Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/dev' into sgratzl/newmenu

Author: sgratzl

.github/workflows/blog.yaml

@@ -40,6 +40,8 @@ jobs:
       #     conda list
       - name: Install R dependencies
         shell: bash -l {0}
+        env:
+          GITHUB_PAT: ${{ secrets.GITHUB_TOKEN }}
         run: |
           Rscript ./dependencies.R
       - name: Restore Blogdown Cache

assets/images/landing-page/hero-images/ensemble-hero.jpg

@@ -4,29 +4,29 @@ description: Developing the Theory and Practice of Epidemiological Forecasting
 layout: landing
 
 carousel:
-  - pre: Our Tools
+  - pre: Tools
     title: Real-time Indicators of COVID-19 Activity
     ref: covidcast
-    alt: Explore COVIDcast
+    alt: Explore the COVIDcast Dashboard
     image: covidcast_v2.jpg
-  - pre: Our Tools
-    title: Forecast Evaluation Dashboard
+  - pre: Tools
+    title: Evaluation of COVID-19 Forecasts
     link: /forecast-eval
-    alt: Explore the new COVID-19 forecast evaluation dashboard
+    alt: Explore the Forecast Evaluation Dashboard
     image: forecast_evaluation_dashboard.jpg
-  - pre: Our Tools
-    title: CTIS Results Dashboard
+  - pre: Tools
+    title: COVID Trends and Impact Survey (CTIS)
     ref: covidcast/survey-results
-    alt: Explore the COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey Results
+    alt: Explore the CTIS Dashboard
     image: covidcast_survey.jpg
-  - pre: Our Blog Post
-    title: New and improved COVID Symptom Survey Tracks Testing and Mask-Wearing
-    ref: 2020-10-06-survey-wave-4
-    alt: Learn more
-    image: landing-pg_hero-img-2_New and Improved COVID Symptom Survey Tracks Testing and Mask-Wearing.jpg
-  - pre: Our Research and White Papers
-    title: "Pancasting: forecasting epidemics from provisional data"
-    link: https://delphi.cmu.edu/~lcbrooks/brooks2020pancasting.pdf
+  - pre: Blog
+    title: On the Predictability of COVID-19
+    ref: 2021-09-30-ensemble-analysis
+    alt: View Post
+    image: ensemble-hero.jpg
+  - pre: Research
+    title: An Open Repository of Real-Time COVID-19 Indicators
+    link: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.12.21259660v1
     alt: View Paper
     image: landing-pg_hero-img-2_Pancasting_ forecasting epidemics from provisional data.jpg
 ---

assets/images/landing-page/hero-images/landing-pg_hero_vaccine_hispanic.jpg

@@ -6,62 +6,61 @@ layout: about
 collaborators:
 - name: Amazon
   group: collaborator
-- name: CDC
+- name: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
   group: collaborator
 - name: Change Healthcare
   group: collaborator
 - name: Defense Threat Reduction Agency
   group: collaborator
 - name: Facebook
   group: collaborator
-- name: Uptake
+- name: Google
+  group: collaborator
+- name: Google.org
   group: collaborator
 - name: Optum
   group: collaborator
-- name: Google.org
-  group: sponsor
+- name: Quidel Inc.
+  group: collaborator
+- name: Uptake
+  group: collaborator
 
 ---
 
 ### Who are we?
 
-We're a research group based out of Carnegie Mellon University dedicated to developing the theory and practice of epidemic tracking and forecasting. Pre-pandemic we worked mostly on influenza, dengue and norovirus; now we focus on COVID. We procure unique data streams that reflect epidemic (or pandemic) activity, extract relevant indicators, and make these publicly and continuously available. We and others then use these indicators for nowcasting (situational awareness) and short-term forecasting.
+We're a research group based out of Carnegie Mellon University dedicated to developing the theory and practice of epidemic tracking and forecasting. Pre-pandemic we worked mostly on influenza, dengue and norovirus; we've now picked up a focus on COVID. We procure unique data streams that reflect epidemic (or pandemic) activity, extract relevant indicators, and make these publicly and continuously available. We and others then use these indicators for nowcasting (situational awareness) and short-term forecasting.
 
 ### Who is our audience?
 
 Public health authorities (federal, state, local), the healthcare industry, the public and private sectors, fellow researchers working on epidemic tracking and forecasting, data journalists, and the general public.
 
 ### Delphi's milestones
 
-- Since 2013, we've supported U.S. CDC's Influenza Division in advancing and growing a [scientific community around flu forecasting](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/flusight/index.html). We've been [perennial leaders in forecasting accuracy](https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~roni/CDC%20Flu%20Challenge%202014-2018%20Results.pdf).
+In reverse chronological order.
 
-- Since 2016, we've developed the [Delphi Epidata API]({{< apiref "/" >}}), which provides real-time access to epidemiological surveillance data.
+- **April 2020.** We began supporting and advising the U.S. CDC in their community-driven COVID-19 forecasting effort. This work (collaborative with the [Reich Lab](https://reichlab.io) at UMass) includes:
 
-- Since 2016, we've been providing [flu nowcasts](https://delphi.cmu.edu/nowcast/) to U.S. CDC, states' departments of health, and the public.
+    * Creating and evaluating an ensemble forecast from the 70+ forecasts in the [COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://covid19forecasthub.org), which serves as the basis of the [CDC's official communications](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html) on COVID-19 forecasting.
 
-- Since 2019, we've been working directly with U.S. CDC as a National Center of Excellence for Influenza Forecasting (a 5-year designation).
+    * Creating a [forecast evaluation dashboard](https://delphi.cmu.edu/forecast-eval/), which provides an interactive analysis of the performance of Hub forecasters.
 
-- Since March 2020, we've created and maintained the [nation's largest public repository of diverse, geographically-detailed, real-time indicators of COVID-19 activity]({{< relref "covidcast" >}}) in the U.S. Our indicators cover every rung of the [severity pyramid](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1jvIycxDRMEIozKIowv2UyvSqZyF5y6jR8EAXUEK22D4/edit?usp=sharing), and are freely available through a [public API]({{< apiref "api/covidcast.html" >}}).
+- **March 2020.** We launched [COVIDcast]({{< relref "covidcast" >}}), the nation's largest public repository of diverse, real-time indicators of COVID-19 activity.
+    * Our indicators are freely available through a [public API]({{< apiref "api/covidcast.html" >}}), which is updated daily with the latest data.
 
-- Several of the underlying data sources (on which these indicators are built) would not exist or be publicly available without our efforts. This includes:
+    * Several of the underlying data sources (on which these indicators are built) would not exist or be publicly available without our efforts. This includes:
 
-  - A massive [national daily survey]({{< relref "ctis">}}) we're running in [partnership with Facebook](https://covid-survey.dataforgood.fb.com/survey_and_map_data.html). Over 12 million Americans have answered the survey since April, providing real-time insights into, e.g., [self-reported symptoms]({{< relref "2020-08-26-fb-survey#whats-in-the-survey" >}}), [mask wearing]({{< relref "2020-10-06-survey-wave-4.html#mask-wearing" >}}), [testing]({{< relref "2020-10-06-survey-wave-4#testing" >}}), and contacts, all broken down by various demographics.
+        *  A massive [national daily survey]({{< relref "surveys">}}) we're running in [partnership with Facebook](https://covid-survey.dataforgood.fb.com/survey_and_map_data.html). Over 20 million Americans have answered the survey since April 2020, providing real-time insights into, e.g., self-reported symptoms, mask wearing, testing, contacts, and vaccination.
 
-  - An enormous database of medical insurance claims that have been de-identified in accordance with HIPAA privacy regulations, covering more than half the US population, made possible through health system partners including Change Healthcare. We use this to produce a new [syndromic COVID-19 indicator based on doctor visits]({{< relref "2020-10-14-dv-signal" >}}), and other indicators based on hospitalizations and ICU admissions.
+        *  An enormous database of medical insurance claims that have been de-identified in accordance with HIPAA privacy regulations, covering more than half the U.S. population. This data is made available by health system partners including Change Healthcare, and provides insights into disease activity through outpatient visits and hospitalizations.
 
-- Since April 2020, we've been supporting and advising U.S. CDC in their community-driven COVID-19 forecasting effort, which includes [creating and evaluating an ensemble forecast]({{< relref "2020-09-21-forecast-demo" >}}) from the 70+ forecasts under submission that serves as the basis for the [CDC's official COVID-19 forecast communications](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html). We also contribute our own short-term forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths, which can be found in the [COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://covid19forecasthub.org).
 
+- **2019.** We became a CDC National Center of Excellence for Influenza Forecasting, one of two nationally (and a 5-year designation).
 
-### Activities
+- **2016.** We developed and deployed [influenza nowcasts](https://delphi.cmu.edu/nowcast/) for the CDC, state departments of public health, and the public.
 
-We have participated, and [have done very well](https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~roni/CDC%20Flu%20Challenge%202014-2018%20Results.pdf), in all epidemiological forecasting challenges organized by the US government to date:
+- **2016.** We developed and deployed the [Epidata API]({{< apiref "/" >}}), which provides real-time access to epidemiological surveillance data.
+
+- Since April 2020, we've been supporting and advising U.S. CDC in their community-driven COVID-19 forecasting effort, which includes [creating and evaluating an ensemble forecast]({{< relref "2020-09-21-forecast-demo" >}}) from the 70+ forecasts under submission that serves as the basis for the [CDC's official COVID-19 forecast communications](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html). We also contribute our own short-term forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths, which can be found in the [COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://covid19forecasthub.org).
 
-<!--            : 2013--2014, 2014--2015 (winner),
-    <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/flu-activity-forecasts-2016-2017.htm">2015--2016 (winner)</a>
-    ,
-    <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://predict.phiresearchlab.org/post/57f3f440123b0f563ece2576">2016--2017 (winner)</a>
-    <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/flusight/index.html#nav-group-aeff9">2017--2018 (winner)</a>-->
 
-* [Forecasting Seasonal Influenza in the US](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/flusight/) by [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov) 2013 -- current
-* [Forecasting Dengue in Puerto Rico and Peru](https://predict.cdc.gov/post/5a4fcc3e2c1b1669c22aa261) by the [White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/) [OSTP](https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/ostp)
-* [Forecasting the Chikungunya invasion of the Americas](https://www.innocentive.com/ar/challenge/9933617") by [DARPA](https://www.darpa.mil/)

content/_index.md

@@ -4,12 +4,12 @@ linkTitle: Center of Excellence
 layout: coe
 members:
 - name: Carnegie Mellon University
-  group: DELPHI Research Group
+  group: Delphi
   link: /
   location: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States
   pi:
-   - ryan # people keys
    - roni
+   - ryan
 - name: Carnegie Mellon University
   group: EPP
   link: https://www.cmu.edu/epp
@@ -31,27 +31,26 @@ members:
     - lipsitch
 
 sisters:
-- name: CDC's Influence Division
-  description: Our funders and collaborators at the [CDC's Influenza Division](https://www.cdc.gov/ncird/flu.html), specially the Influenza Applied Research & Modeling team at the [Epidemiology and Prevention branch](https://www.cdc.gov/hiv/dhap/eb/index.html).
+- name: CDC's Influenza Division
+  description: Our funders and collaborators at the [CDC's Influenza Division](https://www.cdc.gov/ncird/flu.html), in particular the Influenza Applied Research and Modeling team at the [Epidemiology branch](https://www.cdc.gov/hiv/dhap/eb/index.html).
   link: https://www.cdc.gov/ncird/flu.html
-  img: logos/cdc.png
 - name: University of Massachusetts Amherst
-  description: Our sister organization, the [Influenza Forecasting Center of Excellence at UMass Amherst](https://reichlab.io/).
+  description: Our sister organization, the [Influenza Forecasting Center of Excellence](https://reichlab.io/) at University of Massachusetts Amherst.
   link: https://reichlab.io/
-  img: logos/reichlab.png
 
 supporters:
-- Allegheny County Dept of Health
+- Allegheny County Department of Health
 - Change Healthcare
-- DTRA
+- Defense Thread Reduction Agency
 - Facebook
+- Google.org
 - Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute
-- Massachusetts Dept of Public Health
+- Massachusetts Department of Public Health
 - Microsoft Azure
-- Pennsylvania Dept. of Health
+- Pennsylvania Department of Health
 - Quidel Inc.
-- UnitedHealth / Optum
-- UPMC
+- Optum
+- University of Pittsburgh Medical Center
 ---
 
-The Delphi National Center of Excellence for Influenza Forecasting was established in 2019. It is a CDC funded and CDC-designated center working on advancing influenza forecasting, and enabling and improving the usefulness of forecasts of both seasonal and pandemic influenza. During the 2020 pandemic, the center expanded to include real-time tracking ("nowcasting") and forecasting of COVID-19, giving rise to the COVIDcast project.  Our goal is to inform public health responses and policy development at the national, state and local levels. Another goal is to inform and empower the general public, providing trustworthy information and reliable short term forecasts that increase the credibility of and trust in public health authorities.
+The Delphi National Center of Excellence for Influenza Forecasting was established in 2019. It is a CDC-funded and CDC-designated center working on advancing influenza forecasting, and enabling and improving the usefulness of forecasts of both seasonal and pandemic influenza. During the 2020 pandemic, the center expanded to include real-time tracking ("nowcasting") and forecasting of COVID-19, giving rise to the COVIDcast project. Our goal is to inform public health responses and policy development at the national, state and local levels. Another goal is to inform and empower the general public, providing reliable information and tools that increase the credibility of and trust in public health authorities.

content/about/_index.md

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 ---
 date: 2016-12-01
-title: Delphi wins 2015-2016 forecasting challenge
+title: Delphi Wins 2015-2016 Forecasting Challenge
 category: accomplishment
 ---
 
-[Our system took the top spot in the 2015-2016 flu forecasting challenge](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/flu-activity-forecasts-2016-2017.htm). ([Results summary](https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~roni/CDC%20Flu%20Challenge%202015-2016%20Results.pdf).)
+Our system took the [top spot in the flu forecasting challenge of 2015-2016](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/flu-activity-forecasts-2016-2017.htm), out of 14 submissions. ([Results summary](https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~roni/CDC%20Flu%20Challenge%202015-2016%20Results.pdf).)

content/about/center-of-excellence/index.md

@@ -1,10 +1,7 @@
 ---
 date: 2017-10-01
-title: Delphi wins 2016-2017 forecasting challenge
+title: Delphi Wins 2016-2017 Forecasting Challenge
 category: accomplishment
 ---
 
-We did it again! [Our
-two systems took the top two spots in the 2016-2017 flu forecasting
-challenge (out of 28 submissions).](https://www.cmu.edu/news/stories/archives/2017/september/flu-forecasts.html)
-([Results summary](https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~roni/CDC%20Flu%20Challenge%202016-2017%20Results.pdf).)
+We did it again! Our two systems took the [top two spots in the flu forecasting challenge of 2016-2017](https://www.cmu.edu/news/stories/archives/2017/september/flu-forecasts.html), out of 28 submissions. ([Results summary](https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~roni/CDC%20Flu%20Challenge%202016-2017%20Results.pdf).)

content/about/news/headless/2016_12.md

@@ -1,10 +1,7 @@
 ---
 date: 2018-10-01
-title: Delphi wins 2017-2018 forecasting challenge
+title: Delphi Wins 2017-2018 Forecasting Challenge
 category: accomplishment
 ---
 
-and yet again! Our forecasting systems took the top
-spot each of the three separate flu forecasting challenges of
-2017-2018 (out of up to 30 submissions).
-([Results summary](https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~roni/CDC%20Flu%20Challenge%202017-2018%20Results.pdf).)
+And yet again! Our forecasting systems took the top spot in each of the three separate flu forecasting challenges of 2017-2018, out of up to 30 submissions. ([Results summary](https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~roni/CDC%20Flu%20Challenge%202017-2018%20Results.pdf).)

content/about/news/headless/2017_10.md

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 ---
 date: 2019-10-01
-title: Delphi named 'Center of Excellence'
+title: Delphi named a Center of Excellence 
 category: accomplishment
 ---
 
-[CDC has just named us "National Center of Excellence for Influenza Forecasting"](https://www.cmu.edu/news/stories/archives/2019/october/cdc-funds-carnegie-mellons-flu-forecasting-center.html) (one of two nationally.)
+We were just named a national [Center of Excellence for Influenza Forecasting](https://www.cmu.edu/news/stories/archives/2019/october/cdc-funds-carnegie-mellons-flu-forecasting-center.html) by the CDC, one of two nationally. This is a 5 year designation.