[Phase 2] Sharp vs Public Money Indicators

[WFord26]

---

name: "Phase 2: Sharp vs Public Money Indicators"
about: Identify which side professional bettors are backing
title: "[Phase 2] Sharp vs Public Money Indicators"
labels: enhancement, phase-2, analytics
assignees: ''

Overview

Detect and display indicators showing which side "sharp" (professional) money is backing versus "public" (recreational) money. This helps users understand market sentiment and make informed betting decisions.

Business Value

• Fade the Public: Historical data shows fading heavy public sides can be profitable
• Follow Sharp Money: Sharp bettors win long-term
• Market Understanding: Educates users on betting market dynamics
• Contrarian Opportunities: Identify when to go against the crowd

Technical Requirements

Database Changes

model SharpMoneyIndicator {
  id                  String   @id @default(dbgenerated("gen_random_uuid()")) @db.Uuid
  gameId              String   @map("game_id") @db.Uuid
  marketType          String   @map("market_type") @db.VarChar(20)
  calculatedAt        DateTime @default(now()) @map("calculated_at") @db.Timestamptz(6)
  
  // Indicators
  lineMovement        String   @map("line_movement") @db.VarChar(20)
  sharpSide           String   @map("sharp_side") @db.VarChar(20)
  publicSide          String   @map("public_side") @db.VarChar(20)
  
  // Confidence
  sharpConfidence     Int      @map("sharp_confidence")  // 1-10
  contraindicators    String[] @map("contraindicators")
  
  // External data (when integrated)
  publicBettingPct    Decimal? @map("public_betting_pct") @db.Decimal(5,2)
  publicMoneyPct      Decimal? @map("public_money_pct") @db.Decimal(5,2)
  
  game Game @relation(fields: [gameId], references: [id])
  
  @@index([gameId])
  @@index([sharpSide])
  @@index([calculatedAt])
  @@map("sharp_money_indicators")
}

Backend Services

File: src/services/sharp-indicator.service.ts

class SharpIndicatorService {
  async detectSharpSide(gameId: string): Promise<SharpIndicator>
  async calculateConfidence(indicators: Indicator[]): Promise<number>
  async trackPublicBetting(gameId: string): Promise<PublicData>
  async findContrarian Opportunities(): Promise<Game[]>
  async getHistoricalPerformance(): Promise<Stats>
}

Sharp Money Indicators (Internal Detection)

Indicator 1: Reverse Line Movement

• Line moves toward side with less public betting
• Example: 70% public on favorite, line moves to underdog
• Strength: Strong (8/10)

Indicator 2: Steam Move on Underdog

• Multiple sharp books move line toward underdog
• Within short timeframe (< 5 minutes)
• Strength: Very Strong (9/10)

Indicator 3: Opening Line Trap

• Opening line "baits" public to one side
• Sharp books immediately move opposite direction
• Strength: Strong (8/10)

Indicator 4: Low Odds Premium on Favorite

• Favorite has worse odds than expected
• Indicates books taking heavy public action
• Strength: Medium (6/10)

Indicator 5: Coordinated Bookmaker Movement

• Sharp books (Pinnacle, Circa, BetCRIS) move together
• Recreational books (DraftKings, FanDuel) lag behind
• Strength: Strong (7/10)

Detection Algorithm

function detectSharpSide(game: Game): SharpIndicator {
  const indicators = [];
  let confidence = 0;
  
  // Check for reverse line movement
  if (hasReverseMovement(game)) {
    indicators.push('reverse_movement');
    confidence += 8;
  }
  
  // Check for steam moves
  const steamMoves = getSteamMoves(game);
  if (steamMoves.length > 0) {
    indicators.push('steam_move');
    confidence += 9;
  }
  
  // Check sharp book behavior
  const sharpBooks = ['pinnacle', 'circa', 'betcris'];
  const sharpMovement = getBookmakerMovement(game, sharpBooks);
  if (sharpMovement.consensus) {
    indicators.push('sharp_consensus');
    confidence += 7;
  }
  
  // Normalize confidence to 1-10 scale
  confidence = Math.min(10, Math.round(confidence / indicators.length));
  
  return {
    sharpSide: determineSharpSide(indicators),
    publicSide: determinePublicSide(indicators),
    confidence,
    indicators
  };
}

External Data Integration (Future)

Public Betting Sources (when API available):

• Action Network API
• Sports Insights
• Pregame.com

Data Points:

• % of bets on each side (ticket count)
• % of money on each side (dollar volume)
• Sharp vs public money split

API Endpoints

• GET /api/analytics/sharp/live - Current sharp indicators
• GET /api/analytics/sharp/game/:gameId - Sharp indicators for game
• GET /api/analytics/sharp/performance - Historical sharp vs public performance
• GET /api/analytics/sharp/trends - Sharp money trends by sport/team

Frontend Components

Dashboard Widget: SharpMoneyAlert.tsx

• Shows games with high sharp confidence
• Visual indicator: 🔥 (hot), ⚡ (sharp), 📊 (data)
• Click to see full breakdown
• Filter by confidence threshold

Detailed Modal: SharpIndicatorBreakdown.tsx

• List all indicators detected
• Confidence score with explanation
• Historical win rate for this pattern
• "Follow Sharp Money" or "Fade Public" recommendation

Performance Dashboard: SharpVsPublicPerformance.tsx

• Line chart: Sharp side win rate over time
• Table: Best performing indicators
• Sport-specific breakdowns
• Your record following sharp indicators

Visual Design

Sharp Money Badge:

┌─────────────────────┐
│ 🔥 SHARP ACTION    │
│ Confidence: 9/10    │
│ Side: UNDER 48.5    │
│ Indicators: 4       │
└─────────────────────┘

Indicator Icons:

• ↩️ Reverse Line Movement
• ⚡ Steam Move
• 🎯 Sharp Book Consensus
• 📉 Opening Line Trap
• 💰 Money Disparity

Acceptance Criteria

• Database migration completed
• Sharp indicator detection algorithm implemented
• Scheduled calculation every 15 minutes
• Dashboard widget showing sharp opportunities
• Detailed indicator breakdown modal
• API endpoints documented
• Historical performance tracking
• Unit tests for detection logic

Dependencies

• Line movement tracking (Phase 1)
• Bookmaker analytics
• Historical game results for validation

Estimated Effort

• Backend: 6 days
• Frontend: 4 days
• Testing & Validation: 2 days
• Total: 12 days

Success Metrics

• Detect 10-15 sharp indicators per day
• 55%+ win rate on high-confidence sharp plays (historical validation)
• Users click through on 30%+ of sharp alerts
• Positive user feedback on feature accuracy

Future Enhancements

• External public betting data integration
• Machine learning for indicator weighting
• "Trap game" detection algorithm
• Sharp bettor tracking by bookmaker account limits