From f7d58d8925fed2d112eb011bc5d3a57ee29a7010 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 09:10:53 -0500 Subject: [PATCH] Update remaining economic forecasts to OBR March 2026 detailed tables Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 --- ...-obr-march-2026-detailed-tables.changed.md | 1 + .../gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml | 171 +++++++++--------- 2 files changed, 87 insertions(+), 85 deletions(-) create mode 100644 changelog.d/update-obr-march-2026-detailed-tables.changed.md diff --git a/changelog.d/update-obr-march-2026-detailed-tables.changed.md b/changelog.d/update-obr-march-2026-detailed-tables.changed.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..dc15bf885 --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/update-obr-march-2026-detailed-tables.changed.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +Update remaining OBR economic forecasts to March 2026 EFO detailed tables (CPIH, rent, mortgage interest, council tax, non-labour income, mixed income, household interest income, CPI AHC). diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml index 294d5796e..fa22c3160 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml @@ -257,17 +257,18 @@ obr: 2022-01-01: 0.107 2023-01-01: 0.057 2024-01-01: 0.018 - 2025-01-01: 0.027 - 2026-01-01: 0.017 - 2027-01-01: 0.019 - 2028-01-01: 0.019 - 2029-01-01: 0.019 + 2025-01-01: 0.0266 + 2026-01-01: 0.0158 + 2027-01-01: 0.0190 + 2028-01-01: 0.0190 + 2029-01-01: 0.0190 + 2030-01-01: 0.0190 metadata: unit: /1 label: After housing costs consumer price index growth reference: - - title: OBR EFO November 2025 - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ + - title: OBR EFO March 2026 + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ - title: ONS CPI weights href: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/datasets/consumerpriceinflationupdatingweightsannexatablesw1tow3 - title: ONS CPI series excluding housing costs @@ -281,12 +282,12 @@ obr: 2023-01-01: 0.0679 2024-01-01: 0.0327 # Forecast (2025-2030) - 2025-01-01: 0.0393 - 2026-01-01: 0.0267 - 2027-01-01: 0.0215 - 2028-01-01: 0.0208 - 2029-01-01: 0.0211 - 2030-01-01: 0.0213 + 2025-01-01: 0.0388 + 2026-01-01: 0.0255 + 2027-01-01: 0.0211 + 2028-01-01: 0.0204 + 2029-01-01: 0.0209 + 2030-01-01: 0.0212 # Long-run assumptions (2031+): CPI + 0.4pp wedge for housing costs 2031-01-01: 0.0230 2032-01-01: 0.0237 @@ -335,8 +336,8 @@ obr: unit: /1 label: CPIH growth reference: - - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ + - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7) + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ - title: OBR long-run RPI-CPI wedge methodology (2031+ values derived from this) href: https://obr.uk/box/the-long-run-difference-between-rpi-and-cpi-inflation/ @@ -348,19 +349,19 @@ obr: 2022-01-01: 0.0987 2023-01-01: 0.1215 2024-01-01: 0.0492 - # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Table 1.12 - 2025-01-01: 0.0519 - 2026-01-01: 0.0565 - 2027-01-01: 0.0474 - 2028-01-01: 0.0364 - 2029-01-01: 0.0302 - 2030-01-01: 0.0292 + # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO March 2026, Table 1.12 + 2025-01-01: 0.0349 + 2026-01-01: 0.0397 + 2027-01-01: 0.0513 + 2028-01-01: 0.0350 + 2029-01-01: 0.0301 + 2030-01-01: 0.0317 metadata: unit: /1 label: Non-labour income growth reference: - - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.12) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ + - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.12) + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ council_tax: england: @@ -369,25 +370,25 @@ obr: # Outturn (2023-2024) 2023-01-01: 0.051 2024-01-01: 0.051 - # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Expenditure Table 4.1 - 2025-01-01: 0.0781 - 2026-01-01: 0.0530 - 2027-01-01: 0.0579 - 2028-01-01: 0.0565 - 2029-01-01: 0.0547 - 2030-01-01: 0.0542 + # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO March 2026, Expenditure Table 4.1 + 2025-01-01: 0.0702 + 2026-01-01: 0.0545 + 2027-01-01: 0.0605 + 2028-01-01: 0.0615 + 2029-01-01: 0.0562 + 2030-01-01: 0.0550 metadata: unit: /1 reference: - - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, expenditure, Table 4.1) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ + - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, expenditure, Table 4.1) + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ scotland: description: Growth in the level of council tax receipts in Scotland. values: # Outturn (2023-2024) 2023-01-01: 0.052 2024-01-01: 0.001 - # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Expenditure Table 4.1 + # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO March 2026, Expenditure Table 4.1 2025-01-01: 0.0384 2026-01-01: 0.0384 2027-01-01: 0.0384 @@ -397,26 +398,26 @@ obr: metadata: unit: /1 reference: - - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, expenditure, Table 4.1) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ + - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, expenditure, Table 4.1) + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ wales: description: Growth in the level of council tax receipts in Wales. values: # Outturn (2023-2024) 2023-01-01: 0.058 2024-01-01: 0.077 - # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Expenditure Table 4.1 - 2025-01-01: 0.0581 - 2026-01-01: 0.0581 - 2027-01-01: 0.0581 - 2028-01-01: 0.0581 - 2029-01-01: 0.0581 - 2030-01-01: 0.0581 + # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO March 2026, Expenditure Table 4.1 + 2025-01-01: 0.0773 + 2026-01-01: 0.0743 + 2027-01-01: 0.0743 + 2028-01-01: 0.0743 + 2029-01-01: 0.0743 + 2030-01-01: 0.0743 metadata: unit: /1 reference: - - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, expenditure, Table 4.1) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ + - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, expenditure, Table 4.1) + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ per_capita: gdp: @@ -449,19 +450,19 @@ obr: 2022-01-01: 0.0296 2023-01-01: -0.0060 2024-01-01: 0.0273 - # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Table 1.12 minus population growth - 2025-01-01: 0.0024 - 2026-01-01: 0.0362 - 2027-01-01: 0.0374 - 2028-01-01: 0.0351 - 2029-01-01: 0.0358 - 2030-01-01: 0.0364 + # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO March 2026, Table 1.12 minus population growth + 2025-01-01: 0.0069 + 2026-01-01: 0.0306 + 2027-01-01: 0.0371 + 2028-01-01: 0.0364 + 2029-01-01: 0.0353 + 2030-01-01: 0.0361 metadata: unit: /1 label: Per capita mixed income growth reference: - - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.12) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ + - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.12) + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ non_labour_income: description: Per capita non-labour income year-on-year growth. @@ -471,19 +472,19 @@ obr: 2022-01-01: 0.0894 2023-01-01: 0.1084 2024-01-01: 0.0385 - # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Table 1.12 minus population growth - 2025-01-01: 0.0447 - 2026-01-01: 0.0527 - 2027-01-01: 0.0437 - 2028-01-01: 0.0324 - 2029-01-01: 0.0258 - 2030-01-01: 0.0247 + # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO March 2026, Table 1.12 minus population growth + 2025-01-01: 0.0275 + 2026-01-01: 0.0358 + 2027-01-01: 0.0474 + 2028-01-01: 0.0309 + 2029-01-01: 0.0256 + 2030-01-01: 0.0271 metadata: unit: /1 label: Per capita non-labour income growth reference: - - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.12) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ + - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.12) + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ house_prices: description: House prices year-on-year growth. @@ -516,18 +517,18 @@ obr: 2023-01-01: 0.5224 2024-01-01: 0.2730 # Forecast (2025-2030) - 2025-01-01: 0.1098 - 2026-01-01: 0.1435 - 2027-01-01: 0.1032 - 2028-01-01: 0.0470 - 2029-01-01: 0.0466 + 2025-01-01: 0.0952 + 2026-01-01: 0.0797 + 2027-01-01: 0.1040 + 2028-01-01: 0.0476 + 2029-01-01: 0.0468 2030-01-01: 0.0553 metadata: unit: /1 label: Mortgage interest growth reference: - - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ + - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7) + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ social_rent: description: Rent year-on-year growth (CPI+1%, one year lagged). @@ -557,19 +558,19 @@ obr: 2023-01-01: 0.0575 2024-01-01: 0.0716 # Forecast (2025-2030) - 2025-01-01: 0.0546 + 2025-01-01: 0.0542 2026-01-01: 0.0334 - 2027-01-01: 0.0311 - 2028-01-01: 0.0243 - 2029-01-01: 0.0234 - 2030-01-01: 0.0254 + 2027-01-01: 0.0302 + 2028-01-01: 0.0230 + 2029-01-01: 0.0238 + 2030-01-01: 0.0258 metadata: unit: /1 label: Rent growth reference: - - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ + - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7) + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ ons: population: @@ -645,20 +646,20 @@ ons: 2023-01-01: 0.987 # 86.0/43.3 - 1 2024-01-01: 0.142 # 98.2/86.0 - 1 # Forecast: use OBR non-labour income growth as proxy (Table 1.12) - 2025-01-01: 0.0519 - 2026-01-01: 0.0565 - 2027-01-01: 0.0474 - 2028-01-01: 0.0364 - 2029-01-01: 0.0302 - 2030-01-01: 0.0292 + 2025-01-01: 0.0349 + 2026-01-01: 0.0397 + 2027-01-01: 0.0513 + 2028-01-01: 0.0350 + 2029-01-01: 0.0301 + 2030-01-01: 0.0317 metadata: unit: /1 label: Household interest income growth reference: - title: ONS National Accounts D.41g - Households interest received (HAXV series) href: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/haxv/ukea - - title: OBR EFO November 2025 - Non-labour income growth used as proxy for 2025+ (Table 1.12) - href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/ + - title: OBR EFO March 2026 - Non-labour income growth used as proxy for 2025+ (Table 1.12) + href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/ private_rental_prices: UNITED_KINGDOM: description: Private rental prices year-on-year growth in United Kingdom.