) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ + - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.12) + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ council_tax: england: @@ -369,7 +369,7 @@ obr: # Outturn (2023-2024) 2023-01-01: 0.051 2024-01-01: 0.051 - # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Expenditure Table 4.1 + # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO March 2026, Expenditure Table 4.1 2025-01-01: 0.0781 2026-01-01: 0.0530 2027-01-01: 0.0579 @@ -379,15 +379,15 @@ obr: metadata: unit: /1 reference: - - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, expenditure, Table 4.1) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ + - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, expenditure, Table 4.1) + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ scotland: description: Growth in the level of council tax receipts in Scotland. values: # Outturn (2023-2024) 2023-01-01: 0.052 2024-01-01: 0.001 - # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Expenditure Table 4.1 + # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO March 2026, Expenditure Table 4.1 2025-01-01: 0.0384 2026-01-01: 0.0384 2027-01-01: 0.0384 @@ -397,15 +397,15 @@ obr: metadata: unit: /1 reference: - - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, expenditure, Table 4.1) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ + - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, expenditure, Table 4.1) + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ wales: description: Growth in the level of council tax receipts in Wales. values: # Outturn (2023-2024) 2023-01-01: 0.058 2024-01-01: 0.077 - # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Expenditure Table 4.1 + # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO March 2026, Expenditure Table 4.1 2025-01-01: 0.0581 2026-01-01: 0.0581 2027-01-01: 0.0581 @@ -415,8 +415,8 @@ obr: metadata: unit: /1 reference: - - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, expenditure, Table 4.1) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ + - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, expenditure, Table 4.1) + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ per_capita: gdp: @@ -427,19 +427,19 @@ obr: 2022-01-01: 0.1019 2023-01-01: 0.0532 2024-01-01: 0.0372 - # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Table 1.4 minus population growth - 2025-01-01: 0.0418 - 2026-01-01: 0.0327 - 2027-01-01: 0.0326 - 2028-01-01: 0.0302 - 2029-01-01: 0.0294 - 2030-01-01: 0.0306 + # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO March 2026, Table A.1 nominal GDP minus population growth + 2025-01-01: 0.0438 + 2026-01-01: 0.0292 + 2027-01-01: 0.0323 + 2028-01-01: 0.0310 + 2029-01-01: 0.0296 + 2030-01-01: 0.0315 metadata: unit: /1 label: Per capita GDP growth reference: - - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.4) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ + - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.4) + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ mixed_income: description: Per capita mixed income year-on-year growth. @@ -449,7 +449,7 @@ obr: 2022-01-01: 0.0296 2023-01-01: -0.0060 2024-01-01: 0.0273 - # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Table 1.12 minus population growth + # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO March 2026, Table 1.12 minus population growth 2025-01-01: 0.0024 2026-01-01: 0.0362 2027-01-01: 0.0374 @@ -460,8 +460,8 @@ obr: unit: /1 label: Per capita mixed income growth reference: - - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.12) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ + - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.12) + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ non_labour_income: description: Per capita non-labour income year-on-year growth. @@ -471,7 +471,7 @@ obr: 2022-01-01: 0.0894 2023-01-01: 0.1084 2024-01-01: 0.0385 - # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Table 1.12 minus population growth + # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO March 2026, Table 1.12 minus population growth 2025-01-01: 0.0447 2026-01-01: 0.0527 2027-01-01: 0.0437 @@ -482,8 +482,8 @@ obr: unit: /1 label: Per capita non-labour income growth reference: - - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.12) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ + - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.12) + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ house_prices: description: House prices year-on-year growth. @@ -492,20 +492,20 @@ obr: 2021-01-01: 0.082 2022-01-01: 0.0926 2023-01-01: 0.0036 - 2024-01-01: 0.0083 + 2024-01-01: 0.007 # Forecast (2025-2030) - 2025-01-01: 0.0294 - 2026-01-01: 0.0222 - 2027-01-01: 0.0279 - 2028-01-01: 0.0272 - 2029-01-01: 0.0257 - 2030-01-01: 0.0242 + 2025-01-01: 0.028 + 2026-01-01: 0.024 + 2027-01-01: 0.029 + 2028-01-01: 0.027 + 2029-01-01: 0.026 + 2030-01-01: 0.024 metadata: unit: /1 label: House prices growth reference: - - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.16) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ + - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (Table A.1) + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ mortgage_interest: description: Mortgage interest year-on-year growth. @@ -526,8 +526,8 @@ obr: unit: /1 label: Mortgage interest growth reference: - - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ + - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7) + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ social_rent: description: Rent year-on-year growth (CPI+1%, one year lagged). @@ -538,8 +538,8 @@ obr: 2024-01-01: 0.083 # Forecast (2025-2030): Derived from CPI+1%, one year lagged 2025-01-01: 0.035 - 2026-01-01: 0.045 - 2027-01-01: 0.035 + 2026-01-01: 0.044 + 2027-01-01: 0.033 2028-01-01: 0.030 2029-01-01: 0.030 2030-01-01: 0.030 @@ -547,8 +547,8 @@ obr: unit: /1 label: Social rent growth reference: - - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (derived from CPI+1%, one year lagged) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ + - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (derived from CPI+1%, one year lagged) + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ rent: description: Rent year-on-year growth, private and social (ONS series D7GQ). values: @@ -568,8 +568,8 @@ obr: unit: /1 label: Rent growth reference: - - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ + - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7) + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ ons: population: @@ -657,8 +657,8 @@ ons: reference: - title: ONS National Accounts D.41g - Households interest received (HAXV series) href: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/haxv/ukea - - title: OBR EFO November 2025 - Non-labour income growth used as proxy for 2025+ (Table 1.12) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ + - title: OBR EFO March 2026 - Non-labour income growth used as proxy for 2025+ (Table 1.12) + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ private_rental_prices: UNITED_KINGDOM: description: Private rental prices year-on-year growth in United Kingdom. From 8233f1a8b6ea176f93de2fcedc42d6f6b31e745b Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 08:33:13 -0500 Subject: [PATCH 2/4] Revert references to November 2025 for variables not yet updated Variables still using November 2025 forecast values (CPIH, mortgage interest, rent, non-labour income, council tax by country, etc.) should reference the November 2025 EFO, not March 2026. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 --- .../gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml | 44 +++++++++---------- 1 file changed, 22 insertions(+), 22 deletions(-) diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml index cf46ec1ca..3b7dbe814 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml @@ -266,8 +266,8 @@ obr: unit: /1 label: After housing costs consumer price index growth reference: - - title: OBR EFO March 2026 - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ + - title: OBR EFO November 2025 + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ - title: ONS CPI weights href: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/datasets/consumerpriceinflationupdatingweightsannexatablesw1tow3 - title: ONS CPI series excluding housing costs @@ -335,8 +335,8 @@ obr: unit: /1 label: CPIH growth reference: - - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ + - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7) + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ - title: OBR long-run RPI-CPI wedge methodology (2031+ values derived from this) href: https://obr.uk/box/the-long-run-difference-between-rpi-and-cpi-inflation/ @@ -348,7 +348,7 @@ obr: 2022-01-01: 0.0987 2023-01-01: 0.1215 2024-01-01: 0.0492 - # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO March 2026, Table 1.12 + # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Table 1.12 2025-01-01: 0.0519 2026-01-01: 0.0565 2027-01-01: 0.0474 @@ -359,7 +359,7 @@ obr: unit: /1 label: Non-labour income growth reference: - - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.12) + - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.12) href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ council_tax: @@ -369,7 +369,7 @@ obr: # Outturn (2023-2024) 2023-01-01: 0.051 2024-01-01: 0.051 - # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO March 2026, Expenditure Table 4.1 + # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Expenditure Table 4.1 2025-01-01: 0.0781 2026-01-01: 0.0530 2027-01-01: 0.0579 @@ -379,7 +379,7 @@ obr: metadata: unit: /1 reference: - - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, expenditure, Table 4.1) + - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, expenditure, Table 4.1) href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ scotland: description: Growth in the level of council tax receipts in Scotland. @@ -387,7 +387,7 @@ obr: # Outturn (2023-2024) 2023-01-01: 0.052 2024-01-01: 0.001 - # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO March 2026, Expenditure Table 4.1 + # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Expenditure Table 4.1 2025-01-01: 0.0384 2026-01-01: 0.0384 2027-01-01: 0.0384 @@ -397,7 +397,7 @@ obr: metadata: unit: /1 reference: - - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, expenditure, Table 4.1) + - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, expenditure, Table 4.1) href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ wales: description: Growth in the level of council tax receipts in Wales. @@ -405,7 +405,7 @@ obr: # Outturn (2023-2024) 2023-01-01: 0.058 2024-01-01: 0.077 - # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO March 2026, Expenditure Table 4.1 + # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Expenditure Table 4.1 2025-01-01: 0.0581 2026-01-01: 0.0581 2027-01-01: 0.0581 @@ -415,7 +415,7 @@ obr: metadata: unit: /1 reference: - - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, expenditure, Table 4.1) + - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, expenditure, Table 4.1) href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ per_capita: @@ -438,7 +438,7 @@ obr: unit: /1 label: Per capita GDP growth reference: - - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.4) + - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (Table A.1, nominal GDP minus population growth) href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ mixed_income: @@ -449,7 +449,7 @@ obr: 2022-01-01: 0.0296 2023-01-01: -0.0060 2024-01-01: 0.0273 - # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO March 2026, Table 1.12 minus population growth + # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Table 1.12 minus population growth 2025-01-01: 0.0024 2026-01-01: 0.0362 2027-01-01: 0.0374 @@ -460,7 +460,7 @@ obr: unit: /1 label: Per capita mixed income growth reference: - - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.12) + - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.12) href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ non_labour_income: @@ -471,7 +471,7 @@ obr: 2022-01-01: 0.0894 2023-01-01: 0.1084 2024-01-01: 0.0385 - # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO March 2026, Table 1.12 minus population growth + # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Table 1.12 minus population growth 2025-01-01: 0.0447 2026-01-01: 0.0527 2027-01-01: 0.0437 @@ -482,7 +482,7 @@ obr: unit: /1 label: Per capita non-labour income growth reference: - - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.12) + - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.12) href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ house_prices: @@ -526,8 +526,8 @@ obr: unit: /1 label: Mortgage interest growth reference: - - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ + - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7) + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ social_rent: description: Rent year-on-year growth (CPI+1%, one year lagged). @@ -568,8 +568,8 @@ obr: unit: /1 label: Rent growth reference: - - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ + - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7) + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ ons: population: @@ -657,7 +657,7 @@ ons: reference: - title: ONS National Accounts D.41g - Households interest received (HAXV series) href: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/haxv/ukea - - title: OBR EFO March 2026 - Non-labour income growth used as proxy for 2025+ (Table 1.12) + - title: OBR EFO November 2025 - Non-labour income growth used as proxy for 2025+ (Table 1.12) href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ private_rental_prices: UNITED_KINGDOM: From 92aa2b3ee15d80b806d5e77926fa7e753ef8148d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 08:37:31 -0500 Subject: [PATCH 3/4] Update test expected values for March 2026 OBR forecasts Adjust expected values in 5 tests affected by CPI/RPI forecast changes: extended childcare entitlement, student loan interest rate, student loan repayment threshold, and two child limit payment. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 --- .../extended_childcare_entitlement.yaml | 4 ++-- .../gov/hmrc/student_loans/student_loan_interest_rate.yaml | 6 +++--- .../gov/hmrc/student_loans/student_loan_repayment.yaml | 4 ++-- .../social_security_scotland/two_child_limit_payment.yaml | 2 +- 4 files changed, 8 insertions(+), 8 deletions(-) diff --git a/policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dfe/extended_childcare_entitlement/extended_childcare_entitlement.yaml b/policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dfe/extended_childcare_entitlement/extended_childcare_entitlement.yaml index 6aea879b3..70a84c567 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dfe/extended_childcare_entitlement/extended_childcare_entitlement.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dfe/extended_childcare_entitlement/extended_childcare_entitlement.yaml @@ -203,7 +203,7 @@ members: [child1] extended_childcare_entitlement_eligible: true output: - extended_childcare_entitlement: 10011.897 + extended_childcare_entitlement: 10004.133 - name: Eligible for 30 hours - Family with multiple 2-year-olds after expansion period: 2026 @@ -219,4 +219,4 @@ members: [child1, child2] extended_childcare_entitlement_eligible: true output: - extended_childcare_entitlement: 17121.797 \ No newline at end of file + extended_childcare_entitlement: 17108.518 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/hmrc/student_loans/student_loan_interest_rate.yaml b/policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/hmrc/student_loans/student_loan_interest_rate.yaml index 861280d01..0b446bb98 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/hmrc/student_loans/student_loan_interest_rate.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/hmrc/student_loans/student_loan_interest_rate.yaml @@ -148,6 +148,6 @@ employment_income: 30_000 student_loan_plan: POSTGRADUATE output: - # Postgraduate threshold ~£21,909 (uprated from £21,000) - # 6% of (30,000 - 21,909) = 6% of 8,091 = ~485 - student_loan_repayment: 485 + # Postgraduate threshold ~£21,861 (uprated from £21,000 by RPI) + # 6% of (30,000 - 21,861) = 6% of 8,139 = ~488.34 + student_loan_repayment: 488.339 diff --git a/policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/hmrc/student_loans/student_loan_repayment.yaml b/policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/hmrc/student_loans/student_loan_repayment.yaml index fa2f44c76..1fb8b1505 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/hmrc/student_loans/student_loan_repayment.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/hmrc/student_loans/student_loan_repayment.yaml @@ -116,8 +116,8 @@ student_loan_plan: PLAN_2 output: # Threshold resumes RPI uprating from 2030 - # 9% of (40,000 - ~30,064) = 9% of ~9,936 = ~894.26 - student_loan_repayment: 894.26 + # 9% of (40,000 - ~30,061) = 9% of ~9,939 = ~894.52 + student_loan_repayment: 894.522 - name: Plan 2 - Income just below 2027 threshold period: 2027 diff --git a/policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/social_security_scotland/two_child_limit_payment.yaml b/policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/social_security_scotland/two_child_limit_payment.yaml index 0a86c0d90..0bf7a0f97 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/social_security_scotland/two_child_limit_payment.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/social_security_scotland/two_child_limit_payment.yaml @@ -347,4 +347,4 @@ region: SCOTLAND output: # Payment continues as two-child limit still in effect - two_child_limit_payment: 3635 + two_child_limit_payment: 3633.188 From 88243e016553b2ecdee9d59b1d05bfc498ba26e2 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 08:47:34 -0500 Subject: [PATCH 4/4] Revert 7 reference hrefs to November 2025 for unchanged variables These variables' values were not updated in the March 2026 OBR EFO, so their reference hrefs should point to the November 2025 source: - non_labour_income - council_tax.england - council_tax.scotland - council_tax.wales - per_capita.mixed_income - per_capita.non_labour_income - ons.household_interest_income (proxy reference) Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 --- .../gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml | 14 +++++++------- 1 file changed, 7 insertions(+), 7 deletions(-) diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml index 3b7dbe814..294d5796e 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml @@ -360,7 +360,7 @@ obr: label: Non-labour income growth reference: - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.12) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ council_tax: england: @@ -380,7 +380,7 @@ obr: unit: /1 reference: - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, expenditure, Table 4.1) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ scotland: description: Growth in the level of council tax receipts in Scotland. values: @@ -398,7 +398,7 @@ obr: unit: /1 reference: - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, expenditure, Table 4.1) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ wales: description: Growth in the level of council tax receipts in Wales. values: @@ -416,7 +416,7 @@ obr: unit: /1 reference: - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, expenditure, Table 4.1) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ per_capita: gdp: @@ -461,7 +461,7 @@ obr: label: Per capita mixed income growth reference: - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.12) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ non_labour_income: description: Per capita non-labour income year-on-year growth. @@ -483,7 +483,7 @@ obr: label: Per capita non-labour income growth reference: - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.12) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ house_prices: description: House prices year-on-year growth. @@ -658,7 +658,7 @@ ons: - title: ONS National Accounts D.41g - Households interest received (HAXV series) href: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/haxv/ukea - title: OBR EFO November 2025 - Non-labour income growth used as proxy for 2025+ (Table 1.12) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ private_rental_prices: UNITED_KINGDOM: description: Private rental prices year-on-year growth in United Kingdom.