NovDemo-1: MPOX

[akruel01]

MPOX

Mpox is a zoonotic disease endemic in parts of Africa caused by an orthopoxvirus (same genus as smallpox). There are two pathways to human infection: animal-to-human, and human-to-human. There are two clades, each with subclades, endemic in parts of western and central Africa. These subclades have different disease severity and infectiousness. Often, outbreaks of both clades occur simultaneously, and testing isn’t always done to determine what percentage of the outbreak belongs to any particular clade. Sensitivity analysis can be used to handle the situation in which the clade is uncertain, or if a new subclade appears. The following publication includes a compartmental Mpox model with dynamics for both rodents and humans: “Unfolding the Transmission Dynamics of Monkeypox Virus: An Epidemiological Modelling Analysis”, Mathematics 2023, 11(5), 1121; https://doi.org/10.3390/math11051121

1. (TA1 Model Inges(on and Unit Test) From the paper, ingest the model described in set of equations (1), and replicate the following graph in Figure 1 (use 0.03045 as the value for
   $\beta$ rather than 0.3045 shown in the paper), where the y axis represents the total infected population ($𝐼_1+𝐼_2$).

*Figure 1. Unit test plot to replicate in Scenario 1, Q1*

[akruel01]

2. (TA3 Model Configuration and Forecasting) Configure the model with initial conditions
   defined in Section 4.1 and the parameter ranges described in the Table 2 of the paper,
   which reflect ranges of physically possible values. Perform a simulation of the range of
   plausible model outcomes for total infected population (I1+I2), and plot your results.