From fdeee73e06f4284046d35927dbb725dcceaf068f Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Vahid Ahmadi Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 16:40:58 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 01/27] Regenerate microsim data with policyengine-uk March 2026 OBR defaults Previous data showed zero impact because policyengine-uk 2.74.0 still had November 2025 OBR forecasts as defaults. The baseline and reform simulations were producing identical results. Regenerated all population impact data using policyengine-uk@main which now includes the March 2026 OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook parameters (merged via PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk#1512 and #1514). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 --- public/data/detailed_budgetary_impact.csv | 100 +- public/data/distributional_impact.csv | 110 +- public/data/economic_forecast.json | 32 - public/data/household_scatter.csv | 4000 ++++++++++----------- public/data/inequality.csv | 30 +- public/data/intra_decile.csv | 542 +-- public/data/metrics.csv | 346 +- public/data/winners_losers.csv | 110 +- 8 files changed, 2619 insertions(+), 2651 deletions(-) diff --git a/public/data/detailed_budgetary_impact.csv b/public/data/detailed_budgetary_impact.csv index eddd4ef..7afe079 100644 --- a/public/data/detailed_budgetary_impact.csv +++ b/public/data/detailed_budgetary_impact.csv @@ -1,51 +1,51 @@ year,program,baseline,reform,difference -2026,income_tax,303272.73899443523,303272.73899443523,0.0 -2026,national_insurance,56035.53018029651,56035.53018029651,0.0 -2026,vat,200684.99023889532,200684.99023889532,0.0 -2026,council_tax,60975.72982729077,60975.72982729077,0.0 -2026,fuel_duty,34765.63809750822,34765.63809750822,0.0 -2026,tax_credits,5406.764615242458,5406.764615242458,-0.0 -2026,universal_credit,80875.61182102392,80875.61182102392,-0.0 -2026,child_benefit,15677.099071694834,15677.099071694834,-0.0 -2026,state_pension,122276.98239907347,122276.98239907347,-0.0 -2026,pension_credit,5989.291994108764,5989.291994108764,-0.0 -2027,income_tax,318842.63694264094,318842.63694264094,0.0 -2027,national_insurance,58063.57606287163,58063.57606287163,0.0 -2027,vat,205496.36494742037,205496.36494742037,0.0 -2027,council_tax,64659.05849905342,64659.05849905342,0.0 -2027,fuel_duty,39462.0899228921,39462.0899228921,0.0 -2027,tax_credits,5558.882313274557,5558.882313274557,-0.0 -2027,universal_credit,83077.66709902306,83077.66709902306,-0.0 -2027,child_benefit,16125.300974580407,16125.300974580407,-0.0 -2027,state_pension,126142.7111801254,126142.7111801254,-0.0 -2027,pension_credit,6103.4966800892735,6103.4966800892735,-0.0 -2028,income_tax,332888.4167182199,332888.4167182199,0.0 -2028,national_insurance,58846.53796278711,58846.53796278711,0.0 -2028,vat,210527.23408144133,210527.23408144133,0.0 -2028,council_tax,68507.11337248725,68507.11337248725,0.0 -2028,fuel_duty,41970.256974364114,41970.256974364114,0.0 -2028,tax_credits,5681.531851997269,5681.531851997269,-0.0 -2028,universal_credit,85396.48175922343,85396.48175922343,-0.0 -2028,child_benefit,16516.8669624525,16516.8669624525,-0.0 -2028,state_pension,129329.04617681382,129329.04617681382,-0.0 -2028,pension_credit,6190.7437699792235,6190.7437699792235,-0.0 -2029,income_tax,347810.65010074497,347810.65010074497,0.0 -2029,national_insurance,60484.88450799108,60484.88450799108,0.0 -2029,vat,215767.21074488971,215767.21074488971,0.0 -2029,council_tax,72505.6181612071,72505.6181612071,0.0 -2029,fuel_duty,44280.64615361491,44280.64615361491,0.0 -2029,tax_credits,5811.8286665137675,5811.8286665137675,-0.0 -2029,universal_credit,87999.0821609842,87999.0821609842,-0.0 -2029,child_benefit,16927.9919284299,16927.9919284299,-0.0 -2029,state_pension,132659.48127452147,132659.48127452147,-0.0 -2029,pension_credit,6263.407463412997,6263.407463412997,-0.0 -2030,income_tax,364245.2533321321,364245.2533321321,0.0 -2030,national_insurance,62468.09505541894,62468.09505541894,0.0 -2030,vat,221072.93211309024,221072.93211309024,0.0 -2030,council_tax,76714.3507657324,76714.3507657324,0.0 -2030,fuel_duty,46687.89005494893,46687.89005494893,0.0 -2030,tax_credits,5937.397368991846,5937.397368991846,-0.0 -2030,universal_credit,89904.66771697627,89904.66771697627,-0.0 -2030,child_benefit,17351.062528444258,17351.062528444258,-0.0 -2030,state_pension,136099.19445440217,136099.19445440217,-0.0 -2030,pension_credit,5732.043683078642,5732.043683078642,-0.0 +2026,income_tax,304730.8439144392,304744.0698935997,13.225979160522462 +2026,national_insurance,55737.99965794466,56141.3191489743,403.3194910296402 +2026,vat,200835.8714179344,200835.8714179344,0.0 +2026,council_tax,60664.11190772149,60664.11190772149,0.0 +2026,fuel_duty,35463.747557224386,35463.747557224386,0.0 +2026,tax_credits,5290.852230760112,5286.707752740712,4.144478019400597 +2026,universal_credit,80892.74900119173,80867.7426383464,25.006362845321654 +2026,child_benefit,15611.400307538195,15603.84313430796,7.557173230236053 +2026,state_pension,122078.41468818983,122176.21637289779,-97.80168470796204 +2026,pension_credit,5972.874071519186,5954.92955415779,17.944517361395835 +2027,income_tax,320908.0067779534,320934.23671441426,26.22993646081543 +2027,national_insurance,58186.76532734835,57479.012494316165,-707.7528330321884 +2027,vat,205610.5477711693,205610.5477711693,0.0 +2027,council_tax,64519.435719095694,64519.435719095694,0.0 +2027,fuel_duty,40246.61442554191,40246.61442554191,0.0 +2027,tax_credits,5436.194798181148,5416.586102475047,19.60869570610237 +2027,universal_credit,82995.18245214972,82906.04219420836,89.14025794136047 +2027,child_benefit,16057.736020704735,16021.75957636995,35.97644433478546 +2027,state_pension,125938.71122687338,126143.831024713,-205.11979783961488 +2027,pension_credit,6085.320196301552,6024.0809320465605,61.23926425499153 +2028,income_tax,335134.91884455556,335164.9201421303,30.001297574768067 +2028,national_insurance,58915.746722880016,58806.409548955045,-109.3371739249649 +2028,vat,210561.63934467576,210561.63934467576,0.0 +2028,council_tax,68699.73700763391,68699.73700763391,0.0 +2028,fuel_duty,42787.86606888584,42787.86606888584,0.0 +2028,tax_credits,5555.893679060627,5534.008332033964,21.88534702666378 +2028,universal_credit,85295.01359726118,85198.50800779137,96.50558946980286 +2028,child_benefit,16447.663123018487,16407.538359263017,40.124763755470276 +2028,state_pension,129121.12650330196,129331.85101443302,-210.72451113105774 +2028,pension_credit,6174.526047702704,6108.649815220868,65.87623248183633 +2029,income_tax,350155.8273071976,350188.269292015,32.44198481738281 +2029,national_insurance,61384.56714483321,61774.167857809356,389.60071297615053 +2029,vat,215717.8752039614,215717.8752039614,0.0 +2029,council_tax,72862.3997553772,72862.3997553772,0.0 +2029,fuel_duty,45125.56573567095,45125.56573567095,0.0 +2029,tax_credits,5682.515596333218,5656.567814368341,25.947781964878082 +2029,universal_credit,87912.83786355042,87801.65622456431,111.18163898609924 +2029,child_benefit,16857.063952252585,16809.306644069908,47.75730818267822 +2029,state_pension,132446.50504959468,132663.80369090423,-217.2986413095703 +2029,pension_credit,6239.735857206298,6165.61580016285,74.12005704344749 +2030,income_tax,367081.0083849407,367114.8418567441,33.833471803405764 +2030,national_insurance,62611.38354587946,63411.14844326598,799.7648973865204 +2030,vat,221022.3838654562,221022.3838654562,0.0 +2030,council_tax,77210.71335799992,77210.71335799992,0.0 +2030,fuel_duty,47578.74239954073,47578.74239954073,0.0 +2030,tax_credits,5803.93303676049,5773.654437884992,30.278598875496865 +2030,universal_credit,89749.45900276749,89492.85746436992,256.60153839756777 +2030,child_benefit,17278.36202601888,17222.61199670249,55.75002931639099 +2030,state_pension,135881.71015803205,136105.63123261754,-223.92107458551024 +2030,pension_credit,5770.899498894896,5687.848066462216,83.05143243268108 diff --git a/public/data/distributional_impact.csv b/public/data/distributional_impact.csv index 1849005..bedbd96 100644 --- a/public/data/distributional_impact.csv +++ b/public/data/distributional_impact.csv @@ -1,56 +1,56 @@ year,decile,absolute_change,relative_change -2026,1st,0.0,0.0 -2026,2nd,0.0,0.0 -2026,3rd,0.0,0.0 -2026,4th,0.0,0.0 -2026,5th,0.0,0.0 -2026,6th,0.0,0.0 -2026,7th,0.0,0.0 -2026,8th,0.0,0.0 -2026,9th,0.0,0.0 -2026,10th,0.0,0.0 -2026,All,0.0,0.0 -2027,1st,0.0,0.0 -2027,2nd,0.0,0.0 -2027,3rd,0.0,0.0 -2027,4th,0.0,0.0 -2027,5th,0.0,0.0 -2027,6th,0.0,0.0 -2027,7th,0.0,0.0 -2027,8th,0.0,0.0 -2027,9th,0.0,0.0 -2027,10th,0.0,0.0 -2027,All,0.0,0.0 -2028,1st,0.0,0.0 -2028,2nd,0.0,0.0 -2028,3rd,0.0,0.0 -2028,4th,0.0,0.0 -2028,5th,0.0,0.0 -2028,6th,0.0,0.0 -2028,7th,0.0,0.0 -2028,8th,0.0,0.0 -2028,9th,0.0,0.0 -2028,10th,0.0,0.0 -2028,All,0.0,0.0 -2029,1st,0.0,0.0 -2029,2nd,0.0,0.0 -2029,3rd,0.0,0.0 -2029,4th,0.0,0.0 -2029,5th,0.0,0.0 -2029,6th,0.0,0.0 -2029,7th,0.0,0.0 -2029,8th,0.0,0.0 -2029,9th,0.0,0.0 -2029,10th,0.0,0.0 -2029,All,0.0,0.0 -2030,1st,0.0,0.0 -2030,2nd,0.0,0.0 -2030,3rd,0.0,0.0 -2030,4th,0.0,0.0 -2030,5th,0.0,0.0 -2030,6th,0.0,0.0 -2030,7th,0.0,0.0 -2030,8th,0.0,0.0 -2030,9th,0.0,0.0 -2030,10th,0.0,0.0 -2030,All,0.0,0.0 +2026,1st,0.8,0.004 +2026,2nd,0.91,0.003 +2026,3rd,-0.4,-0.0011 +2026,4th,-0.71,-0.0017 +2026,5th,-0.31,-0.0007 +2026,6th,-0.24,-0.0005 +2026,7th,0.12,0.0002 +2026,8th,2.27,0.0034 +2026,9th,6.03,0.0083 +2026,10th,-133.24,-0.1061 +2026,All,-12.6,-0.0233 +2027,1st,-1.86,-0.0091 +2027,2nd,-4.87,-0.0156 +2027,3rd,-7.93,-0.0212 +2027,4th,-8.27,-0.0191 +2027,5th,-8.51,-0.0183 +2027,6th,-5.5,-0.0104 +2027,7th,-8.21,-0.0145 +2027,8th,-2.83,-0.0042 +2027,9th,2.31,0.0031 +2027,10th,215.04,0.1685 +2027,All,17.32,0.0315 +2028,1st,-2.34,-0.0114 +2028,2nd,-6.29,-0.02 +2028,3rd,-9.98,-0.0261 +2028,4th,-9.5,-0.0215 +2028,5th,-11.09,-0.0234 +2028,6th,-7.13,-0.0132 +2028,7th,-11.27,-0.0196 +2028,8th,-6.48,-0.0096 +2028,9th,-6.72,-0.009 +2028,10th,45.12,0.0345 +2028,All,-2.41,-0.0043 +2029,1st,-3.38,-0.0162 +2029,2nd,-8.95,-0.0279 +2029,3rd,-13.32,-0.0344 +2029,4th,-11.85,-0.0266 +2029,5th,-13.98,-0.0289 +2029,6th,-9.44,-0.0172 +2029,7th,-13.57,-0.0233 +2029,8th,-7.53,-0.011 +2029,9th,-9.85,-0.0129 +2029,10th,-106.31,-0.0798 +2029,All,-19.66,-0.0347 +2030,1st,-11.24,-0.0536 +2030,2nd,-17.71,-0.0545 +2030,3rd,-21.49,-0.0546 +2030,4th,-19.37,-0.043 +2030,5th,-21.09,-0.0429 +2030,6th,-14.06,-0.0249 +2030,7th,-18.37,-0.0313 +2030,8th,-8.13,-0.0117 +2030,9th,-5.89,-0.0076 +2030,10th,-244.06,-0.1793 +2030,All,-38.21,-0.0663 diff --git a/public/data/economic_forecast.json b/public/data/economic_forecast.json index bc81904..3b1ba5a 100644 --- a/public/data/economic_forecast.json +++ b/public/data/economic_forecast.json @@ -127,38 +127,6 @@ "change": 0.0 } ], - "per_capita_gdp": [ - { - "year": 2026, - "previous": 3.3, - "updated": 2.9, - "change": -0.4 - }, - { - "year": 2027, - "previous": 3.3, - "updated": 3.2, - "change": -0.1 - }, - { - "year": 2028, - "previous": 3.0, - "updated": 3.1, - "change": 0.1 - }, - { - "year": 2029, - "previous": 2.9, - "updated": 3.0, - "change": 0.1 - }, - { - "year": 2030, - "previous": 3.1, - "updated": 3.1, - "change": 0.0 - } - ], "social_rent": [ { "year": 2026, diff --git a/public/data/household_scatter.csv b/public/data/household_scatter.csv index a5a3f5e..edfa3a7 100644 --- a/public/data/household_scatter.csv +++ b/public/data/household_scatter.csv @@ -1,2001 +1,2001 @@ baseline_income,net_impact,decile -57901.438,0.0,8 -30429.379,0.0,5 -43550.645,0.0,2 -48841.164,0.0,10 -86206.234,0.0,9 -74879.7,0.0,7 -45160.055,0.0,1 -75194.88,0.0,4 -92447.03,0.0,9 -54633.02,0.0,7 -73236.43,0.0,8 -50876.637,0.0,6 -43164.137,0.0,6 -107962.72,0.0,10 -95220.29,0.0,9 -15290.207,0.0,1 -43781.637,0.0,3 -9261.941,0.0,2 -27965.758,0.0,3 -11037.917,0.0,1 -69779.125,0.0,8 -15430.826,0.0,1 -25078.39,0.0,3 --796.34814,0.0,-1 -50352.133,0.0,8 -53257.047,0.0,3 -47152.547,0.0,8 -32330.23,0.0,2 -38443.67,0.0,2 -43397.953,0.0,6 -46946.02,0.0,5 -28424.936,0.0,5 -82183.85,0.0,8 -4880.0757,0.0,1 -29607.979,0.0,2 -49891.82,0.0,2 -20098.459,0.0,1 -15312.896,0.0,2 -49261.23,0.0,3 -61895.61,0.0,5 -59090.16,0.0,3 -19725.39,0.0,2 -34982.48,0.0,1 -114006.336,0.0,5 -41474.133,0.0,3 -49652.5,0.0,5 -25810.89,0.0,4 -70181.16,0.0,5 -60145.53,0.0,6 -32276.617,0.0,1 -34822.67,0.0,6 -24770.506,0.0,3 -31985.926,0.0,3 -44386.258,0.0,5 --3224.627,0.0,4 -26843.2,0.0,2 -45969.492,0.0,2 -47011.023,0.0,2 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+43308.406,-8.125,4 diff --git a/public/data/inequality.csv b/public/data/inequality.csv index 26d4759..15edbb0 100644 --- a/public/data/inequality.csv +++ b/public/data/inequality.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ year,metric,baseline,reform -2026,gini,0.28264225403383014,0.28264225403383014 -2026,top_10_pct_share,0.24338873248534484,0.24338873248534484 -2026,top_1_pct_share,0.06421276046945473,0.06421276046945473 -2027,gini,0.2839566166296492,0.2839566166296492 -2027,top_10_pct_share,0.24112361610547406,0.24112361610547406 -2027,top_1_pct_share,0.06498068132903656,0.06498068132903656 -2028,gini,0.28544831196233966,0.28544831196233966 -2028,top_10_pct_share,0.24133922403379313,0.24133922403379313 -2028,top_1_pct_share,0.06508929940412486,0.06508929940412486 -2029,gini,0.28668073147264467,0.28668073147264467 -2029,top_10_pct_share,0.24241208304900427,0.24241208304900427 -2029,top_1_pct_share,0.0658162585346852,0.0658162585346852 -2030,gini,0.2884374666524972,0.2884374666524972 -2030,top_10_pct_share,0.24347194378147255,0.24347194378147255 -2030,top_1_pct_share,0.06643822861764408,0.06643822861764408 +2026,gini,0.28291195949308817,0.282743616786075 +2026,top_10_pct_share,0.24028316663722432,0.24014494548121476 +2026,top_1_pct_share,0.06448224582651775,0.06423838226543441 +2027,gini,0.2842003744929869,0.2845518649059099 +2027,top_10_pct_share,0.24025349142671878,0.2405346533086001 +2027,top_1_pct_share,0.06382009081093477,0.06412096507564989 +2028,gini,0.28588488792559646,0.2860221529330154 +2028,top_10_pct_share,0.2425271346494153,0.24252668996899426 +2028,top_1_pct_share,0.06496273311571045,0.06503612888528176 +2029,gini,0.2868648845495297,0.2867903987629185 +2029,top_10_pct_share,0.24169740521303365,0.24152175080891358 +2029,top_1_pct_share,0.06443141788046869,0.06437224754283671 +2030,gini,0.2891819010569601,0.2890009249391396 +2030,top_10_pct_share,0.2432481679345802,0.24287518823126414 +2030,top_1_pct_share,0.06536563048246652,0.06506871296817356 diff --git a/public/data/intra_decile.csv b/public/data/intra_decile.csv index f75698d..28525e0 100644 --- a/public/data/intra_decile.csv +++ b/public/data/intra_decile.csv @@ -1,276 +1,276 @@ year,decile,outcome,share -2026,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2026,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2026,1st,No change,1.0 -2026,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2026,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2026,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2026,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2026,2nd,No change,1.0 -2026,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2026,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2026,3rd,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2026,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2026,3rd,No change,1.0 -2026,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2026,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2026,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2026,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2026,4th,No change,1.0 -2026,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2026,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2026,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2026,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2026,5th,No change,1.0 -2026,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2026,5th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2026,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2026,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2026,6th,No change,1.0 -2026,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2026,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2026,7th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2026,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2026,7th,No change,1.0 -2026,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2026,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2026,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2026,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2026,8th,No change,1.0 -2026,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2026,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 +2026,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.003588456128435063 +2026,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.0040980518038138385 +2026,1st,No change,0.9477600002451908 +2026,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.04316734269823038 +2026,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0013861491243300102 +2026,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.0014519814345184962 +2026,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.00152994179735113 +2026,2nd,No change,0.9763020334870605 +2026,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.019278491166723834 +2026,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.0014375521143460287 +2026,3rd,Lose more than 5%,1.134064713466854e-05 +2026,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.0015791426335324097 +2026,3rd,No change,0.9851807796384523 +2026,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.010861547930898451 +2026,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0023671891499821365 +2026,4th,Lose more than 5%,1.352600574963601e-05 +2026,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.0003390258063541088 +2026,4th,No change,0.997294759099829 +2026,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.0015196415025011908 +2026,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0008330475855660725 +2026,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.0051356091973205975 +2026,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.0009182962414090315 +2026,5th,No change,0.9916329829786502 +2026,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.0022977545785939444 +2026,5th,Gain more than 5%,1.5357004026221944e-05 +2026,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.0001034603029005416 +2026,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.0003948357108072325 +2026,6th,No change,0.9970526853233909 +2026,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.0022032321426259088 +2026,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.0002457865202754973 +2026,7th,Lose more than 5%,0.006701531753188732 +2026,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.00020084146290064484 +2026,7th,No change,0.9872816377986482 +2026,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.005649270609415134 +2026,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0001667183758472417 +2026,8th,Lose more than 5%,7.885230298477537e-05 +2026,8th,Lose less than 5%,1.600165143458112e-05 +2026,8th,No change,0.9897843353128988 +2026,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.009524639355917736 +2026,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0005961713767640827 2026,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 2026,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2026,9th,No change,1.0 -2026,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2026,9th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2026,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 +2026,9th,No change,0.9861350878257589 +2026,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.013862308570134794 +2026,9th,Gain more than 5%,2.6036041063458904e-06 +2026,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.005089949299462445 2026,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2026,10th,No change,1.0 -2026,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2026,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2026,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2026,All,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2026,All,No change,1.0 -2026,All,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2026,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2027,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2027,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2027,1st,No change,1.0 -2027,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2027,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2027,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2027,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2027,2nd,No change,1.0 -2027,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2027,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2027,3rd,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2027,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2027,3rd,No change,1.0 -2027,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2027,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2027,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2027,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2027,4th,No change,1.0 -2027,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2027,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2027,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2027,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2027,5th,No change,1.0 -2027,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2027,5th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2027,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2027,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2027,6th,No change,1.0 -2027,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2027,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2027,7th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2027,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2027,7th,No change,1.0 -2027,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2027,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2027,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2027,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2027,8th,No change,1.0 -2027,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2027,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 +2026,10th,No change,0.956282643195625 +2026,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.03236474862711772 +2026,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.006262658877794868 +2026,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0022174707071694957 +2026,All,Lose less than 5%,0.0009076137107602977 +2026,All,No change,0.9814706944905505 +2026,All,Gain less than 5%,0.014072897718215908 +2026,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0013313233733038506 +2027,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.0039047779593303724 +2027,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.2910341384393943 +2027,1st,No change,0.5225717572364299 +2027,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.1811943936550268 +2027,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0012949327098185877 +2027,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.0014665986514748879 +2027,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.37947893500922103 +2027,2nd,No change,0.44241518271432184 +2027,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.17519080978879928 +2027,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.0014484738361829942 +2027,3rd,Lose more than 5%,1.1377997708996649e-05 +2027,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.32037457302116984 +2027,3rd,No change,0.5684511027483009 +2027,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.10859031160768223 +2027,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.002572634625138189 +2027,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.0002463074954584472 +2027,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.2681531522530694 +2027,4th,No change,0.6518901302254578 +2027,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.07910469603871159 +2027,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0006057139873026753 +2027,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.005143827901174483 +2027,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.2235366319021381 +2027,5th,No change,0.7288277378236272 +2027,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.04248061406204653 +2027,5th,Gain more than 5%,1.1188311013705845e-05 +2027,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.00010187716925605217 +2027,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.12199957542685184 +2027,6th,No change,0.8433435425804002 +2027,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.03429005089595294 +2027,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.00026495392753897744 +2027,7th,Lose more than 5%,0.00020482778459988786 +2027,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.14020264919276448 +2027,7th,No change,0.8381395583200397 +2027,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.02128546277818536 +2027,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.00016750192441054355 +2027,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.0064861918409962315 +2027,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.06420511190322528 +2027,8th,No change,0.9167701951809388 +2027,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.01194587718532085 +2027,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0005926238895187958 2027,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2027,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2027,9th,No change,1.0 -2027,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2027,9th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2027,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2027,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2027,10th,No change,1.0 -2027,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2027,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2027,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2027,All,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2027,All,No change,1.0 -2027,All,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2027,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2028,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2028,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2028,1st,No change,1.0 -2028,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2028,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2028,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2028,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2028,2nd,No change,1.0 -2028,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2028,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2028,3rd,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2028,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2028,3rd,No change,1.0 -2028,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2028,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2028,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2028,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2028,4th,No change,1.0 -2028,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2028,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2028,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2028,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2028,5th,No change,1.0 -2028,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2028,5th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2028,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2028,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2028,6th,No change,1.0 -2028,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2028,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2028,7th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2028,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2028,7th,No change,1.0 -2028,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2028,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2028,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2028,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2028,8th,No change,1.0 -2028,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2028,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2028,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2028,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2028,9th,No change,1.0 -2028,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2028,9th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2028,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2028,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2028,10th,No change,1.0 -2028,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2028,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2028,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2028,All,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2028,All,No change,1.0 -2028,All,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2028,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2029,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2029,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2029,1st,No change,1.0 -2029,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2029,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2029,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2029,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2029,2nd,No change,1.0 -2029,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2029,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2029,3rd,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2029,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2029,3rd,No change,1.0 -2029,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2029,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2029,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2029,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2029,4th,No change,1.0 -2029,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2029,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2029,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2029,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2029,5th,No change,1.0 -2029,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2029,5th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2029,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2029,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2029,6th,No change,1.0 -2029,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2029,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2029,7th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2029,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2029,7th,No change,1.0 -2029,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2029,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2029,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2029,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2029,8th,No change,1.0 -2029,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2029,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2029,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2029,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2029,9th,No change,1.0 -2029,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2029,9th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2029,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2029,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2029,10th,No change,1.0 -2029,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2029,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2029,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2029,All,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2029,All,No change,1.0 -2029,All,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2029,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2030,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2030,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2030,1st,No change,1.0 -2030,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2030,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2030,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2030,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2030,2nd,No change,1.0 -2030,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2030,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2030,3rd,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2030,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2030,3rd,No change,1.0 -2030,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2030,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2030,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2030,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2030,4th,No change,1.0 -2030,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2030,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2030,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2030,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2030,5th,No change,1.0 -2030,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2030,5th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2030,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2030,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2030,6th,No change,1.0 -2030,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2030,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2030,7th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2030,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2030,7th,No change,1.0 -2030,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2030,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2030,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2030,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2030,8th,No change,1.0 -2030,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2030,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2030,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2030,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2030,9th,No change,1.0 -2030,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2030,9th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2030,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2030,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2030,10th,No change,1.0 -2030,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2030,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2030,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2030,All,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2030,All,No change,1.0 -2030,All,Gain less than 5%,0.0 -2030,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0 +2027,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.02213026137145353 +2027,9th,No change,0.9708726052694878 +2027,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.006994520858798827 +2027,9th,Gain more than 5%,2.6125002598258946e-06 +2027,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.0002697160729275004 +2027,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.029889163707232897 +2027,10th,No change,0.951680591728465 +2027,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.013175523493108847 +2027,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.004985004998265785 +2027,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0017835502872926858 +2027,All,Lose less than 5%,0.18610041922265208 +2027,All,No change,0.743496240382747 +2027,All,Gain less than 5%,0.06742522603636332 +2027,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0011945640709450079 +2028,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.00412615585662092 +2028,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.29299780165107403 +2028,1st,No change,0.5177895473827401 +2028,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.18379174683628424 +2028,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0012947482732808325 +2028,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.001672931242976737 +2028,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.39543962306691377 +2028,2nd,No change,0.42651593403508303 +2028,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.1749127173157391 +2028,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.0014587943392874113 +2028,3rd,Lose more than 5%,2.614464940352919e-05 +2028,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.3355061279825 +2028,3rd,No change,0.5563156035673287 +2028,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.10581208065241922 +2028,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0023400431483486094 +2028,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.00028368168594097105 +2028,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.2628442719683398 +2028,4th,No change,0.6556856008148754 +2028,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.08056821953118709 +2028,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0006182259996566861 +2028,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.005200697070092856 +2028,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.2622321371414398 +2028,5th,No change,0.6906965421761894 +2028,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.04185945373910528 +2028,5th,Gain more than 5%,1.1169873172618614e-05 +2028,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.0001996102037046133 +2028,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.13832375707947284 +2028,6th,No change,0.8275591119081064 +2028,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.0334675886594447 +2028,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.00044993214927159113 +2028,7th,Lose more than 5%,1.4182604033877353e-05 +2028,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.1532502544217765 +2028,7th,No change,0.8263613520803271 +2028,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.019506957833639222 +2028,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0008672530602232108 +2028,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.0065641998140156645 +2028,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.058988756458410244 +2028,8th,No change,0.9272874196375103 +2028,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.006559872854241127 +2028,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0005997512358227571 +2028,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.001615779841715802 +2028,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.04824553204862797 +2028,9th,No change,0.9488814156128869 +2028,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.0009980747419685947 +2028,9th,Gain more than 5%,0.0002591977548005689 +2028,10th,Lose more than 5%,9.102661270972437e-05 +2028,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.04716796900677017 +2028,10th,No change,0.9418774892437634 +2028,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.004699751103663274 +2028,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.006163764033093482 +2028,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0019794409581214696 +2028,All,Lose less than 5%,0.19949962308253252 +2028,All,No change,0.7318970016458811 +2028,All,Gain less than 5%,0.06521764632676917 +2028,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0014062879866957767 +2029,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.00413630505008607 +2029,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.2947764189908315 +2029,1st,No change,0.5097619563136442 +2029,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.18991709447803665 +2029,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.001408225167401707 +2029,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.0016677495436202522 +2029,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.4305058519765534 +2029,2nd,No change,0.39125865548147387 +2029,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.17508474288307024 +2029,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.0014830001152822216 +2029,3rd,Lose more than 5%,3.8900068363024575e-05 +2029,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.3585854820377803 +2029,3rd,No change,0.5366814780685879 +2029,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.10237172431334343 +2029,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0023224155119252977 +2029,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.00036032579652245904 +2029,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.2749315598232694 +2029,4th,No change,0.6415720203645121 +2029,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.082519339283524 +2029,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0006167547321721812 +2029,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.00528210160821089 +2029,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.2767344344623371 +2029,5th,No change,0.675180827967563 +2029,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.042482268546099204 +2029,5th,Gain more than 5%,0.0003203674157897475 +2029,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.00019957177357058167 +2029,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.16115169643166669 +2029,6th,No change,0.8051892538229417 +2029,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.033009687935410766 +2029,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.00044979003641029973 +2029,7th,Lose more than 5%,1.410655115725516e-05 +2029,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.1552917192619132 +2029,7th,No change,0.8249423233048077 +2029,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.01886764021503835 +2029,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0008842106670835449 +2029,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.006519813036798466 +2029,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.062061948517701256 +2029,8th,No change,0.9174819464872851 +2029,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.013340596213319511 +2029,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0005956957448956867 +2029,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.001622508194117665 +2029,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.05858450881835301 +2029,9th,No change,0.9379172342671173 +2029,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.0016154716268403577 +2029,9th,Gain more than 5%,0.0002602770935717622 +2029,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.007733405936848057 +2029,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.05621531168835989 +2029,10th,No change,0.9349590854045848 +2029,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.0010723121198103595 +2029,10th,Gain more than 5%,1.988485039683772e-05 +2029,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0027574787559294716 +2029,All,Lose less than 5%,0.21288389320087658 +2029,All,No change,0.7174944781482517 +2029,All,Gain less than 5%,0.0660280877614493 +2029,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0008360621334929286 +2030,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.0067005225549827685 +2030,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.4519116964321259 +2030,1st,No change,0.3403410303560371 +2030,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.19914129099618627 +2030,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0019054596606678013 +2030,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.0003184392090771974 +2030,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.4695644925821656 +2030,2nd,No change,0.3572827558234632 +2030,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.17134022669472834 +2030,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.001494085690565774 +2030,3rd,Lose more than 5%,4.5139820381744196e-05 +2030,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.43977712629951793 +2030,3rd,No change,0.45444768621332776 +2030,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.10336671372892235 +2030,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0023633339378501986 +2030,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.0008249493751393884 +2030,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.31039826589588787 +2030,4th,No change,0.6037219486037311 +2030,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.08420715067676277 +2030,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0008476854484788901 +2030,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.005283008574863911 +2030,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.2827558132059203 +2030,5th,No change,0.6679601735925388 +2030,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.04388298646664175 +2030,5th,Gain more than 5%,0.00011801816003505972 +2030,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.0002017735406128133 +2030,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.17185140334571772 +2030,6th,No change,0.7927301521250152 +2030,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.03476644803878442 +2030,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.00045022294986978115 +2030,7th,Lose more than 5%,1.4164076802252751e-05 +2030,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.16597138341165873 +2030,7th,No change,0.8090797528725262 +2030,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.024011558128535303 +2030,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0009231415104777902 +2030,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.00655850979215556 +2030,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.07115092361187257 +2030,8th,No change,0.900739030833651 +2030,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.020765658808700686 +2030,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0007858769536201272 +2030,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.0016313135207037773 +2030,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.05916048874876685 +2030,9th,No change,0.9293155195296747 +2030,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.009630988590337789 +2030,9th,Gain more than 5%,0.00026168961051688385 +2030,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.005104540968884547 +2030,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.03264172216273909 +2030,10th,No change,0.9525290576910078 +2030,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.009408982255817662 +2030,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.00031569692155085025 +2030,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0026682361433603956 +2030,All,Lose less than 5%,0.24551833156963726 +2030,All,No change,0.6808147107640974 +2030,All,Gain less than 5%,0.07005220043854174 +2030,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0009465210843633158 diff --git a/public/data/metrics.csv b/public/data/metrics.csv index aee647a..bc631f5 100644 --- a/public/data/metrics.csv +++ b/public/data/metrics.csv @@ -1,181 +1,181 @@ year,metric,value -2026,abs_bhc_poverty_rate_baseline,9.107179 -2026,abs_bhc_poverty_rate_reform,9.107179 -2026,abs_bhc_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2026,abs_bhc_child_poverty_rate_baseline,10.612591 -2026,abs_bhc_child_poverty_rate_reform,10.612591 -2026,abs_bhc_child_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2026,abs_bhc_deep_poverty_rate_baseline,1.265598 -2026,abs_bhc_deep_poverty_rate_reform,1.265598 -2026,abs_bhc_deep_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2026,abs_bhc_child_deep_poverty_rate_baseline,1.536504 -2026,abs_bhc_child_deep_poverty_rate_reform,1.536504 -2026,abs_bhc_child_deep_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2026,rel_bhc_poverty_rate_baseline,12.409129 -2026,rel_bhc_poverty_rate_reform,12.409129 -2026,rel_bhc_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2026,rel_bhc_child_poverty_rate_baseline,15.750032 -2026,rel_bhc_child_poverty_rate_reform,15.750032 +2026,abs_bhc_poverty_rate_baseline,9.222137 +2026,abs_bhc_poverty_rate_reform,9.166862 +2026,abs_bhc_poverty_rate_change,-0.055275 +2026,abs_bhc_child_poverty_rate_baseline,10.791318 +2026,abs_bhc_child_poverty_rate_reform,10.768082 +2026,abs_bhc_child_poverty_rate_change,-0.023237 +2026,abs_bhc_deep_poverty_rate_baseline,1.290945 +2026,abs_bhc_deep_poverty_rate_reform,1.290928 +2026,abs_bhc_deep_poverty_rate_change,-1.6e-05 +2026,abs_bhc_child_deep_poverty_rate_baseline,1.588282 +2026,abs_bhc_child_deep_poverty_rate_reform,1.588244 +2026,abs_bhc_child_deep_poverty_rate_change,-3.8e-05 +2026,rel_bhc_poverty_rate_baseline,12.401478 +2026,rel_bhc_poverty_rate_reform,12.396188 +2026,rel_bhc_poverty_rate_change,-0.00529 +2026,rel_bhc_child_poverty_rate_baseline,15.546108 +2026,rel_bhc_child_poverty_rate_reform,15.546108 2026,rel_bhc_child_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2026,abs_ahc_poverty_rate_baseline,13.35463 -2026,abs_ahc_poverty_rate_reform,13.35463 -2026,abs_ahc_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2026,abs_ahc_child_poverty_rate_baseline,18.770527 -2026,abs_ahc_child_poverty_rate_reform,18.770527 -2026,abs_ahc_child_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2026,abs_ahc_deep_poverty_rate_baseline,4.232197 -2026,abs_ahc_deep_poverty_rate_reform,4.232197 +2026,abs_ahc_poverty_rate_baseline,13.336021 +2026,abs_ahc_poverty_rate_reform,13.313305 +2026,abs_ahc_poverty_rate_change,-0.022716 +2026,abs_ahc_child_poverty_rate_baseline,18.80842 +2026,abs_ahc_child_poverty_rate_reform,18.771961 +2026,abs_ahc_child_poverty_rate_change,-0.03646 +2026,abs_ahc_deep_poverty_rate_baseline,4.239491 +2026,abs_ahc_deep_poverty_rate_reform,4.239491 2026,abs_ahc_deep_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2026,abs_ahc_child_deep_poverty_rate_baseline,4.181257 -2026,abs_ahc_child_deep_poverty_rate_reform,4.181257 +2026,abs_ahc_child_deep_poverty_rate_baseline,4.296351 +2026,abs_ahc_child_deep_poverty_rate_reform,4.296351 2026,abs_ahc_child_deep_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2026,rel_ahc_poverty_rate_baseline,17.521589 -2026,rel_ahc_poverty_rate_reform,17.521589 -2026,rel_ahc_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2026,rel_ahc_child_poverty_rate_baseline,23.939609 -2026,rel_ahc_child_poverty_rate_reform,23.939609 +2026,rel_ahc_poverty_rate_baseline,17.598707 +2026,rel_ahc_poverty_rate_reform,17.598707 +2026,rel_ahc_poverty_rate_change,-0.0 +2026,rel_ahc_child_poverty_rate_baseline,24.184121 +2026,rel_ahc_child_poverty_rate_reform,24.184121 2026,rel_ahc_child_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2027,abs_bhc_poverty_rate_baseline,9.04952 -2027,abs_bhc_poverty_rate_reform,9.04952 -2027,abs_bhc_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2027,abs_bhc_child_poverty_rate_baseline,10.518701 -2027,abs_bhc_child_poverty_rate_reform,10.518701 -2027,abs_bhc_child_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2027,abs_bhc_deep_poverty_rate_baseline,1.345104 -2027,abs_bhc_deep_poverty_rate_reform,1.345104 -2027,abs_bhc_deep_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2027,abs_bhc_child_deep_poverty_rate_baseline,1.679116 -2027,abs_bhc_child_deep_poverty_rate_reform,1.679116 -2027,abs_bhc_child_deep_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2027,rel_bhc_poverty_rate_baseline,12.388543 -2027,rel_bhc_poverty_rate_reform,12.388543 -2027,rel_bhc_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2027,rel_bhc_child_poverty_rate_baseline,15.717565 -2027,rel_bhc_child_poverty_rate_reform,15.717565 -2027,rel_bhc_child_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2027,abs_ahc_poverty_rate_baseline,13.41725 -2027,abs_ahc_poverty_rate_reform,13.41725 -2027,abs_ahc_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2027,abs_ahc_child_poverty_rate_baseline,18.833424 -2027,abs_ahc_child_poverty_rate_reform,18.833424 -2027,abs_ahc_child_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2027,abs_ahc_deep_poverty_rate_baseline,4.339874 -2027,abs_ahc_deep_poverty_rate_reform,4.339874 -2027,abs_ahc_deep_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2027,abs_ahc_child_deep_poverty_rate_baseline,4.527997 -2027,abs_ahc_child_deep_poverty_rate_reform,4.527997 +2027,abs_bhc_poverty_rate_baseline,9.14579 +2027,abs_bhc_poverty_rate_reform,9.134649 +2027,abs_bhc_poverty_rate_change,-0.011141 +2027,abs_bhc_child_poverty_rate_baseline,10.692338 +2027,abs_bhc_child_poverty_rate_reform,10.6865 +2027,abs_bhc_child_poverty_rate_change,-0.005838 +2027,abs_bhc_deep_poverty_rate_baseline,1.37949 +2027,abs_bhc_deep_poverty_rate_reform,1.366491 +2027,abs_bhc_deep_poverty_rate_change,-0.012999 +2027,abs_bhc_child_deep_poverty_rate_baseline,1.736512 +2027,abs_bhc_child_deep_poverty_rate_reform,1.716501 +2027,abs_bhc_child_deep_poverty_rate_change,-0.020011 +2027,rel_bhc_poverty_rate_baseline,12.388137 +2027,rel_bhc_poverty_rate_reform,12.387444 +2027,rel_bhc_poverty_rate_change,-0.000693 +2027,rel_bhc_child_poverty_rate_baseline,15.531233 +2027,rel_bhc_child_poverty_rate_reform,15.531238 +2027,rel_bhc_child_poverty_rate_change,5e-06 +2027,abs_ahc_poverty_rate_baseline,13.571583 +2027,abs_ahc_poverty_rate_reform,13.528316 +2027,abs_ahc_poverty_rate_change,-0.043267 +2027,abs_ahc_child_poverty_rate_baseline,19.429681 +2027,abs_ahc_child_poverty_rate_reform,19.406092 +2027,abs_ahc_child_poverty_rate_change,-0.023589 +2027,abs_ahc_deep_poverty_rate_baseline,4.334287 +2027,abs_ahc_deep_poverty_rate_reform,4.333836 +2027,abs_ahc_deep_poverty_rate_change,-0.000451 +2027,abs_ahc_child_deep_poverty_rate_baseline,4.600287 +2027,abs_ahc_child_deep_poverty_rate_reform,4.600287 2027,abs_ahc_child_deep_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2027,rel_ahc_poverty_rate_baseline,17.747913 -2027,rel_ahc_poverty_rate_reform,17.747913 -2027,rel_ahc_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2027,rel_ahc_child_poverty_rate_baseline,24.353597 -2027,rel_ahc_child_poverty_rate_reform,24.353597 -2027,rel_ahc_child_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2028,abs_bhc_poverty_rate_baseline,9.069557 -2028,abs_bhc_poverty_rate_reform,9.069557 -2028,abs_bhc_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2028,abs_bhc_child_poverty_rate_baseline,10.595411 -2028,abs_bhc_child_poverty_rate_reform,10.595411 -2028,abs_bhc_child_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2028,abs_bhc_deep_poverty_rate_baseline,1.347582 -2028,abs_bhc_deep_poverty_rate_reform,1.347582 -2028,abs_bhc_deep_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2028,abs_bhc_child_deep_poverty_rate_baseline,1.678712 -2028,abs_bhc_child_deep_poverty_rate_reform,1.678712 -2028,abs_bhc_child_deep_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2028,rel_bhc_poverty_rate_baseline,12.194376 -2028,rel_bhc_poverty_rate_reform,12.194376 -2028,rel_bhc_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2028,rel_bhc_child_poverty_rate_baseline,15.405494 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+2029,abs_bhc_child_deep_poverty_rate_reform,1.708537 2029,abs_bhc_child_deep_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2029,rel_bhc_poverty_rate_baseline,12.203281 -2029,rel_bhc_poverty_rate_reform,12.203281 -2029,rel_bhc_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2029,rel_bhc_child_poverty_rate_baseline,15.401173 -2029,rel_bhc_child_poverty_rate_reform,15.401173 -2029,rel_bhc_child_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2029,abs_ahc_poverty_rate_baseline,13.481937 -2029,abs_ahc_poverty_rate_reform,13.481937 -2029,abs_ahc_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2029,abs_ahc_child_poverty_rate_baseline,18.870106 -2029,abs_ahc_child_poverty_rate_reform,18.870106 -2029,abs_ahc_child_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2029,abs_ahc_deep_poverty_rate_baseline,4.504271 -2029,abs_ahc_deep_poverty_rate_reform,4.504271 -2029,abs_ahc_deep_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2029,abs_ahc_child_deep_poverty_rate_baseline,4.941954 -2029,abs_ahc_child_deep_poverty_rate_reform,4.941954 -2029,abs_ahc_child_deep_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2029,rel_ahc_poverty_rate_baseline,17.974877 -2029,rel_ahc_poverty_rate_reform,17.974877 -2029,rel_ahc_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2029,rel_ahc_child_poverty_rate_baseline,24.827236 -2029,rel_ahc_child_poverty_rate_reform,24.827236 -2029,rel_ahc_child_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2030,abs_bhc_poverty_rate_baseline,9.209479 -2030,abs_bhc_poverty_rate_reform,9.209479 -2030,abs_bhc_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2030,abs_bhc_child_poverty_rate_baseline,10.826593 -2030,abs_bhc_child_poverty_rate_reform,10.826593 -2030,abs_bhc_child_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2030,abs_bhc_deep_poverty_rate_baseline,1.397992 -2030,abs_bhc_deep_poverty_rate_reform,1.397992 -2030,abs_bhc_deep_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2030,abs_bhc_child_deep_poverty_rate_baseline,1.75742 -2030,abs_bhc_child_deep_poverty_rate_reform,1.75742 -2030,abs_bhc_child_deep_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2030,rel_bhc_poverty_rate_baseline,12.260051 -2030,rel_bhc_poverty_rate_reform,12.260051 -2030,rel_bhc_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2030,rel_bhc_child_poverty_rate_baseline,15.182422 -2030,rel_bhc_child_poverty_rate_reform,15.182422 -2030,rel_bhc_child_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2030,abs_ahc_poverty_rate_baseline,13.741446 -2030,abs_ahc_poverty_rate_reform,13.741446 -2030,abs_ahc_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2030,abs_ahc_child_poverty_rate_baseline,19.021678 -2030,abs_ahc_child_poverty_rate_reform,19.021678 -2030,abs_ahc_child_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2030,abs_ahc_deep_poverty_rate_baseline,4.791753 -2030,abs_ahc_deep_poverty_rate_reform,4.791753 -2030,abs_ahc_deep_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2030,abs_ahc_child_deep_poverty_rate_baseline,5.308959 -2030,abs_ahc_child_deep_poverty_rate_reform,5.308959 -2030,abs_ahc_child_deep_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2030,rel_ahc_poverty_rate_baseline,18.196063 -2030,rel_ahc_poverty_rate_reform,18.196063 -2030,rel_ahc_poverty_rate_change,0.0 -2030,rel_ahc_child_poverty_rate_baseline,25.171583 -2030,rel_ahc_child_poverty_rate_reform,25.171583 -2030,rel_ahc_child_poverty_rate_change,0.0 +2029,rel_bhc_poverty_rate_baseline,12.19964 +2029,rel_bhc_poverty_rate_reform,12.207019 +2029,rel_bhc_poverty_rate_change,0.007379 +2029,rel_bhc_child_poverty_rate_baseline,15.16929 +2029,rel_bhc_child_poverty_rate_reform,15.193224 +2029,rel_bhc_child_poverty_rate_change,0.023934 +2029,abs_ahc_poverty_rate_baseline,13.655983 +2029,abs_ahc_poverty_rate_reform,13.499908 +2029,abs_ahc_poverty_rate_change,-0.156076 +2029,abs_ahc_child_poverty_rate_baseline,19.49579 +2029,abs_ahc_child_poverty_rate_reform,19.005252 +2029,abs_ahc_child_poverty_rate_change,-0.490538 +2029,abs_ahc_deep_poverty_rate_baseline,4.48269 +2029,abs_ahc_deep_poverty_rate_reform,4.479853 +2029,abs_ahc_deep_poverty_rate_change,-0.002837 +2029,abs_ahc_child_deep_poverty_rate_baseline,5.036375 +2029,abs_ahc_child_deep_poverty_rate_reform,5.033669 +2029,abs_ahc_child_deep_poverty_rate_change,-0.002706 +2029,rel_ahc_poverty_rate_baseline,18.000178 +2029,rel_ahc_poverty_rate_reform,18.029069 +2029,rel_ahc_poverty_rate_change,0.028891 +2029,rel_ahc_child_poverty_rate_baseline,24.891185 +2029,rel_ahc_child_poverty_rate_reform,24.974945 +2029,rel_ahc_child_poverty_rate_change,0.08376 +2030,abs_bhc_poverty_rate_baseline,9.266874 +2030,abs_bhc_poverty_rate_reform,9.221526 +2030,abs_bhc_poverty_rate_change,-0.045347 +2030,abs_bhc_child_poverty_rate_baseline,10.902006 +2030,abs_bhc_child_poverty_rate_reform,10.862052 +2030,abs_bhc_child_poverty_rate_change,-0.039954 +2030,abs_bhc_deep_poverty_rate_baseline,1.451016 +2030,abs_bhc_deep_poverty_rate_reform,1.446456 +2030,abs_bhc_deep_poverty_rate_change,-0.00456 +2030,abs_bhc_child_deep_poverty_rate_baseline,1.786762 +2030,abs_bhc_child_deep_poverty_rate_reform,1.771653 +2030,abs_bhc_child_deep_poverty_rate_change,-0.01511 +2030,rel_bhc_poverty_rate_baseline,12.296566 +2030,rel_bhc_poverty_rate_reform,12.304026 +2030,rel_bhc_poverty_rate_change,0.00746 +2030,rel_bhc_child_poverty_rate_baseline,15.205172 +2030,rel_bhc_child_poverty_rate_reform,15.260718 +2030,rel_bhc_child_poverty_rate_change,0.055545 +2030,abs_ahc_poverty_rate_baseline,13.920852 +2030,abs_ahc_poverty_rate_reform,13.858925 +2030,abs_ahc_poverty_rate_change,-0.061926 +2030,abs_ahc_child_poverty_rate_baseline,19.664388 +2030,abs_ahc_child_poverty_rate_reform,19.631332 +2030,abs_ahc_child_poverty_rate_change,-0.033056 +2030,abs_ahc_deep_poverty_rate_baseline,4.664174 +2030,abs_ahc_deep_poverty_rate_reform,4.701743 +2030,abs_ahc_deep_poverty_rate_change,0.037569 +2030,abs_ahc_child_deep_poverty_rate_baseline,5.39454 +2030,abs_ahc_child_deep_poverty_rate_reform,5.522416 +2030,abs_ahc_child_deep_poverty_rate_change,0.127876 +2030,rel_ahc_poverty_rate_baseline,18.12895 +2030,rel_ahc_poverty_rate_reform,18.186226 +2030,rel_ahc_poverty_rate_change,0.057277 +2030,rel_ahc_child_poverty_rate_baseline,25.237747 +2030,rel_ahc_child_poverty_rate_reform,25.315993 +2030,rel_ahc_child_poverty_rate_change,0.078246 diff --git a/public/data/winners_losers.csv b/public/data/winners_losers.csv index 08200bf..f3ab2c0 100644 --- a/public/data/winners_losers.csv +++ b/public/data/winners_losers.csv @@ -1,56 +1,56 @@ year,decile,pct_gaining,pct_losing,pct_unchanged -2026,1st,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2026,2nd,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2026,3rd,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2026,4th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2026,5th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2026,6th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2026,7th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2026,8th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2026,9th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2026,10th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2026,All,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2027,1st,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2027,2nd,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2027,3rd,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2027,4th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2027,5th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2027,6th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2027,7th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2027,8th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2027,9th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2027,10th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2027,All,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2028,1st,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2028,2nd,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2028,3rd,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2028,4th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2028,5th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2028,6th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2028,7th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2028,8th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2028,9th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2028,10th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2028,All,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2029,1st,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2029,2nd,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2029,3rd,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2029,4th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2029,5th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2029,6th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2029,7th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2029,8th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2029,9th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2029,10th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2029,All,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2030,1st,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2030,2nd,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2030,3rd,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2030,4th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2030,5th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2030,6th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2030,7th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2030,8th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2030,9th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2030,10th,0.0,0.0,100.0 -2030,All,0.0,0.0,100.0 +2026,1st,32.0,38.63,29.37 +2026,2nd,40.9,43.14,15.96 +2026,3rd,24.67,49.64,25.69 +2026,4th,19.55,49.71,30.74 +2026,5th,22.53,49.8,27.67 +2026,6th,22.78,44.21,33.01 +2026,7th,19.32,45.52,35.17 +2026,8th,15.68,38.53,45.8 +2026,9th,13.76,19.43,66.82 +2026,10th,18.4,16.03,65.57 +2026,All,23.29,39.29,37.42 +2027,1st,26.82,43.32,29.85 +2027,2nd,40.61,44.97,14.42 +2027,3rd,21.94,50.68,27.38 +2027,4th,20.33,51.46,28.21 +2027,5th,21.23,52.04,26.73 +2027,6th,22.16,44.72,33.12 +2027,7th,16.56,50.68,32.77 +2027,8th,14.85,40.75,44.39 +2027,9th,12.19,23.59,64.22 +2027,10th,17.32,19.26,63.42 +2027,All,21.65,42.01,36.34 +2028,1st,27.14,42.92,29.94 +2028,2nd,39.93,46.86,13.2 +2028,3rd,22.36,58.7,18.93 +2028,4th,21.06,58.94,20.0 +2028,5th,21.37,64.93,13.7 +2028,6th,22.73,68.74,8.53 +2028,7th,17.45,68.46,14.09 +2028,8th,19.19,69.58,11.23 +2028,9th,20.23,47.97,31.8 +2028,10th,51.24,21.78,26.98 +2028,All,26.47,54.19,19.34 +2029,1st,28.19,45.13,26.68 +2029,2nd,39.52,53.03,7.44 +2029,3rd,21.04,73.91,5.05 +2029,4th,20.39,73.95,5.66 +2029,5th,22.34,71.54,6.12 +2029,6th,23.2,72.92,3.88 +2029,7th,18.51,79.26,2.23 +2029,8th,26.0,70.15,3.84 +2029,9th,47.82,45.34,6.84 +2029,10th,71.61,24.85,3.54 +2029,All,31.94,60.24,7.82 +2030,1st,29.51,59.0,11.49 +2030,2nd,29.57,57.56,12.87 +2030,3rd,21.04,77.44,1.52 +2030,4th,20.45,77.58,1.97 +2030,5th,22.27,72.12,5.61 +2030,6th,23.41,72.65,3.94 +2030,7th,18.23,79.56,2.21 +2030,8th,27.71,70.25,2.04 +2030,9th,45.95,47.17,6.88 +2030,10th,71.87,23.95,4.18 +2030,All,31.09,63.21,5.7 From 5f6da8df289b4c15053d34a6a79a0be56d091cfe Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Vahid Ahmadi Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 17:30:10 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 02/27] Convert population impact to real terms, fix UI issues - Add CPI deflator to express reform income in baseline (Nov 2025) price levels, giving real-terms impact comparison - Apply deflator across all calculators: distributional, winners/losers, intra-decile, inequality, detailed budgetary, scatter, constituency - Generate household archetype data (stats + comparison JSONs) in pipeline instead of relying on static pre-generated files - Fix winners/losers chart Y-axis clipping (set explicit -60% to 60%) - Remove redundant IntraDecileChart (kept WinnersLosers chart only) Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 --- public/data/detailed_budgetary_impact.csv | 100 +- public/data/distributional_impact.csv | 110 +- public/data/household_comparison.json | 36 +- public/data/household_scatter.csv | 4000 ++++++++++----------- public/data/household_stats.json | 36 +- public/data/inequality.csv | 30 +- public/data/intra_decile.csv | 540 +-- public/data/winners_losers.csv | 110 +- src/components/PopulationTab.jsx | 8 +- src/spring_statement_data/calculators.py | 35 +- src/spring_statement_data/pipeline.py | 97 + src/spring_statement_data/reforms.py | 29 + 12 files changed, 2636 insertions(+), 2495 deletions(-) diff --git a/public/data/detailed_budgetary_impact.csv b/public/data/detailed_budgetary_impact.csv index 7afe079..d511327 100644 --- a/public/data/detailed_budgetary_impact.csv +++ b/public/data/detailed_budgetary_impact.csv @@ -1,51 +1,51 @@ year,program,baseline,reform,difference -2026,income_tax,304730.8439144392,304744.0698935997,13.225979160522462 -2026,national_insurance,55737.99965794466,56141.3191489743,403.3194910296402 -2026,vat,200835.8714179344,200835.8714179344,0.0 -2026,council_tax,60664.11190772149,60664.11190772149,0.0 -2026,fuel_duty,35463.747557224386,35463.747557224386,0.0 -2026,tax_credits,5290.852230760112,5286.707752740712,4.144478019400597 -2026,universal_credit,80892.74900119173,80867.7426383464,25.006362845321654 -2026,child_benefit,15611.400307538195,15603.84313430796,7.557173230236053 -2026,state_pension,122078.41468818983,122176.21637289779,-97.80168470796204 -2026,pension_credit,5972.874071519186,5954.92955415779,17.944517361395835 -2027,income_tax,320908.0067779534,320934.23671441426,26.22993646081543 -2027,national_insurance,58186.76532734835,57479.012494316165,-707.7528330321884 -2027,vat,205610.5477711693,205610.5477711693,0.0 -2027,council_tax,64519.435719095694,64519.435719095694,0.0 -2027,fuel_duty,40246.61442554191,40246.61442554191,0.0 -2027,tax_credits,5436.194798181148,5416.586102475047,19.60869570610237 -2027,universal_credit,82995.18245214972,82906.04219420836,89.14025794136047 -2027,child_benefit,16057.736020704735,16021.75957636995,35.97644433478546 -2027,state_pension,125938.71122687338,126143.831024713,-205.11979783961488 -2027,pension_credit,6085.320196301552,6024.0809320465605,61.23926425499153 -2028,income_tax,335134.91884455556,335164.9201421303,30.001297574768067 -2028,national_insurance,58915.746722880016,58806.409548955045,-109.3371739249649 -2028,vat,210561.63934467576,210561.63934467576,0.0 -2028,council_tax,68699.73700763391,68699.73700763391,0.0 -2028,fuel_duty,42787.86606888584,42787.86606888584,0.0 -2028,tax_credits,5555.893679060627,5534.008332033964,21.88534702666378 -2028,universal_credit,85295.01359726118,85198.50800779137,96.50558946980286 -2028,child_benefit,16447.663123018487,16407.538359263017,40.124763755470276 -2028,state_pension,129121.12650330196,129331.85101443302,-210.72451113105774 -2028,pension_credit,6174.526047702704,6108.649815220868,65.87623248183633 -2029,income_tax,350155.8273071976,350188.269292015,32.44198481738281 -2029,national_insurance,61384.56714483321,61774.167857809356,389.60071297615053 -2029,vat,215717.8752039614,215717.8752039614,0.0 -2029,council_tax,72862.3997553772,72862.3997553772,0.0 -2029,fuel_duty,45125.56573567095,45125.56573567095,0.0 -2029,tax_credits,5682.515596333218,5656.567814368341,25.947781964878082 -2029,universal_credit,87912.83786355042,87801.65622456431,111.18163898609924 -2029,child_benefit,16857.063952252585,16809.306644069908,47.75730818267822 -2029,state_pension,132446.50504959468,132663.80369090423,-217.2986413095703 -2029,pension_credit,6239.735857206298,6165.61580016285,74.12005704344749 -2030,income_tax,367081.0083849407,367114.8418567441,33.833471803405764 -2030,national_insurance,62611.38354587946,63411.14844326598,799.7648973865204 -2030,vat,221022.3838654562,221022.3838654562,0.0 -2030,council_tax,77210.71335799992,77210.71335799992,0.0 -2030,fuel_duty,47578.74239954073,47578.74239954073,0.0 -2030,tax_credits,5803.93303676049,5773.654437884992,30.278598875496865 -2030,universal_credit,89749.45900276749,89492.85746436992,256.60153839756777 -2030,child_benefit,17278.36202601888,17222.61199670249,55.75002931639099 -2030,state_pension,135881.71015803205,136105.63123261754,-223.92107458551024 -2030,pension_credit,5770.899498894896,5687.848066462216,83.05143243268108 +2026,income_tax,304730.8439144392,305427.89749162976,697.0535771905518 +2026,national_insurance,55737.99965794466,56267.29693563733,529.2972776926728 +2026,vat,200835.8714179344,201286.53518834984,450.6637704154358 +2026,council_tax,60664.11190772149,60800.23857278495,136.1266650634613 +2026,fuel_duty,35463.747557224386,35543.32610100924,79.57854378485108 +2026,tax_credits,5290.852230760112,5298.570811028624,-7.718580268511772 +2026,universal_credit,80892.74900119173,81049.20505113692,-156.45604994519044 +2026,child_benefit,15611.400307538195,15638.857231790797,-27.456924252601624 +2026,state_pension,122078.41468818983,122450.37254797234,-371.9578597825012 +2026,pension_credit,5972.874071519186,5968.2920624910275,4.582009028158188 +2027,income_tax,320908.0067779534,321717.4635745019,809.456796548462 +2027,national_insurance,58186.76532734835,57619.28767012086,-567.4776572274933 +2027,vat,205610.5477711693,206112.33189174294,501.7841205736389 +2027,council_tax,64519.435719095694,64676.892759423434,157.4570403277359 +2027,fuel_duty,40246.61442554191,40344.834639653025,98.22021411110687 +2027,tax_credits,5436.194798181148,5429.805059009157,6.389739171991348 +2027,universal_credit,82995.18245214972,83108.37099457203,-113.18854242231751 +2027,child_benefit,16057.736020704735,16060.860024407364,-3.124003702629089 +2027,state_pension,125938.71122687338,126451.67987781255,-512.9686509391632 +2027,pension_credit,6085.320196301552,6038.782454830866,46.53774147068596 +2028,income_tax,335134.91884455556,336114.63439301826,979.7155484627075 +2028,national_insurance,58915.746722880016,58973.04180023156,57.29507735154724 +2028,vat,210561.63934467576,211158.2811098437,596.6417651679383 +2028,council_tax,68699.73700763391,68894.40272396467,194.66571633074952 +2028,fuel_duty,42787.86606888584,42909.10860868826,121.24253980241394 +2028,tax_credits,5555.893679060627,5549.689348338523,6.204330722104072 +2028,universal_credit,85295.01359726118,85439.92419530608,-144.91059804492187 +2028,child_benefit,16447.663123018487,16454.03031610377,-6.367193085283279 +2028,state_pension,129121.12650330196,129698.32224880336,-577.1957455014038 +2028,pension_credit,6174.526047702704,6125.959120087079,48.56692761562538 +2029,income_tax,350155.8273071976,351318.2711626836,1162.4438554859619 +2029,national_insurance,61384.56714483321,61973.50327638133,588.9361315481262 +2029,vat,215717.8752039614,216413.96249155086,696.0872875894776 +2029,council_tax,72862.3997553772,73097.51513543104,235.11538005381774 +2029,fuel_duty,45125.56573567095,45271.178762056385,145.61302638542938 +2029,tax_credits,5682.515596333218,5674.82065940145,7.694936931768417 +2029,universal_credit,87912.83786355042,88084.97821014124,-172.14034659082031 +2029,child_benefit,16857.063952252585,16863.547604199277,-6.483651946691513 +2029,state_pension,132446.50504959468,133091.88869399074,-645.3836443960877 +2029,pension_credit,6239.735857206298,6185.511262115627,54.22459509067154 +2030,income_tax,367081.0083849407,368299.4630860246,1218.4547010839233 +2030,national_insurance,62611.38354587946,63615.76613793348,1004.3825920540237 +2030,vat,221022.3838654562,221735.58795916426,713.2040937080384 +2030,council_tax,77210.71335799992,77459.86005473704,249.14669673712157 +2030,fuel_duty,47578.74239954073,47732.2714370046,153.52903746386718 +2030,tax_credits,5803.93303676049,5792.285102837289,11.647933923200608 +2030,universal_credit,89749.45900276749,89781.63668747373,-32.17768470623779 +2030,child_benefit,17278.36202601888,17278.186627495856,0.175398523021698 +2030,state_pension,135881.71015803205,136544.8224659856,-663.1123079535676 +2030,pension_credit,5770.899498894896,5706.201847895772,64.69765099912453 diff --git a/public/data/distributional_impact.csv b/public/data/distributional_impact.csv index bedbd96..8771e61 100644 --- a/public/data/distributional_impact.csv +++ b/public/data/distributional_impact.csv @@ -1,56 +1,56 @@ year,decile,absolute_change,relative_change -2026,1st,0.8,0.004 -2026,2nd,0.91,0.003 -2026,3rd,-0.4,-0.0011 -2026,4th,-0.71,-0.0017 -2026,5th,-0.31,-0.0007 -2026,6th,-0.24,-0.0005 -2026,7th,0.12,0.0002 -2026,8th,2.27,0.0034 -2026,9th,6.03,0.0083 -2026,10th,-133.24,-0.1061 -2026,All,-12.6,-0.0233 -2027,1st,-1.86,-0.0091 -2027,2nd,-4.87,-0.0156 -2027,3rd,-7.93,-0.0212 -2027,4th,-8.27,-0.0191 -2027,5th,-8.51,-0.0183 -2027,6th,-5.5,-0.0104 -2027,7th,-8.21,-0.0145 -2027,8th,-2.83,-0.0042 -2027,9th,2.31,0.0031 -2027,10th,215.04,0.1685 -2027,All,17.32,0.0315 -2028,1st,-2.34,-0.0114 -2028,2nd,-6.29,-0.02 -2028,3rd,-9.98,-0.0261 -2028,4th,-9.5,-0.0215 -2028,5th,-11.09,-0.0234 -2028,6th,-7.13,-0.0132 -2028,7th,-11.27,-0.0196 -2028,8th,-6.48,-0.0096 -2028,9th,-6.72,-0.009 -2028,10th,45.12,0.0345 -2028,All,-2.41,-0.0043 -2029,1st,-3.38,-0.0162 -2029,2nd,-8.95,-0.0279 -2029,3rd,-13.32,-0.0344 -2029,4th,-11.85,-0.0266 -2029,5th,-13.98,-0.0289 -2029,6th,-9.44,-0.0172 -2029,7th,-13.57,-0.0233 -2029,8th,-7.53,-0.011 -2029,9th,-9.85,-0.0129 -2029,10th,-106.31,-0.0798 -2029,All,-19.66,-0.0347 -2030,1st,-11.24,-0.0536 -2030,2nd,-17.71,-0.0545 -2030,3rd,-21.49,-0.0546 -2030,4th,-19.37,-0.043 -2030,5th,-21.09,-0.0429 -2030,6th,-14.06,-0.0249 -2030,7th,-18.37,-0.0313 -2030,8th,-8.13,-0.0117 -2030,9th,-5.89,-0.0076 -2030,10th,-244.06,-0.1793 -2030,All,-38.21,-0.0663 +2026,1st,45.92,0.2284 +2026,2nd,69.9,0.2274 +2026,3rd,82.74,0.2233 +2026,4th,94.46,0.2227 +2026,5th,102.52,0.2237 +2026,6th,117.14,0.2239 +2026,7th,124.42,0.2246 +2026,8th,150.17,0.2279 +2026,9th,169.7,0.2327 +2026,10th,148.3,0.1181 +2026,All,108.64,0.201 +2027,1st,47.71,0.2349 +2027,2nd,71.29,0.2284 +2027,3rd,83.42,0.2228 +2027,4th,97.45,0.2249 +2027,5th,105.16,0.2257 +2027,6th,124.03,0.2337 +2027,7th,129.59,0.2295 +2027,8th,160.6,0.2398 +2027,9th,182.59,0.2472 +2027,10th,527.02,0.4129 +2027,All,151.38,0.2757 +2028,1st,55.92,0.2719 +2028,2nd,82.93,0.2633 +2028,3rd,98.3,0.2572 +2028,4th,115.46,0.2618 +2028,5th,122.9,0.2599 +2028,6th,146.04,0.2701 +2028,7th,151.38,0.2637 +2028,8th,185.72,0.2738 +2028,9th,205.74,0.2744 +2028,10th,416.14,0.3179 +2028,All,155.79,0.279 +2029,1st,63.81,0.3064 +2029,2nd,94.51,0.2947 +2029,3rd,111.51,0.2882 +2029,4th,131.9,0.296 +2029,5th,141.84,0.2936 +2029,6th,167.16,0.3054 +2029,7th,174.14,0.2993 +2029,8th,213.33,0.3117 +2029,9th,236.32,0.3097 +2029,10th,323.16,0.2426 +2029,All,163.17,0.2879 +2030,1st,56.41,0.2689 +2030,2nd,87.02,0.268 +2030,3rd,105.42,0.2679 +2030,4th,126.03,0.2796 +2030,5th,137.64,0.2797 +2030,6th,168.17,0.2977 +2030,7th,171.08,0.2913 +2030,8th,216.57,0.311 +2030,9th,242.48,0.315 +2030,10th,194.5,0.1429 +2030,All,147.74,0.2562 diff --git a/public/data/household_comparison.json b/public/data/household_comparison.json index 2a205fb..46d2b16 100644 --- a/public/data/household_comparison.json +++ b/public/data/household_comparison.json @@ -1,38 +1,38 @@ [ { "group": "Single adult, no children", - "baseline_hnet": 29438, - "reformed_hnet": 29430, - "change": -8 + "baseline_hnet": 28974, + "reformed_hnet": 29055, + "change": 81 }, { "group": "Couple, no children", - "baseline_hnet": 64188, - "reformed_hnet": 64180, - "change": -8 + "baseline_hnet": 73700, + "reformed_hnet": 73920, + "change": 220 }, { "group": "Single parent", - "baseline_hnet": 39886, - "reformed_hnet": 39855, - "change": -31 + "baseline_hnet": 39720, + "reformed_hnet": 39806, + "change": 86 }, { "group": "Couple with children", - "baseline_hnet": 74966, - "reformed_hnet": 74932, - "change": -34 + "baseline_hnet": 79390, + "reformed_hnet": 79596, + "change": 206 }, { "group": "Single pensioner", - "baseline_hnet": 27033, - "reformed_hnet": 27027, - "change": -6 + "baseline_hnet": 27058, + "reformed_hnet": 27144, + "change": 86 }, { "group": "Pensioner couple", - "baseline_hnet": 54118, - "reformed_hnet": 54121, - "change": 3 + "baseline_hnet": 55211, + "reformed_hnet": 55401, + "change": 190 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/public/data/household_scatter.csv b/public/data/household_scatter.csv index edfa3a7..aba645a 100644 --- a/public/data/household_scatter.csv +++ b/public/data/household_scatter.csv @@ -1,2001 +1,2001 @@ baseline_income,net_impact,decile -35805.17,5.328125,2 -29820.436,7.3242188,7 -102840.32,-2.921875,7 -69916.83,12.171875,6 -15916.681,-5.7753906,1 -42595.555,4.9921875,8 -65239.54,14.6484375,8 -104945.01,-1.7890625,2 -51208.535,0.0,10 -55919.9,-6.0078125,7 -30429.137,7.326172,5 -135596.16,0.0,7 -20806.479,-1.7929688,7 -13078.849,0.0,1 -116075.5,0.0,10 -18695.453,9.160156,1 -30978.37,14.650391,3 -42565.406,-11.503906,5 -23564.305,0.0,4 -42916.14,12.621094,1 -22150.89,2.5820312,1 -40623.48,0.0,2 -84449.85,0.0,9 -2352.5312,0.0,-1 -37328.547,0.0,7 -33948.074,-1.578125,1 -57971.812,-0.6796875,7 -46734.543,-1.8359375,8 -41799.32,-1.1289062,2 -92012.12,-5.78125,2 -19430.791,9.158203,2 -30755.68,0.0,6 -84916.31,21.242188,8 -72437.234,-9.2890625,4 -55010.758,471.3047,10 -64008.523,0.0,9 -30798.252,7.2734375,3 -53932.46,12.449219,2 --6965.043,0.0,1 -78043.03,0.0,10 -56464.867,4.7109375,10 -30208.219,0.0,3 -12691.761,-5.7753906,1 -35466.266,7.328125,6 -64574.727,-17.027344,5 -68294.32,5.1875,7 -8195.668,-5.7768555,1 -38713.9,-1.7929688,4 -80498.99,11.3203125,8 -36245.25,7.328125,6 -95346.43,-6.28125,9 -47560.156,-13.3984375,3 -38558.59,-4.1601562,3 -92642.74,12.8203125,10 -50239.51,-8.816406,1 -42924.95,0.0,4 -36996.18,7.3242188,2 -30563.295,-4.8789062,6 -22755.164,0.0,1 -5814.381,-0.6796875,1 -25125.291,0.0,5 -25518.549,0.0,3 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+18605.172,49.089844,2 +34164.86,75.08984,1 +35731.285,80.17969,4 +96181.32,222.61719,3 +61484.3,133.64844,7 +69246.93,169.52344,5 +59064.98,131.85938,5 +44951.434,91.578125,3 +19157.363,50.333984,1 +88466.61,198.51562,9 +-191042.4,-428.70312,3 +121343.77,275.96094,9 +95705.62,220.26562,10 +50638.656,100.67969,8 +71288.81,155.60938,4 +-555.3806,-1.2462769,-1 +98335.86,220.66406,7 +6572.1104,23.926758,1 +93817.87,210.52344,9 +34582.453,84.94531,4 +54049.516,105.91797,6 +67639.67,390.0625,6 +56053.984,140.29688,7 +55240.727,123.28516,6 +23065.059,49.960938,4 +125832.5,268.96094,7 +52696.395,118.24609,5 +102851.81,228.98438,9 +64669.234,148.78516,10 +49470.535,112.09766,1 +49676.137,111.47266,2 +56766.363,126.703125,7 +61891.58,138.24219,8 +48246.54,107.13672,3 +43614.066,105.21094,2 +48954.766,107.69922,4 +68817.086,168.71875,8 +28566.17,64.10156,6 +46010.375,102.515625,4 +54549.42,127.125,2 +73614.6,165.1875,10 +102638.805,241.96094,9 +51128.63,114.73047,7 +79219.05,185.65625,7 +49298.438,110.625,9 +31884.254,66.38086,2 +36852.418,97.37891,2 +42274.254,102.203125,9 +44964.19,100.34766,1 +117164.38,262.91406,10 +112115.29,258.32812,2 +97098.66,217.89062,10 +93071.72,202.82031,6 +60400.805,135.53906,9 +49926.0,97.13281,6 +24727.885,48.04883,4 +43308.406,89.03906,4 diff --git a/public/data/household_stats.json b/public/data/household_stats.json index d3ffea0..e9a8f1b 100644 --- a/public/data/household_stats.json +++ b/public/data/household_stats.json @@ -1,38 +1,38 @@ [ { "group": "Single adult, no children", - "mean_hnet": 29438, - "median_hnet": 24215, - "weighted_n": 8135470 + "mean_hnet": 28974, + "median_hnet": 24878, + "weighted_n": 5553858 }, { "group": "Couple, no children", - "mean_hnet": 64188, - "median_hnet": 54442, - "weighted_n": 10806929 + "mean_hnet": 73700, + "median_hnet": 61662, + "weighted_n": 8869591 }, { "group": "Single parent", - "mean_hnet": 39886, - "median_hnet": 36933, - "weighted_n": 2516884 + "mean_hnet": 39720, + "median_hnet": 37036, + "weighted_n": 2059121 }, { "group": "Couple with children", - "mean_hnet": 74966, - "median_hnet": 63045, - "weighted_n": 6611670 + "mean_hnet": 79390, + "median_hnet": 67388, + "weighted_n": 6785480 }, { "group": "Single pensioner", - "mean_hnet": 27033, - "median_hnet": 23103, - "weighted_n": 4061703 + "mean_hnet": 27058, + "median_hnet": 23223, + "weighted_n": 3938884 }, { "group": "Pensioner couple", - "mean_hnet": 54118, - "median_hnet": 49209, - "weighted_n": 3383456 + "mean_hnet": 55211, + "median_hnet": 50027, + "weighted_n": 4831445 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/public/data/inequality.csv b/public/data/inequality.csv index 15edbb0..8a8ef73 100644 --- a/public/data/inequality.csv +++ b/public/data/inequality.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ year,metric,baseline,reform -2026,gini,0.28291195949308817,0.282743616786075 -2026,top_10_pct_share,0.24028316663722432,0.24014494548121476 -2026,top_1_pct_share,0.06448224582651775,0.06423838226543441 -2027,gini,0.2842003744929869,0.2845518649059099 -2027,top_10_pct_share,0.24025349142671878,0.2405346533086001 -2027,top_1_pct_share,0.06382009081093477,0.06412096507564989 -2028,gini,0.28588488792559646,0.2860221529330154 -2028,top_10_pct_share,0.2425271346494153,0.24252668996899426 -2028,top_1_pct_share,0.06496273311571045,0.06503612888528176 -2029,gini,0.2868648845495297,0.2867903987629185 -2029,top_10_pct_share,0.24169740521303365,0.24152175080891358 -2029,top_1_pct_share,0.06443141788046869,0.06437224754283671 -2030,gini,0.2891819010569601,0.2890009249391396 -2030,top_10_pct_share,0.2432481679345802,0.24287518823126414 -2030,top_1_pct_share,0.06536563048246652,0.06506871296817356 +2026,gini,0.28291195949308817,0.28274361710762097 +2026,top_10_pct_share,0.24028316663722432,0.2401449460329027 +2026,top_1_pct_share,0.06448224582651775,0.06423838265557502 +2027,gini,0.2842003744929869,0.28455186506251473 +2027,top_10_pct_share,0.24025349142671878,0.24053465310337077 +2027,top_1_pct_share,0.06382009081093477,0.06412096496680546 +2028,gini,0.28588488792559646,0.2860221525953312 +2028,top_10_pct_share,0.2425271346494153,0.24252669040666622 +2028,top_1_pct_share,0.06496273311571045,0.06503612900666308 +2029,gini,0.2868648845495297,0.28679039846730625 +2029,top_10_pct_share,0.24169740521303365,0.24152175091444492 +2029,top_1_pct_share,0.06443141788046869,0.06437224753543995 +2030,gini,0.2891819010569601,0.28900092473370537 +2030,top_10_pct_share,0.2432481679345802,0.2428751885181598 +2030,top_1_pct_share,0.06536563048246652,0.06506871310408356 diff --git a/public/data/intra_decile.csv b/public/data/intra_decile.csv index 28525e0..2825cd9 100644 --- a/public/data/intra_decile.csv +++ b/public/data/intra_decile.csv @@ -1,276 +1,276 @@ year,decile,outcome,share -2026,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.003588456128435063 -2026,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.0040980518038138385 -2026,1st,No change,0.9477600002451908 -2026,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.04316734269823038 -2026,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0013861491243300102 -2026,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.0014519814345184962 -2026,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.00152994179735113 -2026,2nd,No change,0.9763020334870605 -2026,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.019278491166723834 -2026,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.0014375521143460287 -2026,3rd,Lose more than 5%,1.134064713466854e-05 -2026,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.0015791426335324097 -2026,3rd,No change,0.9851807796384523 -2026,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.010861547930898451 -2026,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0023671891499821365 -2026,4th,Lose more than 5%,1.352600574963601e-05 -2026,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.0003390258063541088 -2026,4th,No change,0.997294759099829 -2026,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.0015196415025011908 -2026,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0008330475855660725 -2026,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.0051356091973205975 -2026,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.0009182962414090315 -2026,5th,No change,0.9916329829786502 -2026,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.0022977545785939444 -2026,5th,Gain more than 5%,1.5357004026221944e-05 -2026,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.0001034603029005416 -2026,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.0003948357108072325 -2026,6th,No change,0.9970526853233909 -2026,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.0022032321426259088 -2026,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.0002457865202754973 -2026,7th,Lose more than 5%,0.006701531753188732 -2026,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.00020084146290064484 -2026,7th,No change,0.9872816377986482 -2026,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.005649270609415134 -2026,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0001667183758472417 -2026,8th,Lose more than 5%,7.885230298477537e-05 -2026,8th,Lose less than 5%,1.600165143458112e-05 -2026,8th,No change,0.9897843353128988 -2026,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.009524639355917736 -2026,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0005961713767640827 -2026,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 +2026,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.006608994418726888 +2026,1st,Lose less than 5%,8.593977223123586e-05 +2026,1st,No change,6.903075557791696e-05 +2026,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.9931024242010589 +2026,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0001336108524050545 +2026,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.003121838444757266 +2026,2nd,Lose less than 5%,6.434787639647734e-06 +2026,2nd,No change,1.924011334725069e-06 +2026,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.9965318279553941 +2026,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.00033797480087424523 +2026,3rd,Lose more than 5%,0.001895574943696338 +2026,3rd,Lose less than 5%,4.661377387530178e-06 +2026,3rd,No change,0.0 +2026,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.9976055750192712 +2026,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0004941886596449675 +2026,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.00027543157478920937 +2026,4th,Lose less than 5%,4.2397743959283015e-06 +2026,4th,No change,0.0 +2026,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.9991164064824325 +2026,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0006039221683823755 +2026,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.005143136495937747 +2026,5th,Lose less than 5%,1.1559802943861926e-05 +2026,5th,No change,6.899625671729878e-06 +2026,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.9948299886545624 +2026,5th,Gain more than 5%,8.41542088423726e-06 +2026,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.001069300681372733 +2026,6th,Lose less than 5%,7.463930312546496e-05 +2026,6th,No change,0.0 +2026,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.9988560600155018 +2026,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 +2026,7th,Lose more than 5%,0.0068698602829670614 +2026,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 +2026,7th,No change,4.680255314399224e-06 +2026,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.9931254594617185 +2026,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 +2026,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.000675023679748858 +2026,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 +2026,8th,No change,0.0 +2026,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.9993249763202512 +2026,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 +2026,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.0019045815499914463 2026,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2026,9th,No change,0.9861350878257589 -2026,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.013862308570134794 -2026,9th,Gain more than 5%,2.6036041063458904e-06 -2026,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.005089949299462445 +2026,9th,No change,0.0 +2026,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.9980474280335193 +2026,9th,Gain more than 5%,4.7990416489217476e-05 +2026,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.005092091099581802 2026,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2026,10th,No change,0.956282643195625 -2026,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.03236474862711772 -2026,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.006262658877794868 -2026,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0022174707071694957 -2026,All,Lose less than 5%,0.0009076137107602977 -2026,All,No change,0.9814706944905505 -2026,All,Gain less than 5%,0.014072897718215908 -2026,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0013313233733038506 -2027,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.0039047779593303724 -2027,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.2910341384393943 -2027,1st,No change,0.5225717572364299 -2027,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.1811943936550268 -2027,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0012949327098185877 -2027,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.0014665986514748879 -2027,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.37947893500922103 -2027,2nd,No change,0.44241518271432184 -2027,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.17519080978879928 -2027,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.0014484738361829942 -2027,3rd,Lose more than 5%,1.1377997708996649e-05 -2027,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.32037457302116984 -2027,3rd,No change,0.5684511027483009 -2027,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.10859031160768223 -2027,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.002572634625138189 -2027,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.0002463074954584472 -2027,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.2681531522530694 -2027,4th,No change,0.6518901302254578 -2027,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.07910469603871159 +2026,10th,No change,0.0 +2026,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.987704586101295 +2026,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.007203322799123181 +2026,All,Lose more than 5%,0.003265583317156935 +2026,All,Lose less than 5%,1.8747481772366896e-05 +2026,All,No change,8.253464789877114e-06 +2026,All,Gain less than 5%,0.9958244732245005 +2026,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0008829425117803278 +2027,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.006794743452123105 +2027,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.0016105920113064355 +2027,1st,No change,0.011877679537775328 +2027,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.9795190230645271 +2027,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.00019796193426793566 +2027,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.0031005818958020973 +2027,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.0010601583196033603 +2027,2nd,No change,0.0021085370233856985 +2027,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.9933779210727625 +2027,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.00035280168844641356 +2027,3rd,Lose more than 5%,0.0018960935439802339 +2027,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.0011899996858940852 +2027,3rd,No change,0.0029335970649420023 +2027,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.9932814495549407 +2027,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0006988601502429873 +2027,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.0002794035605248458 +2027,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.00010591863726052218 +2027,4th,No change,0.0017501797566236617 +2027,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.9972587840582883 2027,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0006057139873026753 -2027,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.005143827901174483 -2027,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.2235366319021381 -2027,5th,No change,0.7288277378236272 -2027,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.04248061406204653 -2027,5th,Gain more than 5%,1.1188311013705845e-05 -2027,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.00010187716925605217 -2027,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.12199957542685184 -2027,6th,No change,0.8433435425804002 -2027,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.03429005089595294 -2027,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.00026495392753897744 -2027,7th,Lose more than 5%,0.00020482778459988786 -2027,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.14020264919276448 -2027,7th,No change,0.8381395583200397 -2027,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.02128546277818536 -2027,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.00016750192441054355 -2027,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.0064861918409962315 -2027,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.06420511190322528 -2027,8th,No change,0.9167701951809388 -2027,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.01194587718532085 -2027,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0005926238895187958 -2027,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.0 -2027,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.02213026137145353 -2027,9th,No change,0.9708726052694878 -2027,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.006994520858798827 -2027,9th,Gain more than 5%,2.6125002598258946e-06 -2027,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.0002697160729275004 -2027,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.029889163707232897 -2027,10th,No change,0.951680591728465 -2027,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.013175523493108847 -2027,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.004985004998265785 -2027,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0017835502872926858 -2027,All,Lose less than 5%,0.18610041922265208 -2027,All,No change,0.743496240382747 -2027,All,Gain less than 5%,0.06742522603636332 -2027,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0011945640709450079 -2028,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.00412615585662092 -2028,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.29299780165107403 -2028,1st,No change,0.5177895473827401 -2028,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.18379174683628424 -2028,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0012947482732808325 -2028,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.001672931242976737 -2028,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.39543962306691377 -2028,2nd,No change,0.42651593403508303 -2028,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.1749127173157391 -2028,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.0014587943392874113 -2028,3rd,Lose more than 5%,2.614464940352919e-05 -2028,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.3355061279825 -2028,3rd,No change,0.5563156035673287 -2028,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.10581208065241922 -2028,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0023400431483486094 +2027,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.005154512932525929 +2027,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.00013949087322671404 +2027,5th,No change,0.0021422475046182447 +2027,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.9925553398720003 +2027,5th,Gain more than 5%,8.408817628802254e-06 +2027,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.0010660291903206401 +2027,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.00026007355570818996 +2027,6th,No change,0.0004859625996210145 +2027,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.9981733099756536 +2027,6th,Gain more than 5%,1.4624678696588497e-05 +2027,7th,Lose more than 5%,0.0003816202450854556 +2027,7th,Lose less than 5%,2.106328800157162e-05 +2027,7th,No change,0.001230144627282173 +2027,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.9983671718396308 +2027,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 +2027,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.007078815730515027 +2027,8th,Lose less than 5%,1.507535307830526e-05 +2027,8th,No change,0.00011330535718496086 +2027,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.9927928035592217 +2027,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 +2027,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.0019110891744820763 +2027,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 +2027,9th,No change,0.0 +2027,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.9980889108255179 +2027,9th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 +2027,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.00012816438036027916 +2027,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.0037380605043602186 +2027,10th,No change,0.0 +2027,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.9911509047757974 +2027,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.004982870339482141 +2027,All,Lose more than 5%,0.002779105410571969 +2027,All,Lose less than 5%,0.0008140432228439402 +2027,All,No change,0.0022641653471433083 +2027,All,Gain less than 5%,0.993456561859834 +2027,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0006861241596067543 +2028,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.007030485222404763 +2028,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.0014972768435386802 +2028,1st,No change,0.007675937014807524 +2028,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.9835231812122941 +2028,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0002731197069550333 +2028,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.003142490833452881 +2028,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.0008761723826488992 +2028,2nd,No change,0.0006241385933613018 +2028,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.9949913277714026 +2028,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.0003658704191342674 +2028,3rd,Lose more than 5%,0.0018798566582885435 +2028,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.0010956470737670842 +2028,3rd,No change,0.000986113578949313 +2028,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.9955520515495314 +2028,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0004863311394635953 2028,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.00028368168594097105 -2028,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.2628442719683398 -2028,4th,No change,0.6556856008148754 -2028,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.08056821953118709 +2028,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.00015944105049225458 +2028,4th,No change,0.0008473557638996621 +2028,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.9980912955000104 2028,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0006182259996566861 -2028,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.005200697070092856 -2028,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.2622321371414398 -2028,5th,No change,0.6906965421761894 -2028,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.04185945373910528 -2028,5th,Gain more than 5%,1.1169873172618614e-05 -2028,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.0001996102037046133 -2028,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.13832375707947284 -2028,6th,No change,0.8275591119081064 -2028,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.0334675886594447 -2028,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.00044993214927159113 -2028,7th,Lose more than 5%,1.4182604033877353e-05 -2028,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.1532502544217765 -2028,7th,No change,0.8263613520803271 -2028,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.019506957833639222 -2028,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0008672530602232108 -2028,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.0065641998140156645 -2028,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.058988756458410244 -2028,8th,No change,0.9272874196375103 -2028,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.006559872854241127 -2028,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0005997512358227571 -2028,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.001615779841715802 -2028,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.04824553204862797 -2028,9th,No change,0.9488814156128869 -2028,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.0009980747419685947 -2028,9th,Gain more than 5%,0.0002591977548005689 -2028,10th,Lose more than 5%,9.102661270972437e-05 -2028,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.04716796900677017 -2028,10th,No change,0.9418774892437634 -2028,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.004699751103663274 -2028,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.006163764033093482 -2028,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0019794409581214696 -2028,All,Lose less than 5%,0.19949962308253252 -2028,All,No change,0.7318970016458811 -2028,All,Gain less than 5%,0.06521764632676917 -2028,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0014062879866957767 -2029,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.00413630505008607 -2029,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.2947764189908315 -2029,1st,No change,0.5097619563136442 -2029,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.18991709447803665 -2029,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.001408225167401707 -2029,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.0016677495436202522 -2029,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.4305058519765534 -2029,2nd,No change,0.39125865548147387 -2029,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.17508474288307024 -2029,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.0014830001152822216 -2029,3rd,Lose more than 5%,3.8900068363024575e-05 -2029,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.3585854820377803 -2029,3rd,No change,0.5366814780685879 -2029,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.10237172431334343 -2029,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0023224155119252977 -2029,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.00036032579652245904 -2029,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.2749315598232694 -2029,4th,No change,0.6415720203645121 -2029,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.082519339283524 -2029,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0006167547321721812 -2029,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.00528210160821089 -2029,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.2767344344623371 -2029,5th,No change,0.675180827967563 -2029,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.042482268546099204 -2029,5th,Gain more than 5%,0.0003203674157897475 -2029,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.00019957177357058167 -2029,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.16115169643166669 -2029,6th,No change,0.8051892538229417 -2029,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.033009687935410766 -2029,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.00044979003641029973 -2029,7th,Lose more than 5%,1.410655115725516e-05 -2029,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.1552917192619132 -2029,7th,No change,0.8249423233048077 -2029,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.01886764021503835 -2029,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0008842106670835449 -2029,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.006519813036798466 -2029,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.062061948517701256 -2029,8th,No change,0.9174819464872851 -2029,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.013340596213319511 -2029,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0005956957448956867 -2029,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.001622508194117665 -2029,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.05858450881835301 -2029,9th,No change,0.9379172342671173 -2029,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.0016154716268403577 -2029,9th,Gain more than 5%,0.0002602770935717622 -2029,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.007733405936848057 -2029,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.05621531168835989 -2029,10th,No change,0.9349590854045848 -2029,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.0010723121198103595 -2029,10th,Gain more than 5%,1.988485039683772e-05 -2029,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0027574787559294716 -2029,All,Lose less than 5%,0.21288389320087658 -2029,All,No change,0.7174944781482517 -2029,All,Gain less than 5%,0.0660280877614493 -2029,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0008360621334929286 -2030,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.0067005225549827685 -2030,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.4519116964321259 -2030,1st,No change,0.3403410303560371 -2030,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.19914129099618627 -2030,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0019054596606678013 -2030,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.0003184392090771974 -2030,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.4695644925821656 -2030,2nd,No change,0.3572827558234632 -2030,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.17134022669472834 -2030,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.001494085690565774 -2030,3rd,Lose more than 5%,4.5139820381744196e-05 -2030,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.43977712629951793 -2030,3rd,No change,0.45444768621332776 -2030,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.10336671372892235 -2030,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0023633339378501986 -2030,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.0008249493751393884 -2030,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.31039826589588787 -2030,4th,No change,0.6037219486037311 -2030,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.08420715067676277 -2030,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0008476854484788901 -2030,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.005283008574863911 -2030,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.2827558132059203 -2030,5th,No change,0.6679601735925388 -2030,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.04388298646664175 -2030,5th,Gain more than 5%,0.00011801816003505972 -2030,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.0002017735406128133 -2030,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.17185140334571772 -2030,6th,No change,0.7927301521250152 -2030,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.03476644803878442 -2030,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.00045022294986978115 -2030,7th,Lose more than 5%,1.4164076802252751e-05 -2030,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.16597138341165873 -2030,7th,No change,0.8090797528725262 -2030,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.024011558128535303 -2030,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0009231415104777902 -2030,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.00655850979215556 -2030,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.07115092361187257 -2030,8th,No change,0.900739030833651 -2030,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.020765658808700686 -2030,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0007858769536201272 -2030,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.0016313135207037773 -2030,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.05916048874876685 -2030,9th,No change,0.9293155195296747 -2030,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.009630988590337789 -2030,9th,Gain more than 5%,0.00026168961051688385 -2030,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.005104540968884547 -2030,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.03264172216273909 -2030,10th,No change,0.9525290576910078 -2030,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.009408982255817662 -2030,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.00031569692155085025 -2030,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0026682361433603956 -2030,All,Lose less than 5%,0.24551833156963726 -2030,All,No change,0.6808147107640974 -2030,All,Gain less than 5%,0.07005220043854174 -2030,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0009465210843633158 +2028,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.005203471982964503 +2028,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.0017230852646105354 +2028,5th,No change,0.0013492333262705358 +2028,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.9917158144658534 +2028,5th,Gain more than 5%,8.394960300971674e-06 +2028,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.0010708294816319265 +2028,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.0013264438431045329 +2028,6th,No change,0.00022305048050096527 +2028,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.9971777037164588 +2028,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.00020197247830378433 +2028,7th,Lose more than 5%,0.00038101897676330436 +2028,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.0014999830774201624 +2028,7th,No change,0.0018971595501798787 +2028,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.9957214217081428 +2028,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0005004166874937839 +2028,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.007163951049838422 +2028,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.005474244750328056 +2028,8th,No change,0.000563404625975731 +2028,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.9867983995738578 +2028,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 +2028,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.001874977596516371 +2028,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.006207101402641376 +2028,9th,No change,0.0020278817889371964 +2028,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.9898900392119051 +2028,9th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 +2028,10th,Lose more than 5%,9.31823328772447e-05 +2028,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.016022068903582553 +2028,10th,No change,0.0027301981650263182 +2028,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.9727533894507321 +2028,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.008401161147781782 +2028,All,Lose more than 5%,0.002812394582067893 +2028,All,Lose less than 5%,0.0035881464592134133 +2028,All,No change,0.0018924472887908428 +2028,All,Gain less than 5%,0.9906214624160189 +2028,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0010855492539089905 +2029,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.007056757304222985 +2029,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.0023805952845082847 +2029,1st,No change,0.006760371042412917 +2029,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.9835098254261163 +2029,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0002924509427396195 +2029,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.003130727976984368 +2029,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.0008967131975259401 +2029,2nd,No change,0.0017643084113826088 +2029,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.9938354579225517 +2029,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.0003727924915554152 +2029,3rd,Lose more than 5%,0.0018746171824131593 +2029,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.0010771006200073906 +2029,3rd,No change,0.0016070181548459054 +2029,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.9949545656448584 +2029,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.00048669839787516276 +2029,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.0009664573620171193 +2029,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.0002301997151190937 +2029,4th,No change,0.0007291628121151789 +2029,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.9980635569440711 +2029,4th,Gain more than 5%,1.0623166677520937e-05 +2029,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.0052849048204539366 +2029,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.0014945244077486004 +2029,5th,No change,0.0014792369374133664 +2029,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.9914237696308374 +2029,5th,Gain more than 5%,0.00031756420354670054 +2029,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.0010705158794036649 +2029,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.001494575676786953 +2029,6th,No change,0.0003344513290333887 +2029,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.9969005642266973 +2029,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.00019989288807869136 +2029,7th,Lose more than 5%,0.00037897579176928423 +2029,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.001495598889040784 +2029,7th,No change,0.001715075732250962 +2029,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.9958910081604675 +2029,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0005193414264715159 +2029,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.007115508781694153 +2029,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.0036012452370948345 +2029,8th,No change,0.0006446966969010995 +2029,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.9886385492843099 +2029,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 +2029,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.0018827852876894273 +2029,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.007527855235325684 +2029,9th,No change,0.002143097088197329 +2029,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.9884462623887875 +2029,9th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 +2029,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.0073153260965019866 +2029,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.02064344507276128 +2029,10th,No change,0.002587889328737388 +2029,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.9694356113960588 +2029,10th,Gain more than 5%,1.7728105940507652e-05 +2029,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0036076576483150082 +2029,All,Lose less than 5%,0.004084185333591885 +2029,All,No change,0.0019765307533290144 +2029,All,Gain less than 5%,0.9901099171024755 +2029,All,Gain more than 5%,0.00022170916228851336 +2030,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.009981678519646264 +2030,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.018566029838154016 +2030,1st,No change,0.03952756063558715 +2030,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.9313032624097936 +2030,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0006214685968189083 +2030,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.0017260018808812514 +2030,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.0024909806756010324 +2030,2nd,No change,0.022315271906860168 +2030,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.9730138013924053 +2030,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.00045394414425217153 +2030,3rd,Lose more than 5%,0.0019014769347659131 +2030,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.002184884704962728 +2030,3rd,No change,0.013810948910244352 +2030,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.981595692626561 +2030,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0005069968234660295 +2030,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.0009603102566584665 +2030,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.0012202083769424557 +2030,4th,No change,0.01286024631119734 +2030,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.9849486115038896 +2030,4th,Gain more than 5%,1.0623551312220122e-05 +2030,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.0052941982702948065 +2030,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.0013789468725536461 +2030,5th,No change,0.009525752222997109 +2030,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.9836942741695501 +2030,5th,Gain more than 5%,0.00010682846460416513 +2030,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.001072838255882483 +2030,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.000757405905371799 +2030,6th,No change,0.0034890587150824943 +2030,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.9944804059280914 +2030,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.00020029119557178276 +2030,7th,Lose more than 5%,0.0004158463378664391 +2030,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.0020682367537168808 +2030,7th,No change,0.0027493748744337495 +2030,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.9942450827845694 +2030,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0005214592494136039 +2030,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.007157741171641648 +2030,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.0022594798834732885 +2030,8th,No change,0.0004544083488383072 +2030,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.9899417250219127 +2030,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0001866455741340386 +2030,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.0018930031312206612 +2030,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.00236534655579776 +2030,9th,No change,0.0013050251757604357 +2030,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.9944366251372212 +2030,9th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 +2030,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.005106681505243886 +2030,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.004620157391600785 +2030,10th,No change,0.00031402266347796935 +2030,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.9896455820544858 +2030,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.0003135563851915115 +2030,All,Lose more than 5%,0.003550977626410182 +2030,All,Lose less than 5%,0.00379116769581744 +2030,All,No change,0.010635166976447907 +2030,All,Gain less than 5%,0.981730506302848 +2030,All,Gain more than 5%,0.00029218139847644317 diff --git a/public/data/winners_losers.csv b/public/data/winners_losers.csv index f3ab2c0..dc24d94 100644 --- a/public/data/winners_losers.csv +++ b/public/data/winners_losers.csv @@ -1,56 +1,56 @@ year,decile,pct_gaining,pct_losing,pct_unchanged -2026,1st,32.0,38.63,29.37 -2026,2nd,40.9,43.14,15.96 -2026,3rd,24.67,49.64,25.69 -2026,4th,19.55,49.71,30.74 -2026,5th,22.53,49.8,27.67 -2026,6th,22.78,44.21,33.01 -2026,7th,19.32,45.52,35.17 -2026,8th,15.68,38.53,45.8 -2026,9th,13.76,19.43,66.82 -2026,10th,18.4,16.03,65.57 -2026,All,23.29,39.29,37.42 -2027,1st,26.82,43.32,29.85 -2027,2nd,40.61,44.97,14.42 -2027,3rd,21.94,50.68,27.38 -2027,4th,20.33,51.46,28.21 -2027,5th,21.23,52.04,26.73 -2027,6th,22.16,44.72,33.12 -2027,7th,16.56,50.68,32.77 -2027,8th,14.85,40.75,44.39 -2027,9th,12.19,23.59,64.22 -2027,10th,17.32,19.26,63.42 -2027,All,21.65,42.01,36.34 -2028,1st,27.14,42.92,29.94 -2028,2nd,39.93,46.86,13.2 -2028,3rd,22.36,58.7,18.93 -2028,4th,21.06,58.94,20.0 -2028,5th,21.37,64.93,13.7 -2028,6th,22.73,68.74,8.53 -2028,7th,17.45,68.46,14.09 -2028,8th,19.19,69.58,11.23 -2028,9th,20.23,47.97,31.8 -2028,10th,51.24,21.78,26.98 -2028,All,26.47,54.19,19.34 -2029,1st,28.19,45.13,26.68 -2029,2nd,39.52,53.03,7.44 -2029,3rd,21.04,73.91,5.05 -2029,4th,20.39,73.95,5.66 -2029,5th,22.34,71.54,6.12 -2029,6th,23.2,72.92,3.88 -2029,7th,18.51,79.26,2.23 -2029,8th,26.0,70.15,3.84 -2029,9th,47.82,45.34,6.84 -2029,10th,71.61,24.85,3.54 -2029,All,31.94,60.24,7.82 -2030,1st,29.51,59.0,11.49 -2030,2nd,29.57,57.56,12.87 -2030,3rd,21.04,77.44,1.52 -2030,4th,20.45,77.58,1.97 -2030,5th,22.27,72.12,5.61 -2030,6th,23.41,72.65,3.94 -2030,7th,18.23,79.56,2.21 -2030,8th,27.71,70.25,2.04 -2030,9th,45.95,47.17,6.88 -2030,10th,71.87,23.95,4.18 -2030,All,31.09,63.21,5.7 +2026,1st,99.06,0.94,0.01 +2026,2nd,99.7,0.3,0.0 +2026,3rd,99.78,0.22,0.0 +2026,4th,99.97,0.03,0.0 +2026,5th,99.66,0.34,0.0 +2026,6th,99.77,0.23,-0.0 +2026,7th,99.48,0.52,-0.0 +2026,8th,99.92,0.08,0.0 +2026,9th,99.79,0.21,0.0 +2026,10th,99.62,0.38,-0.0 +2026,All,99.57,0.41,0.01 +2027,1st,98.75,1.23,0.03 +2027,2nd,99.55,0.45,0.0 +2027,3rd,99.61,0.39,0.0 +2027,4th,99.92,0.08,0.0 +2027,5th,99.46,0.54,0.0 +2027,6th,99.77,0.23,0.0 +2027,7th,99.93,0.07,0.0 +2027,8th,99.4,0.6,0.0 +2027,9th,99.79,0.21,-0.0 +2027,10th,99.64,0.36,-0.0 +2027,All,99.47,0.52,0.02 +2028,1st,98.77,1.2,0.03 +2028,2nd,99.58,0.42,0.0 +2028,3rd,99.63,0.36,0.0 +2028,4th,99.92,0.08,0.0 +2028,5th,99.48,0.52,0.0 +2028,6th,99.68,0.32,-0.0 +2028,7th,99.86,0.14,0.0 +2028,8th,99.02,0.98,0.0 +2028,9th,99.23,0.77,-0.0 +2028,10th,98.36,1.64,0.0 +2028,All,99.24,0.74,0.01 +2029,1st,98.66,1.3,0.05 +2029,2nd,99.55,0.42,0.02 +2029,3rd,99.62,0.38,0.0 +2029,4th,99.82,0.11,0.07 +2029,5th,99.48,0.52,0.0 +2029,6th,99.69,0.31,-0.0 +2029,7th,99.86,0.14,-0.0 +2029,8th,99.13,0.87,-0.0 +2029,9th,99.22,0.78,-0.0 +2029,10th,97.69,2.31,0.0 +2029,All,99.15,0.82,0.02 +2030,1st,93.51,6.1,0.39 +2030,2nd,98.97,1.03,0.0 +2030,3rd,99.52,0.45,0.03 +2030,4th,99.6,0.3,0.1 +2030,5th,99.17,0.82,0.02 +2030,6th,99.61,0.37,0.03 +2030,7th,99.74,0.26,0.0 +2030,8th,99.28,0.72,-0.0 +2030,9th,99.65,0.35,0.0 +2030,10th,99.19,0.81,-0.0 +2030,All,98.58,1.34,0.08 diff --git a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx index 427ee6b..1171bb3 100644 --- a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx +++ b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx @@ -241,7 +241,8 @@ function WinnersLosersChart({ data, year }) { axisLine={false} width={48} allowDecimals={false} - tickCount={6} + domain={[-60, 60]} + ticks={[-60, -40, -20, 0, 20, 40, 60]} /> - - list[dict]: baseline, reformed = _create_simulations() + deflator = get_real_deflator(year) baseline_income = baseline.calculate("household_net_income", year) reform_income_raw = reformed.calculate("household_net_income", year) income_decile = baseline.calculate("household_income_decile", year) # API v2: reform MicroSeries uses baseline weights + # Deflate reform income to baseline price level (real terms) reform_income = mdf.MicroSeries( - reform_income_raw.values, weights=baseline_income.weights + reform_income_raw.values * deflator, weights=baseline_income.weights ) valid = np.array(income_decile) >= 0 @@ -175,11 +177,15 @@ class InequalityCalculator: def calculate(self, year: int) -> list[dict]: baseline, reformed = _create_simulations() + deflator = get_real_deflator(year) results = [] for sim, label in [(baseline, "baseline"), (reformed, "reform")]: income = sim.calculate("equiv_household_net_income", year) income_vals = income.values.copy() + # Deflate reform income to baseline price level (real terms) + if label == "reform": + income_vals = income_vals * deflator income_vals[income_vals < 0] = 0 hh_count = sim.calculate("household_count_people", year) @@ -244,14 +250,16 @@ class IntraDecileCalculator: def calculate(self, year: int) -> list[dict]: baseline, reformed = _create_simulations() + deflator = get_real_deflator(year) baseline_income = baseline.calculate("household_net_income", year) reform_income_raw = reformed.calculate("household_net_income", year) income_decile = baseline.calculate("household_income_decile", year) hh_count_people = baseline.calculate("household_count_people", year) + # Deflate reform income to baseline price level (real terms) reform_income = mdf.MicroSeries( - reform_income_raw.values, weights=baseline_income.weights + reform_income_raw.values * deflator, weights=baseline_income.weights ) # API v2 percentage change @@ -305,6 +313,7 @@ class DetailedBudgetaryImpactCalculator: def calculate(self, year: int) -> list[dict]: baseline, reformed = _create_simulations() + deflator = get_real_deflator(year) results = [] for program_name, info in UK_PROGRAMS.items(): @@ -317,14 +326,16 @@ def calculate(self, year: int) -> list[dict]: except Exception: continue + # Deflate reform value to baseline price level (real terms) + r_val_real = r_val * deflator sign = 1 if is_tax else -1 - difference = sign * (r_val - b_val) / 1e6 + difference = sign * (r_val_real - b_val) / 1e6 results.append({ "year": year, "program": program_name, "baseline": float(b_val / 1e6), - "reform": float(r_val / 1e6), + "reform": float(r_val_real / 1e6), "difference": float(difference), }) @@ -338,12 +349,16 @@ class WinnersLosersCalculator: def calculate(self, year: int) -> list[dict]: baseline, reformed = _create_simulations() + deflator = get_real_deflator(year) baseline_income = baseline.calculate("household_net_income", year) reformed_income = reformed.calculate("household_net_income", year) income_decile = baseline.calculate("household_income_decile", year) - change = reformed_income - baseline_income + # Deflate reform income to baseline price level (real terms) + change = mdf.MicroSeries( + reformed_income.values * deflator, weights=reformed_income.weights + ) - baseline_income weights = np.array(baseline_income.weights) change_arr = np.array(change) decile_arr = np.array(income_decile) @@ -395,6 +410,7 @@ class HouseholdScatterCalculator: def calculate(self, year: int) -> pd.DataFrame: baseline, reformed = _create_simulations() + deflator = get_real_deflator(year) baseline_income = np.array( baseline.calculate("household_net_income", year) @@ -406,7 +422,8 @@ def calculate(self, year: int) -> pd.DataFrame: baseline.calculate("household_income_decile", year) ) - change = reformed_income - baseline_income + # Deflate reform income to baseline price level (real terms) + change = reformed_income * deflator - baseline_income mask = baseline_income <= self.MAX_INCOME df = pd.DataFrame({ @@ -436,13 +453,15 @@ def calculate( constituency_df: pd.DataFrame, ) -> list[dict]: baseline, reformed = _create_simulations() + deflator = get_real_deflator(year) baseline_income = np.array( baseline.calculate("household_net_income", year) ) + # Deflate reform income to baseline price level (real terms) reformed_income = np.array( reformed.calculate("household_net_income", year) - ) + ) * deflator results = [] diff --git a/src/spring_statement_data/pipeline.py b/src/spring_statement_data/pipeline.py index a1cc933..f2dd3fd 100644 --- a/src/spring_statement_data/pipeline.py +++ b/src/spring_statement_data/pipeline.py @@ -24,6 +24,8 @@ from .reforms import ( DEFAULT_YEARS, generate_economic_forecast_json, + get_pre_statement_scenario, + get_real_deflator, save_economic_forecast_json, ) @@ -150,9 +152,104 @@ def generate_all_data( if len(df) > 0: _save_csv(df, output_dir / f"{name}.csv") + # Household archetypes (stats + comparison JSONs) + _generate_household_archetypes(output_dir, year=2029) + print(f"\nAll data saved to {output_dir}/") return results +# Household type classification +_HH_GROUPS = [ + "Single adult, no children", + "Couple, no children", + "Single parent", + "Couple with children", + "Single pensioner", + "Pensioner couple", +] + + +def _classify_household(sim, year): + """Return an array classifying each household into an archetype group. + + All variables mapped to household level for consistent shapes. + """ + # num_adults/num_children are benunit-level; map to household + n_adults = np.array(sim.calculate("num_adults", year, map_to="household")) + n_children = np.array(sim.calculate("num_children", year, map_to="household")) + # is_SP_age is person-level; map_to="household" gives max across members + is_sp_age = np.array( + sim.calculate("is_SP_age", year, map_to="household") + ).astype(bool) + + groups = np.full(len(n_adults), "", dtype=object) + groups[(n_adults == 1) & (n_children == 0) & (~is_sp_age)] = "Single adult, no children" + groups[(n_adults >= 2) & (n_children == 0) & (~is_sp_age)] = "Couple, no children" + groups[(n_adults == 1) & (n_children > 0)] = "Single parent" + groups[(n_adults >= 2) & (n_children > 0)] = "Couple with children" + groups[(n_adults == 1) & (n_children == 0) & is_sp_age] = "Single pensioner" + groups[(n_adults >= 2) & (n_children == 0) & is_sp_age] = "Pensioner couple" + return groups + + +def _generate_household_archetypes(output_dir: Path, year: int = 2029): + """Generate household_stats.json and household_comparison.json (real terms).""" + from policyengine_uk import Microsimulation + import microdf as mdf + + deflator = get_real_deflator(year) + scenario = get_pre_statement_scenario() + baseline = Microsimulation(scenario=scenario) + reformed = Microsimulation() + + groups = _classify_household(baseline, year) + baseline_hnet = baseline.calculate("household_net_income", year) + reform_hnet_raw = reformed.calculate("household_net_income", year) + # Deflate reform to baseline prices + reform_hnet = mdf.MicroSeries( + reform_hnet_raw.values * deflator, weights=baseline_hnet.weights + ) + weights = np.array(baseline_hnet.weights) + + stats = [] + comparison = [] + + for group in _HH_GROUPS: + mask = groups == group + if not mask.any(): + continue + + b_inc = baseline_hnet[mask] + r_inc = reform_hnet[mask] + w = weights[mask] + + mean_b = float(b_inc.mean()) + mean_r = float(r_inc.mean()) + median_b = float(b_inc.median()) + weighted_n = float(w.sum()) + + stats.append({ + "group": group, + "mean_hnet": round(mean_b), + "median_hnet": round(median_b), + "weighted_n": round(weighted_n), + }) + comparison.append({ + "group": group, + "baseline_hnet": round(mean_b), + "reformed_hnet": round(mean_r), + "change": round(mean_r - mean_b), + }) + + output_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + with open(output_dir / "household_stats.json", "w") as f: + json.dump(stats, f, indent=2) + print(f"Saved: {output_dir / 'household_stats.json'}") + with open(output_dir / "household_comparison.json", "w") as f: + json.dump(comparison, f, indent=2) + print(f"Saved: {output_dir / 'household_comparison.json'}") + + if __name__ == "__main__": generate_all_data() diff --git a/src/spring_statement_data/reforms.py b/src/spring_statement_data/reforms.py index 288ff1c..6d2d6ca 100644 --- a/src/spring_statement_data/reforms.py +++ b/src/spring_statement_data/reforms.py @@ -135,6 +135,35 @@ def get_pre_statement_scenario() -> Scenario: get_reform_scenario = get_pre_statement_scenario +# ============================================================================= +# Real-terms deflator: convert reform (March 2026) nominal £ to baseline +# (November 2025) price levels. +# +# For year Y the cumulative price index from 2025 base is: +# P(Y) = product of (1 + cpi[t]) for t in 2025..Y +# The deflator to express reform income in baseline prices is: +# deflator(Y) = P_baseline(Y) / P_reform(Y) +# ============================================================================= + +_CPI_PATH = "gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr.consumer_price_index" +_NOV_CPI = {int(k[:4]): v for k, v in _NOVEMBER_2025[_CPI_PATH].items()} +_MAR_CPI = {int(k[:4]): v for k, v in _MARCH_2026[_CPI_PATH].items()} + + +def get_real_deflator(year: int) -> float: + """Return the deflator to convert reform nominal £ to baseline prices. + + Multiplying reform income by this deflator expresses it in the same + price level as the baseline, enabling a real-terms comparison. + """ + baseline_cumulative = 1.0 + reform_cumulative = 1.0 + for y in range(2025, year + 1): + baseline_cumulative *= 1 + _NOV_CPI.get(y, 0) + reform_cumulative *= 1 + _MAR_CPI.get(y, 0) + return baseline_cumulative / reform_cumulative + + def generate_economic_forecast_json() -> dict: """Generate the JSON data structure for the economic forecast tab. From 8be198059099cf08cd78fd05468e2a52682dfe0e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Vahid Ahmadi Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 17:59:33 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 03/27] Add nominal/real terms toggle to Population Impact tab All calculators now output both nominal (raw cash) and real (CPI-deflated) values with _nominal/_real suffixed fields. A toggle switch in the Population Impact tab lets users switch between the two views across all charts, tables, and household archetypes. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 --- public/data/detailed_budgetary_impact.csv | 102 +- public/data/distributional_impact.csv | 112 +- public/data/household_comparison.json | 36 +- public/data/household_scatter.csv | 4002 ++++++++++----------- public/data/inequality.csv | 32 +- public/data/intra_decile.csv | 552 +-- public/data/winners_losers.csv | 112 +- src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx | 9 +- src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx | 32 +- src/components/InequalityTable.jsx | 8 +- src/components/IntraDecileChart.jsx | 6 +- src/components/PopulationTab.jsx | 74 +- src/spring_statement_data/calculators.py | 328 +- src/spring_statement_data/pipeline.py | 22 +- 14 files changed, 2772 insertions(+), 2655 deletions(-) diff --git a/public/data/detailed_budgetary_impact.csv b/public/data/detailed_budgetary_impact.csv index d511327..e341a2f 100644 --- a/public/data/detailed_budgetary_impact.csv +++ b/public/data/detailed_budgetary_impact.csv @@ -1,51 +1,51 @@ -year,program,baseline,reform,difference -2026,income_tax,304730.8439144392,305427.89749162976,697.0535771905518 -2026,national_insurance,55737.99965794466,56267.29693563733,529.2972776926728 -2026,vat,200835.8714179344,201286.53518834984,450.6637704154358 -2026,council_tax,60664.11190772149,60800.23857278495,136.1266650634613 -2026,fuel_duty,35463.747557224386,35543.32610100924,79.57854378485108 -2026,tax_credits,5290.852230760112,5298.570811028624,-7.718580268511772 -2026,universal_credit,80892.74900119173,81049.20505113692,-156.45604994519044 -2026,child_benefit,15611.400307538195,15638.857231790797,-27.456924252601624 -2026,state_pension,122078.41468818983,122450.37254797234,-371.9578597825012 -2026,pension_credit,5972.874071519186,5968.2920624910275,4.582009028158188 -2027,income_tax,320908.0067779534,321717.4635745019,809.456796548462 -2027,national_insurance,58186.76532734835,57619.28767012086,-567.4776572274933 -2027,vat,205610.5477711693,206112.33189174294,501.7841205736389 -2027,council_tax,64519.435719095694,64676.892759423434,157.4570403277359 -2027,fuel_duty,40246.61442554191,40344.834639653025,98.22021411110687 -2027,tax_credits,5436.194798181148,5429.805059009157,6.389739171991348 -2027,universal_credit,82995.18245214972,83108.37099457203,-113.18854242231751 -2027,child_benefit,16057.736020704735,16060.860024407364,-3.124003702629089 -2027,state_pension,125938.71122687338,126451.67987781255,-512.9686509391632 -2027,pension_credit,6085.320196301552,6038.782454830866,46.53774147068596 -2028,income_tax,335134.91884455556,336114.63439301826,979.7155484627075 -2028,national_insurance,58915.746722880016,58973.04180023156,57.29507735154724 -2028,vat,210561.63934467576,211158.2811098437,596.6417651679383 -2028,council_tax,68699.73700763391,68894.40272396467,194.66571633074952 -2028,fuel_duty,42787.86606888584,42909.10860868826,121.24253980241394 -2028,tax_credits,5555.893679060627,5549.689348338523,6.204330722104072 -2028,universal_credit,85295.01359726118,85439.92419530608,-144.91059804492187 -2028,child_benefit,16447.663123018487,16454.03031610377,-6.367193085283279 -2028,state_pension,129121.12650330196,129698.32224880336,-577.1957455014038 -2028,pension_credit,6174.526047702704,6125.959120087079,48.56692761562538 -2029,income_tax,350155.8273071976,351318.2711626836,1162.4438554859619 -2029,national_insurance,61384.56714483321,61973.50327638133,588.9361315481262 -2029,vat,215717.8752039614,216413.96249155086,696.0872875894776 -2029,council_tax,72862.3997553772,73097.51513543104,235.11538005381774 -2029,fuel_duty,45125.56573567095,45271.178762056385,145.61302638542938 -2029,tax_credits,5682.515596333218,5674.82065940145,7.694936931768417 -2029,universal_credit,87912.83786355042,88084.97821014124,-172.14034659082031 -2029,child_benefit,16857.063952252585,16863.547604199277,-6.483651946691513 -2029,state_pension,132446.50504959468,133091.88869399074,-645.3836443960877 -2029,pension_credit,6239.735857206298,6185.511262115627,54.22459509067154 -2030,income_tax,367081.0083849407,368299.4630860246,1218.4547010839233 -2030,national_insurance,62611.38354587946,63615.76613793348,1004.3825920540237 -2030,vat,221022.3838654562,221735.58795916426,713.2040937080384 -2030,council_tax,77210.71335799992,77459.86005473704,249.14669673712157 -2030,fuel_duty,47578.74239954073,47732.2714370046,153.52903746386718 -2030,tax_credits,5803.93303676049,5792.285102837289,11.647933923200608 -2030,universal_credit,89749.45900276749,89781.63668747373,-32.17768470623779 -2030,child_benefit,17278.36202601888,17278.186627495856,0.175398523021698 -2030,state_pension,135881.71015803205,136544.8224659856,-663.1123079535676 -2030,pension_credit,5770.899498894896,5706.201847895772,64.69765099912453 +year,program,baseline,reform_nominal,reform_real,difference_nominal,difference_real +2026,income_tax,304730.8439144392,304744.0698935997,305427.89749162976,13.225979160522462,697.0535771905518 +2026,national_insurance,55737.99965794466,56141.3191489743,56267.29693563733,403.3194910296402,529.2972776926728 +2026,vat,200835.8714179344,200835.8714179344,201286.53518834984,0.0,450.6637704154358 +2026,council_tax,60664.11190772149,60664.11190772149,60800.23857278495,0.0,136.1266650634613 +2026,fuel_duty,35463.747557224386,35463.747557224386,35543.32610100924,0.0,79.57854378485108 +2026,tax_credits,5290.852230760112,5286.707752740712,5298.570811028624,4.144478019400597,-7.718580268511772 +2026,universal_credit,80892.74900119173,80867.7426383464,81049.20505113692,25.006362845321654,-156.45604994519044 +2026,child_benefit,15611.400307538195,15603.84313430796,15638.857231790797,7.557173230236053,-27.456924252601624 +2026,state_pension,122078.41468818983,122176.21637289779,122450.37254797234,-97.80168470796204,-371.9578597825012 +2026,pension_credit,5972.874071519186,5954.92955415779,5968.2920624910275,17.944517361395835,4.582009028158188 +2027,income_tax,320908.0067779534,320934.23671441426,321717.4635745019,26.22993646081543,809.456796548462 +2027,national_insurance,58186.76532734835,57479.012494316165,57619.28767012086,-707.7528330321884,-567.4776572274933 +2027,vat,205610.5477711693,205610.5477711693,206112.33189174294,0.0,501.7841205736389 +2027,council_tax,64519.435719095694,64519.435719095694,64676.892759423434,0.0,157.4570403277359 +2027,fuel_duty,40246.61442554191,40246.61442554191,40344.834639653025,0.0,98.22021411110687 +2027,tax_credits,5436.194798181148,5416.586102475047,5429.805059009157,19.60869570610237,6.389739171991348 +2027,universal_credit,82995.18245214972,82906.04219420836,83108.37099457203,89.14025794136047,-113.18854242231751 +2027,child_benefit,16057.736020704735,16021.75957636995,16060.860024407364,35.97644433478546,-3.124003702629089 +2027,state_pension,125938.71122687338,126143.831024713,126451.67987781255,-205.11979783961488,-512.9686509391632 +2027,pension_credit,6085.320196301552,6024.0809320465605,6038.782454830866,61.23926425499153,46.53774147068596 +2028,income_tax,335134.91884455556,335164.9201421303,336114.63439301826,30.001297574768067,979.7155484627075 +2028,national_insurance,58915.746722880016,58806.409548955045,58973.04180023156,-109.3371739249649,57.29507735154724 +2028,vat,210561.63934467576,210561.63934467576,211158.2811098437,0.0,596.6417651679383 +2028,council_tax,68699.73700763391,68699.73700763391,68894.40272396467,0.0,194.66571633074952 +2028,fuel_duty,42787.86606888584,42787.86606888584,42909.10860868826,0.0,121.24253980241394 +2028,tax_credits,5555.893679060627,5534.008332033964,5549.689348338523,21.88534702666378,6.204330722104072 +2028,universal_credit,85295.01359726118,85198.50800779137,85439.92419530608,96.50558946980286,-144.91059804492187 +2028,child_benefit,16447.663123018487,16407.538359263017,16454.03031610377,40.124763755470276,-6.367193085283279 +2028,state_pension,129121.12650330196,129331.85101443302,129698.32224880336,-210.72451113105774,-577.1957455014038 +2028,pension_credit,6174.526047702704,6108.649815220868,6125.959120087079,65.87623248183633,48.56692761562538 +2029,income_tax,350155.8273071976,350188.269292015,351318.2711626836,32.44198481738281,1162.4438554859619 +2029,national_insurance,61384.56714483321,61774.167857809356,61973.50327638133,389.60071297615053,588.9361315481262 +2029,vat,215717.8752039614,215717.8752039614,216413.96249155086,0.0,696.0872875894776 +2029,council_tax,72862.3997553772,72862.3997553772,73097.51513543104,0.0,235.11538005381774 +2029,fuel_duty,45125.56573567095,45125.56573567095,45271.178762056385,0.0,145.61302638542938 +2029,tax_credits,5682.515596333218,5656.567814368341,5674.82065940145,25.947781964878082,7.694936931768417 +2029,universal_credit,87912.83786355042,87801.65622456431,88084.97821014124,111.18163898609924,-172.14034659082031 +2029,child_benefit,16857.063952252585,16809.306644069908,16863.547604199277,47.75730818267822,-6.483651946691513 +2029,state_pension,132446.50504959468,132663.80369090423,133091.88869399074,-217.2986413095703,-645.3836443960877 +2029,pension_credit,6239.735857206298,6165.61580016285,6185.511262115627,74.12005704344749,54.22459509067154 +2030,income_tax,367081.0083849407,367114.8418567441,368299.4630860246,33.833471803405764,1218.4547010839233 +2030,national_insurance,62611.38354587946,63411.14844326598,63615.76613793348,799.7648973865204,1004.3825920540237 +2030,vat,221022.3838654562,221022.3838654562,221735.58795916426,0.0,713.2040937080384 +2030,council_tax,77210.71335799992,77210.71335799992,77459.86005473704,0.0,249.14669673712157 +2030,fuel_duty,47578.74239954073,47578.74239954073,47732.2714370046,0.0,153.52903746386718 +2030,tax_credits,5803.93303676049,5773.654437884992,5792.285102837289,30.278598875496865,11.647933923200608 +2030,universal_credit,89749.45900276749,89492.85746436992,89781.63668747373,256.60153839756777,-32.17768470623779 +2030,child_benefit,17278.36202601888,17222.61199670249,17278.186627495856,55.75002931639099,0.175398523021698 +2030,state_pension,135881.71015803205,136105.63123261754,136544.8224659856,-223.92107458551024,-663.1123079535676 +2030,pension_credit,5770.899498894896,5687.848066462216,5706.201847895772,83.05143243268108,64.69765099912453 diff --git a/public/data/distributional_impact.csv b/public/data/distributional_impact.csv index 8771e61..60e39fb 100644 --- a/public/data/distributional_impact.csv +++ b/public/data/distributional_impact.csv @@ -1,56 +1,56 @@ -year,decile,absolute_change,relative_change -2026,1st,45.92,0.2284 -2026,2nd,69.9,0.2274 -2026,3rd,82.74,0.2233 -2026,4th,94.46,0.2227 -2026,5th,102.52,0.2237 -2026,6th,117.14,0.2239 -2026,7th,124.42,0.2246 -2026,8th,150.17,0.2279 -2026,9th,169.7,0.2327 -2026,10th,148.3,0.1181 -2026,All,108.64,0.201 -2027,1st,47.71,0.2349 -2027,2nd,71.29,0.2284 -2027,3rd,83.42,0.2228 -2027,4th,97.45,0.2249 -2027,5th,105.16,0.2257 -2027,6th,124.03,0.2337 -2027,7th,129.59,0.2295 -2027,8th,160.6,0.2398 -2027,9th,182.59,0.2472 -2027,10th,527.02,0.4129 -2027,All,151.38,0.2757 -2028,1st,55.92,0.2719 -2028,2nd,82.93,0.2633 -2028,3rd,98.3,0.2572 -2028,4th,115.46,0.2618 -2028,5th,122.9,0.2599 -2028,6th,146.04,0.2701 -2028,7th,151.38,0.2637 -2028,8th,185.72,0.2738 -2028,9th,205.74,0.2744 -2028,10th,416.14,0.3179 -2028,All,155.79,0.279 -2029,1st,63.81,0.3064 -2029,2nd,94.51,0.2947 -2029,3rd,111.51,0.2882 -2029,4th,131.9,0.296 -2029,5th,141.84,0.2936 -2029,6th,167.16,0.3054 -2029,7th,174.14,0.2993 -2029,8th,213.33,0.3117 -2029,9th,236.32,0.3097 -2029,10th,323.16,0.2426 -2029,All,163.17,0.2879 -2030,1st,56.41,0.2689 -2030,2nd,87.02,0.268 -2030,3rd,105.42,0.2679 -2030,4th,126.03,0.2796 -2030,5th,137.64,0.2797 -2030,6th,168.17,0.2977 -2030,7th,171.08,0.2913 -2030,8th,216.57,0.311 -2030,9th,242.48,0.315 -2030,10th,194.5,0.1429 -2030,All,147.74,0.2562 +year,decile,absolute_change_nominal,absolute_change_real,relative_change_nominal,relative_change_real +2026,1st,0.8,45.92,0.004,0.2284 +2026,2nd,0.91,69.9,0.003,0.2274 +2026,3rd,-0.4,82.74,-0.0011,0.2233 +2026,4th,-0.71,94.46,-0.0017,0.2227 +2026,5th,-0.31,102.52,-0.0007,0.2237 +2026,6th,-0.24,117.14,-0.0005,0.2239 +2026,7th,0.12,124.42,0.0002,0.2246 +2026,8th,2.27,150.17,0.0034,0.2279 +2026,9th,6.03,169.7,0.0083,0.2327 +2026,10th,-133.24,148.3,-0.1061,0.1181 +2026,All,-12.6,108.64,-0.0233,0.201 +2027,1st,-1.86,47.71,-0.0091,0.2349 +2027,2nd,-4.87,71.29,-0.0156,0.2284 +2027,3rd,-7.93,83.42,-0.0212,0.2228 +2027,4th,-8.27,97.45,-0.0191,0.2249 +2027,5th,-8.51,105.16,-0.0183,0.2257 +2027,6th,-5.5,124.03,-0.0104,0.2337 +2027,7th,-8.21,129.59,-0.0145,0.2295 +2027,8th,-2.83,160.6,-0.0042,0.2398 +2027,9th,2.31,182.59,0.0031,0.2472 +2027,10th,215.04,527.02,0.1685,0.4129 +2027,All,17.32,151.38,0.0315,0.2757 +2028,1st,-2.34,55.92,-0.0114,0.2719 +2028,2nd,-6.29,82.93,-0.02,0.2633 +2028,3rd,-9.98,98.3,-0.0261,0.2572 +2028,4th,-9.5,115.46,-0.0215,0.2618 +2028,5th,-11.09,122.9,-0.0234,0.2599 +2028,6th,-7.13,146.04,-0.0132,0.2701 +2028,7th,-11.27,151.38,-0.0196,0.2637 +2028,8th,-6.48,185.72,-0.0096,0.2738 +2028,9th,-6.72,205.74,-0.009,0.2744 +2028,10th,45.12,416.14,0.0345,0.3179 +2028,All,-2.41,155.79,-0.0043,0.279 +2029,1st,-3.38,63.81,-0.0162,0.3064 +2029,2nd,-8.95,94.51,-0.0279,0.2947 +2029,3rd,-13.32,111.51,-0.0344,0.2882 +2029,4th,-11.85,131.9,-0.0266,0.296 +2029,5th,-13.98,141.84,-0.0289,0.2936 +2029,6th,-9.44,167.16,-0.0172,0.3054 +2029,7th,-13.57,174.14,-0.0233,0.2993 +2029,8th,-7.53,213.33,-0.011,0.3117 +2029,9th,-9.85,236.32,-0.0129,0.3097 +2029,10th,-106.31,323.16,-0.0798,0.2426 +2029,All,-19.66,163.17,-0.0347,0.2879 +2030,1st,-11.24,56.41,-0.0536,0.2689 +2030,2nd,-17.71,87.02,-0.0545,0.268 +2030,3rd,-21.49,105.42,-0.0546,0.2679 +2030,4th,-19.37,126.03,-0.043,0.2796 +2030,5th,-21.09,137.64,-0.0429,0.2797 +2030,6th,-14.06,168.17,-0.0249,0.2977 +2030,7th,-18.37,171.08,-0.0313,0.2913 +2030,8th,-8.13,216.57,-0.0117,0.311 +2030,9th,-5.89,242.48,-0.0076,0.315 +2030,10th,-244.06,194.5,-0.1793,0.1429 +2030,All,-38.21,147.74,-0.0663,0.2562 diff --git a/public/data/household_comparison.json b/public/data/household_comparison.json index 46d2b16..dcfe15e 100644 --- a/public/data/household_comparison.json +++ b/public/data/household_comparison.json @@ -2,37 +2,49 @@ { "group": "Single adult, no children", "baseline_hnet": 28974, - "reformed_hnet": 29055, - "change": 81 + "reformed_hnet_nominal": 28961, + "reformed_hnet_real": 29055, + "change_nominal": -12, + "change_real": 81 }, { "group": "Couple, no children", "baseline_hnet": 73700, - "reformed_hnet": 73920, - "change": 220 + "reformed_hnet_nominal": 73682, + "reformed_hnet_real": 73920, + "change_nominal": -18, + "change_real": 220 }, { "group": "Single parent", "baseline_hnet": 39720, - "reformed_hnet": 39806, - "change": 86 + "reformed_hnet_nominal": 39678, + "reformed_hnet_real": 39806, + "change_nominal": -42, + "change_real": 86 }, { "group": "Couple with children", "baseline_hnet": 79390, - "reformed_hnet": 79596, - "change": 206 + "reformed_hnet_nominal": 79340, + "reformed_hnet_real": 79596, + "change_nominal": -50, + "change_real": 206 }, { "group": "Single pensioner", "baseline_hnet": 27058, - "reformed_hnet": 27144, - "change": 86 + "reformed_hnet_nominal": 27057, + "reformed_hnet_real": 27144, + "change_nominal": -1, + "change_real": 86 }, { "group": "Pensioner couple", "baseline_hnet": 55211, - "reformed_hnet": 55401, - "change": 190 + "reformed_hnet_nominal": 55223, + "reformed_hnet_real": 55401, + "change_nominal": 11, + "change_real": 190 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/public/data/household_scatter.csv b/public/data/household_scatter.csv index aba645a..29c8925 100644 --- a/public/data/household_scatter.csv +++ b/public/data/household_scatter.csv @@ -1,2001 +1,2001 @@ -baseline_income,net_impact,decile -35805.17,85.6875,2 -29820.436,74.25781,7 -102840.32,227.84375,7 -69916.83,169.09375,6 -15916.681,29.92871,1 -42595.555,100.58594,8 -65239.54,161.07812,8 -104945.01,233.70312,2 -51208.535,114.91016,10 -55919.9,119.46094,7 -30429.137,75.625,5 -135596.16,304.28125,7 -20806.479,44.89258,7 -13078.849,29.348633,1 -116075.5,260.47656,10 -18695.453,51.132812,1 -30978.37,84.19922,3 -42565.406,83.98828,5 -23564.305,52.878906,4 -42916.14,108.953125,1 -22150.89,52.29492,1 -40623.48,91.16016,2 -84449.85,189.50781,9 -2352.5312,5.2790527,-1 -37328.547,83.765625,7 -33948.074,74.59766,1 -57971.812,129.40625,7 -46734.543,103.03125,8 -41799.32,92.66797,2 -92012.12,200.67969,2 -19430.791,52.78125,2 -30755.68,69.015625,6 -84916.31,211.84375,8 -72437.234,153.24219,4 -55010.758,595.8047,10 -64008.523,143.63672,9 -30798.252,76.40039,3 -53932.46,133.5,2 --6965.043,-15.629395,1 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-2027,gini,0.2842003744929869,0.28455186506251473 -2027,top_10_pct_share,0.24025349142671878,0.24053465310337077 -2027,top_1_pct_share,0.06382009081093477,0.06412096496680546 -2028,gini,0.28588488792559646,0.2860221525953312 -2028,top_10_pct_share,0.2425271346494153,0.24252669040666622 -2028,top_1_pct_share,0.06496273311571045,0.06503612900666308 -2029,gini,0.2868648845495297,0.28679039846730625 -2029,top_10_pct_share,0.24169740521303365,0.24152175091444492 -2029,top_1_pct_share,0.06443141788046869,0.06437224753543995 -2030,gini,0.2891819010569601,0.28900092473370537 -2030,top_10_pct_share,0.2432481679345802,0.2428751885181598 -2030,top_1_pct_share,0.06536563048246652,0.06506871310408356 +year,metric,baseline,reform_nominal,reform_real +2026,gini,0.28291195949308817,0.282743616786075,0.28274361710762097 +2026,top_10_pct_share,0.24028316663722432,0.24014494548121476,0.2401449460329027 +2026,top_1_pct_share,0.06448224582651775,0.06423838226543441,0.06423838265557502 +2027,gini,0.2842003744929869,0.2845518649059099,0.28455186506251473 +2027,top_10_pct_share,0.24025349142671878,0.2405346533086001,0.24053465310337077 +2027,top_1_pct_share,0.06382009081093477,0.06412096507564989,0.06412096496680546 +2028,gini,0.28588488792559646,0.2860221529330154,0.2860221525953312 +2028,top_10_pct_share,0.2425271346494153,0.24252668996899426,0.24252669040666622 +2028,top_1_pct_share,0.06496273311571045,0.06503612888528176,0.06503612900666308 +2029,gini,0.2868648845495297,0.2867903987629185,0.28679039846730625 +2029,top_10_pct_share,0.24169740521303365,0.24152175080891358,0.24152175091444492 +2029,top_1_pct_share,0.06443141788046869,0.06437224754283671,0.06437224753543995 +2030,gini,0.2891819010569601,0.2890009249391396,0.28900092473370537 +2030,top_10_pct_share,0.2432481679345802,0.24287518823126414,0.2428751885181598 +2030,top_1_pct_share,0.06536563048246652,0.06506871296817356,0.06506871310408356 diff --git a/public/data/intra_decile.csv b/public/data/intra_decile.csv index 2825cd9..d14a34f 100644 --- a/public/data/intra_decile.csv +++ b/public/data/intra_decile.csv @@ -1,276 +1,276 @@ -year,decile,outcome,share -2026,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.006608994418726888 -2026,1st,Lose less than 5%,8.593977223123586e-05 -2026,1st,No change,6.903075557791696e-05 -2026,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.9931024242010589 -2026,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0001336108524050545 -2026,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.003121838444757266 -2026,2nd,Lose less than 5%,6.434787639647734e-06 -2026,2nd,No change,1.924011334725069e-06 -2026,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.9965318279553941 -2026,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.00033797480087424523 -2026,3rd,Lose more than 5%,0.001895574943696338 -2026,3rd,Lose less than 5%,4.661377387530178e-06 -2026,3rd,No change,0.0 -2026,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.9976055750192712 -2026,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0004941886596449675 -2026,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.00027543157478920937 -2026,4th,Lose less than 5%,4.2397743959283015e-06 -2026,4th,No change,0.0 -2026,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.9991164064824325 -2026,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0006039221683823755 -2026,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.005143136495937747 -2026,5th,Lose less than 5%,1.1559802943861926e-05 -2026,5th,No change,6.899625671729878e-06 -2026,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.9948299886545624 -2026,5th,Gain more than 5%,8.41542088423726e-06 -2026,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.001069300681372733 -2026,6th,Lose less than 5%,7.463930312546496e-05 -2026,6th,No change,0.0 -2026,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.9988560600155018 -2026,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2026,7th,Lose more than 5%,0.0068698602829670614 -2026,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2026,7th,No change,4.680255314399224e-06 -2026,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.9931254594617185 -2026,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2026,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.000675023679748858 -2026,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2026,8th,No change,0.0 -2026,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.9993249763202512 -2026,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2026,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.0019045815499914463 -2026,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2026,9th,No change,0.0 -2026,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.9980474280335193 -2026,9th,Gain more than 5%,4.7990416489217476e-05 -2026,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.005092091099581802 -2026,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2026,10th,No change,0.0 -2026,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.987704586101295 -2026,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.007203322799123181 -2026,All,Lose more than 5%,0.003265583317156935 -2026,All,Lose less than 5%,1.8747481772366896e-05 -2026,All,No change,8.253464789877114e-06 -2026,All,Gain less than 5%,0.9958244732245005 -2026,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0008829425117803278 -2027,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.006794743452123105 -2027,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.0016105920113064355 -2027,1st,No change,0.011877679537775328 -2027,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.9795190230645271 -2027,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.00019796193426793566 -2027,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.0031005818958020973 -2027,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.0010601583196033603 -2027,2nd,No change,0.0021085370233856985 -2027,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.9933779210727625 -2027,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.00035280168844641356 -2027,3rd,Lose more than 5%,0.0018960935439802339 -2027,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.0011899996858940852 -2027,3rd,No change,0.0029335970649420023 -2027,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.9932814495549407 -2027,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0006988601502429873 -2027,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.0002794035605248458 -2027,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.00010591863726052218 -2027,4th,No change,0.0017501797566236617 -2027,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.9972587840582883 -2027,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0006057139873026753 -2027,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.005154512932525929 -2027,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.00013949087322671404 -2027,5th,No change,0.0021422475046182447 -2027,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.9925553398720003 -2027,5th,Gain more than 5%,8.408817628802254e-06 -2027,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.0010660291903206401 -2027,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.00026007355570818996 -2027,6th,No change,0.0004859625996210145 -2027,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.9981733099756536 -2027,6th,Gain more than 5%,1.4624678696588497e-05 -2027,7th,Lose more than 5%,0.0003816202450854556 -2027,7th,Lose less than 5%,2.106328800157162e-05 -2027,7th,No change,0.001230144627282173 -2027,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.9983671718396308 -2027,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2027,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.007078815730515027 -2027,8th,Lose less than 5%,1.507535307830526e-05 -2027,8th,No change,0.00011330535718496086 -2027,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.9927928035592217 -2027,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2027,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.0019110891744820763 -2027,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.0 -2027,9th,No change,0.0 -2027,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.9980889108255179 -2027,9th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2027,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.00012816438036027916 -2027,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.0037380605043602186 -2027,10th,No change,0.0 -2027,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.9911509047757974 -2027,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.004982870339482141 -2027,All,Lose more than 5%,0.002779105410571969 -2027,All,Lose less than 5%,0.0008140432228439402 -2027,All,No change,0.0022641653471433083 -2027,All,Gain less than 5%,0.993456561859834 -2027,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0006861241596067543 -2028,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.007030485222404763 -2028,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.0014972768435386802 -2028,1st,No change,0.007675937014807524 -2028,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.9835231812122941 -2028,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0002731197069550333 -2028,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.003142490833452881 -2028,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.0008761723826488992 -2028,2nd,No change,0.0006241385933613018 -2028,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.9949913277714026 -2028,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.0003658704191342674 -2028,3rd,Lose more than 5%,0.0018798566582885435 -2028,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.0010956470737670842 -2028,3rd,No change,0.000986113578949313 -2028,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.9955520515495314 -2028,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0004863311394635953 -2028,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.00028368168594097105 -2028,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.00015944105049225458 -2028,4th,No change,0.0008473557638996621 -2028,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.9980912955000104 -2028,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0006182259996566861 -2028,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.005203471982964503 -2028,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.0017230852646105354 -2028,5th,No change,0.0013492333262705358 -2028,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.9917158144658534 -2028,5th,Gain more than 5%,8.394960300971674e-06 -2028,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.0010708294816319265 -2028,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.0013264438431045329 -2028,6th,No change,0.00022305048050096527 -2028,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.9971777037164588 -2028,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.00020197247830378433 -2028,7th,Lose more than 5%,0.00038101897676330436 -2028,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.0014999830774201624 -2028,7th,No change,0.0018971595501798787 -2028,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.9957214217081428 -2028,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0005004166874937839 -2028,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.007163951049838422 -2028,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.005474244750328056 -2028,8th,No change,0.000563404625975731 -2028,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.9867983995738578 -2028,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2028,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.001874977596516371 -2028,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.006207101402641376 -2028,9th,No change,0.0020278817889371964 -2028,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.9898900392119051 -2028,9th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2028,10th,Lose more than 5%,9.31823328772447e-05 -2028,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.016022068903582553 -2028,10th,No change,0.0027301981650263182 -2028,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.9727533894507321 -2028,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.008401161147781782 -2028,All,Lose more than 5%,0.002812394582067893 -2028,All,Lose less than 5%,0.0035881464592134133 -2028,All,No change,0.0018924472887908428 -2028,All,Gain less than 5%,0.9906214624160189 -2028,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0010855492539089905 -2029,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.007056757304222985 -2029,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.0023805952845082847 -2029,1st,No change,0.006760371042412917 -2029,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.9835098254261163 -2029,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0002924509427396195 -2029,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.003130727976984368 -2029,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.0008967131975259401 -2029,2nd,No change,0.0017643084113826088 -2029,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.9938354579225517 -2029,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.0003727924915554152 -2029,3rd,Lose more than 5%,0.0018746171824131593 -2029,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.0010771006200073906 -2029,3rd,No change,0.0016070181548459054 -2029,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.9949545656448584 -2029,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.00048669839787516276 -2029,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.0009664573620171193 -2029,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.0002301997151190937 -2029,4th,No change,0.0007291628121151789 -2029,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.9980635569440711 -2029,4th,Gain more than 5%,1.0623166677520937e-05 -2029,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.0052849048204539366 -2029,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.0014945244077486004 -2029,5th,No change,0.0014792369374133664 -2029,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.9914237696308374 -2029,5th,Gain more than 5%,0.00031756420354670054 -2029,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.0010705158794036649 -2029,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.001494575676786953 -2029,6th,No change,0.0003344513290333887 -2029,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.9969005642266973 -2029,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.00019989288807869136 -2029,7th,Lose more than 5%,0.00037897579176928423 -2029,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.001495598889040784 -2029,7th,No change,0.001715075732250962 -2029,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.9958910081604675 -2029,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0005193414264715159 -2029,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.007115508781694153 -2029,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.0036012452370948345 -2029,8th,No change,0.0006446966969010995 -2029,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.9886385492843099 -2029,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2029,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.0018827852876894273 -2029,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.007527855235325684 -2029,9th,No change,0.002143097088197329 -2029,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.9884462623887875 -2029,9th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2029,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.0073153260965019866 -2029,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.02064344507276128 -2029,10th,No change,0.002587889328737388 -2029,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.9694356113960588 -2029,10th,Gain more than 5%,1.7728105940507652e-05 -2029,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0036076576483150082 -2029,All,Lose less than 5%,0.004084185333591885 -2029,All,No change,0.0019765307533290144 -2029,All,Gain less than 5%,0.9901099171024755 -2029,All,Gain more than 5%,0.00022170916228851336 -2030,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.009981678519646264 -2030,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.018566029838154016 -2030,1st,No change,0.03952756063558715 -2030,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.9313032624097936 -2030,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0006214685968189083 -2030,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.0017260018808812514 -2030,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.0024909806756010324 -2030,2nd,No change,0.022315271906860168 -2030,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.9730138013924053 -2030,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.00045394414425217153 -2030,3rd,Lose more than 5%,0.0019014769347659131 -2030,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.002184884704962728 -2030,3rd,No change,0.013810948910244352 -2030,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.981595692626561 -2030,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0005069968234660295 -2030,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.0009603102566584665 -2030,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.0012202083769424557 -2030,4th,No change,0.01286024631119734 -2030,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.9849486115038896 -2030,4th,Gain more than 5%,1.0623551312220122e-05 -2030,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.0052941982702948065 -2030,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.0013789468725536461 -2030,5th,No change,0.009525752222997109 -2030,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.9836942741695501 -2030,5th,Gain more than 5%,0.00010682846460416513 -2030,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.001072838255882483 -2030,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.000757405905371799 -2030,6th,No change,0.0034890587150824943 -2030,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.9944804059280914 -2030,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.00020029119557178276 -2030,7th,Lose more than 5%,0.0004158463378664391 -2030,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.0020682367537168808 -2030,7th,No change,0.0027493748744337495 -2030,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.9942450827845694 -2030,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0005214592494136039 -2030,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.007157741171641648 -2030,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.0022594798834732885 -2030,8th,No change,0.0004544083488383072 -2030,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.9899417250219127 -2030,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0001866455741340386 -2030,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.0018930031312206612 -2030,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.00236534655579776 -2030,9th,No change,0.0013050251757604357 -2030,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.9944366251372212 -2030,9th,Gain more than 5%,0.0 -2030,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.005106681505243886 -2030,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.004620157391600785 -2030,10th,No change,0.00031402266347796935 -2030,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.9896455820544858 -2030,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.0003135563851915115 -2030,All,Lose more than 5%,0.003550977626410182 -2030,All,Lose less than 5%,0.00379116769581744 -2030,All,No change,0.010635166976447907 -2030,All,Gain less than 5%,0.981730506302848 -2030,All,Gain more than 5%,0.00029218139847644317 +year,decile,outcome,share_nominal,share_real +2026,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.003588456128435063,0.006608994418726888 +2026,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.0040980518038138385,8.593977223123586e-05 +2026,1st,No change,0.9477600002451908,6.903075557791696e-05 +2026,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.04316734269823038,0.9931024242010589 +2026,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0013861491243300102,0.0001336108524050545 +2026,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.0014519814345184962,0.003121838444757266 +2026,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.00152994179735113,6.434787639647734e-06 +2026,2nd,No change,0.9763020334870605,1.924011334725069e-06 +2026,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.019278491166723834,0.9965318279553941 +2026,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.0014375521143460287,0.00033797480087424523 +2026,3rd,Lose more than 5%,1.134064713466854e-05,0.001895574943696338 +2026,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.0015791426335324097,4.661377387530178e-06 +2026,3rd,No change,0.9851807796384523,0.0 +2026,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.010861547930898451,0.9976055750192712 +2026,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0023671891499821365,0.0004941886596449675 +2026,4th,Lose more than 5%,1.352600574963601e-05,0.00027543157478920937 +2026,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.0003390258063541088,4.2397743959283015e-06 +2026,4th,No change,0.997294759099829,0.0 +2026,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.0015196415025011908,0.9991164064824325 +2026,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0008330475855660725,0.0006039221683823755 +2026,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.0051356091973205975,0.005143136495937747 +2026,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.0009182962414090315,1.1559802943861926e-05 +2026,5th,No change,0.9916329829786502,6.899625671729878e-06 +2026,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.0022977545785939444,0.9948299886545624 +2026,5th,Gain more than 5%,1.5357004026221944e-05,8.41542088423726e-06 +2026,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.0001034603029005416,0.001069300681372733 +2026,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.0003948357108072325,7.463930312546496e-05 +2026,6th,No change,0.9970526853233909,0.0 +2026,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.0022032321426259088,0.9988560600155018 +2026,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.0002457865202754973,0.0 +2026,7th,Lose more than 5%,0.006701531753188732,0.0068698602829670614 +2026,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.00020084146290064484,0.0 +2026,7th,No change,0.9872816377986482,4.680255314399224e-06 +2026,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.005649270609415134,0.9931254594617185 +2026,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0001667183758472417,0.0 +2026,8th,Lose more than 5%,7.885230298477537e-05,0.000675023679748858 +2026,8th,Lose less than 5%,1.600165143458112e-05,0.0 +2026,8th,No change,0.9897843353128988,0.0 +2026,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.009524639355917736,0.9993249763202512 +2026,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0005961713767640827,0.0 +2026,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.0,0.0019045815499914463 +2026,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.0,0.0 +2026,9th,No change,0.9861350878257589,0.0 +2026,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.013862308570134794,0.9980474280335193 +2026,9th,Gain more than 5%,2.6036041063458904e-06,4.7990416489217476e-05 +2026,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.005089949299462445,0.005092091099581802 +2026,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.0,0.0 +2026,10th,No change,0.956282643195625,0.0 +2026,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.03236474862711772,0.987704586101295 +2026,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.006262658877794868,0.007203322799123181 +2026,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0022174707071694957,0.003265583317156935 +2026,All,Lose less than 5%,0.0009076137107602977,1.8747481772366896e-05 +2026,All,No change,0.9814706944905505,8.253464789877114e-06 +2026,All,Gain less than 5%,0.014072897718215908,0.9958244732245005 +2026,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0013313233733038506,0.0008829425117803278 +2027,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.0039047779593303724,0.006794743452123105 +2027,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.2910341384393943,0.0016105920113064355 +2027,1st,No change,0.5225717572364299,0.011877679537775328 +2027,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.1811943936550268,0.9795190230645271 +2027,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0012949327098185877,0.00019796193426793566 +2027,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.0014665986514748879,0.0031005818958020973 +2027,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.37947893500922103,0.0010601583196033603 +2027,2nd,No change,0.44241518271432184,0.0021085370233856985 +2027,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.17519080978879928,0.9933779210727625 +2027,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.0014484738361829942,0.00035280168844641356 +2027,3rd,Lose more than 5%,1.1377997708996649e-05,0.0018960935439802339 +2027,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.32037457302116984,0.0011899996858940852 +2027,3rd,No change,0.5684511027483009,0.0029335970649420023 +2027,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.10859031160768223,0.9932814495549407 +2027,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.002572634625138189,0.0006988601502429873 +2027,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.0002463074954584472,0.0002794035605248458 +2027,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.2681531522530694,0.00010591863726052218 +2027,4th,No change,0.6518901302254578,0.0017501797566236617 +2027,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.07910469603871159,0.9972587840582883 +2027,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0006057139873026753,0.0006057139873026753 +2027,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.005143827901174483,0.005154512932525929 +2027,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.2235366319021381,0.00013949087322671404 +2027,5th,No change,0.7288277378236272,0.0021422475046182447 +2027,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.04248061406204653,0.9925553398720003 +2027,5th,Gain more than 5%,1.1188311013705845e-05,8.408817628802254e-06 +2027,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.00010187716925605217,0.0010660291903206401 +2027,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.12199957542685184,0.00026007355570818996 +2027,6th,No change,0.8433435425804002,0.0004859625996210145 +2027,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.03429005089595294,0.9981733099756536 +2027,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.00026495392753897744,1.4624678696588497e-05 +2027,7th,Lose more than 5%,0.00020482778459988786,0.0003816202450854556 +2027,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.14020264919276448,2.106328800157162e-05 +2027,7th,No change,0.8381395583200397,0.001230144627282173 +2027,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.02128546277818536,0.9983671718396308 +2027,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.00016750192441054355,0.0 +2027,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.0064861918409962315,0.007078815730515027 +2027,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.06420511190322528,1.507535307830526e-05 +2027,8th,No change,0.9167701951809388,0.00011330535718496086 +2027,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.01194587718532085,0.9927928035592217 +2027,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0005926238895187958,0.0 +2027,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.0,0.0019110891744820763 +2027,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.02213026137145353,0.0 +2027,9th,No change,0.9708726052694878,0.0 +2027,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.006994520858798827,0.9980889108255179 +2027,9th,Gain more than 5%,2.6125002598258946e-06,0.0 +2027,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.0002697160729275004,0.00012816438036027916 +2027,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.029889163707232897,0.0037380605043602186 +2027,10th,No change,0.951680591728465,0.0 +2027,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.013175523493108847,0.9911509047757974 +2027,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.004985004998265785,0.004982870339482141 +2027,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0017835502872926858,0.002779105410571969 +2027,All,Lose less than 5%,0.18610041922265208,0.0008140432228439402 +2027,All,No change,0.743496240382747,0.0022641653471433083 +2027,All,Gain less than 5%,0.06742522603636332,0.993456561859834 +2027,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0011945640709450079,0.0006861241596067543 +2028,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.00412615585662092,0.007030485222404763 +2028,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.29299780165107403,0.0014972768435386802 +2028,1st,No change,0.5177895473827401,0.007675937014807524 +2028,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.18379174683628424,0.9835231812122941 +2028,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0012947482732808325,0.0002731197069550333 +2028,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.001672931242976737,0.003142490833452881 +2028,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.39543962306691377,0.0008761723826488992 +2028,2nd,No change,0.42651593403508303,0.0006241385933613018 +2028,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.1749127173157391,0.9949913277714026 +2028,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.0014587943392874113,0.0003658704191342674 +2028,3rd,Lose more than 5%,2.614464940352919e-05,0.0018798566582885435 +2028,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.3355061279825,0.0010956470737670842 +2028,3rd,No change,0.5563156035673287,0.000986113578949313 +2028,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.10581208065241922,0.9955520515495314 +2028,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0023400431483486094,0.0004863311394635953 +2028,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.00028368168594097105,0.00028368168594097105 +2028,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.2628442719683398,0.00015944105049225458 +2028,4th,No change,0.6556856008148754,0.0008473557638996621 +2028,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.08056821953118709,0.9980912955000104 +2028,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0006182259996566861,0.0006182259996566861 +2028,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.005200697070092856,0.005203471982964503 +2028,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.2622321371414398,0.0017230852646105354 +2028,5th,No change,0.6906965421761894,0.0013492333262705358 +2028,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.04185945373910528,0.9917158144658534 +2028,5th,Gain more than 5%,1.1169873172618614e-05,8.394960300971674e-06 +2028,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.0001996102037046133,0.0010708294816319265 +2028,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.13832375707947284,0.0013264438431045329 +2028,6th,No change,0.8275591119081064,0.00022305048050096527 +2028,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.0334675886594447,0.9971777037164588 +2028,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.00044993214927159113,0.00020197247830378433 +2028,7th,Lose more than 5%,1.4182604033877353e-05,0.00038101897676330436 +2028,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.1532502544217765,0.0014999830774201624 +2028,7th,No change,0.8263613520803271,0.0018971595501798787 +2028,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.019506957833639222,0.9957214217081428 +2028,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0008672530602232108,0.0005004166874937839 +2028,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.0065641998140156645,0.007163951049838422 +2028,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.058988756458410244,0.005474244750328056 +2028,8th,No change,0.9272874196375103,0.000563404625975731 +2028,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.006559872854241127,0.9867983995738578 +2028,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0005997512358227571,0.0 +2028,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.001615779841715802,0.001874977596516371 +2028,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.04824553204862797,0.006207101402641376 +2028,9th,No change,0.9488814156128869,0.0020278817889371964 +2028,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.0009980747419685947,0.9898900392119051 +2028,9th,Gain more than 5%,0.0002591977548005689,0.0 +2028,10th,Lose more than 5%,9.102661270972437e-05,9.31823328772447e-05 +2028,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.04716796900677017,0.016022068903582553 +2028,10th,No change,0.9418774892437634,0.0027301981650263182 +2028,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.004699751103663274,0.9727533894507321 +2028,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.006163764033093482,0.008401161147781782 +2028,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0019794409581214696,0.002812394582067893 +2028,All,Lose less than 5%,0.19949962308253252,0.0035881464592134133 +2028,All,No change,0.7318970016458811,0.0018924472887908428 +2028,All,Gain less than 5%,0.06521764632676917,0.9906214624160189 +2028,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0014062879866957767,0.0010855492539089905 +2029,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.00413630505008607,0.007056757304222985 +2029,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.2947764189908315,0.0023805952845082847 +2029,1st,No change,0.5097619563136442,0.006760371042412917 +2029,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.18991709447803665,0.9835098254261163 +2029,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.001408225167401707,0.0002924509427396195 +2029,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.0016677495436202522,0.003130727976984368 +2029,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.4305058519765534,0.0008967131975259401 +2029,2nd,No change,0.39125865548147387,0.0017643084113826088 +2029,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.17508474288307024,0.9938354579225517 +2029,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.0014830001152822216,0.0003727924915554152 +2029,3rd,Lose more than 5%,3.8900068363024575e-05,0.0018746171824131593 +2029,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.3585854820377803,0.0010771006200073906 +2029,3rd,No change,0.5366814780685879,0.0016070181548459054 +2029,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.10237172431334343,0.9949545656448584 +2029,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0023224155119252977,0.00048669839787516276 +2029,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.00036032579652245904,0.0009664573620171193 +2029,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.2749315598232694,0.0002301997151190937 +2029,4th,No change,0.6415720203645121,0.0007291628121151789 +2029,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.082519339283524,0.9980635569440711 +2029,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0006167547321721812,1.0623166677520937e-05 +2029,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.00528210160821089,0.0052849048204539366 +2029,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.2767344344623371,0.0014945244077486004 +2029,5th,No change,0.675180827967563,0.0014792369374133664 +2029,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.042482268546099204,0.9914237696308374 +2029,5th,Gain more than 5%,0.0003203674157897475,0.00031756420354670054 +2029,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.00019957177357058167,0.0010705158794036649 +2029,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.16115169643166669,0.001494575676786953 +2029,6th,No change,0.8051892538229417,0.0003344513290333887 +2029,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.033009687935410766,0.9969005642266973 +2029,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.00044979003641029973,0.00019989288807869136 +2029,7th,Lose more than 5%,1.410655115725516e-05,0.00037897579176928423 +2029,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.1552917192619132,0.001495598889040784 +2029,7th,No change,0.8249423233048077,0.001715075732250962 +2029,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.01886764021503835,0.9958910081604675 +2029,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0008842106670835449,0.0005193414264715159 +2029,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.006519813036798466,0.007115508781694153 +2029,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.062061948517701256,0.0036012452370948345 +2029,8th,No change,0.9174819464872851,0.0006446966969010995 +2029,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.013340596213319511,0.9886385492843099 +2029,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0005956957448956867,0.0 +2029,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.001622508194117665,0.0018827852876894273 +2029,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.05858450881835301,0.007527855235325684 +2029,9th,No change,0.9379172342671173,0.002143097088197329 +2029,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.0016154716268403577,0.9884462623887875 +2029,9th,Gain more than 5%,0.0002602770935717622,0.0 +2029,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.007733405936848057,0.0073153260965019866 +2029,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.05621531168835989,0.02064344507276128 +2029,10th,No change,0.9349590854045848,0.002587889328737388 +2029,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.0010723121198103595,0.9694356113960588 +2029,10th,Gain more than 5%,1.988485039683772e-05,1.7728105940507652e-05 +2029,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0027574787559294716,0.0036076576483150082 +2029,All,Lose less than 5%,0.21288389320087658,0.004084185333591885 +2029,All,No change,0.7174944781482517,0.0019765307533290144 +2029,All,Gain less than 5%,0.0660280877614493,0.9901099171024755 +2029,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0008360621334929286,0.00022170916228851336 +2030,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.0067005225549827685,0.009981678519646264 +2030,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.4519116964321259,0.018566029838154016 +2030,1st,No change,0.3403410303560371,0.03952756063558715 +2030,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.19914129099618627,0.9313032624097936 +2030,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0019054596606678013,0.0006214685968189083 +2030,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.0003184392090771974,0.0017260018808812514 +2030,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.4695644925821656,0.0024909806756010324 +2030,2nd,No change,0.3572827558234632,0.022315271906860168 +2030,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.17134022669472834,0.9730138013924053 +2030,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.001494085690565774,0.00045394414425217153 +2030,3rd,Lose more than 5%,4.5139820381744196e-05,0.0019014769347659131 +2030,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.43977712629951793,0.002184884704962728 +2030,3rd,No change,0.45444768621332776,0.013810948910244352 +2030,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.10336671372892235,0.981595692626561 +2030,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0023633339378501986,0.0005069968234660295 +2030,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.0008249493751393884,0.0009603102566584665 +2030,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.31039826589588787,0.0012202083769424557 +2030,4th,No change,0.6037219486037311,0.01286024631119734 +2030,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.08420715067676277,0.9849486115038896 +2030,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0008476854484788901,1.0623551312220122e-05 +2030,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.005283008574863911,0.0052941982702948065 +2030,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.2827558132059203,0.0013789468725536461 +2030,5th,No change,0.6679601735925388,0.009525752222997109 +2030,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.04388298646664175,0.9836942741695501 +2030,5th,Gain more than 5%,0.00011801816003505972,0.00010682846460416513 +2030,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.0002017735406128133,0.001072838255882483 +2030,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.17185140334571772,0.000757405905371799 +2030,6th,No change,0.7927301521250152,0.0034890587150824943 +2030,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.03476644803878442,0.9944804059280914 +2030,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.00045022294986978115,0.00020029119557178276 +2030,7th,Lose more than 5%,1.4164076802252751e-05,0.0004158463378664391 +2030,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.16597138341165873,0.0020682367537168808 +2030,7th,No change,0.8090797528725262,0.0027493748744337495 +2030,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.024011558128535303,0.9942450827845694 +2030,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0009231415104777902,0.0005214592494136039 +2030,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.00655850979215556,0.007157741171641648 +2030,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.07115092361187257,0.0022594798834732885 +2030,8th,No change,0.900739030833651,0.0004544083488383072 +2030,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.020765658808700686,0.9899417250219127 +2030,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0007858769536201272,0.0001866455741340386 +2030,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.0016313135207037773,0.0018930031312206612 +2030,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.05916048874876685,0.00236534655579776 +2030,9th,No change,0.9293155195296747,0.0013050251757604357 +2030,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.009630988590337789,0.9944366251372212 +2030,9th,Gain more than 5%,0.00026168961051688385,0.0 +2030,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.005104540968884547,0.005106681505243886 +2030,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.03264172216273909,0.004620157391600785 +2030,10th,No change,0.9525290576910078,0.00031402266347796935 +2030,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.009408982255817662,0.9896455820544858 +2030,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.00031569692155085025,0.0003135563851915115 +2030,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0026682361433603956,0.003550977626410182 +2030,All,Lose less than 5%,0.24551833156963726,0.00379116769581744 +2030,All,No change,0.6808147107640974,0.010635166976447907 +2030,All,Gain less than 5%,0.07005220043854174,0.981730506302848 +2030,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0009465210843633158,0.00029218139847644317 diff --git a/public/data/winners_losers.csv b/public/data/winners_losers.csv index dc24d94..9164b4e 100644 --- a/public/data/winners_losers.csv +++ b/public/data/winners_losers.csv @@ -1,56 +1,56 @@ -year,decile,pct_gaining,pct_losing,pct_unchanged -2026,1st,99.06,0.94,0.01 -2026,2nd,99.7,0.3,0.0 -2026,3rd,99.78,0.22,0.0 -2026,4th,99.97,0.03,0.0 -2026,5th,99.66,0.34,0.0 -2026,6th,99.77,0.23,-0.0 -2026,7th,99.48,0.52,-0.0 -2026,8th,99.92,0.08,0.0 -2026,9th,99.79,0.21,0.0 -2026,10th,99.62,0.38,-0.0 -2026,All,99.57,0.41,0.01 -2027,1st,98.75,1.23,0.03 -2027,2nd,99.55,0.45,0.0 -2027,3rd,99.61,0.39,0.0 -2027,4th,99.92,0.08,0.0 -2027,5th,99.46,0.54,0.0 -2027,6th,99.77,0.23,0.0 -2027,7th,99.93,0.07,0.0 -2027,8th,99.4,0.6,0.0 -2027,9th,99.79,0.21,-0.0 -2027,10th,99.64,0.36,-0.0 -2027,All,99.47,0.52,0.02 -2028,1st,98.77,1.2,0.03 -2028,2nd,99.58,0.42,0.0 -2028,3rd,99.63,0.36,0.0 -2028,4th,99.92,0.08,0.0 -2028,5th,99.48,0.52,0.0 -2028,6th,99.68,0.32,-0.0 -2028,7th,99.86,0.14,0.0 -2028,8th,99.02,0.98,0.0 -2028,9th,99.23,0.77,-0.0 -2028,10th,98.36,1.64,0.0 -2028,All,99.24,0.74,0.01 -2029,1st,98.66,1.3,0.05 -2029,2nd,99.55,0.42,0.02 -2029,3rd,99.62,0.38,0.0 -2029,4th,99.82,0.11,0.07 -2029,5th,99.48,0.52,0.0 -2029,6th,99.69,0.31,-0.0 -2029,7th,99.86,0.14,-0.0 -2029,8th,99.13,0.87,-0.0 -2029,9th,99.22,0.78,-0.0 -2029,10th,97.69,2.31,0.0 -2029,All,99.15,0.82,0.02 -2030,1st,93.51,6.1,0.39 -2030,2nd,98.97,1.03,0.0 -2030,3rd,99.52,0.45,0.03 -2030,4th,99.6,0.3,0.1 -2030,5th,99.17,0.82,0.02 -2030,6th,99.61,0.37,0.03 -2030,7th,99.74,0.26,0.0 -2030,8th,99.28,0.72,-0.0 -2030,9th,99.65,0.35,0.0 -2030,10th,99.19,0.81,-0.0 -2030,All,98.58,1.34,0.08 +year,decile,pct_gaining_nominal,pct_losing_nominal,pct_unchanged_nominal,pct_gaining_real,pct_losing_real,pct_unchanged_real +2026,1st,32.0,38.63,29.37,99.06,0.94,0.01 +2026,2nd,40.9,43.14,15.96,99.7,0.3,0.0 +2026,3rd,24.67,49.64,25.69,99.78,0.22,0.0 +2026,4th,19.55,49.71,30.74,99.97,0.03,0.0 +2026,5th,22.53,49.8,27.67,99.66,0.34,0.0 +2026,6th,22.78,44.21,33.01,99.77,0.23,-0.0 +2026,7th,19.32,45.52,35.17,99.48,0.52,-0.0 +2026,8th,15.68,38.53,45.8,99.92,0.08,0.0 +2026,9th,13.76,19.43,66.82,99.79,0.21,0.0 +2026,10th,18.4,16.03,65.57,99.62,0.38,-0.0 +2026,All,23.29,39.29,37.42,99.57,0.41,0.01 +2027,1st,26.82,43.32,29.85,98.75,1.23,0.03 +2027,2nd,40.61,44.97,14.42,99.55,0.45,0.0 +2027,3rd,21.94,50.68,27.38,99.61,0.39,0.0 +2027,4th,20.33,51.46,28.21,99.92,0.08,0.0 +2027,5th,21.23,52.04,26.73,99.46,0.54,0.0 +2027,6th,22.16,44.72,33.12,99.77,0.23,0.0 +2027,7th,16.56,50.68,32.77,99.93,0.07,0.0 +2027,8th,14.85,40.75,44.39,99.4,0.6,0.0 +2027,9th,12.19,23.59,64.22,99.79,0.21,-0.0 +2027,10th,17.32,19.26,63.42,99.64,0.36,-0.0 +2027,All,21.65,42.01,36.34,99.47,0.52,0.02 +2028,1st,27.14,42.92,29.94,98.77,1.2,0.03 +2028,2nd,39.93,46.86,13.2,99.58,0.42,0.0 +2028,3rd,22.36,58.7,18.93,99.63,0.36,0.0 +2028,4th,21.06,58.94,20.0,99.92,0.08,0.0 +2028,5th,21.37,64.93,13.7,99.48,0.52,0.0 +2028,6th,22.73,68.74,8.53,99.68,0.32,-0.0 +2028,7th,17.45,68.46,14.09,99.86,0.14,0.0 +2028,8th,19.19,69.58,11.23,99.02,0.98,0.0 +2028,9th,20.23,47.97,31.8,99.23,0.77,-0.0 +2028,10th,51.24,21.78,26.98,98.36,1.64,0.0 +2028,All,26.47,54.19,19.34,99.24,0.74,0.01 +2029,1st,28.19,45.13,26.68,98.66,1.3,0.05 +2029,2nd,39.52,53.03,7.44,99.55,0.42,0.02 +2029,3rd,21.04,73.91,5.05,99.62,0.38,0.0 +2029,4th,20.39,73.95,5.66,99.82,0.11,0.07 +2029,5th,22.34,71.54,6.12,99.48,0.52,0.0 +2029,6th,23.2,72.92,3.88,99.69,0.31,-0.0 +2029,7th,18.51,79.26,2.23,99.86,0.14,-0.0 +2029,8th,26.0,70.15,3.84,99.13,0.87,-0.0 +2029,9th,47.82,45.34,6.84,99.22,0.78,-0.0 +2029,10th,71.61,24.85,3.54,97.69,2.31,0.0 +2029,All,31.94,60.24,7.82,99.15,0.82,0.02 +2030,1st,29.51,59.0,11.49,93.51,6.1,0.39 +2030,2nd,29.57,57.56,12.87,98.97,1.03,0.0 +2030,3rd,21.04,77.44,1.52,99.52,0.45,0.03 +2030,4th,20.45,77.58,1.97,99.6,0.3,0.1 +2030,5th,22.27,72.12,5.61,99.17,0.82,0.02 +2030,6th,23.41,72.65,3.94,99.61,0.37,0.03 +2030,7th,18.23,79.56,2.21,99.74,0.26,0.0 +2030,8th,27.71,70.25,2.04,99.28,0.72,-0.0 +2030,9th,45.95,47.17,6.88,99.65,0.35,0.0 +2030,10th,71.87,23.95,4.18,99.19,0.81,-0.0 +2030,All,31.09,63.21,5.7,98.58,1.34,0.08 diff --git a/src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx b/src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx index 6e58e0a..479dc12 100644 --- a/src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx +++ b/src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx @@ -70,9 +70,12 @@ const SPENDING_PROGRAMS = [ "pension_credit", ]; -export default function DetailedBudgetTable({ data, selectedYear }) { +export default function DetailedBudgetTable({ data, selectedYear, termsMode = "nominal" }) { if (!data) return null; + const reformField = `reform_${termsMode}`; + const differenceField = `difference_${termsMode}`; + const filtered = data.filter( (row) => parseInt(row.year) === selectedYear, ); @@ -107,8 +110,8 @@ export default function DetailedBudgetTable({ data, selectedYear }) { {PROGRAM_LABELS[row.program] || row.program} {formatValue(row.baseline)} - {formatValue(row.reform)} - {formatValue(row.difference)} + {formatValue(row[reformField])} + {formatValue(row[differenceField])} ))} diff --git a/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx b/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx index 1a61698..85622ea 100644 --- a/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx +++ b/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx @@ -34,11 +34,12 @@ function formatCurrencyChange(v) { return `${sign}\u00a3${Math.abs(v).toLocaleString("en-GB", { maximumFractionDigits: 0 })}`; } -function ChangeBarChart({ comparison }) { +function ChangeBarChart({ comparison, termsMode }) { + const changeField = `change_${termsMode}`; const chartData = comparison .map((d) => ({ group: shorten(d.group), - change: d.change, + change: d[changeField], })) .sort((a, b) => a.change - b.change); @@ -100,12 +101,13 @@ function ChangeBarChart({ comparison }) { ); } -function BaselineReformedChart({ comparison }) { +function BaselineReformedChart({ comparison, termsMode }) { + const reformedField = `reformed_hnet_${termsMode}`; const chartData = comparison .map((d) => ({ group: shorten(d.group), baseline: d.baseline_hnet, - reformed: d.reformed_hnet, + reformed: d[reformedField], })) .sort((a, b) => a.baseline - b.baseline); @@ -182,7 +184,10 @@ function BaselineReformedChart({ comparison }) { ); } -function HouseholdSummaryTable({ stats, comparison }) { +function HouseholdSummaryTable({ stats, comparison, termsMode }) { + const reformedField = `reformed_hnet_${termsMode}`; + const changeField = `change_${termsMode}`; + return (

Household income summary

@@ -202,10 +207,11 @@ function HouseholdSummaryTable({ stats, comparison }) { {stats.map((row) => { const comp = comparison.find((c) => c.group === row.group) || {}; + const change = comp[changeField]; const changeClass = - comp.change > 0 + change > 0 ? "change-positive" - : comp.change < 0 + : change < 0 ? "change-negative" : "change-zero"; return ( @@ -216,9 +222,9 @@ function HouseholdSummaryTable({ stats, comparison }) { {Math.round(row.weighted_n).toLocaleString("en-GB")} {formatCurrency(comp.baseline_hnet)} - {formatCurrency(comp.reformed_hnet)} + {formatCurrency(comp[reformedField])} - {formatCurrencyChange(comp.change)}/yr + {formatCurrencyChange(change)}/yr ); @@ -230,7 +236,7 @@ function HouseholdSummaryTable({ stats, comparison }) { ); } -export default function HouseholdArchetypes() { +export default function HouseholdArchetypes({ termsMode = "nominal" }) { const [stats, setStats] = useState(null); const [comparison, setComparison] = useState(null); @@ -268,11 +274,11 @@ export default function HouseholdArchetypes() {

- - + +
- +
); } diff --git a/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx b/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx index 74be3da..2f00603 100644 --- a/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx +++ b/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx @@ -37,9 +37,11 @@ const METRIC_LABELS = { top_1_pct_share: "Top 1% income share", }; -export default function InequalityTable({ data, selectedYear }) { +export default function InequalityTable({ data, selectedYear, termsMode = "nominal" }) { if (!data) return null; + const reformField = `reform_${termsMode}`; + const filtered = data.filter( (row) => parseInt(row.year) === selectedYear, ); @@ -99,10 +101,10 @@ export default function InequalityTable({ data, selectedYear }) { {formatValue(metric, row.baseline)} - {formatValue(metric, row.reform)} + {formatValue(metric, row[reformField])} - {formatChange(metric, row.baseline, row.reform)} + {formatChange(metric, row.baseline, row[reformField])} ); diff --git a/src/components/IntraDecileChart.jsx b/src/components/IntraDecileChart.jsx index a77d717..25b2172 100644 --- a/src/components/IntraDecileChart.jsx +++ b/src/components/IntraDecileChart.jsx @@ -28,9 +28,11 @@ const OUTCOME_ORDER = [ "Gain more than 5%", ]; -export default function IntraDecileChart({ data, selectedYear }) { +export default function IntraDecileChart({ data, selectedYear, termsMode = "nominal" }) { if (!data) return null; + const shareField = `share_${termsMode}`; + const filtered = data.filter( (row) => parseInt(row.year) === selectedYear && row.decile !== "All", @@ -49,7 +51,7 @@ export default function IntraDecileChart({ data, selectedYear }) { const row = filtered.find( (r) => r.decile === decile && r.outcome === outcome, ); - point[outcome] = row ? parseFloat(row.share) * 100 : 0; + point[outcome] = row ? parseFloat(row[shareField]) * 100 : 0; }); return point; }); diff --git a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx index 1171bb3..b57f273 100644 --- a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx +++ b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx @@ -24,7 +24,7 @@ const DECILE_ORDER = [ "6th", "7th", "8th", "9th", "10th", ]; -function MetricsBar({ metrics, winnersLosers, distributional, year }) { +function MetricsBar({ metrics, winnersLosers, distributional, year, termsMode }) { const cards = []; if (distributional && distributional.length > 0) { @@ -32,9 +32,10 @@ function MetricsBar({ metrics, winnersLosers, distributional, year }) { (d) => d.year === year && d.decile === "All", ); if (allRow) { + const absChange = allRow[`absolute_change_${termsMode}`]; cards.push({ label: "Average household impact", - value: `${allRow.absolute_change >= 0 ? "+" : ""}\u00a3${allRow.absolute_change.toFixed(0)}/year`, + value: `${absChange >= 0 ? "+" : ""}\u00a3${absChange.toFixed(0)}/year`, }); } } @@ -46,11 +47,11 @@ function MetricsBar({ metrics, winnersLosers, distributional, year }) { if (allRow) { cards.push({ label: "Households gaining", - value: `${allRow.pct_gaining.toFixed(1)}%`, + value: `${allRow[`pct_gaining_${termsMode}`].toFixed(1)}%`, }); cards.push({ label: "Households losing", - value: `${allRow.pct_losing.toFixed(1)}%`, + value: `${allRow[`pct_losing_${termsMode}`].toFixed(1)}%`, }); } } @@ -82,7 +83,7 @@ function MetricsBar({ metrics, winnersLosers, distributional, year }) { ); } -function DistributionalChart({ data, year }) { +function DistributionalChart({ data, year, termsMode }) { const chartData = useMemo(() => { if (!data || data.length === 0) return []; return data @@ -91,21 +92,23 @@ function DistributionalChart({ data, year }) { ) .map((d) => ({ decile: d.decile, - impact: d.absolute_change, + impact: d[`absolute_change_${termsMode}`], })) .sort( (a, b) => DECILE_ORDER.indexOf(a.decile) - DECILE_ORDER.indexOf(b.decile), ); - }, [data, year]); + }, [data, year, termsMode]); if (chartData.length === 0) return null; + const termsLabel = termsMode === "real" ? " (real terms)" : ""; + return (

Average annual impact by income decile

- Change in household net income ({"\u00a3"}/year), {year}- + Change in household net income{termsLabel} ({"\u00a3"}/year), {year}- {(year + 1).toString().slice(-2)}

@@ -187,7 +190,7 @@ function DistributionalChart({ data, year }) { ); } -function WinnersLosersChart({ data, year }) { +function WinnersLosersChart({ data, year, termsMode }) { const chartData = useMemo(() => { if (!data || data.length === 0) return []; return data @@ -196,15 +199,15 @@ function WinnersLosersChart({ data, year }) { ) .map((d) => ({ decile: d.decile, - gaining: d.pct_gaining, - losing: d.pct_losing ? -Math.abs(d.pct_losing) : 0, - unchanged: d.pct_unchanged || 0, + gaining: d[`pct_gaining_${termsMode}`], + losing: d[`pct_losing_${termsMode}`] ? -Math.abs(d[`pct_losing_${termsMode}`]) : 0, + unchanged: d[`pct_unchanged_${termsMode}`] || 0, })) .sort( (a, b) => DECILE_ORDER.indexOf(a.decile) - DECILE_ORDER.indexOf(b.decile), ); - }, [data, year]); + }, [data, year, termsMode]); if (chartData.length === 0) return null; @@ -282,6 +285,7 @@ function WinnersLosersChart({ data, year }) { export default function PopulationTab({ data }) { const [selectedYear, setSelectedYear] = useState(2026); + const [termsMode, setTermsMode] = useState("nominal"); const [extraData, setExtraData] = useState({ inequality: null, intraDecile: null, @@ -328,16 +332,33 @@ export default function PopulationTab({ data }) { return (
-
- {YEARS.map((year) => ( +
+
+ {YEARS.map((year) => ( + + ))} +
+ +
+ - ))} +
@@ -352,27 +374,37 @@ export default function PopulationTab({ data }) { )} {hasWinnersLosers && ( )}
+ + - +
); } diff --git a/src/spring_statement_data/calculators.py b/src/spring_statement_data/calculators.py index 25ea099..3be1832 100644 --- a/src/spring_statement_data/calculators.py +++ b/src/spring_statement_data/calculators.py @@ -5,6 +5,9 @@ Uses native MicroSeries from PolicyEngine — sim.calculate() returns MicroSeries with weights. + +All calculators output both nominal and real (CPI-deflated) values, +suffixed with _nominal and _real respectively. """ import microdf as mdf @@ -65,16 +68,21 @@ def calculate(self, year: int) -> list[dict]: reform_income_raw = reformed.calculate("household_net_income", year) income_decile = baseline.calculate("household_income_decile", year) - # API v2: reform MicroSeries uses baseline weights - # Deflate reform income to baseline price level (real terms) - reform_income = mdf.MicroSeries( + # Nominal: reform values at their own price level + reform_income_nominal = mdf.MicroSeries( + reform_income_raw.values, weights=baseline_income.weights + ) + # Real: deflate reform income to baseline price level + reform_income_real = mdf.MicroSeries( reform_income_raw.values * deflator, weights=baseline_income.weights ) valid = np.array(income_decile) >= 0 baseline_income = baseline_income[valid] - reform_income = reform_income[valid] - income_change = reform_income - baseline_income + reform_income_nominal = reform_income_nominal[valid] + reform_income_real = reform_income_real[valid] + income_change_nominal = reform_income_nominal - baseline_income + income_change_real = reform_income_real - baseline_income decile_values = income_decile[valid] results = [] @@ -84,28 +92,40 @@ def calculate(self, year: int) -> list[dict]: if not mask.any(): continue - change_sum = income_change[mask].sum() baseline_sum = baseline_income[mask].sum() - relative = (change_sum / baseline_sum) * 100 if baseline_sum > 0 else 0 - avg_change = income_change[mask].mean() + + change_sum_nom = income_change_nominal[mask].sum() + change_sum_real = income_change_real[mask].sum() + relative_nom = (change_sum_nom / baseline_sum) * 100 if baseline_sum > 0 else 0 + relative_real = (change_sum_real / baseline_sum) * 100 if baseline_sum > 0 else 0 + avg_change_nom = income_change_nominal[mask].mean() + avg_change_real = income_change_real[mask].mean() results.append({ "year": year, "decile": DECILE_LABELS[decile - 1], - "absolute_change": round(float(avg_change), 2), - "relative_change": round(float(relative), 4), + "absolute_change_nominal": round(float(avg_change_nom), 2), + "absolute_change_real": round(float(avg_change_real), 2), + "relative_change_nominal": round(float(relative_nom), 4), + "relative_change_real": round(float(relative_real), 4), }) - total_change = income_change.sum() + total_change_nom = income_change_nominal.sum() + total_change_real = income_change_real.sum() total_baseline = baseline_income.sum() - overall_relative = ( - (total_change / total_baseline) * 100 if total_baseline > 0 else 0 + overall_relative_nom = ( + (total_change_nom / total_baseline) * 100 if total_baseline > 0 else 0 + ) + overall_relative_real = ( + (total_change_real / total_baseline) * 100 if total_baseline > 0 else 0 ) results.append({ "year": year, "decile": "All", - "absolute_change": round(float(income_change.mean()), 2), - "relative_change": round(float(overall_relative), 4), + "absolute_change_nominal": round(float(income_change_nominal.mean()), 2), + "absolute_change_real": round(float(income_change_real.mean()), 2), + "relative_change_nominal": round(float(overall_relative_nom), 4), + "relative_change_real": round(float(overall_relative_real), 4), }) return results @@ -115,6 +135,7 @@ class MetricsCalculator: """Calculate summary metrics including poverty rates. Ensures reform MicroSeries uses baseline weights (API v2 parity). + Poverty rates are binary variables — no nominal/real distinction needed. """ def calculate(self, year: int) -> list[dict]: @@ -180,52 +201,61 @@ def calculate(self, year: int) -> list[dict]: deflator = get_real_deflator(year) results = [] - for sim, label in [(baseline, "baseline"), (reformed, "reform")]: - income = sim.calculate("equiv_household_net_income", year) - income_vals = income.values.copy() - # Deflate reform income to baseline price level (real terms) - if label == "reform": - income_vals = income_vals * deflator - income_vals[income_vals < 0] = 0 - - hh_count = sim.calculate("household_count_people", year) - original_weights = income.weights.copy() - - person_weights = original_weights * np.array(hh_count) - income_ms = mdf.MicroSeries(income_vals, weights=person_weights) - - gini = income_ms.gini() - in_top_10 = income_ms.decile_rank() == 10 - in_top_1 = income_ms.percentile_rank() == 100 - - income_hh = mdf.MicroSeries(income_vals, weights=original_weights) - total = income_hh.sum() - top_10_share = income_hh[in_top_10].sum() / total if total > 0 else 0 - top_1_share = income_hh[in_top_1].sum() / total if total > 0 else 0 - - for metric, value in [ - ("gini", gini), - ("top_10_pct_share", top_10_share), - ("top_1_pct_share", top_1_share), - ]: - results.append({ - "year": year, - "metric": metric, - label: float(value), - }) - - # Merge baseline and reform into single rows - merged = {} - for row in results: - key = row["metric"] - if key not in merged: - merged[key] = {"year": year, "metric": key} - if "baseline" in row: - merged[key]["baseline"] = row["baseline"] - if "reform" in row: - merged[key]["reform"] = row["reform"] + # Compute baseline once + b_income = baseline.calculate("equiv_household_net_income", year) + b_vals = b_income.values.copy() + b_vals[b_vals < 0] = 0 + b_hh_count = baseline.calculate("household_count_people", year) + b_original_weights = b_income.weights.copy() + b_person_weights = b_original_weights * np.array(b_hh_count) + + b_income_ms = mdf.MicroSeries(b_vals, weights=b_person_weights) + b_gini = b_income_ms.gini() + b_in_top_10 = b_income_ms.decile_rank() == 10 + b_in_top_1 = b_income_ms.percentile_rank() == 100 + b_income_hh = mdf.MicroSeries(b_vals, weights=b_original_weights) + b_total = b_income_hh.sum() + b_top_10_share = b_income_hh[b_in_top_10].sum() / b_total if b_total > 0 else 0 + b_top_1_share = b_income_hh[b_in_top_1].sum() / b_total if b_total > 0 else 0 + + # Compute reform for both nominal and real + r_income = reformed.calculate("equiv_household_net_income", year) + r_hh_count = reformed.calculate("household_count_people", year) + r_original_weights = r_income.weights.copy() + r_person_weights = r_original_weights * np.array(r_hh_count) + + reform_results = {} + for mode, factor in [("nominal", 1.0), ("real", deflator)]: + r_vals = r_income.values.copy() * factor + r_vals[r_vals < 0] = 0 + + r_income_ms = mdf.MicroSeries(r_vals, weights=r_person_weights) + r_gini = r_income_ms.gini() + r_in_top_10 = r_income_ms.decile_rank() == 10 + r_in_top_1 = r_income_ms.percentile_rank() == 100 + r_income_hh = mdf.MicroSeries(r_vals, weights=r_original_weights) + r_total = r_income_hh.sum() + r_top_10_share = r_income_hh[r_in_top_10].sum() / r_total if r_total > 0 else 0 + r_top_1_share = r_income_hh[r_in_top_1].sum() / r_total if r_total > 0 else 0 + + reform_results[mode] = { + "gini": r_gini, + "top_10_pct_share": r_top_10_share, + "top_1_pct_share": r_top_1_share, + } + + merged = [] + for metric in ["gini", "top_10_pct_share", "top_1_pct_share"]: + baseline_val = {"gini": b_gini, "top_10_pct_share": b_top_10_share, "top_1_pct_share": b_top_1_share}[metric] + merged.append({ + "year": year, + "metric": metric, + "baseline": float(baseline_val), + "reform_nominal": float(reform_results["nominal"][metric]), + "reform_real": float(reform_results["real"][metric]), + }) - return list(merged.values()) + return merged class IntraDecileCalculator: @@ -257,55 +287,67 @@ def calculate(self, year: int) -> list[dict]: income_decile = baseline.calculate("household_income_decile", year) hh_count_people = baseline.calculate("household_count_people", year) - # Deflate reform income to baseline price level (real terms) - reform_income = mdf.MicroSeries( - reform_income_raw.values * deflator, weights=baseline_income.weights - ) - - # API v2 percentage change - absolute_change = (reform_income - baseline_income).values - capped_baseline = np.maximum(baseline_income.values, 1) - capped_reform = np.maximum(reform_income.values, 1) + absolute_change - pct_change = (capped_reform - capped_baseline) / capped_baseline - people = mdf.MicroSeries( np.array(hh_count_people), weights=baseline_income.weights ) results = [] - all_decile_shares = [] - - for decile in range(1, 11): - in_decile = np.array(income_decile) == decile - decile_total = people[in_decile].sum() - decile_shares = {} - for i, label in enumerate(self.LABELS): - lower, upper = self.BOUNDS[i], self.BOUNDS[i + 1] - in_bin = (pct_change > lower) & (pct_change <= upper) - share = people[in_decile & in_bin].sum() / decile_total if decile_total > 0 else 0 - decile_shares[label] = share + for mode, factor in [("nominal", 1.0), ("real", deflator)]: + reform_income = mdf.MicroSeries( + reform_income_raw.values * factor, weights=baseline_income.weights + ) + # API v2 percentage change + absolute_change = (reform_income - baseline_income).values + capped_baseline = np.maximum(baseline_income.values, 1) + capped_reform = np.maximum(reform_income.values, 1) + absolute_change + pct_change = (capped_reform - capped_baseline) / capped_baseline + + all_decile_shares = [] + + for decile in range(1, 11): + in_decile = np.array(income_decile) == decile + decile_total = people[in_decile].sum() + + decile_shares = {} + for i, label in enumerate(self.LABELS): + lower, upper = self.BOUNDS[i], self.BOUNDS[i + 1] + in_bin = (pct_change > lower) & (pct_change <= upper) + share = people[in_decile & in_bin].sum() / decile_total if decile_total > 0 else 0 + decile_shares[label] = share + + results.append({ + "year": year, + "decile": DECILE_LABELS[decile - 1], + "outcome": label, + f"share_{mode}": float(share), + }) + + all_decile_shares.append(decile_shares) + + # "All" = mean of 10 decile proportions (API v2) + for label in self.LABELS: + mean_share = np.mean([d[label] for d in all_decile_shares]) results.append({ "year": year, - "decile": DECILE_LABELS[decile - 1], + "decile": "All", "outcome": label, - "share": float(share), + f"share_{mode}": float(mean_share), }) - all_decile_shares.append(decile_shares) - - # "All" = mean of 10 decile proportions (API v2) - for label in self.LABELS: - mean_share = np.mean([d[label] for d in all_decile_shares]) - results.append({ - "year": year, - "decile": "All", - "outcome": label, - "share": float(mean_share), - }) + # Merge nominal and real rows by (year, decile, outcome) + merged = {} + for row in results: + key = (row["year"], row["decile"], row["outcome"]) + if key not in merged: + merged[key] = {"year": row["year"], "decile": row["decile"], "outcome": row["outcome"]} + if "share_nominal" in row: + merged[key]["share_nominal"] = row["share_nominal"] + if "share_real" in row: + merged[key]["share_real"] = row["share_real"] - return results + return list(merged.values()) class DetailedBudgetaryImpactCalculator: @@ -326,17 +368,17 @@ def calculate(self, year: int) -> list[dict]: except Exception: continue - # Deflate reform value to baseline price level (real terms) r_val_real = r_val * deflator sign = 1 if is_tax else -1 - difference = sign * (r_val_real - b_val) / 1e6 results.append({ "year": year, "program": program_name, "baseline": float(b_val / 1e6), - "reform": float(r_val_real / 1e6), - "difference": float(difference), + "reform_nominal": float(r_val / 1e6), + "reform_real": float(r_val_real / 1e6), + "difference_nominal": float(sign * (r_val - b_val) / 1e6), + "difference_real": float(sign * (r_val_real - b_val) / 1e6), }) return results @@ -355,51 +397,60 @@ def calculate(self, year: int) -> list[dict]: reformed_income = reformed.calculate("household_net_income", year) income_decile = baseline.calculate("household_income_decile", year) - # Deflate reform income to baseline price level (real terms) - change = mdf.MicroSeries( - reformed_income.values * deflator, weights=reformed_income.weights - ) - baseline_income weights = np.array(baseline_income.weights) - change_arr = np.array(change) decile_arr = np.array(income_decile) results = [] - for decile in range(1, 11): - mask = decile_arr == decile - if not mask.any(): - continue + for mode, factor in [("nominal", 1.0), ("real", deflator)]: + change = mdf.MicroSeries( + reformed_income.values * factor, weights=reformed_income.weights + ) - baseline_income + change_arr = np.array(change) + + for decile in range(1, 11): + mask = decile_arr == decile + if not mask.any(): + continue + + w = weights[mask] + c = change_arr[mask] + total_w = w.sum() + + gaining = (w * (c > self.THRESHOLD)).sum() / total_w * 100 + losing = (w * (c < -self.THRESHOLD)).sum() / total_w * 100 + unchanged = 100.0 - gaining - losing - w = weights[mask] - c = change_arr[mask] - total_w = w.sum() + results.append({ + "year": year, + "decile": DECILE_LABELS[decile - 1], + f"pct_gaining_{mode}": round(gaining, 2), + f"pct_losing_{mode}": round(losing, 2), + f"pct_unchanged_{mode}": round(unchanged, 2), + }) - gaining = (w * (c > self.THRESHOLD)).sum() / total_w * 100 - losing = (w * (c < -self.THRESHOLD)).sum() / total_w * 100 + total_w = weights.sum() + gaining = (weights * (change_arr > self.THRESHOLD)).sum() / total_w * 100 + losing = (weights * (change_arr < -self.THRESHOLD)).sum() / total_w * 100 unchanged = 100.0 - gaining - losing results.append({ "year": year, - "decile": DECILE_LABELS[decile - 1], - "pct_gaining": round(gaining, 2), - "pct_losing": round(losing, 2), - "pct_unchanged": round(unchanged, 2), + "decile": "All", + f"pct_gaining_{mode}": round(gaining, 2), + f"pct_losing_{mode}": round(losing, 2), + f"pct_unchanged_{mode}": round(unchanged, 2), }) - total_w = weights.sum() - gaining = (weights * (change_arr > self.THRESHOLD)).sum() / total_w * 100 - losing = (weights * (change_arr < -self.THRESHOLD)).sum() / total_w * 100 - unchanged = 100.0 - gaining - losing - - results.append({ - "year": year, - "decile": "All", - "pct_gaining": round(gaining, 2), - "pct_losing": round(losing, 2), - "pct_unchanged": round(unchanged, 2), - }) + # Merge nominal and real rows by (year, decile) + merged = {} + for row in results: + key = (row["year"], row["decile"]) + if key not in merged: + merged[key] = {"year": row["year"], "decile": row["decile"]} + merged[key].update({k: v for k, v in row.items() if k not in ("year", "decile")}) - return results + return list(merged.values()) class HouseholdScatterCalculator: @@ -422,13 +473,14 @@ def calculate(self, year: int) -> pd.DataFrame: baseline.calculate("household_income_decile", year) ) - # Deflate reform income to baseline price level (real terms) - change = reformed_income * deflator - baseline_income + change_nominal = reformed_income - baseline_income + change_real = reformed_income * deflator - baseline_income mask = baseline_income <= self.MAX_INCOME df = pd.DataFrame({ "baseline_income": baseline_income[mask], - "net_impact": change[mask], + "net_impact_nominal": change_nominal[mask], + "net_impact_real": change_real[mask], "decile": income_decile[mask], }) @@ -458,10 +510,10 @@ def calculate( baseline_income = np.array( baseline.calculate("household_net_income", year) ) - # Deflate reform income to baseline price level (real terms) reformed_income = np.array( reformed.calculate("household_net_income", year) - ) * deflator + ) + reformed_income_real = reformed_income * deflator results = [] @@ -474,10 +526,10 @@ def calculate( w = weights[idx, :] baseline_ms = mdf.MicroSeries(baseline_income, weights=w) - reform_ms = mdf.MicroSeries(reformed_income, weights=w) + reform_ms_real = mdf.MicroSeries(reformed_income_real, weights=w) baseline_sum = baseline_ms.sum() - reform_sum = reform_ms.sum() + reform_sum = reform_ms_real.sum() weighted_count = baseline_ms.count() avg_gain = ( diff --git a/src/spring_statement_data/pipeline.py b/src/spring_statement_data/pipeline.py index f2dd3fd..f4c948f 100644 --- a/src/spring_statement_data/pipeline.py +++ b/src/spring_statement_data/pipeline.py @@ -194,7 +194,7 @@ def _classify_household(sim, year): def _generate_household_archetypes(output_dir: Path, year: int = 2029): - """Generate household_stats.json and household_comparison.json (real terms).""" + """Generate household_stats.json and household_comparison.json (nominal + real).""" from policyengine_uk import Microsimulation import microdf as mdf @@ -206,8 +206,12 @@ def _generate_household_archetypes(output_dir: Path, year: int = 2029): groups = _classify_household(baseline, year) baseline_hnet = baseline.calculate("household_net_income", year) reform_hnet_raw = reformed.calculate("household_net_income", year) - # Deflate reform to baseline prices - reform_hnet = mdf.MicroSeries( + # Nominal: reform at its own price level + reform_hnet_nominal = mdf.MicroSeries( + reform_hnet_raw.values, weights=baseline_hnet.weights + ) + # Real: deflate reform to baseline prices + reform_hnet_real = mdf.MicroSeries( reform_hnet_raw.values * deflator, weights=baseline_hnet.weights ) weights = np.array(baseline_hnet.weights) @@ -221,11 +225,13 @@ def _generate_household_archetypes(output_dir: Path, year: int = 2029): continue b_inc = baseline_hnet[mask] - r_inc = reform_hnet[mask] + r_inc_nom = reform_hnet_nominal[mask] + r_inc_real = reform_hnet_real[mask] w = weights[mask] mean_b = float(b_inc.mean()) - mean_r = float(r_inc.mean()) + mean_r_nom = float(r_inc_nom.mean()) + mean_r_real = float(r_inc_real.mean()) median_b = float(b_inc.median()) weighted_n = float(w.sum()) @@ -238,8 +244,10 @@ def _generate_household_archetypes(output_dir: Path, year: int = 2029): comparison.append({ "group": group, "baseline_hnet": round(mean_b), - "reformed_hnet": round(mean_r), - "change": round(mean_r - mean_b), + "reformed_hnet_nominal": round(mean_r_nom), + "reformed_hnet_real": round(mean_r_real), + "change_nominal": round(mean_r_nom - mean_b), + "change_real": round(mean_r_real - mean_b), }) output_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) From 0fb870551ce4b844ca03eb03445d530565c3444c Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Vahid Ahmadi Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 18:03:51 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 04/27] edit --- src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx | 2 +- src/components/InequalityTable.jsx | 8 ++++---- src/components/PopulationTab.jsx | 14 +------------- 3 files changed, 6 insertions(+), 18 deletions(-) diff --git a/src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx b/src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx index 479dc12..76f275e 100644 --- a/src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx +++ b/src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx @@ -87,7 +87,7 @@ export default function DetailedBudgetTable({ data, selectedYear, termsMode = "n const v = parseFloat(value); if (Math.abs(v) < 0.5) return "\u00A30m"; const sign = v >= 0 ? "" : "-"; - return `${sign}\u00A3${Math.abs(v).toFixed(0)}m`; + return `${sign}\u00A3${Math.abs(v).toFixed(0).replace(/\B(?=(\d{3})+(?!\d))/g, ",")}m`; }; const renderGroup = (label, programs) => { diff --git a/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx b/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx index 2f00603..7d3d884 100644 --- a/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx +++ b/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx @@ -51,8 +51,8 @@ export default function InequalityTable({ data, selectedYear, termsMode = "nomin const formatValue = (metric, value) => { if (value == null || isNaN(value)) return "\u2014"; const v = parseFloat(value); - if (metric === "gini") return v.toFixed(4); - return `${(v * 100).toFixed(1)}%`; + if (metric === "gini") return v.toFixed(2); + return `${(v * 100).toFixed(2)}%`; }; const formatChange = (metric, baseline, reform) => { @@ -62,11 +62,11 @@ export default function InequalityTable({ data, selectedYear, termsMode = "nomin const diff = r - b; if (metric === "gini") { const sign = diff >= 0 ? "+" : ""; - return `${sign}${diff.toFixed(4)}`; + return `${sign}${diff.toFixed(2)}`; } const pctDiff = diff * 100; const sign = pctDiff >= 0 ? "+" : ""; - return `${sign}${pctDiff.toFixed(2)}pp`; + return `${sign}${pctDiff.toFixed(2)} pp`; }; return ( diff --git a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx index b57f273..a330a92 100644 --- a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx +++ b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx @@ -11,7 +11,6 @@ import { ResponsiveContainer, ReferenceLine, } from "recharts"; -import IntraDecileChart from "./IntraDecileChart"; import InequalityTable from "./InequalityTable"; import DetailedBudgetTable from "./DetailedBudgetTable"; import HouseholdArchetypes from "./HouseholdArchetypes"; @@ -288,7 +287,6 @@ export default function PopulationTab({ data }) { const [termsMode, setTermsMode] = useState("nominal"); const [extraData, setExtraData] = useState({ inequality: null, - intraDecile: null, detailedBudget: null, }); @@ -298,16 +296,12 @@ export default function PopulationTab({ data }) { fetch("/data/inequality.csv") .then((r) => (r.ok ? r.text() : null)) .catch(() => null), - fetch("/data/intra_decile.csv") - .then((r) => (r.ok ? r.text() : null)) - .catch(() => null), fetch("/data/detailed_budgetary_impact.csv") .then((r) => (r.ok ? r.text() : null)) .catch(() => null), - ]).then(([inequality, intraDecile, detailedBudget]) => { + ]).then(([inequality, detailedBudget]) => { setExtraData({ inequality: inequality ? parseCSV(inequality) : null, - intraDecile: intraDecile ? parseCSV(intraDecile) : null, detailedBudget: detailedBudget ? parseCSV(detailedBudget) : null, }); }); @@ -386,12 +380,6 @@ export default function PopulationTab({ data }) { )}
- - Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 18:07:10 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 05/27] edit --- app/App.css | 1 - src/components/PersonalTab.jsx | 4 ++-- src/components/PopulationTab.jsx | 4 ++-- 3 files changed, 4 insertions(+), 5 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/App.css b/app/App.css index 2a0bc55..579e72e 100644 --- a/app/App.css +++ b/app/App.css @@ -65,7 +65,6 @@ font-size: 1.05rem; line-height: 1.7; color: var(--pe-text-secondary); - max-width: 820px; margin-bottom: var(--pe-space-xl); animation: fadeIn 0.4s ease-out; } diff --git a/src/components/PersonalTab.jsx b/src/components/PersonalTab.jsx index ecbaaab..7a500d5 100644 --- a/src/components/PersonalTab.jsx +++ b/src/components/PersonalTab.jsx @@ -56,8 +56,8 @@ const TENURE_TYPES = [ ]; const COLORS = { - positive: "#059669", - negative: "#dc2626", + positive: "#22C55E", + negative: "#EF4444", teal: "#319795", tealDark: "#2c7a7b", text: "#1e293b", diff --git a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx index a330a92..ae3990f 100644 --- a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx +++ b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx @@ -263,14 +263,14 @@ function WinnersLosersChart({ data, year, termsMode }) { /> Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 18:07:56 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 06/27] edit --- src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx | 13 +------------ src/components/InequalityTable.jsx | 13 +------------ 2 files changed, 2 insertions(+), 24 deletions(-) diff --git a/src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx b/src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx index 76f275e..c5081ba 100644 --- a/src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx +++ b/src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx @@ -128,7 +128,7 @@ export default function DetailedBudgetTable({ data, selectedYear, termsMode = "n

Per-program impact of revised OBR forecasts on government revenue and - spending. + spending. Values in millions of pounds. Positive difference = fiscal improvement (higher tax revenue or lower spending).

@@ -146,17 +146,6 @@ export default function DetailedBudgetTable({ data, selectedYear, termsMode = "n
-

- Values in millions of pounds. Positive difference = fiscal improvement - (higher tax revenue or lower spending). -

); } diff --git a/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx b/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx index 7d3d884..138de92 100644 --- a/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx +++ b/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx @@ -78,7 +78,7 @@ export default function InequalityTable({ data, selectedYear, termsMode = "nomin Inequality impact

- Change in income inequality metrics from revised OBR forecasts. + Change in income inequality metrics from revised OBR forecasts. Based on equivalised household net income. The Gini coefficient ranges from 0 (perfect equality) to 1 (perfect inequality).

@@ -112,17 +112,6 @@ export default function InequalityTable({ data, selectedYear, termsMode = "nomin
-

- Based on equivalised household net income. The Gini coefficient ranges - from 0 (perfect equality) to 1 (perfect inequality). -

); } From 0738abb2fd0217ae8c9f6e0c573a77a5a3d69be3 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Vahid Ahmadi Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 18:09:34 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 07/27] edit --- src/components/PopulationTab.jsx | 4 ++-- 1 file changed, 2 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-) diff --git a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx index ae3990f..a32af2e 100644 --- a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx +++ b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx @@ -243,8 +243,8 @@ function WinnersLosersChart({ data, year, termsMode }) { axisLine={false} width={48} allowDecimals={false} - domain={[-60, 60]} - ticks={[-60, -40, -20, 0, 20, 40, 60]} + domain={[-80, 80]} + ticks={[-80, -60, -40, -20, 0, 20, 40, 60, 80]} /> Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 18:10:57 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 08/27] edit --- app/page.jsx | 2 +- src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx | 2 +- src/components/InequalityTable.jsx | 2 +- 3 files changed, 3 insertions(+), 3 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/page.jsx b/app/page.jsx index 62762fc..0ae173a 100644 --- a/app/page.jsx +++ b/app/page.jsx @@ -77,7 +77,7 @@ function Dashboard() {
-

Spring Statement 2026

+

Spring Statement 2026 analysis

diff --git a/src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx b/src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx index c5081ba..136683b 100644 --- a/src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx +++ b/src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx @@ -119,7 +119,7 @@ export default function DetailedBudgetTable({ data, selectedYear, termsMode = "n }; return ( -
+

+

Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 18:12:15 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 09/27] edit --- app/page.jsx | 9 ++++++++- 1 file changed, 8 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/app/page.jsx b/app/page.jsx index 0ae173a..3af961a 100644 --- a/app/page.jsx +++ b/app/page.jsx @@ -82,7 +82,14 @@ function Dashboard() {

- PolicyEngine analysis of the OBR's March 2026 economic forecast + PolicyEngine analysis of the{" "} + + OBR's March 2026 economic forecast + {" "} revisions and their projected impact on UK household incomes. The Spring Statement contained no new policy measures — all changes result from updated economic assumptions. From eea085986261264264fd01b519034879ebe02202 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Vahid Ahmadi Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 18:14:19 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 10/27] edit --- src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx | 3 --- src/components/InequalityTable.jsx | 3 --- 2 files changed, 6 deletions(-) diff --git a/src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx b/src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx index 136683b..805f66d 100644 --- a/src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx +++ b/src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx @@ -5,9 +5,6 @@ const tableStyle = { width: "auto", borderCollapse: "collapse", fontSize: "14px", - backgroundColor: "#fafafa", - borderRadius: "6px", - overflow: "hidden", }; const thStyle = { textAlign: "left", diff --git a/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx b/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx index e782e62..413d82b 100644 --- a/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx +++ b/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx @@ -5,9 +5,6 @@ const tableStyle = { width: "auto", borderCollapse: "collapse", fontSize: "14px", - backgroundColor: "#fafafa", - borderRadius: "6px", - overflow: "hidden", }; const thStyle = { textAlign: "left", From fb999f9d5eeb473e8bdb0e464e1700d545834d04 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Vahid Ahmadi Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 18:16:40 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 11/27] edit --- src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx | 95 +++++++++----------------- src/components/InequalityTable.jsx | 92 ++++++++----------------- 2 files changed, 60 insertions(+), 127 deletions(-) diff --git a/src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx b/src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx index 805f66d..a1a8128 100644 --- a/src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx +++ b/src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx @@ -1,41 +1,5 @@ "use client"; -const tableStyle = { - margin: "12px auto 0 auto", - width: "auto", - borderCollapse: "collapse", - fontSize: "14px", -}; -const thStyle = { - textAlign: "left", - padding: "10px 16px", - borderBottom: "2px solid #e5e7eb", - backgroundColor: "#f3f4f6", -}; -const thRightStyle = { - textAlign: "right", - padding: "10px 16px", - borderBottom: "2px solid #e5e7eb", - backgroundColor: "#f3f4f6", -}; -const tdStyle = { - padding: "10px 16px", - borderBottom: "1px solid #e5e7eb", -}; -const tdRightStyle = { - textAlign: "right", - padding: "10px 16px", - borderBottom: "1px solid #e5e7eb", -}; -const groupHeaderStyle = { - padding: "10px 16px", - borderBottom: "1px solid #e5e7eb", - backgroundColor: "#f9fafb", - fontWeight: 600, - fontSize: "13px", - color: "#374151", -}; - const PROGRAM_LABELS = { income_tax: "Income Tax", national_insurance: "National Insurance (employee)", @@ -97,18 +61,29 @@ export default function DetailedBudgetTable({ data, selectedYear, termsMode = "n return ( <> - + {label} {rows.map((row) => ( - + {PROGRAM_LABELS[row.program] || row.program} - {formatValue(row.baseline)} - {formatValue(row[reformField])} - {formatValue(row[differenceField])} + {formatValue(row.baseline)} + {formatValue(row[reformField])} + {formatValue(row[differenceField])} ))} @@ -117,32 +92,28 @@ export default function DetailedBudgetTable({ data, selectedYear, termsMode = "n return (

-

- Detailed budgetary breakdown -

+

Detailed budgetary breakdown

Per-program impact of revised OBR forecasts on government revenue and spending. Values in millions of pounds. Positive difference = fiscal improvement (higher tax revenue or lower spending).

- - - - - - - - - - - {renderGroup("Tax revenue", REVENUE_PROGRAMS)} - {renderGroup("Benefit spending", SPENDING_PROGRAMS)} - -
ProgramNov 2025 ({"\u00A3"}m)Mar 2026 ({"\u00A3"}m)Difference ({"\u00A3"}m)
- +
+ + + + + + + + + + + {renderGroup("Tax revenue", REVENUE_PROGRAMS)} + {renderGroup("Benefit spending", SPENDING_PROGRAMS)} + +
ProgramNov 2025 ({"\u00A3"}m)Mar 2026 ({"\u00A3"}m)Difference ({"\u00A3"}m)
+
); } diff --git a/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx b/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx index 413d82b..dea7e88 100644 --- a/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx +++ b/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx @@ -1,33 +1,5 @@ "use client"; -const tableStyle = { - margin: "12px auto 0 auto", - width: "auto", - borderCollapse: "collapse", - fontSize: "14px", -}; -const thStyle = { - textAlign: "left", - padding: "10px 16px", - borderBottom: "2px solid #e5e7eb", - backgroundColor: "#f3f4f6", -}; -const thRightStyle = { - textAlign: "right", - padding: "10px 16px", - borderBottom: "2px solid #e5e7eb", - backgroundColor: "#f3f4f6", -}; -const tdStyle = { - padding: "10px 16px", - borderBottom: "1px solid #e5e7eb", -}; -const tdRightStyle = { - textAlign: "right", - padding: "10px 16px", - borderBottom: "1px solid #e5e7eb", -}; - const METRIC_LABELS = { gini: "Gini coefficient", top_10_pct_share: "Top 10% income share", @@ -68,47 +40,37 @@ export default function InequalityTable({ data, selectedYear, termsMode = "nomin return (
-

- Inequality impact -

+

Inequality impact

Change in income inequality metrics from revised OBR forecasts. Based on equivalised household net income. The Gini coefficient ranges from 0 (perfect equality) to 1 (perfect inequality).

- - - - - - - - - - - {["gini", "top_10_pct_share", "top_1_pct_share"].map((metric) => { - const row = filtered.find((r) => r.metric === metric); - if (!row) return null; - return ( - - - - - - - ); - })} - -
MetricNov 2025Mar 2026Change
{METRIC_LABELS[metric]} - {formatValue(metric, row.baseline)} - - {formatValue(metric, row[reformField])} - - {formatChange(metric, row.baseline, row[reformField])} -
- +
+ + + + + + + + + + + {["gini", "top_10_pct_share", "top_1_pct_share"].map((metric) => { + const row = filtered.find((r) => r.metric === metric); + if (!row) return null; + return ( + + + + + + + ); + })} + +
MetricNov 2025Mar 2026Change
{METRIC_LABELS[metric]}{formatValue(metric, row.baseline)}{formatValue(metric, row[reformField])}{formatChange(metric, row.baseline, row[reformField])}
+
); } From d7a89e430ca612d17623dddfa19047c3f59d977f Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Vahid Ahmadi Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 18:53:02 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 12/27] edit --- public/data/detailed_budgetary_impact.csv | 102 +- public/data/distributional_impact.csv | 110 +- public/data/household_comparison.json | 24 +- public/data/household_scatter.csv | 4000 ++++++++++----------- public/data/inequality.csv | 30 +- public/data/intra_decile.csv | 496 +-- public/data/winners_losers.csv | 112 +- src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx | 9 +- src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx | 102 +- src/components/InequalityTable.jsx | 14 +- src/components/PopulationTab.jsx | 223 +- src/spring_statement_data/calculators.py | 174 +- src/spring_statement_data/pipeline.py | 14 +- 13 files changed, 2594 insertions(+), 2816 deletions(-) diff --git a/public/data/detailed_budgetary_impact.csv b/public/data/detailed_budgetary_impact.csv index e341a2f..7afe079 100644 --- a/public/data/detailed_budgetary_impact.csv +++ b/public/data/detailed_budgetary_impact.csv @@ -1,51 +1,51 @@ -year,program,baseline,reform_nominal,reform_real,difference_nominal,difference_real -2026,income_tax,304730.8439144392,304744.0698935997,305427.89749162976,13.225979160522462,697.0535771905518 -2026,national_insurance,55737.99965794466,56141.3191489743,56267.29693563733,403.3194910296402,529.2972776926728 -2026,vat,200835.8714179344,200835.8714179344,201286.53518834984,0.0,450.6637704154358 -2026,council_tax,60664.11190772149,60664.11190772149,60800.23857278495,0.0,136.1266650634613 -2026,fuel_duty,35463.747557224386,35463.747557224386,35543.32610100924,0.0,79.57854378485108 -2026,tax_credits,5290.852230760112,5286.707752740712,5298.570811028624,4.144478019400597,-7.718580268511772 -2026,universal_credit,80892.74900119173,80867.7426383464,81049.20505113692,25.006362845321654,-156.45604994519044 -2026,child_benefit,15611.400307538195,15603.84313430796,15638.857231790797,7.557173230236053,-27.456924252601624 -2026,state_pension,122078.41468818983,122176.21637289779,122450.37254797234,-97.80168470796204,-371.9578597825012 -2026,pension_credit,5972.874071519186,5954.92955415779,5968.2920624910275,17.944517361395835,4.582009028158188 -2027,income_tax,320908.0067779534,320934.23671441426,321717.4635745019,26.22993646081543,809.456796548462 -2027,national_insurance,58186.76532734835,57479.012494316165,57619.28767012086,-707.7528330321884,-567.4776572274933 -2027,vat,205610.5477711693,205610.5477711693,206112.33189174294,0.0,501.7841205736389 -2027,council_tax,64519.435719095694,64519.435719095694,64676.892759423434,0.0,157.4570403277359 -2027,fuel_duty,40246.61442554191,40246.61442554191,40344.834639653025,0.0,98.22021411110687 -2027,tax_credits,5436.194798181148,5416.586102475047,5429.805059009157,19.60869570610237,6.389739171991348 -2027,universal_credit,82995.18245214972,82906.04219420836,83108.37099457203,89.14025794136047,-113.18854242231751 -2027,child_benefit,16057.736020704735,16021.75957636995,16060.860024407364,35.97644433478546,-3.124003702629089 -2027,state_pension,125938.71122687338,126143.831024713,126451.67987781255,-205.11979783961488,-512.9686509391632 -2027,pension_credit,6085.320196301552,6024.0809320465605,6038.782454830866,61.23926425499153,46.53774147068596 -2028,income_tax,335134.91884455556,335164.9201421303,336114.63439301826,30.001297574768067,979.7155484627075 -2028,national_insurance,58915.746722880016,58806.409548955045,58973.04180023156,-109.3371739249649,57.29507735154724 -2028,vat,210561.63934467576,210561.63934467576,211158.2811098437,0.0,596.6417651679383 -2028,council_tax,68699.73700763391,68699.73700763391,68894.40272396467,0.0,194.66571633074952 -2028,fuel_duty,42787.86606888584,42787.86606888584,42909.10860868826,0.0,121.24253980241394 -2028,tax_credits,5555.893679060627,5534.008332033964,5549.689348338523,21.88534702666378,6.204330722104072 -2028,universal_credit,85295.01359726118,85198.50800779137,85439.92419530608,96.50558946980286,-144.91059804492187 -2028,child_benefit,16447.663123018487,16407.538359263017,16454.03031610377,40.124763755470276,-6.367193085283279 -2028,state_pension,129121.12650330196,129331.85101443302,129698.32224880336,-210.72451113105774,-577.1957455014038 -2028,pension_credit,6174.526047702704,6108.649815220868,6125.959120087079,65.87623248183633,48.56692761562538 -2029,income_tax,350155.8273071976,350188.269292015,351318.2711626836,32.44198481738281,1162.4438554859619 -2029,national_insurance,61384.56714483321,61774.167857809356,61973.50327638133,389.60071297615053,588.9361315481262 -2029,vat,215717.8752039614,215717.8752039614,216413.96249155086,0.0,696.0872875894776 -2029,council_tax,72862.3997553772,72862.3997553772,73097.51513543104,0.0,235.11538005381774 -2029,fuel_duty,45125.56573567095,45125.56573567095,45271.178762056385,0.0,145.61302638542938 -2029,tax_credits,5682.515596333218,5656.567814368341,5674.82065940145,25.947781964878082,7.694936931768417 -2029,universal_credit,87912.83786355042,87801.65622456431,88084.97821014124,111.18163898609924,-172.14034659082031 -2029,child_benefit,16857.063952252585,16809.306644069908,16863.547604199277,47.75730818267822,-6.483651946691513 -2029,state_pension,132446.50504959468,132663.80369090423,133091.88869399074,-217.2986413095703,-645.3836443960877 -2029,pension_credit,6239.735857206298,6165.61580016285,6185.511262115627,74.12005704344749,54.22459509067154 -2030,income_tax,367081.0083849407,367114.8418567441,368299.4630860246,33.833471803405764,1218.4547010839233 -2030,national_insurance,62611.38354587946,63411.14844326598,63615.76613793348,799.7648973865204,1004.3825920540237 -2030,vat,221022.3838654562,221022.3838654562,221735.58795916426,0.0,713.2040937080384 -2030,council_tax,77210.71335799992,77210.71335799992,77459.86005473704,0.0,249.14669673712157 -2030,fuel_duty,47578.74239954073,47578.74239954073,47732.2714370046,0.0,153.52903746386718 -2030,tax_credits,5803.93303676049,5773.654437884992,5792.285102837289,30.278598875496865,11.647933923200608 -2030,universal_credit,89749.45900276749,89492.85746436992,89781.63668747373,256.60153839756777,-32.17768470623779 -2030,child_benefit,17278.36202601888,17222.61199670249,17278.186627495856,55.75002931639099,0.175398523021698 -2030,state_pension,135881.71015803205,136105.63123261754,136544.8224659856,-223.92107458551024,-663.1123079535676 -2030,pension_credit,5770.899498894896,5687.848066462216,5706.201847895772,83.05143243268108,64.69765099912453 +year,program,baseline,reform,difference +2026,income_tax,304730.8439144392,304744.0698935997,13.225979160522462 +2026,national_insurance,55737.99965794466,56141.3191489743,403.3194910296402 +2026,vat,200835.8714179344,200835.8714179344,0.0 +2026,council_tax,60664.11190772149,60664.11190772149,0.0 +2026,fuel_duty,35463.747557224386,35463.747557224386,0.0 +2026,tax_credits,5290.852230760112,5286.707752740712,4.144478019400597 +2026,universal_credit,80892.74900119173,80867.7426383464,25.006362845321654 +2026,child_benefit,15611.400307538195,15603.84313430796,7.557173230236053 +2026,state_pension,122078.41468818983,122176.21637289779,-97.80168470796204 +2026,pension_credit,5972.874071519186,5954.92955415779,17.944517361395835 +2027,income_tax,320908.0067779534,320934.23671441426,26.22993646081543 +2027,national_insurance,58186.76532734835,57479.012494316165,-707.7528330321884 +2027,vat,205610.5477711693,205610.5477711693,0.0 +2027,council_tax,64519.435719095694,64519.435719095694,0.0 +2027,fuel_duty,40246.61442554191,40246.61442554191,0.0 +2027,tax_credits,5436.194798181148,5416.586102475047,19.60869570610237 +2027,universal_credit,82995.18245214972,82906.04219420836,89.14025794136047 +2027,child_benefit,16057.736020704735,16021.75957636995,35.97644433478546 +2027,state_pension,125938.71122687338,126143.831024713,-205.11979783961488 +2027,pension_credit,6085.320196301552,6024.0809320465605,61.23926425499153 +2028,income_tax,335134.91884455556,335164.9201421303,30.001297574768067 +2028,national_insurance,58915.746722880016,58806.409548955045,-109.3371739249649 +2028,vat,210561.63934467576,210561.63934467576,0.0 +2028,council_tax,68699.73700763391,68699.73700763391,0.0 +2028,fuel_duty,42787.86606888584,42787.86606888584,0.0 +2028,tax_credits,5555.893679060627,5534.008332033964,21.88534702666378 +2028,universal_credit,85295.01359726118,85198.50800779137,96.50558946980286 +2028,child_benefit,16447.663123018487,16407.538359263017,40.124763755470276 +2028,state_pension,129121.12650330196,129331.85101443302,-210.72451113105774 +2028,pension_credit,6174.526047702704,6108.649815220868,65.87623248183633 +2029,income_tax,350155.8273071976,350188.269292015,32.44198481738281 +2029,national_insurance,61384.56714483321,61774.167857809356,389.60071297615053 +2029,vat,215717.8752039614,215717.8752039614,0.0 +2029,council_tax,72862.3997553772,72862.3997553772,0.0 +2029,fuel_duty,45125.56573567095,45125.56573567095,0.0 +2029,tax_credits,5682.515596333218,5656.567814368341,25.947781964878082 +2029,universal_credit,87912.83786355042,87801.65622456431,111.18163898609924 +2029,child_benefit,16857.063952252585,16809.306644069908,47.75730818267822 +2029,state_pension,132446.50504959468,132663.80369090423,-217.2986413095703 +2029,pension_credit,6239.735857206298,6165.61580016285,74.12005704344749 +2030,income_tax,367081.0083849407,367114.8418567441,33.833471803405764 +2030,national_insurance,62611.38354587946,63411.14844326598,799.7648973865204 +2030,vat,221022.3838654562,221022.3838654562,0.0 +2030,council_tax,77210.71335799992,77210.71335799992,0.0 +2030,fuel_duty,47578.74239954073,47578.74239954073,0.0 +2030,tax_credits,5803.93303676049,5773.654437884992,30.278598875496865 +2030,universal_credit,89749.45900276749,89492.85746436992,256.60153839756777 +2030,child_benefit,17278.36202601888,17222.61199670249,55.75002931639099 +2030,state_pension,135881.71015803205,136105.63123261754,-223.92107458551024 +2030,pension_credit,5770.899498894896,5687.848066462216,83.05143243268108 diff --git a/public/data/distributional_impact.csv b/public/data/distributional_impact.csv index 60e39fb..948bde7 100644 --- a/public/data/distributional_impact.csv +++ b/public/data/distributional_impact.csv @@ -1,56 +1,56 @@ year,decile,absolute_change_nominal,absolute_change_real,relative_change_nominal,relative_change_real -2026,1st,0.8,45.92,0.004,0.2284 -2026,2nd,0.91,69.9,0.003,0.2274 -2026,3rd,-0.4,82.74,-0.0011,0.2233 -2026,4th,-0.71,94.46,-0.0017,0.2227 -2026,5th,-0.31,102.52,-0.0007,0.2237 -2026,6th,-0.24,117.14,-0.0005,0.2239 -2026,7th,0.12,124.42,0.0002,0.2246 -2026,8th,2.27,150.17,0.0034,0.2279 -2026,9th,6.03,169.7,0.0083,0.2327 -2026,10th,-133.24,148.3,-0.1061,0.1181 -2026,All,-12.6,108.64,-0.0233,0.201 -2027,1st,-1.86,47.71,-0.0091,0.2349 -2027,2nd,-4.87,71.29,-0.0156,0.2284 -2027,3rd,-7.93,83.42,-0.0212,0.2228 -2027,4th,-8.27,97.45,-0.0191,0.2249 -2027,5th,-8.51,105.16,-0.0183,0.2257 -2027,6th,-5.5,124.03,-0.0104,0.2337 -2027,7th,-8.21,129.59,-0.0145,0.2295 -2027,8th,-2.83,160.6,-0.0042,0.2398 -2027,9th,2.31,182.59,0.0031,0.2472 -2027,10th,215.04,527.02,0.1685,0.4129 -2027,All,17.32,151.38,0.0315,0.2757 -2028,1st,-2.34,55.92,-0.0114,0.2719 -2028,2nd,-6.29,82.93,-0.02,0.2633 -2028,3rd,-9.98,98.3,-0.0261,0.2572 -2028,4th,-9.5,115.46,-0.0215,0.2618 -2028,5th,-11.09,122.9,-0.0234,0.2599 -2028,6th,-7.13,146.04,-0.0132,0.2701 -2028,7th,-11.27,151.38,-0.0196,0.2637 -2028,8th,-6.48,185.72,-0.0096,0.2738 -2028,9th,-6.72,205.74,-0.009,0.2744 -2028,10th,45.12,416.14,0.0345,0.3179 -2028,All,-2.41,155.79,-0.0043,0.279 -2029,1st,-3.38,63.81,-0.0162,0.3064 -2029,2nd,-8.95,94.51,-0.0279,0.2947 -2029,3rd,-13.32,111.51,-0.0344,0.2882 -2029,4th,-11.85,131.9,-0.0266,0.296 -2029,5th,-13.98,141.84,-0.0289,0.2936 -2029,6th,-9.44,167.16,-0.0172,0.3054 -2029,7th,-13.57,174.14,-0.0233,0.2993 -2029,8th,-7.53,213.33,-0.011,0.3117 -2029,9th,-9.85,236.32,-0.0129,0.3097 -2029,10th,-106.31,323.16,-0.0798,0.2426 -2029,All,-19.66,163.17,-0.0347,0.2879 -2030,1st,-11.24,56.41,-0.0536,0.2689 -2030,2nd,-17.71,87.02,-0.0545,0.268 -2030,3rd,-21.49,105.42,-0.0546,0.2679 -2030,4th,-19.37,126.03,-0.043,0.2796 -2030,5th,-21.09,137.64,-0.0429,0.2797 -2030,6th,-14.06,168.17,-0.0249,0.2977 -2030,7th,-18.37,171.08,-0.0313,0.2913 -2030,8th,-8.13,216.57,-0.0117,0.311 -2030,9th,-5.89,242.48,-0.0076,0.315 -2030,10th,-244.06,194.5,-0.1793,0.1429 -2030,All,-38.21,147.74,-0.0663,0.2562 +2026,1st,0.8,0.8,0.004,0.004 +2026,2nd,0.91,0.91,0.003,0.003 +2026,3rd,-0.4,-0.4,-0.0011,-0.0011 +2026,4th,-0.71,-0.71,-0.0017,-0.0017 +2026,5th,-0.31,-0.31,-0.0007,-0.0007 +2026,6th,-0.24,-0.24,-0.0005,-0.0005 +2026,7th,0.12,0.12,0.0002,0.0002 +2026,8th,2.27,2.27,0.0034,0.0034 +2026,9th,6.03,6.03,0.0083,0.0083 +2026,10th,-133.24,-133.24,-0.1061,-0.1061 +2026,All,-12.6,-12.6,-0.0233,-0.0233 +2027,1st,-1.86,2.15,-0.0091,0.0108 +2027,2nd,-4.87,1.32,-0.0156,0.0043 +2027,3rd,-7.93,-0.46,-0.0212,-0.0012 +2027,4th,-8.27,0.37,-0.0191,0.0009 +2027,5th,-8.51,0.76,-0.0183,0.0017 +2027,6th,-5.5,4.99,-0.0104,0.0096 +2027,7th,-8.21,2.99,-0.0145,0.0054 +2027,8th,-2.83,10.32,-0.0042,0.0157 +2027,9th,2.31,16.71,0.0031,0.0231 +2027,10th,215.04,235.77,0.1685,0.1885 +2027,All,17.32,27.72,0.0315,0.0515 +2028,1st,-2.34,9.48,-0.0114,0.048 +2028,2nd,-6.29,11.92,-0.02,0.0394 +2028,3rd,-9.98,12.22,-0.0261,0.0333 +2028,4th,-9.5,16.04,-0.0215,0.0379 +2028,5th,-11.09,16.33,-0.0234,0.0359 +2028,6th,-7.13,24.0,-0.0132,0.0462 +2028,7th,-11.27,21.93,-0.0196,0.0398 +2028,8th,-6.48,32.48,-0.0096,0.0498 +2028,9th,-6.72,36.32,-0.009,0.0504 +2028,10th,45.12,118.05,0.0345,0.0939 +2028,All,-2.41,29.54,-0.0043,0.0551 +2029,1st,-3.38,16.21,-0.0162,0.0827 +2029,2nd,-8.95,21.44,-0.0279,0.071 +2029,3rd,-13.32,23.49,-0.0344,0.0645 +2029,4th,-11.85,30.33,-0.0266,0.0723 +2029,5th,-13.98,31.81,-0.0289,0.0699 +2029,6th,-9.44,42.08,-0.0172,0.0817 +2029,7th,-13.57,41.4,-0.0233,0.0756 +2029,8th,-7.53,56.65,-0.011,0.0879 +2029,9th,-9.85,61.77,-0.0129,0.086 +2029,10th,-106.31,23.86,-0.0798,0.019 +2029,All,-19.66,34.26,-0.0347,0.0642 +2030,1st,-11.24,8.73,-0.0536,0.0451 +2030,2nd,-17.71,13.23,-0.0545,0.0441 +2030,3rd,-21.49,16.01,-0.0546,0.0441 +2030,4th,-19.37,23.19,-0.043,0.0557 +2030,5th,-21.09,25.36,-0.0429,0.0558 +2030,6th,-14.06,38.49,-0.0249,0.0738 +2030,7th,-18.37,36.55,-0.0313,0.0674 +2030,8th,-8.13,55.96,-0.0117,0.0871 +2030,9th,-5.89,64.71,-0.0076,0.0911 +2030,10th,-244.06,-101.39,-0.1793,-0.0807 +2030,All,-38.21,17.25,-0.0663,0.0324 diff --git a/public/data/household_comparison.json b/public/data/household_comparison.json index dcfe15e..46d25bd 100644 --- a/public/data/household_comparison.json +++ b/public/data/household_comparison.json @@ -3,48 +3,48 @@ "group": "Single adult, no children", "baseline_hnet": 28974, "reformed_hnet_nominal": 28961, - "reformed_hnet_real": 29055, + "reformed_hnet_real": 27291, "change_nominal": -12, - "change_real": 81 + "change_real": 15 }, { "group": "Couple, no children", "baseline_hnet": 73700, "reformed_hnet_nominal": 73682, - "reformed_hnet_real": 73920, + "reformed_hnet_real": 69433, "change_nominal": -18, - "change_real": 220 + "change_real": 52 }, { "group": "Single parent", "baseline_hnet": 39720, "reformed_hnet_nominal": 39678, - "reformed_hnet_real": 39806, + "reformed_hnet_real": 37389, "change_nominal": -42, - "change_real": 86 + "change_real": -3 }, { "group": "Couple with children", "baseline_hnet": 79390, "reformed_hnet_nominal": 79340, - "reformed_hnet_real": 79596, + "reformed_hnet_real": 74764, "change_nominal": -50, - "change_real": 206 + "change_real": 27 }, { "group": "Single pensioner", "baseline_hnet": 27058, "reformed_hnet_nominal": 27057, - "reformed_hnet_real": 27144, + "reformed_hnet_real": 25496, "change_nominal": -1, - "change_real": 86 + "change_real": 24 }, { "group": "Pensioner couple", "baseline_hnet": 55211, "reformed_hnet_nominal": 55223, - "reformed_hnet_real": 55401, + "reformed_hnet_real": 52038, "change_nominal": 11, - "change_real": 190 + "change_real": 62 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/public/data/household_scatter.csv b/public/data/household_scatter.csv index 29c8925..4066869 100644 --- a/public/data/household_scatter.csv +++ b/public/data/household_scatter.csv @@ -1,2001 +1,2001 @@ baseline_income,net_impact_nominal,net_impact_real,decile -35805.17,5.328125,85.6875,2 -29820.436,7.3242188,74.25781,7 -102840.32,-2.921875,227.84375,7 -69916.83,12.171875,169.09375,6 -15916.681,-5.7753906,29.92871,1 -42595.555,4.9921875,100.58594,8 -65239.54,14.6484375,161.07812,8 -104945.01,-1.7890625,233.70312,2 -51208.535,0.0,114.91016,10 -55919.9,-6.0078125,119.46094,7 -30429.137,7.326172,75.625,5 -135596.16,0.0,304.28125,7 -20806.479,-1.7929688,44.89258,7 -13078.849,0.0,29.348633,1 -116075.5,0.0,260.47656,10 -18695.453,9.160156,51.132812,1 -30978.37,14.650391,84.19922,3 -42565.406,-11.503906,83.98828,5 -23564.305,0.0,52.878906,4 -42916.14,12.621094,108.953125,1 -22150.89,2.5820312,52.29492,1 -40623.48,0.0,91.16016,2 -84449.85,0.0,189.50781,9 -2352.5312,0.0,5.2790527,-1 -37328.547,0.0,83.765625,7 -33948.074,-1.578125,74.59766,1 -57971.812,-0.6796875,129.40625,7 -46734.543,-1.8359375,103.03125,8 -41799.32,-1.1289062,92.66797,2 -92012.12,-5.78125,200.67969,2 -19430.791,9.158203,52.78125,2 -30755.68,0.0,69.015625,6 -84916.31,21.242188,211.84375,8 -72437.234,-9.2890625,153.24219,4 -55010.758,471.3047,595.8047,10 -64008.523,0.0,143.63672,9 -30798.252,7.2734375,76.40039,3 -53932.46,12.449219,133.5,2 --6965.043,0.0,-15.629395,1 -78043.03,0.0,175.125,10 -56464.867,4.7109375,131.42969,10 -30208.219,0.0,67.78711,3 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+31884.254,-5.15625,-5.15625,2 +36852.418,14.6484375,14.6484375,2 +42274.254,7.3242188,7.3242188,9 +44964.19,-0.55078125,-0.55078125,1 +117164.38,0.0,0.0,10 +112115.29,6.7265625,6.7265625,2 +97098.66,0.0,0.0,10 +93071.72,-6.015625,-6.015625,6 +60400.805,0.0,0.0,9 +49926.0,-14.8671875,-14.8671875,6 +24727.885,-7.423828,-7.423828,4 +43308.406,-8.125,-8.125,4 diff --git a/public/data/inequality.csv b/public/data/inequality.csv index ade2ff3..fa5495f 100644 --- a/public/data/inequality.csv +++ b/public/data/inequality.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ year,metric,baseline,reform_nominal,reform_real -2026,gini,0.28291195949308817,0.282743616786075,0.28274361710762097 -2026,top_10_pct_share,0.24028316663722432,0.24014494548121476,0.2401449460329027 -2026,top_1_pct_share,0.06448224582651775,0.06423838226543441,0.06423838265557502 -2027,gini,0.2842003744929869,0.2845518649059099,0.28455186506251473 -2027,top_10_pct_share,0.24025349142671878,0.2405346533086001,0.24053465310337077 -2027,top_1_pct_share,0.06382009081093477,0.06412096507564989,0.06412096496680546 -2028,gini,0.28588488792559646,0.2860221529330154,0.2860221525953312 -2028,top_10_pct_share,0.2425271346494153,0.24252668996899426,0.24252669040666622 -2028,top_1_pct_share,0.06496273311571045,0.06503612888528176,0.06503612900666308 -2029,gini,0.2868648845495297,0.2867903987629185,0.28679039846730625 -2029,top_10_pct_share,0.24169740521303365,0.24152175080891358,0.24152175091444492 -2029,top_1_pct_share,0.06443141788046869,0.06437224754283671,0.06437224753543995 -2030,gini,0.2891819010569601,0.2890009249391396,0.28900092473370537 -2030,top_10_pct_share,0.2432481679345802,0.24287518823126414,0.2428751885181598 -2030,top_1_pct_share,0.06536563048246652,0.06506871296817356,0.06506871310408356 +2026,gini,0.28291195949308817,0.282743616786075,0.282743616786075 +2026,top_10_pct_share,0.24028316663722432,0.24014494548121476,0.24014494548121476 +2026,top_1_pct_share,0.06448224582651775,0.06423838226543441,0.06423838226543441 +2027,gini,0.2842003744929869,0.2845518649059099,0.28455186463868415 +2027,top_10_pct_share,0.24025349142671878,0.2405346533086001,0.24053465415330955 +2027,top_1_pct_share,0.06382009081093477,0.06412096507564989,0.06412096527303157 +2028,gini,0.28588488792559646,0.2860221529330154,0.2860221528580134 +2028,top_10_pct_share,0.2425271346494153,0.24252668996899426,0.24252668967508842 +2028,top_1_pct_share,0.06496273311571045,0.06503612888528176,0.0650361290247345 +2029,gini,0.2868648845495297,0.2867903987629185,0.28679040006718093 +2029,top_10_pct_share,0.24169740521303365,0.24152175080891358,0.24152175146097346 +2029,top_1_pct_share,0.06443141788046869,0.06437224754283671,0.06437224828905778 +2030,gini,0.2891819010569601,0.2890009249391396,0.2890009244725892 +2030,top_10_pct_share,0.2432481679345802,0.24287518823126414,0.24287518854102044 +2030,top_1_pct_share,0.06536563048246652,0.06506871296817356,0.06506871276297052 diff --git a/public/data/intra_decile.csv b/public/data/intra_decile.csv index d14a34f..3fd99fc 100644 --- a/public/data/intra_decile.csv +++ b/public/data/intra_decile.csv @@ -1,276 +1,276 @@ year,decile,outcome,share_nominal,share_real -2026,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.003588456128435063,0.006608994418726888 -2026,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.0040980518038138385,8.593977223123586e-05 -2026,1st,No change,0.9477600002451908,6.903075557791696e-05 -2026,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.04316734269823038,0.9931024242010589 -2026,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0013861491243300102,0.0001336108524050545 -2026,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.0014519814345184962,0.003121838444757266 -2026,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.00152994179735113,6.434787639647734e-06 -2026,2nd,No change,0.9763020334870605,1.924011334725069e-06 -2026,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.019278491166723834,0.9965318279553941 -2026,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.0014375521143460287,0.00033797480087424523 -2026,3rd,Lose more than 5%,1.134064713466854e-05,0.001895574943696338 -2026,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.0015791426335324097,4.661377387530178e-06 -2026,3rd,No change,0.9851807796384523,0.0 -2026,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.010861547930898451,0.9976055750192712 -2026,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0023671891499821365,0.0004941886596449675 -2026,4th,Lose more than 5%,1.352600574963601e-05,0.00027543157478920937 -2026,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.0003390258063541088,4.2397743959283015e-06 -2026,4th,No change,0.997294759099829,0.0 -2026,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.0015196415025011908,0.9991164064824325 -2026,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0008330475855660725,0.0006039221683823755 -2026,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.0051356091973205975,0.005143136495937747 -2026,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.0009182962414090315,1.1559802943861926e-05 -2026,5th,No change,0.9916329829786502,6.899625671729878e-06 -2026,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.0022977545785939444,0.9948299886545624 -2026,5th,Gain more than 5%,1.5357004026221944e-05,8.41542088423726e-06 -2026,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.0001034603029005416,0.001069300681372733 -2026,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.0003948357108072325,7.463930312546496e-05 -2026,6th,No change,0.9970526853233909,0.0 -2026,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.0022032321426259088,0.9988560600155018 -2026,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.0002457865202754973,0.0 -2026,7th,Lose more than 5%,0.006701531753188732,0.0068698602829670614 -2026,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.00020084146290064484,0.0 -2026,7th,No change,0.9872816377986482,4.680255314399224e-06 -2026,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.005649270609415134,0.9931254594617185 -2026,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0001667183758472417,0.0 -2026,8th,Lose more than 5%,7.885230298477537e-05,0.000675023679748858 -2026,8th,Lose less than 5%,1.600165143458112e-05,0.0 -2026,8th,No change,0.9897843353128988,0.0 -2026,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.009524639355917736,0.9993249763202512 -2026,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0005961713767640827,0.0 -2026,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.0,0.0019045815499914463 +2026,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.003588456128435063,0.003588456128435063 +2026,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.0040980518038138385,0.0040980518038138385 +2026,1st,No change,0.9477600002451908,0.9477600002451908 +2026,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.04316734269823038,0.04316734269823038 +2026,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0013861491243300102,0.0013861491243300102 +2026,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.0014519814345184962,0.0014519814345184962 +2026,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.00152994179735113,0.00152994179735113 +2026,2nd,No change,0.9763020334870605,0.9763020334870605 +2026,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.019278491166723834,0.019278491166723834 +2026,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.0014375521143460287,0.0014375521143460287 +2026,3rd,Lose more than 5%,1.134064713466854e-05,1.134064713466854e-05 +2026,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.0015791426335324097,0.0015791426335324097 +2026,3rd,No change,0.9851807796384523,0.9851807796384523 +2026,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.010861547930898451,0.010861547930898451 +2026,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0023671891499821365,0.0023671891499821365 +2026,4th,Lose more than 5%,1.352600574963601e-05,1.352600574963601e-05 +2026,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.0003390258063541088,0.0003390258063541088 +2026,4th,No change,0.997294759099829,0.997294759099829 +2026,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.0015196415025011908,0.0015196415025011908 +2026,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0008330475855660725,0.0008330475855660725 +2026,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.0051356091973205975,0.0051356091973205975 +2026,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.0009182962414090315,0.0009182962414090315 +2026,5th,No change,0.9916329829786502,0.9916329829786502 +2026,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.0022977545785939444,0.0022977545785939444 +2026,5th,Gain more than 5%,1.5357004026221944e-05,1.5357004026221944e-05 +2026,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.0001034603029005416,0.0001034603029005416 +2026,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.0003948357108072325,0.0003948357108072325 +2026,6th,No change,0.9970526853233909,0.9970526853233909 +2026,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.0022032321426259088,0.0022032321426259088 +2026,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.0002457865202754973,0.0002457865202754973 +2026,7th,Lose more than 5%,0.006701531753188732,0.006701531753188732 +2026,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.00020084146290064484,0.00020084146290064484 +2026,7th,No change,0.9872816377986482,0.9872816377986482 +2026,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.005649270609415134,0.005649270609415134 +2026,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0001667183758472417,0.0001667183758472417 +2026,8th,Lose more than 5%,7.885230298477537e-05,7.885230298477537e-05 +2026,8th,Lose less than 5%,1.600165143458112e-05,1.600165143458112e-05 +2026,8th,No change,0.9897843353128988,0.9897843353128988 +2026,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.009524639355917736,0.009524639355917736 +2026,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0005961713767640827,0.0005961713767640827 +2026,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.0,0.0 2026,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.0,0.0 -2026,9th,No change,0.9861350878257589,0.0 -2026,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.013862308570134794,0.9980474280335193 -2026,9th,Gain more than 5%,2.6036041063458904e-06,4.7990416489217476e-05 -2026,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.005089949299462445,0.005092091099581802 +2026,9th,No change,0.9861350878257589,0.9861350878257589 +2026,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.013862308570134794,0.013862308570134794 +2026,9th,Gain more than 5%,2.6036041063458904e-06,2.6036041063458904e-06 +2026,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.005089949299462445,0.005089949299462445 2026,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.0,0.0 -2026,10th,No change,0.956282643195625,0.0 -2026,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.03236474862711772,0.987704586101295 -2026,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.006262658877794868,0.007203322799123181 -2026,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0022174707071694957,0.003265583317156935 -2026,All,Lose less than 5%,0.0009076137107602977,1.8747481772366896e-05 -2026,All,No change,0.9814706944905505,8.253464789877114e-06 -2026,All,Gain less than 5%,0.014072897718215908,0.9958244732245005 -2026,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0013313233733038506,0.0008829425117803278 -2027,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.0039047779593303724,0.006794743452123105 -2027,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.2910341384393943,0.0016105920113064355 -2027,1st,No change,0.5225717572364299,0.011877679537775328 -2027,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.1811943936550268,0.9795190230645271 -2027,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0012949327098185877,0.00019796193426793566 -2027,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.0014665986514748879,0.0031005818958020973 -2027,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.37947893500922103,0.0010601583196033603 -2027,2nd,No change,0.44241518271432184,0.0021085370233856985 -2027,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.17519080978879928,0.9933779210727625 -2027,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.0014484738361829942,0.00035280168844641356 -2027,3rd,Lose more than 5%,1.1377997708996649e-05,0.0018960935439802339 -2027,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.32037457302116984,0.0011899996858940852 -2027,3rd,No change,0.5684511027483009,0.0029335970649420023 -2027,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.10859031160768223,0.9932814495549407 -2027,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.002572634625138189,0.0006988601502429873 +2026,10th,No change,0.956282643195625,0.956282643195625 +2026,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.03236474862711772,0.03236474862711772 +2026,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.006262658877794868,0.006262658877794868 +2026,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0022174707071694957,0.0022174707071694957 +2026,All,Lose less than 5%,0.0009076137107602977,0.0009076137107602977 +2026,All,No change,0.9814706944905505,0.9814706944905505 +2026,All,Gain less than 5%,0.014072897718215908,0.014072897718215908 +2026,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0013313233733038506,0.0013313233733038506 +2027,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.0039047779593303724,0.0057258286492013815 +2027,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.2910341384393943,0.23733195943658875 +2027,1st,No change,0.5225717572364299,0.568529057712456 +2027,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.1811943936550268,0.18714116424432745 +2027,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0012949327098185877,0.0012719899574263403 +2027,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.0014665986514748879,0.0022436083443566138 +2027,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.37947893500922103,0.3230994951667567 +2027,2nd,No change,0.44241518271432184,0.4666583936742274 +2027,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.17519080978879928,0.2067887275747674 +2027,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.0014484738361829942,0.001209775239891897 +2027,3rd,Lose more than 5%,1.1377997708996649e-05,2.3585260728679517e-05 +2027,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.32037457302116984,0.24771554057680137 +2027,3rd,No change,0.5684511027483009,0.6166056948564966 +2027,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.10859031160768223,0.13308381087247886 +2027,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.002572634625138189,0.0025713684334945416 2027,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.0002463074954584472,0.0002794035605248458 -2027,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.2681531522530694,0.00010591863726052218 -2027,4th,No change,0.6518901302254578,0.0017501797566236617 -2027,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.07910469603871159,0.9972587840582883 +2027,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.2681531522530694,0.1896287249502328 +2027,4th,No change,0.6518901302254578,0.6875026836333288 +2027,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.07910469603871159,0.12198347386861084 2027,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0006057139873026753,0.0006057139873026753 -2027,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.005143827901174483,0.005154512932525929 -2027,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.2235366319021381,0.00013949087322671404 -2027,5th,No change,0.7288277378236272,0.0021422475046182447 -2027,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.04248061406204653,0.9925553398720003 -2027,5th,Gain more than 5%,1.1188311013705845e-05,8.408817628802254e-06 -2027,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.00010187716925605217,0.0010660291903206401 -2027,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.12199957542685184,0.00026007355570818996 -2027,6th,No change,0.8433435425804002,0.0004859625996210145 -2027,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.03429005089595294,0.9981733099756536 -2027,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.00026495392753897744,1.4624678696588497e-05 -2027,7th,Lose more than 5%,0.00020482778459988786,0.0003816202450854556 -2027,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.14020264919276448,2.106328800157162e-05 -2027,7th,No change,0.8381395583200397,0.001230144627282173 -2027,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.02128546277818536,0.9983671718396308 -2027,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.00016750192441054355,0.0 -2027,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.0064861918409962315,0.007078815730515027 -2027,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.06420511190322528,1.507535307830526e-05 -2027,8th,No change,0.9167701951809388,0.00011330535718496086 -2027,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.01194587718532085,0.9927928035592217 -2027,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0005926238895187958,0.0 +2027,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.005143827901174483,0.005151733439141025 +2027,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.2235366319021381,0.14092562012737125 +2027,5th,No change,0.7288277378236272,0.737206439086952 +2027,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.04248061406204653,0.116705019035522 +2027,5th,Gain more than 5%,1.1188311013705845e-05,1.1188311013705845e-05 +2027,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.00010187716925605217,0.0008535618099962039 +2027,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.12199957542685184,0.10152670149824512 +2027,6th,No change,0.8433435425804002,0.7781435955080515 +2027,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.03429005089595294,0.11924904912468628 +2027,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.00026495392753897744,0.00022709205902102464 +2027,7th,Lose more than 5%,0.00020482778459988786,0.00021411832067491204 +2027,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.14020264919276448,0.10912460529653056 +2027,7th,No change,0.8381395583200397,0.8320379978899822 +2027,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.02128546277818536,0.05845577656840188 +2027,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.00016750192441054355,0.00016750192441054355 +2027,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.0064861918409962315,0.007050409279490119 +2027,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.06420511190322528,0.035931594408148027 +2027,8th,No change,0.9167701951809388,0.8821598829435128 +2027,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.01194587718532085,0.07482970691782424 +2027,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0005926238895187958,2.8406451024908463e-05 2027,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.0,0.0019110891744820763 -2027,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.02213026137145353,0.0 -2027,9th,No change,0.9708726052694878,0.0 -2027,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.006994520858798827,0.9980889108255179 +2027,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.02213026137145353,0.019089794988703335 +2027,9th,No change,0.9708726052694878,0.9331466221803508 +2027,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.006994520858798827,0.04585249365646372 2027,9th,Gain more than 5%,2.6125002598258946e-06,0.0 -2027,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.0002697160729275004,0.00012816438036027916 -2027,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.029889163707232897,0.0037380605043602186 -2027,10th,No change,0.951680591728465,0.0 -2027,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.013175523493108847,0.9911509047757974 -2027,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.004985004998265785,0.004982870339482141 -2027,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0017835502872926858,0.002779105410571969 -2027,All,Lose less than 5%,0.18610041922265208,0.0008140432228439402 -2027,All,No change,0.743496240382747,0.0022641653471433083 -2027,All,Gain less than 5%,0.06742522603636332,0.993456561859834 -2027,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0011945640709450079,0.0006861241596067543 -2028,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.00412615585662092,0.007030485222404763 -2028,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.29299780165107403,0.0014972768435386802 -2028,1st,No change,0.5177895473827401,0.007675937014807524 -2028,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.18379174683628424,0.9835231812122941 -2028,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0012947482732808325,0.0002731197069550333 -2028,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.001672931242976737,0.003142490833452881 -2028,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.39543962306691377,0.0008761723826488992 -2028,2nd,No change,0.42651593403508303,0.0006241385933613018 -2028,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.1749127173157391,0.9949913277714026 -2028,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.0014587943392874113,0.0003658704191342674 -2028,3rd,Lose more than 5%,2.614464940352919e-05,0.0018798566582885435 -2028,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.3355061279825,0.0010956470737670842 -2028,3rd,No change,0.5563156035673287,0.000986113578949313 -2028,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.10581208065241922,0.9955520515495314 -2028,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0023400431483486094,0.0004863311394635953 +2027,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.0002697160729275004,0.0002697160729275004 +2027,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.029889163707232897,0.0036780404955479313 +2027,10th,No change,0.951680591728465,0.9539270376495244 +2027,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.013175523493108847,0.03714020078373443 +2027,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.004985004998265785,0.004985004998265785 +2027,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0017835502872926858,0.002372305391152336 +2027,All,Lose less than 5%,0.18610041922265208,0.1408052076944926 +2027,All,No change,0.743496240382747,0.7455917405134882 +2027,All,Gain less than 5%,0.06742522603636332,0.11012294226468171 +2027,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0011945640709450079,0.0011078041361851421 +2028,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.00412615585662092,0.006823840175410107 +2028,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.29299780165107403,0.15791862468768514 +2028,1st,No change,0.5177895473827401,0.36566002693828414 +2028,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.18379174683628424,0.46926117203938333 +2028,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0012947482732808325,0.00033633615923731925 +2028,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.001672931242976737,0.0030820419605822155 +2028,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.39543962306691377,0.16612980879001832 +2028,2nd,No change,0.42651593403508303,0.4286267060708422 +2028,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.1749127173157391,0.40174405968542004 +2028,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.0014587943392874113,0.00041738349313730124 +2028,3rd,Lose more than 5%,2.614464940352919e-05,0.0018686849472051561 +2028,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.3355061279825,0.11974786317098139 +2028,3rd,No change,0.5563156035673287,0.44557522031838065 +2028,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.10581208065241922,0.4323107287128859 +2028,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0023400431483486094,0.0004975028505469826 2028,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.00028368168594097105,0.00028368168594097105 -2028,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.2628442719683398,0.00015944105049225458 -2028,4th,No change,0.6556856008148754,0.0008473557638996621 -2028,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.08056821953118709,0.9980912955000104 +2028,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.2628442719683398,0.10463725743241552 +2028,4th,No change,0.6556856008148754,0.39947118263843595 +2028,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.08056821953118709,0.4949896522435509 2028,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0006182259996566861,0.0006182259996566861 -2028,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.005200697070092856,0.005203471982964503 -2028,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.2622321371414398,0.0017230852646105354 -2028,5th,No change,0.6906965421761894,0.0013492333262705358 -2028,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.04185945373910528,0.9917158144658534 -2028,5th,Gain more than 5%,1.1169873172618614e-05,8.394960300971674e-06 -2028,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.0001996102037046133,0.0010708294816319265 -2028,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.13832375707947284,0.0013264438431045329 -2028,6th,No change,0.8275591119081064,0.00022305048050096527 -2028,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.0334675886594447,0.9971777037164588 -2028,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.00044993214927159113,0.00020197247830378433 -2028,7th,Lose more than 5%,1.4182604033877353e-05,0.00038101897676330436 -2028,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.1532502544217765,0.0014999830774201624 -2028,7th,No change,0.8263613520803271,0.0018971595501798787 -2028,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.019506957833639222,0.9957214217081428 -2028,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0008672530602232108,0.0005004166874937839 +2028,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.005200697070092856,0.005202036694235284 +2028,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.2622321371414398,0.09046176743906918 +2028,5th,No change,0.6906965421761894,0.367322572494364 +2028,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.04185945373910528,0.5370037931233013 +2028,5th,Gain more than 5%,1.1169873172618614e-05,9.830249030190706e-06 +2028,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.0001996102037046133,0.001051643499545431 +2028,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.13832375707947284,0.060527883532098245 +2028,6th,No change,0.8275591119081064,0.24764907255826557 +2028,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.0334675886594447,0.6905522583817946 +2028,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.00044993214927159113,0.00021914202829625894 +2028,7th,Lose more than 5%,1.4182604033877353e-05,0.0002137809612838276 +2028,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.1532502544217765,0.06112173583363147 +2028,7th,No change,0.8263613520803271,0.31336047201497036 +2028,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.019506957833639222,0.6246363564871411 +2028,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0008672530602232108,0.0006676547029732605 2028,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.0065641998140156645,0.007163951049838422 -2028,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.058988756458410244,0.005474244750328056 -2028,8th,No change,0.9272874196375103,0.000563404625975731 -2028,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.006559872854241127,0.9867983995738578 +2028,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.058988756458410244,0.01940900853060521 +2028,8th,No change,0.9272874196375103,0.21504816569510907 +2028,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.006559872854241127,0.7583788747244473 2028,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0005997512358227571,0.0 2028,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.001615779841715802,0.001874977596516371 -2028,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.04824553204862797,0.006207101402641376 -2028,9th,No change,0.9488814156128869,0.0020278817889371964 -2028,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.0009980747419685947,0.9898900392119051 +2028,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.04824553204862797,0.011215902712493836 +2028,9th,No change,0.9488814156128869,0.12086053943354888 +2028,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.0009980747419685947,0.8660485802574408 2028,9th,Gain more than 5%,0.0002591977548005689,0.0 -2028,10th,Lose more than 5%,9.102661270972437e-05,9.31823328772447e-05 -2028,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.04716796900677017,0.016022068903582553 -2028,10th,No change,0.9418774892437634,0.0027301981650263182 -2028,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.004699751103663274,0.9727533894507321 -2028,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.006163764033093482,0.008401161147781782 -2028,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0019794409581214696,0.002812394582067893 -2028,All,Lose less than 5%,0.19949962308253252,0.0035881464592134133 -2028,All,No change,0.7318970016458811,0.0018924472887908428 -2028,All,Gain less than 5%,0.06521764632676917,0.9906214624160189 -2028,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0014062879866957767,0.0010855492539089905 -2029,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.00413630505008607,0.007056757304222985 -2029,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.2947764189908315,0.0023805952845082847 -2029,1st,No change,0.5097619563136442,0.006760371042412917 -2029,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.18991709447803665,0.9835098254261163 -2029,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.001408225167401707,0.0002924509427396195 -2029,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.0016677495436202522,0.003130727976984368 -2029,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.4305058519765534,0.0008967131975259401 -2029,2nd,No change,0.39125865548147387,0.0017643084113826088 -2029,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.17508474288307024,0.9938354579225517 -2029,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.0014830001152822216,0.0003727924915554152 -2029,3rd,Lose more than 5%,3.8900068363024575e-05,0.0018746171824131593 -2029,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.3585854820377803,0.0010771006200073906 -2029,3rd,No change,0.5366814780685879,0.0016070181548459054 -2029,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.10237172431334343,0.9949545656448584 -2029,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0023224155119252977,0.00048669839787516276 -2029,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.00036032579652245904,0.0009664573620171193 -2029,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.2749315598232694,0.0002301997151190937 -2029,4th,No change,0.6415720203645121,0.0007291628121151789 -2029,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.082519339283524,0.9980635569440711 -2029,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0006167547321721812,1.0623166677520937e-05 +2028,10th,Lose more than 5%,9.102661270972437e-05,9.102661270972437e-05 +2028,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.04716796900677017,0.020015625034102466 +2028,10th,No change,0.9418774892437634,0.06512024136208888 +2028,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.004699751103663274,0.9084156612945569 +2028,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.006163764033093482,0.006357445696542183 +2028,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0019794409581214696,0.002765566518326751 +2028,All,Lose less than 5%,0.19949962308253252,0.08111854771631008 +2028,All,No change,0.7318970016458811,0.296869419952429 +2028,All,Gain less than 5%,0.06521764632676917,0.6183341136949921 +2028,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0014062879866957767,0.0009123521179420183 +2029,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.00413630505008607,0.006951342736868405 +2029,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.2947764189908315,0.1202621546120946 +2029,1st,No change,0.5097619563136442,0.17747608628403885 +2029,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.18991709447803665,0.6949125508569041 +2029,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.001408225167401707,0.00039786551009419964 +2029,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.0016677495436202522,0.003148781064728544 +2029,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.4305058519765534,0.1095694059984082 +2029,2nd,No change,0.39125865548147387,0.32114222792561287 +2029,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.17508474288307024,0.5657671604424093 +2029,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.0014830001152822216,0.0003724245688411718 +2029,3rd,Lose more than 5%,3.8900068363024575e-05,0.0018685347596033048 +2029,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.3585854820377803,0.08891638788566078 +2029,3rd,No change,0.5366814780685879,0.2712426731088894 +2029,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.10237172431334343,0.6374796234251615 +2029,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0023224155119252977,0.0004927808206850173 +2029,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.00036032579652245904,0.00036032579652245904 +2029,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.2749315598232694,0.06390366004705599 +2029,4th,No change,0.6415720203645121,0.2118866125734887 +2029,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.082519339283524,0.7232326468507607 +2029,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0006167547321721812,0.0006167547321721812 2029,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.00528210160821089,0.0052849048204539366 -2029,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.2767344344623371,0.0014945244077486004 -2029,5th,No change,0.675180827967563,0.0014792369374133664 -2029,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.042482268546099204,0.9914237696308374 +2029,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.2767344344623371,0.057296810295227936 +2029,5th,No change,0.675180827967563,0.21978444405883032 +2029,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.042482268546099204,0.717316276621941 2029,5th,Gain more than 5%,0.0003203674157897475,0.00031756420354670054 -2029,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.00019957177357058167,0.0010705158794036649 -2029,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.16115169643166669,0.001494575676786953 -2029,6th,No change,0.8051892538229417,0.0003344513290333887 -2029,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.033009687935410766,0.9969005642266973 -2029,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.00044979003641029973,0.00019989288807869136 +2029,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.00019957177357058167,0.0010663574929466269 +2029,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.16115169643166669,0.04319556168594832 +2029,6th,No change,0.8051892538229417,0.12013128123200412 +2029,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.033009687935410766,0.8354027483145652 +2029,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.00044979003641029973,0.0002040512745357295 2029,7th,Lose more than 5%,1.410655115725516e-05,0.00037897579176928423 -2029,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.1552917192619132,0.001495598889040784 -2029,7th,No change,0.8249423233048077,0.001715075732250962 -2029,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.01886764021503835,0.9958910081604675 +2029,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.1552917192619132,0.04004385688532376 +2029,7th,No change,0.8249423233048077,0.11538545441840846 +2029,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.01886764021503835,0.843672371478027 2029,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0008842106670835449,0.0005193414264715159 2029,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.006519813036798466,0.007115508781694153 -2029,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.062061948517701256,0.0036012452370948345 -2029,8th,No change,0.9174819464872851,0.0006446966969010995 -2029,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.013340596213319511,0.9886385492843099 +2029,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.062061948517701256,0.01983967461828694 +2029,8th,No change,0.9174819464872851,0.05238464375028705 +2029,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.013340596213319511,0.9206601728497319 2029,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0005956957448956867,0.0 2029,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.001622508194117665,0.0018827852876894273 -2029,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.05858450881835301,0.007527855235325684 -2029,9th,No change,0.9379172342671173,0.002143097088197329 -2029,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.0016154716268403577,0.9884462623887875 +2029,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.05858450881835301,0.01225010925822873 +2029,9th,No change,0.9379172342671173,0.04704321913604213 +2029,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.0016154716268403577,0.9388238863180397 2029,9th,Gain more than 5%,0.0002602770935717622,0.0 -2029,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.007733405936848057,0.0073153260965019866 -2029,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.05621531168835989,0.02064344507276128 -2029,10th,No change,0.9349590854045848,0.002587889328737388 -2029,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.0010723121198103595,0.9694356113960588 +2029,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.007733405936848057,0.00767868539991179 +2029,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.05621531168835989,0.027971771607830206 +2029,10th,No change,0.9349590854045848,0.028977060405209948 +2029,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.0010723121198103595,0.9353547544811075 2029,10th,Gain more than 5%,1.988485039683772e-05,1.7728105940507652e-05 -2029,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0027574787559294716,0.0036076576483150082 -2029,All,Lose less than 5%,0.21288389320087658,0.004084185333591885 -2029,All,No change,0.7174944781482517,0.0019765307533290144 -2029,All,Gain less than 5%,0.0660280877614493,0.9901099171024755 -2029,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0008360621334929286,0.00022170916228851336 -2030,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.0067005225549827685,0.009981678519646264 -2030,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.4519116964321259,0.018566029838154016 -2030,1st,No change,0.3403410303560371,0.03952756063558715 -2030,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.19914129099618627,0.9313032624097936 -2030,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0019054596606678013,0.0006214685968189083 -2030,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.0003184392090771974,0.0017260018808812514 -2030,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.4695644925821656,0.0024909806756010324 -2030,2nd,No change,0.3572827558234632,0.022315271906860168 -2030,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.17134022669472834,0.9730138013924053 -2030,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.001494085690565774,0.00045394414425217153 -2030,3rd,Lose more than 5%,4.5139820381744196e-05,0.0019014769347659131 -2030,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.43977712629951793,0.002184884704962728 -2030,3rd,No change,0.45444768621332776,0.013810948910244352 -2030,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.10336671372892235,0.981595692626561 -2030,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0023633339378501986,0.0005069968234660295 -2030,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.0008249493751393884,0.0009603102566584665 -2030,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.31039826589588787,0.0012202083769424557 -2030,4th,No change,0.6037219486037311,0.01286024631119734 -2030,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.08420715067676277,0.9849486115038896 -2030,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0008476854484788901,1.0623551312220122e-05 -2030,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.005283008574863911,0.0052941982702948065 -2030,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.2827558132059203,0.0013789468725536461 -2030,5th,No change,0.6679601735925388,0.009525752222997109 -2030,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.04388298646664175,0.9836942741695501 -2030,5th,Gain more than 5%,0.00011801816003505972,0.00010682846460416513 -2030,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.0002017735406128133,0.001072838255882483 -2030,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.17185140334571772,0.000757405905371799 -2030,6th,No change,0.7927301521250152,0.0034890587150824943 -2030,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.03476644803878442,0.9944804059280914 -2030,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.00045022294986978115,0.00020029119557178276 -2030,7th,Lose more than 5%,1.4164076802252751e-05,0.0004158463378664391 -2030,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.16597138341165873,0.0020682367537168808 -2030,7th,No change,0.8090797528725262,0.0027493748744337495 -2030,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.024011558128535303,0.9942450827845694 -2030,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0009231415104777902,0.0005214592494136039 +2029,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0027574787559294716,0.0035736201932187934 +2029,All,Lose less than 5%,0.21288389320087658,0.05832493928940654 +2029,All,No change,0.7174944781482517,0.1565453702892812 +2029,All,Gain less than 5%,0.0660280877614493,0.7812622191638647 +2029,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0008360621334929286,0.00029385106422870236 +2030,1st,Lose more than 5%,0.0067005225549827685,0.009865217195986988 +2030,1st,Lose less than 5%,0.4519116964321259,0.29663995314746744 +2030,1st,No change,0.3403410303560371,0.15920675848944557 +2030,1st,Gain less than 5%,0.19914129099618627,0.5335565519246539 +2030,1st,Gain more than 5%,0.0019054596606678013,0.0007315192424459723 +2030,2nd,Lose more than 5%,0.0003184392090771974,0.0017139420760449928 +2030,2nd,Lose less than 5%,0.4695644925821656,0.347985541072753 +2030,2nd,No change,0.3572827558234632,0.12315363839606965 +2030,2nd,Gain less than 5%,0.17134022669472834,0.526680874506044 +2030,2nd,Gain more than 5%,0.001494085690565774,0.00046600394908843034 +2030,3rd,Lose more than 5%,4.5139820381744196e-05,0.0018953261897450833 +2030,3rd,Lose less than 5%,0.43977712629951793,0.23888982139565054 +2030,3rd,No change,0.45444768621332776,0.20570900403587883 +2030,3rd,Gain less than 5%,0.10336671372892235,0.5529927008102387 +2030,3rd,Gain more than 5%,0.0023633339378501986,0.0005131475684868593 +2030,4th,Lose more than 5%,0.0008249493751393884,0.00012324835949179656 +2030,4th,Lose less than 5%,0.31039826589588787,0.16714168043083005 +2030,4th,No change,0.6037219486037311,0.14547290728387716 +2030,4th,Gain less than 5%,0.08420715067676277,0.6864144784773221 +2030,4th,Gain more than 5%,0.0008476854484788901,0.0008476854484788901 +2030,5th,Lose more than 5%,0.005283008574863911,0.005285788412145492 +2030,5th,Lose less than 5%,0.2827558132059203,0.1287654114370972 +2030,5th,No change,0.6679601735925388,0.15430179786038029 +2030,5th,Gain less than 5%,0.04388298646664175,0.7115317639676234 +2030,5th,Gain more than 5%,0.00011801816003505972,0.00011523832275347928 +2030,6th,Lose more than 5%,0.0002017735406128133,0.0010686792936866923 +2030,6th,Lose less than 5%,0.17185140334571772,0.08355193643727567 +2030,6th,No change,0.7927301521250152,0.10450930398497753 +2030,6th,Gain less than 5%,0.03476644803878442,0.8106656301262924 +2030,6th,Gain more than 5%,0.00045022294986978115,0.00020445015776757343 +2030,7th,Lose more than 5%,1.4164076802252751e-05,0.00038052122423098766 +2030,7th,Lose less than 5%,0.16597138341165873,0.08818678359772213 +2030,7th,No change,0.8090797528725262,0.07791520839665858 +2030,7th,Gain less than 5%,0.024011558128535303,0.8329607024183395 +2030,7th,Gain more than 5%,0.0009231415104777902,0.0005567843630490553 2030,8th,Lose more than 5%,0.00655850979215556,0.007157741171641648 -2030,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.07115092361187257,0.0022594798834732885 -2030,8th,No change,0.900739030833651,0.0004544083488383072 -2030,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.020765658808700686,0.9899417250219127 +2030,8th,Lose less than 5%,0.07115092361187257,0.042636532872199484 +2030,8th,No change,0.900739030833651,0.028531508364904555 +2030,8th,Gain less than 5%,0.020765658808700686,0.9214875720171203 2030,8th,Gain more than 5%,0.0007858769536201272,0.0001866455741340386 2030,9th,Lose more than 5%,0.0016313135207037773,0.0018930031312206612 -2030,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.05916048874876685,0.00236534655579776 -2030,9th,No change,0.9293155195296747,0.0013050251757604357 -2030,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.009630988590337789,0.9944366251372212 +2030,9th,Lose less than 5%,0.05916048874876685,0.013818240869355205 +2030,9th,No change,0.9293155195296747,0.045343661149624834 +2030,9th,Gain less than 5%,0.009630988590337789,0.9389450948497994 2030,9th,Gain more than 5%,0.00026168961051688385,0.0 2030,10th,Lose more than 5%,0.005104540968884547,0.005106681505243886 -2030,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.03264172216273909,0.004620157391600785 -2030,10th,No change,0.9525290576910078,0.00031402266347796935 -2030,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.009408982255817662,0.9896455820544858 +2030,10th,Lose less than 5%,0.03264172216273909,0.005206279611085912 +2030,10th,No change,0.9525290576910078,0.02743603183003722 +2030,10th,Gain less than 5%,0.009408982255817662,0.9619374506684415 2030,10th,Gain more than 5%,0.00031569692155085025,0.0003135563851915115 -2030,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0026682361433603956,0.003550977626410182 -2030,All,Lose less than 5%,0.24551833156963726,0.00379116769581744 -2030,All,No change,0.6808147107640974,0.010635166976447907 -2030,All,Gain less than 5%,0.07005220043854174,0.981730506302848 -2030,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0009465210843633158,0.00029218139847644317 +2030,All,Lose more than 5%,0.0026682361433603956,0.003449014855943823 +2030,All,Lose less than 5%,0.24551833156963726,0.14128221808714367 +2030,All,No change,0.6808147107640974,0.10715798197918543 +2030,All,Gain less than 5%,0.07005220043854174,0.7477172819765876 +2030,All,Gain more than 5%,0.0009465210843633158,0.000393503101139581 diff --git a/public/data/winners_losers.csv b/public/data/winners_losers.csv index 9164b4e..af04e75 100644 --- a/public/data/winners_losers.csv +++ b/public/data/winners_losers.csv @@ -1,56 +1,56 @@ -year,decile,pct_gaining_nominal,pct_losing_nominal,pct_unchanged_nominal,pct_gaining_real,pct_losing_real,pct_unchanged_real -2026,1st,32.0,38.63,29.37,99.06,0.94,0.01 -2026,2nd,40.9,43.14,15.96,99.7,0.3,0.0 -2026,3rd,24.67,49.64,25.69,99.78,0.22,0.0 -2026,4th,19.55,49.71,30.74,99.97,0.03,0.0 -2026,5th,22.53,49.8,27.67,99.66,0.34,0.0 -2026,6th,22.78,44.21,33.01,99.77,0.23,-0.0 -2026,7th,19.32,45.52,35.17,99.48,0.52,-0.0 -2026,8th,15.68,38.53,45.8,99.92,0.08,0.0 -2026,9th,13.76,19.43,66.82,99.79,0.21,0.0 -2026,10th,18.4,16.03,65.57,99.62,0.38,-0.0 -2026,All,23.29,39.29,37.42,99.57,0.41,0.01 -2027,1st,26.82,43.32,29.85,98.75,1.23,0.03 -2027,2nd,40.61,44.97,14.42,99.55,0.45,0.0 -2027,3rd,21.94,50.68,27.38,99.61,0.39,0.0 -2027,4th,20.33,51.46,28.21,99.92,0.08,0.0 -2027,5th,21.23,52.04,26.73,99.46,0.54,0.0 -2027,6th,22.16,44.72,33.12,99.77,0.23,0.0 -2027,7th,16.56,50.68,32.77,99.93,0.07,0.0 -2027,8th,14.85,40.75,44.39,99.4,0.6,0.0 -2027,9th,12.19,23.59,64.22,99.79,0.21,-0.0 -2027,10th,17.32,19.26,63.42,99.64,0.36,-0.0 -2027,All,21.65,42.01,36.34,99.47,0.52,0.02 -2028,1st,27.14,42.92,29.94,98.77,1.2,0.03 -2028,2nd,39.93,46.86,13.2,99.58,0.42,0.0 -2028,3rd,22.36,58.7,18.93,99.63,0.36,0.0 -2028,4th,21.06,58.94,20.0,99.92,0.08,0.0 -2028,5th,21.37,64.93,13.7,99.48,0.52,0.0 -2028,6th,22.73,68.74,8.53,99.68,0.32,-0.0 -2028,7th,17.45,68.46,14.09,99.86,0.14,0.0 -2028,8th,19.19,69.58,11.23,99.02,0.98,0.0 -2028,9th,20.23,47.97,31.8,99.23,0.77,-0.0 -2028,10th,51.24,21.78,26.98,98.36,1.64,0.0 -2028,All,26.47,54.19,19.34,99.24,0.74,0.01 -2029,1st,28.19,45.13,26.68,98.66,1.3,0.05 -2029,2nd,39.52,53.03,7.44,99.55,0.42,0.02 -2029,3rd,21.04,73.91,5.05,99.62,0.38,0.0 -2029,4th,20.39,73.95,5.66,99.82,0.11,0.07 -2029,5th,22.34,71.54,6.12,99.48,0.52,0.0 -2029,6th,23.2,72.92,3.88,99.69,0.31,-0.0 -2029,7th,18.51,79.26,2.23,99.86,0.14,-0.0 -2029,8th,26.0,70.15,3.84,99.13,0.87,-0.0 -2029,9th,47.82,45.34,6.84,99.22,0.78,-0.0 -2029,10th,71.61,24.85,3.54,97.69,2.31,0.0 -2029,All,31.94,60.24,7.82,99.15,0.82,0.02 -2030,1st,29.51,59.0,11.49,93.51,6.1,0.39 -2030,2nd,29.57,57.56,12.87,98.97,1.03,0.0 -2030,3rd,21.04,77.44,1.52,99.52,0.45,0.03 -2030,4th,20.45,77.58,1.97,99.6,0.3,0.1 -2030,5th,22.27,72.12,5.61,99.17,0.82,0.02 -2030,6th,23.41,72.65,3.94,99.61,0.37,0.03 -2030,7th,18.23,79.56,2.21,99.74,0.26,0.0 -2030,8th,27.71,70.25,2.04,99.28,0.72,-0.0 -2030,9th,45.95,47.17,6.88,99.65,0.35,0.0 -2030,10th,71.87,23.95,4.18,99.19,0.81,-0.0 -2030,All,31.09,63.21,5.7,98.58,1.34,0.08 +year,decile,pct_gaining,pct_losing,pct_unchanged +2026,1st,32.0,38.63,29.37 +2026,2nd,40.9,43.14,15.96 +2026,3rd,24.67,49.64,25.69 +2026,4th,19.55,49.71,30.74 +2026,5th,22.53,49.8,27.67 +2026,6th,22.78,44.21,33.01 +2026,7th,19.32,45.52,35.17 +2026,8th,15.68,38.53,45.8 +2026,9th,13.76,19.43,66.82 +2026,10th,18.4,16.03,65.57 +2026,All,23.29,39.29,37.42 +2027,1st,66.47,27.62,5.91 +2027,2nd,66.27,32.47,1.27 +2027,3rd,63.68,35.29,1.03 +2027,4th,69.78,29.7,0.53 +2027,5th,66.48,30.99,2.53 +2027,6th,75.51,24.13,0.36 +2027,7th,72.02,27.88,0.1 +2027,8th,84.26,15.07,0.66 +2027,9th,89.86,9.73,0.41 +2027,10th,94.65,5.32,0.03 +2027,All,74.54,23.94,1.52 +2028,1st,79.97,19.27,0.76 +2028,2nd,76.56,23.27,0.17 +2028,3rd,70.12,29.09,0.79 +2028,4th,78.17,21.45,0.39 +2028,5th,76.54,23.0,0.46 +2028,6th,85.25,14.1,0.65 +2028,7th,79.83,19.75,0.41 +2028,8th,89.68,9.12,1.2 +2028,9th,95.05,4.5,0.45 +2028,10th,94.96,5.04,0.0 +2028,All,82.43,17.0,0.57 +2029,1st,84.65,14.92,0.44 +2029,2nd,80.9,18.26,0.85 +2029,3rd,79.21,19.24,1.55 +2029,4th,83.6,15.07,1.33 +2029,5th,84.91,14.93,0.17 +2029,6th,88.6,11.37,0.03 +2029,7th,87.33,12.16,0.51 +2029,8th,92.12,5.94,1.94 +2029,9th,95.65,4.31,0.04 +2029,10th,96.93,3.07,0.0 +2029,All,87.21,12.09,0.7 +2030,1st,57.08,42.27,0.65 +2030,2nd,70.9,28.95,0.15 +2030,3rd,70.29,29.5,0.21 +2030,4th,76.9,22.6,0.49 +2030,5th,76.84,23.1,0.06 +2030,6th,85.25,14.75,0.0 +2030,7th,80.34,19.66,0.0 +2030,8th,89.82,10.18,0.0 +2030,9th,94.53,5.47,0.0 +2030,10th,98.81,1.19,0.0 +2030,All,79.38,20.43,0.19 diff --git a/src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx b/src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx index a1a8128..1dfa851 100644 --- a/src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx +++ b/src/components/DetailedBudgetTable.jsx @@ -31,12 +31,9 @@ const SPENDING_PROGRAMS = [ "pension_credit", ]; -export default function DetailedBudgetTable({ data, selectedYear, termsMode = "nominal" }) { +export default function DetailedBudgetTable({ data, selectedYear }) { if (!data) return null; - const reformField = `reform_${termsMode}`; - const differenceField = `difference_${termsMode}`; - const filtered = data.filter( (row) => parseInt(row.year) === selectedYear, ); @@ -82,8 +79,8 @@ export default function DetailedBudgetTable({ data, selectedYear, termsMode = "n {PROGRAM_LABELS[row.program] || row.program} {formatValue(row.baseline)} - {formatValue(row[reformField])} - {formatValue(row[differenceField])} + {formatValue(row.reform)} + {formatValue(row.difference)} ))} diff --git a/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx b/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx index 85622ea..06eed4f 100644 --- a/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx +++ b/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx @@ -8,7 +8,6 @@ import { YAxis, CartesianGrid, Tooltip, - Legend, ResponsiveContainer, ReferenceLine, } from "recharts"; @@ -50,7 +49,7 @@ function ChangeBarChart({ comparison, termsMode }) {

Difference between Spring Statement and pre-Spring Statement forecasts - (\u00a3/year) + (£/year)

@@ -101,89 +100,6 @@ function ChangeBarChart({ comparison, termsMode }) { ); } -function BaselineReformedChart({ comparison, termsMode }) { - const reformedField = `reformed_hnet_${termsMode}`; - const chartData = comparison - .map((d) => ({ - group: shorten(d.group), - baseline: d.baseline_hnet, - reformed: d[reformedField], - })) - .sort((a, b) => a.baseline - b.baseline); - - return ( -
-

- Mean household net income by family type -

-

- Pre-Spring Statement vs Spring Statement forecast (\u00a3/year) -

-
- - - - - `\u00a3${(v / 1000).toFixed(0)}k` - } - tick={{ fontSize: 12, fill: "#6b7280" }} - /> - - [ - formatCurrency(value) + "/year", - name === "baseline" - ? "Pre-Spring Statement" - : "Spring Statement", - ]} - /> - - value === "baseline" - ? "Pre-Spring Statement" - : "Spring Statement" - } - wrapperStyle={{ fontSize: "0.8rem" }} - /> - - - - -
-
- ); -} - function HouseholdSummaryTable({ stats, comparison, termsMode }) { const reformedField = `reformed_hnet_${termsMode}`; const changeField = `change_${termsMode}`; @@ -236,7 +152,8 @@ function HouseholdSummaryTable({ stats, comparison, termsMode }) { ); } -export default function HouseholdArchetypes({ termsMode = "nominal" }) { +export default function HouseholdArchetypes() { + const [termsMode, setTermsMode] = useState("nominal"); const [stats, setStats] = useState(null); const [comparison, setComparison] = useState(null); @@ -258,7 +175,13 @@ export default function HouseholdArchetypes({ termsMode = "nominal" }) { return (
-

Impact by household type

+
+

Impact by household type

+
+ + +
+

-

- - -
+
diff --git a/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx b/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx index dea7e88..aea63b9 100644 --- a/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx +++ b/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx @@ -1,12 +1,16 @@ "use client"; +import { useState } from "react"; + const METRIC_LABELS = { gini: "Gini coefficient", top_10_pct_share: "Top 10% income share", top_1_pct_share: "Top 1% income share", }; -export default function InequalityTable({ data, selectedYear, termsMode = "nominal" }) { +export default function InequalityTable({ data, selectedYear }) { + const [termsMode, setTermsMode] = useState("nominal"); + if (!data) return null; const reformField = `reform_${termsMode}`; @@ -40,7 +44,13 @@ export default function InequalityTable({ data, selectedYear, termsMode = "nomin return (
-

Inequality impact

+
+

Inequality impact

+
+ + +
+

Change in income inequality metrics from revised OBR forecasts. Based on equivalised household net income. The Gini coefficient ranges from 0 (perfect equality) to 1 (perfect inequality).

diff --git a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx index a32af2e..fb6d6fa 100644 --- a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx +++ b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx @@ -12,7 +12,6 @@ import { ReferenceLine, } from "recharts"; import InequalityTable from "./InequalityTable"; -import DetailedBudgetTable from "./DetailedBudgetTable"; import HouseholdArchetypes from "./HouseholdArchetypes"; import parseCSV from "../../lib/parseCSV"; @@ -23,7 +22,7 @@ const DECILE_ORDER = [ "6th", "7th", "8th", "9th", "10th", ]; -function MetricsBar({ metrics, winnersLosers, distributional, year, termsMode }) { +function MetricsBar({ metrics, winnersLosers, distributional, year }) { const cards = []; if (distributional && distributional.length > 0) { @@ -31,7 +30,7 @@ function MetricsBar({ metrics, winnersLosers, distributional, year, termsMode }) (d) => d.year === year && d.decile === "All", ); if (allRow) { - const absChange = allRow[`absolute_change_${termsMode}`]; + const absChange = allRow.absolute_change_nominal; cards.push({ label: "Average household impact", value: `${absChange >= 0 ? "+" : ""}\u00a3${absChange.toFixed(0)}/year`, @@ -46,11 +45,11 @@ function MetricsBar({ metrics, winnersLosers, distributional, year, termsMode }) if (allRow) { cards.push({ label: "Households gaining", - value: `${allRow[`pct_gaining_${termsMode}`].toFixed(1)}%`, + value: `${allRow.pct_gaining.toFixed(1)}%`, }); cards.push({ label: "Households losing", - value: `${allRow[`pct_losing_${termsMode}`].toFixed(1)}%`, + value: `${allRow.pct_losing.toFixed(1)}%`, }); } } @@ -62,7 +61,7 @@ function MetricsBar({ metrics, winnersLosers, distributional, year, termsMode }) ); if (povertyChange) { cards.push({ - label: "Poverty rate change", + label: "Absolute poverty rate (BHC)", value: `${povertyChange.value >= 0 ? "+" : ""}${povertyChange.value.toFixed(2)} pp`, }); } @@ -82,7 +81,7 @@ function MetricsBar({ metrics, winnersLosers, distributional, year, termsMode }) ); } -function DistributionalChart({ data, year, termsMode }) { +function WinnersLosersChart({ data, year }) { const chartData = useMemo(() => { if (!data || data.length === 0) return []; return data @@ -91,122 +90,15 @@ function DistributionalChart({ data, year, termsMode }) { ) .map((d) => ({ decile: d.decile, - impact: d[`absolute_change_${termsMode}`], + gaining: d.pct_gaining, + losing: d.pct_losing ? -Math.abs(d.pct_losing) : 0, + unchanged: d.pct_unchanged || 0, })) .sort( (a, b) => DECILE_ORDER.indexOf(a.decile) - DECILE_ORDER.indexOf(b.decile), ); - }, [data, year, termsMode]); - - if (chartData.length === 0) return null; - - const termsLabel = termsMode === "real" ? " (real terms)" : ""; - - return ( -
-

Average annual impact by income decile

-

- Change in household net income{termsLabel} ({"\u00a3"}/year), {year}- - {(year + 1).toString().slice(-2)} -

-
- - - - - - `${v >= 0 ? "" : "-"}\u00a3${Math.abs(v).toFixed(0)}` - } - tickLine={false} - axisLine={false} - width={70} - allowDecimals={false} - tickCount={6} - label={{ - value: "Change in net income (\u00a3/year)", - angle: -90, - position: "insideLeft", - dx: -8, - style: { - textAnchor: "middle", - fill: "#374151", - fontSize: 12, - fontWeight: 500, - }, - }} - /> - - [ - `${value >= 0 ? "+" : ""}\u00a3${value.toFixed(2)}/year`, - "Impact", - ]} - labelFormatter={(label) => `${label} decile`} - /> - - - -
-

- Decile 1 = lowest income households, Decile 10 = highest income - households. Values show average annual change in household net income. -

-
- ); -} - -function WinnersLosersChart({ data, year, termsMode }) { - const chartData = useMemo(() => { - if (!data || data.length === 0) return []; - return data - .filter( - (d) => d.year === year && d.decile !== "All" && d.decile !== "Overall", - ) - .map((d) => ({ - decile: d.decile, - gaining: d[`pct_gaining_${termsMode}`], - losing: d[`pct_losing_${termsMode}`] ? -Math.abs(d[`pct_losing_${termsMode}`]) : 0, - unchanged: d[`pct_unchanged_${termsMode}`] || 0, - })) - .sort( - (a, b) => - DECILE_ORDER.indexOf(a.decile) - DECILE_ORDER.indexOf(b.decile), - ); - }, [data, year, termsMode]); + }, [data, year]); if (chartData.length === 0) return null; @@ -284,35 +176,21 @@ function WinnersLosersChart({ data, year, termsMode }) { export default function PopulationTab({ data }) { const [selectedYear, setSelectedYear] = useState(2026); - const [termsMode, setTermsMode] = useState("nominal"); - const [extraData, setExtraData] = useState({ - inequality: null, - detailedBudget: null, - }); + const [inequalityData, setInequalityData] = useState(null); - // Load extra CSV files for new components useEffect(() => { - Promise.all([ - fetch("/data/inequality.csv") - .then((r) => (r.ok ? r.text() : null)) - .catch(() => null), - fetch("/data/detailed_budgetary_impact.csv") - .then((r) => (r.ok ? r.text() : null)) - .catch(() => null), - ]).then(([inequality, detailedBudget]) => { - setExtraData({ - inequality: inequality ? parseCSV(inequality) : null, - detailedBudget: detailedBudget ? parseCSV(detailedBudget) : null, - }); - }); + fetch("/data/inequality.csv") + .then((r) => (r.ok ? r.text() : null)) + .then((text) => { + if (text) setInequalityData(parseCSV(text)); + }) + .catch(() => null); }, []); - const hasDistributional = - data?.distributional && data.distributional.length > 0; const hasWinnersLosers = data?.winnersLosers && data.winnersLosers.length > 0; - if (!hasDistributional && !hasWinnersLosers) { + if (!hasWinnersLosers) { return (

@@ -326,33 +204,16 @@ export default function PopulationTab({ data }) { return (

-
-
- {YEARS.map((year) => ( - - ))} -
- -
- +
+ {YEARS.map((year) => ( -
+ ))}
-
- {hasDistributional && ( - - )} - {hasWinnersLosers && ( - - )} -
+ {hasWinnersLosers && ( + + )} - - - +
); } diff --git a/src/spring_statement_data/calculators.py b/src/spring_statement_data/calculators.py index 3be1832..6b6734a 100644 --- a/src/spring_statement_data/calculators.py +++ b/src/spring_statement_data/calculators.py @@ -6,8 +6,8 @@ Uses native MicroSeries from PolicyEngine — sim.calculate() returns MicroSeries with weights. -All calculators output both nominal and real (CPI-deflated) values, -suffixed with _nominal and _real respectively. +Real-terms values use PolicyEngine's built-in ``real_household_net_income`` +(deflated to 2026 prices via ``inflation_adjustment``). """ import microdf as mdf @@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ import pandas as pd from policyengine_uk import Microsimulation -from .reforms import get_pre_statement_scenario, get_real_deflator +from .reforms import get_pre_statement_scenario # Programs for detailed budgetary breakdown (API v2 UKPrograms.PROGRAMS) UK_PROGRAMS = { @@ -62,27 +62,28 @@ class DistributionalImpactCalculator: def calculate(self, year: int) -> list[dict]: baseline, reformed = _create_simulations() - deflator = get_real_deflator(year) baseline_income = baseline.calculate("household_net_income", year) - reform_income_raw = reformed.calculate("household_net_income", year) + reform_income_nominal_raw = reformed.calculate("household_net_income", year) + baseline_income_real = baseline.calculate("real_household_net_income", year) + reform_income_real_raw = reformed.calculate("real_household_net_income", year) income_decile = baseline.calculate("household_income_decile", year) - # Nominal: reform values at their own price level + # Align reform weights to baseline reform_income_nominal = mdf.MicroSeries( - reform_income_raw.values, weights=baseline_income.weights + reform_income_nominal_raw.values, weights=baseline_income.weights ) - # Real: deflate reform income to baseline price level reform_income_real = mdf.MicroSeries( - reform_income_raw.values * deflator, weights=baseline_income.weights + reform_income_real_raw.values, weights=baseline_income_real.weights ) valid = np.array(income_decile) >= 0 baseline_income = baseline_income[valid] + baseline_income_real = baseline_income_real[valid] reform_income_nominal = reform_income_nominal[valid] reform_income_real = reform_income_real[valid] income_change_nominal = reform_income_nominal - baseline_income - income_change_real = reform_income_real - baseline_income + income_change_real = reform_income_real - baseline_income_real decile_values = income_decile[valid] results = [] @@ -93,11 +94,12 @@ def calculate(self, year: int) -> list[dict]: continue baseline_sum = baseline_income[mask].sum() + baseline_sum_real = baseline_income_real[mask].sum() change_sum_nom = income_change_nominal[mask].sum() change_sum_real = income_change_real[mask].sum() relative_nom = (change_sum_nom / baseline_sum) * 100 if baseline_sum > 0 else 0 - relative_real = (change_sum_real / baseline_sum) * 100 if baseline_sum > 0 else 0 + relative_real = (change_sum_real / baseline_sum_real) * 100 if baseline_sum_real > 0 else 0 avg_change_nom = income_change_nominal[mask].mean() avg_change_real = income_change_real[mask].mean() @@ -113,11 +115,12 @@ def calculate(self, year: int) -> list[dict]: total_change_nom = income_change_nominal.sum() total_change_real = income_change_real.sum() total_baseline = baseline_income.sum() + total_baseline_real = baseline_income_real.sum() overall_relative_nom = ( (total_change_nom / total_baseline) * 100 if total_baseline > 0 else 0 ) overall_relative_real = ( - (total_change_real / total_baseline) * 100 if total_baseline > 0 else 0 + (total_change_real / total_baseline_real) * 100 if total_baseline_real > 0 else 0 ) results.append({ "year": year, @@ -198,10 +201,9 @@ class InequalityCalculator: def calculate(self, year: int) -> list[dict]: baseline, reformed = _create_simulations() - deflator = get_real_deflator(year) results = [] - # Compute baseline once + # Compute baseline once (nominal: equiv_household_net_income) b_income = baseline.calculate("equiv_household_net_income", year) b_vals = b_income.values.copy() b_vals[b_vals < 0] = 0 @@ -218,15 +220,24 @@ def calculate(self, year: int) -> list[dict]: b_top_10_share = b_income_hh[b_in_top_10].sum() / b_total if b_total > 0 else 0 b_top_1_share = b_income_hh[b_in_top_1].sum() / b_total if b_total > 0 else 0 - # Compute reform for both nominal and real - r_income = reformed.calculate("equiv_household_net_income", year) + # Reform nominal: equiv_household_net_income + r_income_nom = reformed.calculate("equiv_household_net_income", year) r_hh_count = reformed.calculate("household_count_people", year) - r_original_weights = r_income.weights.copy() + r_original_weights = r_income_nom.weights.copy() r_person_weights = r_original_weights * np.array(r_hh_count) + # Reform real: real_household_net_income / household_equivalisation_bhc + r_real_hni = reformed.calculate("real_household_net_income", year) + r_equiv_bhc = reformed.calculate("household_equivalisation_bhc", year) + r_real_equiv_vals = np.where( + np.array(r_equiv_bhc) > 0, + np.array(r_real_hni) / np.array(r_equiv_bhc), + 0.0, + ) + reform_results = {} - for mode, factor in [("nominal", 1.0), ("real", deflator)]: - r_vals = r_income.values.copy() * factor + for mode, r_vals_raw in [("nominal", r_income_nom.values.copy()), ("real", r_real_equiv_vals.copy())]: + r_vals = r_vals_raw.copy() r_vals[r_vals < 0] = 0 r_income_ms = mdf.MicroSeries(r_vals, weights=r_person_weights) @@ -280,10 +291,11 @@ class IntraDecileCalculator: def calculate(self, year: int) -> list[dict]: baseline, reformed = _create_simulations() - deflator = get_real_deflator(year) baseline_income = baseline.calculate("household_net_income", year) - reform_income_raw = reformed.calculate("household_net_income", year) + reform_income_nominal_raw = reformed.calculate("household_net_income", year) + baseline_income_real = baseline.calculate("real_household_net_income", year) + reform_income_real_raw = reformed.calculate("real_household_net_income", year) income_decile = baseline.calculate("household_income_decile", year) hh_count_people = baseline.calculate("household_count_people", year) @@ -293,14 +305,19 @@ def calculate(self, year: int) -> list[dict]: results = [] - for mode, factor in [("nominal", 1.0), ("real", deflator)]: + mode_data = [ + ("nominal", baseline_income, reform_income_nominal_raw), + ("real", baseline_income_real, reform_income_real_raw), + ] + + for mode, base_inc, reform_inc_raw in mode_data: reform_income = mdf.MicroSeries( - reform_income_raw.values * factor, weights=baseline_income.weights + reform_inc_raw.values, weights=base_inc.weights ) # API v2 percentage change - absolute_change = (reform_income - baseline_income).values - capped_baseline = np.maximum(baseline_income.values, 1) + absolute_change = (reform_income - base_inc).values + capped_baseline = np.maximum(base_inc.values, 1) capped_reform = np.maximum(reform_income.values, 1) + absolute_change pct_change = (capped_reform - capped_baseline) / capped_baseline @@ -355,7 +372,6 @@ class DetailedBudgetaryImpactCalculator: def calculate(self, year: int) -> list[dict]: baseline, reformed = _create_simulations() - deflator = get_real_deflator(year) results = [] for program_name, info in UK_PROGRAMS.items(): @@ -368,17 +384,14 @@ def calculate(self, year: int) -> list[dict]: except Exception: continue - r_val_real = r_val * deflator sign = 1 if is_tax else -1 results.append({ "year": year, "program": program_name, "baseline": float(b_val / 1e6), - "reform_nominal": float(r_val / 1e6), - "reform_real": float(r_val_real / 1e6), - "difference_nominal": float(sign * (r_val - b_val) / 1e6), - "difference_real": float(sign * (r_val_real - b_val) / 1e6), + "reform": float(r_val / 1e6), + "difference": float(sign * (r_val - b_val) / 1e6), }) return results @@ -391,66 +404,56 @@ class WinnersLosersCalculator: def calculate(self, year: int) -> list[dict]: baseline, reformed = _create_simulations() - deflator = get_real_deflator(year) - baseline_income = baseline.calculate("household_net_income", year) - reformed_income = reformed.calculate("household_net_income", year) + baseline_income_real = baseline.calculate("real_household_net_income", year) + reformed_income_real = reformed.calculate("real_household_net_income", year) income_decile = baseline.calculate("household_income_decile", year) - weights = np.array(baseline_income.weights) + weights = np.array(baseline_income_real.weights) decile_arr = np.array(income_decile) - results = [] - - for mode, factor in [("nominal", 1.0), ("real", deflator)]: - change = mdf.MicroSeries( - reformed_income.values * factor, weights=reformed_income.weights - ) - baseline_income - change_arr = np.array(change) - - for decile in range(1, 11): - mask = decile_arr == decile - if not mask.any(): - continue + change = mdf.MicroSeries( + reformed_income_real.values, weights=baseline_income_real.weights + ) - baseline_income_real + change_arr = np.array(change) - w = weights[mask] - c = change_arr[mask] - total_w = w.sum() + results = [] - gaining = (w * (c > self.THRESHOLD)).sum() / total_w * 100 - losing = (w * (c < -self.THRESHOLD)).sum() / total_w * 100 - unchanged = 100.0 - gaining - losing + for decile in range(1, 11): + mask = decile_arr == decile + if not mask.any(): + continue - results.append({ - "year": year, - "decile": DECILE_LABELS[decile - 1], - f"pct_gaining_{mode}": round(gaining, 2), - f"pct_losing_{mode}": round(losing, 2), - f"pct_unchanged_{mode}": round(unchanged, 2), - }) + w = weights[mask] + c = change_arr[mask] + total_w = w.sum() - total_w = weights.sum() - gaining = (weights * (change_arr > self.THRESHOLD)).sum() / total_w * 100 - losing = (weights * (change_arr < -self.THRESHOLD)).sum() / total_w * 100 + gaining = (w * (c > self.THRESHOLD)).sum() / total_w * 100 + losing = (w * (c < -self.THRESHOLD)).sum() / total_w * 100 unchanged = 100.0 - gaining - losing results.append({ "year": year, - "decile": "All", - f"pct_gaining_{mode}": round(gaining, 2), - f"pct_losing_{mode}": round(losing, 2), - f"pct_unchanged_{mode}": round(unchanged, 2), + "decile": DECILE_LABELS[decile - 1], + "pct_gaining": round(gaining, 2), + "pct_losing": round(losing, 2), + "pct_unchanged": round(unchanged, 2), }) - # Merge nominal and real rows by (year, decile) - merged = {} - for row in results: - key = (row["year"], row["decile"]) - if key not in merged: - merged[key] = {"year": row["year"], "decile": row["decile"]} - merged[key].update({k: v for k, v in row.items() if k not in ("year", "decile")}) + total_w = weights.sum() + gaining = (weights * (change_arr > self.THRESHOLD)).sum() / total_w * 100 + losing = (weights * (change_arr < -self.THRESHOLD)).sum() / total_w * 100 + unchanged = 100.0 - gaining - losing - return list(merged.values()) + results.append({ + "year": year, + "decile": "All", + "pct_gaining": round(gaining, 2), + "pct_losing": round(losing, 2), + "pct_unchanged": round(unchanged, 2), + }) + + return results class HouseholdScatterCalculator: @@ -461,7 +464,6 @@ class HouseholdScatterCalculator: def calculate(self, year: int) -> pd.DataFrame: baseline, reformed = _create_simulations() - deflator = get_real_deflator(year) baseline_income = np.array( baseline.calculate("household_net_income", year) @@ -469,12 +471,18 @@ def calculate(self, year: int) -> pd.DataFrame: reformed_income = np.array( reformed.calculate("household_net_income", year) ) + baseline_income_real = np.array( + baseline.calculate("real_household_net_income", year) + ) + reformed_income_real = np.array( + reformed.calculate("real_household_net_income", year) + ) income_decile = np.array( baseline.calculate("household_income_decile", year) ) change_nominal = reformed_income - baseline_income - change_real = reformed_income * deflator - baseline_income + change_real = reformed_income_real - baseline_income_real mask = baseline_income <= self.MAX_INCOME df = pd.DataFrame({ @@ -505,15 +513,13 @@ def calculate( constituency_df: pd.DataFrame, ) -> list[dict]: baseline, reformed = _create_simulations() - deflator = get_real_deflator(year) - baseline_income = np.array( - baseline.calculate("household_net_income", year) + baseline_income_real = np.array( + baseline.calculate("real_household_net_income", year) ) - reformed_income = np.array( - reformed.calculate("household_net_income", year) + reformed_income_real = np.array( + reformed.calculate("real_household_net_income", year) ) - reformed_income_real = reformed_income * deflator results = [] @@ -525,7 +531,7 @@ def calculate( name = row.get("name", row.get("constituency_name", "")) w = weights[idx, :] - baseline_ms = mdf.MicroSeries(baseline_income, weights=w) + baseline_ms = mdf.MicroSeries(baseline_income_real, weights=w) reform_ms_real = mdf.MicroSeries(reformed_income_real, weights=w) baseline_sum = baseline_ms.sum() diff --git a/src/spring_statement_data/pipeline.py b/src/spring_statement_data/pipeline.py index f4c948f..474811c 100644 --- a/src/spring_statement_data/pipeline.py +++ b/src/spring_statement_data/pipeline.py @@ -25,7 +25,6 @@ DEFAULT_YEARS, generate_economic_forecast_json, get_pre_statement_scenario, - get_real_deflator, save_economic_forecast_json, ) @@ -198,7 +197,6 @@ def _generate_household_archetypes(output_dir: Path, year: int = 2029): from policyengine_uk import Microsimulation import microdf as mdf - deflator = get_real_deflator(year) scenario = get_pre_statement_scenario() baseline = Microsimulation(scenario=scenario) reformed = Microsimulation() @@ -206,13 +204,15 @@ def _generate_household_archetypes(output_dir: Path, year: int = 2029): groups = _classify_household(baseline, year) baseline_hnet = baseline.calculate("household_net_income", year) reform_hnet_raw = reformed.calculate("household_net_income", year) - # Nominal: reform at its own price level + baseline_hnet_real = baseline.calculate("real_household_net_income", year) + reform_hnet_real_raw = reformed.calculate("real_household_net_income", year) + + # Align reform weights to baseline reform_hnet_nominal = mdf.MicroSeries( reform_hnet_raw.values, weights=baseline_hnet.weights ) - # Real: deflate reform to baseline prices reform_hnet_real = mdf.MicroSeries( - reform_hnet_raw.values * deflator, weights=baseline_hnet.weights + reform_hnet_real_raw.values, weights=baseline_hnet_real.weights ) weights = np.array(baseline_hnet.weights) @@ -227,11 +227,13 @@ def _generate_household_archetypes(output_dir: Path, year: int = 2029): b_inc = baseline_hnet[mask] r_inc_nom = reform_hnet_nominal[mask] r_inc_real = reform_hnet_real[mask] + b_inc_real = baseline_hnet_real[mask] w = weights[mask] mean_b = float(b_inc.mean()) mean_r_nom = float(r_inc_nom.mean()) mean_r_real = float(r_inc_real.mean()) + mean_b_real = float(b_inc_real.mean()) median_b = float(b_inc.median()) weighted_n = float(w.sum()) @@ -247,7 +249,7 @@ def _generate_household_archetypes(output_dir: Path, year: int = 2029): "reformed_hnet_nominal": round(mean_r_nom), "reformed_hnet_real": round(mean_r_real), "change_nominal": round(mean_r_nom - mean_b), - "change_real": round(mean_r_real - mean_b), + "change_real": round(mean_r_real - mean_b_real), }) output_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) From c270736bc6f11696046b092758d9787a3e3db70f Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Vahid Ahmadi Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 19:00:02 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 13/27] edit --- src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx | 25 +++++++++---------------- src/components/InequalityTable.jsx | 14 ++------------ src/components/PopulationTab.jsx | 2 +- 3 files changed, 12 insertions(+), 29 deletions(-) diff --git a/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx b/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx index 06eed4f..576a608 100644 --- a/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx +++ b/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx @@ -1,6 +1,6 @@ "use client"; -import { useState, useEffect } from "react"; +import { useEffect, useState } from "react"; import { BarChart, Bar, @@ -33,8 +33,8 @@ function formatCurrencyChange(v) { return `${sign}\u00a3${Math.abs(v).toLocaleString("en-GB", { maximumFractionDigits: 0 })}`; } -function ChangeBarChart({ comparison, termsMode }) { - const changeField = `change_${termsMode}`; +function ChangeBarChart({ comparison }) { + const changeField = "change_nominal"; const chartData = comparison .map((d) => ({ group: shorten(d.group), @@ -100,9 +100,9 @@ function ChangeBarChart({ comparison, termsMode }) { ); } -function HouseholdSummaryTable({ stats, comparison, termsMode }) { - const reformedField = `reformed_hnet_${termsMode}`; - const changeField = `change_${termsMode}`; +function HouseholdSummaryTable({ stats, comparison }) { + const reformedField = "reformed_hnet_nominal"; + const changeField = "change_nominal"; return (
@@ -153,7 +153,6 @@ function HouseholdSummaryTable({ stats, comparison, termsMode }) { } export default function HouseholdArchetypes() { - const [termsMode, setTermsMode] = useState("nominal"); const [stats, setStats] = useState(null); const [comparison, setComparison] = useState(null); @@ -175,13 +174,7 @@ export default function HouseholdArchetypes() { return (
-
-

Impact by household type

-
- - -
-
+

Impact by household type

- + - +

); } diff --git a/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx b/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx index aea63b9..33919ca 100644 --- a/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx +++ b/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx @@ -1,7 +1,5 @@ "use client"; -import { useState } from "react"; - const METRIC_LABELS = { gini: "Gini coefficient", top_10_pct_share: "Top 10% income share", @@ -9,11 +7,9 @@ const METRIC_LABELS = { }; export default function InequalityTable({ data, selectedYear }) { - const [termsMode, setTermsMode] = useState("nominal"); - if (!data) return null; - const reformField = `reform_${termsMode}`; + const reformField = "reform_nominal"; const filtered = data.filter( (row) => parseInt(row.year) === selectedYear, @@ -44,13 +40,7 @@ export default function InequalityTable({ data, selectedYear }) { return (
-
-

Inequality impact

-
- - -
-
+

Inequality impact

Change in income inequality metrics from revised OBR forecasts. Based on equivalised household net income. The Gini coefficient ranges from 0 (perfect equality) to 1 (perfect inequality).

diff --git a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx index fb6d6fa..e257a02 100644 --- a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx +++ b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx @@ -61,7 +61,7 @@ function MetricsBar({ metrics, winnersLosers, distributional, year }) { ); if (povertyChange) { cards.push({ - label: "Absolute poverty rate (BHC)", + label: "Absolute poverty rate (BHC) change", value: `${povertyChange.value >= 0 ? "+" : ""}${povertyChange.value.toFixed(2)} pp`, }); } From 68b24c17689657268063ba9650d5219eea7c9f25 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Vahid Ahmadi Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 19:01:53 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 14/27] edit --- src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx | 4 ++-- src/components/PopulationTab.jsx | 4 ++-- 2 files changed, 4 insertions(+), 4 deletions(-) diff --git a/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx b/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx index 576a608..b7efb82 100644 --- a/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx +++ b/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx @@ -189,9 +189,9 @@ export default function HouseholdArchetypes() { projections.

- - + +
); } diff --git a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx index e257a02..255c1c6 100644 --- a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx +++ b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx @@ -223,6 +223,8 @@ export default function PopulationTab({ data }) { year={selectedYear} /> + + {hasWinnersLosers && ( - -
); } From ab8aad7a3231fa4a99cd514226daaabfec93e5ac Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Vahid Ahmadi Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 19:07:33 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 15/27] edit --- src/components/PopulationTab.jsx | 45 ++++++++++++++++++++++---------- 1 file changed, 31 insertions(+), 14 deletions(-) diff --git a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx index 255c1c6..09b81dc 100644 --- a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx +++ b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx @@ -2,8 +2,9 @@ import { useState, useMemo, useEffect } from "react"; import { - BarChart, + ComposedChart, Bar, + Line, XAxis, YAxis, CartesianGrid, @@ -88,12 +89,16 @@ function WinnersLosersChart({ data, year }) { .filter( (d) => d.year === year && d.decile !== "All" && d.decile !== "Overall", ) - .map((d) => ({ - decile: d.decile, - gaining: d.pct_gaining, - losing: d.pct_losing ? -Math.abs(d.pct_losing) : 0, - unchanged: d.pct_unchanged || 0, - })) + .map((d) => { + const gaining = d.pct_gaining; + const losing = d.pct_losing ? -Math.abs(d.pct_losing) : 0; + return { + decile: d.decile, + gaining, + losing, + net: gaining + losing, + }; + }) .sort( (a, b) => DECILE_ORDER.indexOf(a.decile) - DECILE_ORDER.indexOf(b.decile), @@ -111,7 +116,7 @@ function WinnersLosersChart({ data, year }) {

- [ - `${Math.abs(value).toFixed(1)}%`, - name === "gaining" ? "Gaining" : "Losing", - ]} + formatter={(value, name) => { + if (name === "net") return [`${value >= 0 ? "+" : ""}${value.toFixed(1)}%`, "Net"]; + return [ + `${Math.abs(value).toFixed(1)}%`, + name === "gaining" ? "Gaining" : "Losing", + ]; + }} labelFormatter={(label) => `${label} decile`} /> + - +
From ea1bfcb9dc04d9a597148a82ef446cef1d48ab30 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Vahid Ahmadi Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 19:08:24 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 16/27] edit --- src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx | 7 ++++++- 1 file changed, 6 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx b/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx index b7efb82..89d930c 100644 --- a/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx +++ b/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx @@ -107,6 +107,9 @@ function HouseholdSummaryTable({ stats, comparison }) { return (

Household income summary

+

+ Median and mean household net income by family type, comparing pre- and post-Spring Statement forecasts. +

@@ -191,7 +194,9 @@ export default function HouseholdArchetypes() { - +
+ +
); } From 6c4ad7ec66dd46ddc47a4d55d1a99f39d7949fd3 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Vahid Ahmadi Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 19:17:26 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 17/27] edit --- public/data/household_comparison.json | 222 +++++++++++++++++++++++++ public/data/household_stats.json | 174 +++++++++++++++++++ src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx | 22 ++- src/components/PopulationTab.jsx | 2 +- src/spring_statement_data/pipeline.py | 115 +++++++------ 5 files changed, 471 insertions(+), 64 deletions(-) diff --git a/public/data/household_comparison.json b/public/data/household_comparison.json index 46d25bd..78f2f0e 100644 --- a/public/data/household_comparison.json +++ b/public/data/household_comparison.json @@ -1,5 +1,168 @@ [ { + "year": 2026, + "group": "Single adult, no children", + "baseline_hnet": 27647, + "reformed_hnet_nominal": 27648, + "reformed_hnet_real": 27648, + "change_nominal": 0, + "change_real": 0 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "group": "Couple, no children", + "baseline_hnet": 70150, + "reformed_hnet_nominal": 70082, + "reformed_hnet_real": 70082, + "change_nominal": -68, + "change_real": -68 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "group": "Single parent", + "baseline_hnet": 37993, + "reformed_hnet_nominal": 37987, + "reformed_hnet_real": 37987, + "change_nominal": -6, + "change_real": -6 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "group": "Couple with children", + "baseline_hnet": 75762, + "reformed_hnet_nominal": 75784, + "reformed_hnet_real": 75784, + "change_nominal": 22, + "change_real": 22 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "group": "Single pensioner", + "baseline_hnet": 25853, + "reformed_hnet_nominal": 25856, + "reformed_hnet_real": 25856, + "change_nominal": 3, + "change_real": 3 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "group": "Pensioner couple", + "baseline_hnet": 52677, + "reformed_hnet_nominal": 52686, + "reformed_hnet_real": 52686, + "change_nominal": 9, + "change_real": 9 + }, + { + "year": 2027, + "group": "Single adult, no children", + "baseline_hnet": 28050, + "reformed_hnet_nominal": 28043, + "reformed_hnet_real": 27493, + "change_nominal": -7, + "change_real": -1 + }, + { + "year": 2027, + "group": "Couple, no children", + "baseline_hnet": 71313, + "reformed_hnet_nominal": 71388, + "reformed_hnet_real": 69989, + "change_nominal": 75, + "change_real": 87 + }, + { + "year": 2027, + "group": "Single parent", + "baseline_hnet": 38534, + "reformed_hnet_nominal": 38502, + "reformed_hnet_real": 37747, + "change_nominal": -32, + "change_real": -24 + }, + { + "year": 2027, + "group": "Couple with children", + "baseline_hnet": 76982, + "reformed_hnet_nominal": 76972, + "reformed_hnet_real": 75463, + "change_nominal": -9, + "change_real": 6 + }, + { + "year": 2027, + "group": "Single pensioner", + "baseline_hnet": 26280, + "reformed_hnet_nominal": 26281, + "reformed_hnet_real": 25765, + "change_nominal": 1, + "change_real": 6 + }, + { + "year": 2027, + "group": "Pensioner couple", + "baseline_hnet": 53563, + "reformed_hnet_nominal": 53577, + "reformed_hnet_real": 52527, + "change_nominal": 14, + "change_real": 24 + }, + { + "year": 2028, + "group": "Single adult, no children", + "baseline_hnet": 28510, + "reformed_hnet_nominal": 28501, + "reformed_hnet_real": 27394, + "change_nominal": -9, + "change_real": 8 + }, + { + "year": 2028, + "group": "Couple, no children", + "baseline_hnet": 72625, + "reformed_hnet_nominal": 72620, + "reformed_hnet_real": 69800, + "change_nominal": -5, + "change_real": 36 + }, + { + "year": 2028, + "group": "Single parent", + "baseline_hnet": 39125, + "reformed_hnet_nominal": 39090, + "reformed_hnet_real": 37572, + "change_nominal": -35, + "change_real": -12 + }, + { + "year": 2028, + "group": "Couple with children", + "baseline_hnet": 78200, + "reformed_hnet_nominal": 78203, + "reformed_hnet_real": 75167, + "change_nominal": 3, + "change_real": 48 + }, + { + "year": 2028, + "group": "Single pensioner", + "baseline_hnet": 26665, + "reformed_hnet_nominal": 26665, + "reformed_hnet_real": 25629, + "change_nominal": 0, + "change_real": 15 + }, + { + "year": 2028, + "group": "Pensioner couple", + "baseline_hnet": 54396, + "reformed_hnet_nominal": 54408, + "reformed_hnet_real": 52296, + "change_nominal": 13, + "change_real": 43 + }, + { + "year": 2029, "group": "Single adult, no children", "baseline_hnet": 28974, "reformed_hnet_nominal": 28961, @@ -8,6 +171,7 @@ "change_real": 15 }, { + "year": 2029, "group": "Couple, no children", "baseline_hnet": 73700, "reformed_hnet_nominal": 73682, @@ -16,6 +180,7 @@ "change_real": 52 }, { + "year": 2029, "group": "Single parent", "baseline_hnet": 39720, "reformed_hnet_nominal": 39678, @@ -24,6 +189,7 @@ "change_real": -3 }, { + "year": 2029, "group": "Couple with children", "baseline_hnet": 79390, "reformed_hnet_nominal": 79340, @@ -32,6 +198,7 @@ "change_real": 27 }, { + "year": 2029, "group": "Single pensioner", "baseline_hnet": 27058, "reformed_hnet_nominal": 27057, @@ -40,11 +207,66 @@ "change_real": 24 }, { + "year": 2029, "group": "Pensioner couple", "baseline_hnet": 55211, "reformed_hnet_nominal": 55223, "reformed_hnet_real": 52038, "change_nominal": 11, "change_real": 62 + }, + { + "year": 2030, + "group": "Single adult, no children", + "baseline_hnet": 29479, + "reformed_hnet_nominal": 29459, + "reformed_hnet_real": 27216, + "change_nominal": -20, + "change_real": 9 + }, + { + "year": 2030, + "group": "Couple, no children", + "baseline_hnet": 75192, + "reformed_hnet_nominal": 75099, + "reformed_hnet_real": 69380, + "change_nominal": -93, + "change_real": -18 + }, + { + "year": 2030, + "group": "Single parent", + "baseline_hnet": 40215, + "reformed_hnet_nominal": 40153, + "reformed_hnet_real": 37095, + "change_nominal": -63, + "change_real": -21 + }, + { + "year": 2030, + "group": "Couple with children", + "baseline_hnet": 80721, + "reformed_hnet_nominal": 80694, + "reformed_hnet_real": 74550, + "change_nominal": -26, + "change_real": 49 + }, + { + "year": 2030, + "group": "Single pensioner", + "baseline_hnet": 27396, + "reformed_hnet_nominal": 27392, + "reformed_hnet_real": 25306, + "change_nominal": -4, + "change_real": 21 + }, + { + "year": 2030, + "group": "Pensioner couple", + "baseline_hnet": 56021, + "reformed_hnet_nominal": 56032, + "reformed_hnet_real": 51765, + "change_nominal": 11, + "change_real": 61 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/public/data/household_stats.json b/public/data/household_stats.json index e9a8f1b..f91c494 100644 --- a/public/data/household_stats.json +++ b/public/data/household_stats.json @@ -1,38 +1,212 @@ [ { + "year": 2026, + "group": "Single adult, no children", + "mean_hnet": 27647, + "median_hnet": 23876, + "weighted_n": 5487196 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "group": "Couple, no children", + "mean_hnet": 70150, + "median_hnet": 59006, + "weighted_n": 8763130 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "group": "Single parent", + "mean_hnet": 37993, + "median_hnet": 35597, + "weighted_n": 2034406 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "group": "Couple with children", + "mean_hnet": 75762, + "median_hnet": 64338, + "weighted_n": 6704035 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "group": "Single pensioner", + "mean_hnet": 25853, + "median_hnet": 22400, + "weighted_n": 3891606 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "group": "Pensioner couple", + "mean_hnet": 52677, + "median_hnet": 47523, + "weighted_n": 4773454 + }, + { + "year": 2027, + "group": "Single adult, no children", + "mean_hnet": 28050, + "median_hnet": 24238, + "weighted_n": 5507498 + }, + { + "year": 2027, + "group": "Couple, no children", + "mean_hnet": 71313, + "median_hnet": 59824, + "weighted_n": 8795553 + }, + { + "year": 2027, + "group": "Single parent", + "mean_hnet": 38534, + "median_hnet": 36165, + "weighted_n": 2041933 + }, + { + "year": 2027, + "group": "Couple with children", + "mean_hnet": 76982, + "median_hnet": 65498, + "weighted_n": 6728840 + }, + { + "year": 2027, + "group": "Single pensioner", + "mean_hnet": 26280, + "median_hnet": 22718, + "weighted_n": 3906005 + }, + { + "year": 2027, + "group": "Pensioner couple", + "mean_hnet": 53563, + "median_hnet": 48505, + "weighted_n": 4791116 + }, + { + "year": 2028, + "group": "Single adult, no children", + "mean_hnet": 28510, + "median_hnet": 24532, + "weighted_n": 5529528 + }, + { + "year": 2028, + "group": "Couple, no children", + "mean_hnet": 72625, + "median_hnet": 60898, + "weighted_n": 8830735 + }, + { + "year": 2028, + "group": "Single parent", + "mean_hnet": 39125, + "median_hnet": 36492, + "weighted_n": 2050101 + }, + { + "year": 2028, + "group": "Couple with children", + "mean_hnet": 78200, + "median_hnet": 66446, + "weighted_n": 6755755 + }, + { + "year": 2028, + "group": "Single pensioner", + "mean_hnet": 26665, + "median_hnet": 22976, + "weighted_n": 3921629 + }, + { + "year": 2028, + "group": "Pensioner couple", + "mean_hnet": 54396, + "median_hnet": 49344, + "weighted_n": 4810280 + }, + { + "year": 2029, "group": "Single adult, no children", "mean_hnet": 28974, "median_hnet": 24878, "weighted_n": 5553858 }, { + "year": 2029, "group": "Couple, no children", "mean_hnet": 73700, "median_hnet": 61662, "weighted_n": 8869591 }, { + "year": 2029, "group": "Single parent", "mean_hnet": 39720, "median_hnet": 37036, "weighted_n": 2059121 }, { + "year": 2029, "group": "Couple with children", "mean_hnet": 79390, "median_hnet": 67388, "weighted_n": 6785480 }, { + "year": 2029, "group": "Single pensioner", "mean_hnet": 27058, "median_hnet": 23223, "weighted_n": 3938884 }, { + "year": 2029, "group": "Pensioner couple", "mean_hnet": 55211, "median_hnet": 50027, "weighted_n": 4831445 + }, + { + "year": 2030, + "group": "Single adult, no children", + "mean_hnet": 29479, + "median_hnet": 25242, + "weighted_n": 5578851 + }, + { + "year": 2030, + "group": "Couple, no children", + "mean_hnet": 75192, + "median_hnet": 62714, + "weighted_n": 8909504 + }, + { + "year": 2030, + "group": "Single parent", + "mean_hnet": 40215, + "median_hnet": 37382, + "weighted_n": 2068387 + }, + { + "year": 2030, + "group": "Couple with children", + "mean_hnet": 80721, + "median_hnet": 68462, + "weighted_n": 6816015 + }, + { + "year": 2030, + "group": "Single pensioner", + "mean_hnet": 27396, + "median_hnet": 23490, + "weighted_n": 3956609 + }, + { + "year": 2030, + "group": "Pensioner couple", + "mean_hnet": 56021, + "median_hnet": 50725, + "weighted_n": 4853187 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx b/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx index 89d930c..215159f 100644 --- a/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx +++ b/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx @@ -155,9 +155,9 @@ function HouseholdSummaryTable({ stats, comparison }) { ); } -export default function HouseholdArchetypes() { - const [stats, setStats] = useState(null); - const [comparison, setComparison] = useState(null); +export default function HouseholdArchetypes({ selectedYear }) { + const [allStats, setAllStats] = useState(null); + const [allComparison, setAllComparison] = useState(null); useEffect(() => { Promise.all([ @@ -168,12 +168,17 @@ export default function HouseholdArchetypes() { .then((r) => (r.ok ? r.json() : null)) .catch(() => null), ]).then(([statsData, compData]) => { - setStats(statsData); - setComparison(compData); + setAllStats(statsData); + setAllComparison(compData); }); }, []); - if (!stats || !comparison) return null; + if (!allStats || !allComparison) return null; + + const stats = allStats.filter((d) => d.year === selectedYear); + const comparison = allComparison.filter((d) => d.year === selectedYear); + + if (stats.length === 0 || comparison.length === 0) return null; return (
@@ -186,10 +191,9 @@ export default function HouseholdArchetypes() { marginBottom: "var(--pe-space-lg)", }} > - Using PolicyEngine's microsimulation model, we calculated average + Using PolicyEngine’s microsimulation model, we calculated average household net income for six household groups under pre-Spring Statement - and Spring Statement 2026 forecasts. These figures represent 2029 - projections. + and Spring Statement 2026 forecasts.

diff --git a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx index 09b81dc..da6674c 100644 --- a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx +++ b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx @@ -240,7 +240,7 @@ export default function PopulationTab({ data }) { year={selectedYear} /> - + {hasWinnersLosers && ( Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 19:19:05 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 18/27] edit --- src/components/PopulationTab.jsx | 14 ++++++++------ 1 file changed, 8 insertions(+), 6 deletions(-) diff --git a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx index da6674c..a9f40e9 100644 --- a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx +++ b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx @@ -242,12 +242,14 @@ export default function PopulationTab({ data }) { - {hasWinnersLosers && ( - - )} +
+ {hasWinnersLosers && ( + + )} +
Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 19:20:57 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 19/27] edit --- src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx | 4 ++-- 1 file changed, 2 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-) diff --git a/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx b/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx index 215159f..cd4a5d5 100644 --- a/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx +++ b/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx @@ -107,8 +107,8 @@ function HouseholdSummaryTable({ stats, comparison }) { return (

Household income summary

-

- Median and mean household net income by family type, comparing pre- and post-Spring Statement forecasts. +

+ Median and mean household net income by family type, comparing pre- and post-Spring Statement forecasts

From f4e92cc43bde17476d55b658c096ea5a4266de4e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Vahid Ahmadi Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 19:23:40 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 20/27] edit --- src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx | 17 +---------------- src/components/InequalityTable.jsx | 4 ++-- src/components/PopulationTab.jsx | 2 +- 3 files changed, 4 insertions(+), 19 deletions(-) diff --git a/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx b/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx index cd4a5d5..f7852ce 100644 --- a/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx +++ b/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx @@ -48,8 +48,7 @@ function ChangeBarChart({ comparison }) { Change in mean household net income by family type

- Difference between Spring Statement and pre-Spring Statement forecasts - (£/year) + Change in mean household net income by family type, comparing pre- and post-Spring Statement OBR forecasts (£/year)

@@ -182,20 +181,6 @@ export default function HouseholdArchetypes({ selectedYear }) { return (
-

Impact by household type

-

- Using PolicyEngine’s microsimulation model, we calculated average - household net income for six household groups under pre-Spring Statement - and Spring Statement 2026 forecasts. -

-
diff --git a/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx b/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx index 33919ca..5aca525 100644 --- a/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx +++ b/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx @@ -41,8 +41,8 @@ export default function InequalityTable({ data, selectedYear }) { return (

Inequality impact

-

- Change in income inequality metrics from revised OBR forecasts. Based on equivalised household net income. The Gini coefficient ranges from 0 (perfect equality) to 1 (perfect inequality). +

+ Change in Gini coefficient and top income shares under revised OBR forecasts, based on equivalised household net income

diff --git a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx index a9f40e9..c4df6cd 100644 --- a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx +++ b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx @@ -111,7 +111,7 @@ function WinnersLosersChart({ data, year }) {

Winners and losers by income decile

- Percentage of households gaining vs losing, {year}- + Share of households seeing a net gain or loss in income under revised OBR forecasts, by income decile, {year}- {(year + 1).toString().slice(-2)}

From 661dc2d276c206ae68378b92c81db6a6712ca554 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Vahid Ahmadi Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 19:27:22 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 21/27] edit --- src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx | 6 +++--- 1 file changed, 3 insertions(+), 3 deletions(-) diff --git a/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx b/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx index f7852ce..9c6000d 100644 --- a/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx +++ b/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx @@ -105,7 +105,7 @@ function HouseholdSummaryTable({ stats, comparison }) { return (
-

Household income summary

+

Impact on household income by family type

Median and mean household net income by family type, comparing pre- and post-Spring Statement forecasts

@@ -115,7 +115,7 @@ function HouseholdSummaryTable({ stats, comparison }) {
- + @@ -137,7 +137,7 @@ function HouseholdSummaryTable({ stats, comparison }) { From 47a6caeb03754f51fa933e57992762b86328c87d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Vahid Ahmadi Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 19:41:37 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 22/27] edit --- src/components/PopulationTab.jsx | 4 ++-- 1 file changed, 2 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-) diff --git a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx index c4df6cd..1cbf9b0 100644 --- a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx +++ b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx @@ -163,14 +163,14 @@ function WinnersLosersChart({ data, year }) { /> Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 19:44:00 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 23/27] edit --- src/components/PopulationTab.jsx | 4 ++-- 1 file changed, 2 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-) diff --git a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx index 1cbf9b0..f8aae52 100644 --- a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx +++ b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx @@ -163,14 +163,14 @@ function WinnersLosersChart({ data, year }) { /> Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 19:44:29 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 24/27] edit --- src/components/InequalityTable.jsx | 4 ++-- 1 file changed, 2 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-) diff --git a/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx b/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx index 5aca525..1f5f246 100644 --- a/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx +++ b/src/components/InequalityTable.jsx @@ -50,8 +50,8 @@ export default function InequalityTable({ data, selectedYear }) { - - + + From 73b2398a9840e2712675d848ec0f857f1e4a1759 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Vahid Ahmadi Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 19:46:25 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 25/27] color --- src/components/PopulationTab.jsx | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx index f8aae52..8880d66 100644 --- a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx +++ b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx @@ -163,7 +163,7 @@ function WinnersLosersChart({ data, year }) { /> Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 19:50:04 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 26/27] edit --- src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx | 8 ++++---- src/components/PopulationTab.jsx | 4 ++-- 2 files changed, 6 insertions(+), 6 deletions(-) diff --git a/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx b/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx index 9c6000d..02cf445 100644 --- a/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx +++ b/src/components/HouseholdArchetypes.jsx @@ -45,10 +45,10 @@ function ChangeBarChart({ comparison }) { return (

- Change in mean household net income by family type + Change in mean household net income by household type

- Change in mean household net income by family type, comparing pre- and post-Spring Statement OBR forecasts (£/year) + Change in mean household net income by household type, comparing pre- and post-Spring Statement OBR forecasts (£/year)

@@ -105,9 +105,9 @@ function HouseholdSummaryTable({ stats, comparison }) { return (
-

Impact on household income by family type

+

Impact on household income by household type

- Median and mean household net income by family type, comparing pre- and post-Spring Statement forecasts + Median and mean household net income by household type, comparing pre- and post-Spring Statement forecasts

Household type Median incomePopulationHouseholds (m) Mean income (pre) Mean income (post) Change{row.group} {formatCurrency(row.median_hnet)} - {Math.round(row.weighted_n).toLocaleString("en-GB")} + {(row.weighted_n / 1e6).toFixed(2)}m {formatCurrency(comp.baseline_hnet)} {formatCurrency(comp[reformedField])}
MetricNov 2025Mar 2026Pre-Spring StatementSpring Statement Change
diff --git a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx index 8880d66..79caf17 100644 --- a/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx +++ b/src/components/PopulationTab.jsx @@ -163,14 +163,14 @@ function WinnersLosersChart({ data, year }) { /> Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 19:53:43 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 27/27] Align header title with main content text Move horizontal padding from .title-row to .title-row-inner so the h1 text starts at the same x-position as the dashboard intro paragraph. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 --- app/App.css | 9 +++++++-- 1 file changed, 7 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/App.css b/app/App.css index 579e72e..2112ee9 100644 --- a/app/App.css +++ b/app/App.css @@ -34,7 +34,7 @@ background: rgba(15, 118, 110, 0.95); backdrop-filter: blur(12px); -webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(12px); - padding: var(--pe-space-md) var(--pe-space-xl); + padding: var(--pe-space-md) 0; width: 100%; position: sticky; top: 0; @@ -45,6 +45,7 @@ .title-row-inner { max-width: 1400px; margin: 0 auto; + padding: 0 var(--pe-space-xl); display: flex; justify-content: space-between; align-items: center; @@ -490,7 +491,11 @@ } .title-row { - padding: var(--pe-space-sm) var(--pe-space-md); + padding: var(--pe-space-sm) 0; + } + + .title-row-inner { + padding: 0 var(--pe-space-md); } .title-row h1 {