From 97fb92e967399e6e20ebaefb25fcffbcd0fa1764 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Georg Hartmann Date: Sat, 28 Apr 2018 17:12:47 -0500 Subject: [PATCH 1/4] Start translation de --- de.html | 1683 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 1683 insertions(+) create mode 100644 de.html diff --git a/de.html b/de.html new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7a5fc20 --- /dev/null +++ b/de.html @@ -0,0 +1,1683 @@ + + + + + + + + Die Weisheit und/oder der Wahnsinn der Massen + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
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lädt...
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+ die +
+ WEISHEIT + und/oder + der + WAHNSINN +
+ der +
+ MASSEN +
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+ + + + von nicky case • Übersetzung von Georg Hartmann • original in English +
+ + + + + + + + + lädt... + + + + Los!
+ + + + + + + +

+ + Sir Isaac Newton was pretty sure he was a +
+ smart cookie. I mean, after inventing calculus and +
+ a theory of gravity, he should be clever enough to do +
+ some financial investing, right? Anyway, long story short, he +
+ lost $4,600,000 (in today's dollars) in the nationwide +
+ speculation frenzy known as the South Sea Bubble of 1720. + +

+ + As Mr. Newton later said: “I can calculate the motion of +
+ heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.” + + yeah sucks for him
+ + + + + +
+ + Of course, that's not the only +
+ time markets, institutions, or entire +
+ democracies went haywire — the madness of +
+ crowds. And yet, just when you lose hope in humanity, +
+ you see citizens coordinating to rescue each other in +
+ hurricanes, communities creating solutions to problems, +
+ people fighting for a better world — the wisdom of crowds! + +
+ + But why do some crowds turn to madness, or wisdom? No theory +
+ can explain everything, but I think a new field of study, +
+ network science, can guide us! And its core idea is this: to +
+ understand crowds, we should look not at the individual +
+ people, but at... + + ...their connections.
+ + + + + + + Let's draw a network! + Each connection represents a friendship between two people: + + + + draw to connect + + + + scratch to   disconnect + + + + + when you're done doodling and playing around, + let's continue
+ + + + + + Now, social connections are for more than just making pretty pictures. + People look to their social connections to understand their world. + For example, people look to their peers to + find out what % of their friends (not counting themselves) are, + say, binge-drinkers. + + + + + Draw/erase connections, and see what happens!
+ + + + cool, got it + + + + However, networks can fool people. + Just like how the earth seems flat because we're on it, + people may get wrong ideas about society because they're in it. + + + +
+ optional extra bonus notes! ↑ +
+
+ ↓ links and references +
+ + + + + + +
+ + For example, a 1991 study showed that + “virtually all [college] students reported that their friends drank more than they did.” + But that seems impossible! + How can that be? + Well, you're about to invent the answer yourself, by drawing a network. + It's time to... + + FOOL EVERYONE
+ + + + + + PUZZLE TIME! +
+ Fool everyone into thinking + the majority of their friends (50% threshold) are binge-drinkers + (even though binge-drinkers are outnumbered 2-to-1!) + + + + FOOLED: + + + out of 9 people + + + Congrats! You manipulated a group of students into believing + in the prevalance of an incredibly unhealthy social norm! Good going! + ...uh. thanks? + + + + + What you just created is called The Majority Illusion, + which also explains why people think their political views are consensus, + or why extremism seems more common than it actually is. + Madness. + + + + But people don't just passively observe others' ideas and behaviors, + they actively copy them. + So now, let's look at something network scientists call... + + “Contagions!”
+ + + + + + + + Let's put aside the "threshold" thing for now. + Below: we have a person with some information. + Some misinformation. "Fake news", as the cool kids say. + And every day, that person spreads the rumor, like a virus, to their friends. + And they spread it to their friends. And so on. +
+ + Start the simulation!
+ (p.s: you can't draw while the sim's running) + + + + + Note: despite the negative name, "contagions" can be good or bad (or neutral or ambiguous). + There's strong statistical evidence that + smoking, health, happiness, voting patterns, and cooperation levels + are all "contagious" -- + and even some evidence that suicides and mass shootings are, too. + + + + well that's depressing
+ + + + Indeed it is. + Anyway, PUZZLE TIME! +
+ Draw a network & run the simulation, + so that everyone gets infected with the "contagion". +
+ (new rule: you can't cut the thick connections) + + + + fan-flipping-tastic
+ + + + This madness-spreading is called an "information cascade". + Mr. Newton fell for such a cascade in 1720. + The world's financial institutions fell for such a cascade in 2008. +

+ However: this simulation is wrong. + Most ideas don't spread like viruses. + For many beliefs and behaviors, you need to be "exposed" to the contagion more than just once + in order to be "infected". + So, network scientists have come up with a new, better way to + describe how ideas/behaviors spread, and they call it... + “Complex Contagions!”
+ + + + + + + Let's bring back "thresholds" and the binge-drinking example! + When you played with this the first time, people didn't change their behavior. + +

+ + Now, let's simulate what happens if people start drinking + when 50%+ of their friends do! + Before you start the sim, ask yourself what you think should happen. + +

+ + Now, run the sim, and see what actually happens!
+ + + + + + + Unlike our earlier "fake news" contagion, + this contagion does not spread to everyone! + The first few people get "infected", because although they're only exposed to one + binge-drinker, that binge-drinker is 50% of their friends. (yeah, they're lonely) + In contrast, the person near the end of the chain did not get "infected", + because while they were exposed to a binge-drinking friend, + they did not pass the 50%+ threshold. + +
+ + The relative % of "infected" friends matters. + That's the difference between the complex contagion theory, + and our naive it-spreads-like-a-virus simple contagion theory. + (you could say "simple contagions" are just contagions with a "more than 0%" infection threshold) + +
+ + However, contagions aren't necessarily bad — + so enough about crowd madness, what about... + ...crowd wisdom? + + + + + + + Here, we have a person who volunteers to... I don't know, + rescue people in hurricanes, or tutor underprivileged kids in their local community, or something cool like that. + Point is, it's a "good" complex contagion. + This time, though, let's say the threshold is only 25% — + people are willing to volunteer, but only if 25% or more of their friends do so, too. + Hey, goodwill needs a bit of social encouragement. + +

+ + ← Get everyone "infected" with the good vibes! + + + + + + + NOTE: Volunteering is just one of many complex contagions! + Others include: voter turnout, lifestyle habits, + challenging your beliefs, + taking time to understand a issue deeply — anything + that needs more than one "exposure". + Complex contagions aren't necessarily wise, + but being wise is a complex contagion. + +
+ + (So what's a real-life simple contagion? + Usually bits of trivia, like, "the possum has 13 nipples") + + + + Now, to really show the power and weirdness of complex contagions, let's revisit... + + ...an earlier puzzle
+ + + + + + Remember this? This time, with a complex contagion , it'll be a bit tougher... +
+ Try to "infect" everyone with complex wisdom!
+ + + + (feel free to just hit 'start' and try as many solutions as you want) + + + + HOT DANG
+ + + + Now, you may think that you just need to keep adding connections to spread any contagion, + "complex" or "simple", good or bad, wise or mad. + But is that really so? Well, let's revisit... + + + ...another earlier puzzle
+ + + + If you hit "start" below, the complex contagion will just spread to everyone. + No surprise there. + But now, let's do the opposite of everything we've done before: + draw a network to prevent the contagion from spreading to everyone!
+ + + + You see? + While more connections will always help the spread of simple ideas, + more connections can hurt the spread of complex ideas! + (makes you wonder about the internet, hm?) + And this isn't just a theoretical problem. This can be a matter of life... + + + + ...or death.
+ + + + + The people at NASA were smart cookies. + I mean, they'd used Newton's theories to get us to the moon. + Anyway, long story short, in 1986, + despite warnings from the engineers, + they launched the Challenger, + which blew up and killed 7 people. + The immediate cause: + it was too cold that morning. + +
+ + The less immediate cause: the managers ignored the engineers' warnings. + Why? Because of groupthink. + When a group is too closely knit, (as they tend to be at the top of institutions) + they become resistant to complex ideas that challenge their beliefs or ego. + +
+ + So, that's how institutions can fall to crowd madness. + But how can we "design" for crowd wisdom? + In short, two words: + + Bonding & Bridging
+ + + + + + + ← Too few connections, and an idea can't spread. +
+ Too many connections, and you get groupthink.
+ + + + + Draw a group that hits the sweet spot: + just connected enough to spread a complex idea! +
+ + + + + Simple enough! + The number of connections within a group is called bonding social capital. + But what about the connections... + ...between groups? + + + + As you may have already guessed, + the number of connections between groups is called + bridging social capital. + This is important, because it helps groups break out of their insular echo chambers! +
+ Build a bridge, to "infect" everyone with complex wisdom: + + + + Like bonding, there's a sweet spot for bridging, too. + (extra challenge: try drawing a bridge so thick that the complex contagion + can't pass through it!) + Now that we know how to "design" connections within and between groups, let's... + ...do BOTH at the same time! + + + + + FINAL PUZZLE! +
+ Draw connections within groups (bonding) and between groups (bridging) + to spread wisdom to the whole crowd: + + + + + Congrats, you've just drawn a very special kind of network! + Networks with the right mix of bonding and bridging + are profoundly important, and they're called... + “Small World Networks”
+ + + + + "Unity without uniformity". "Diversity without division". "E Pluribus Unum: out of many, one". +
+ No matter how it's phrased, + people across times and cultures often arrive at the same piece of wisdom: + + a healthy society needs a sweet spot of bonds within groups + and bridges between groups. + + That is: + + + + Not this... +
+ (because ideas can't spread) + + + nor this... +
+ (because you'll get groupthink) + + + ...but THIS: + + + + Network scientists now have a mathematical definition for this ancient wisdom: + the small world network. + This optimal mix of bonding+bridging describes how + our neurons are connected, + fosters collective creativity + and problem-solving, + and even once helped US President John F. Kennedy (barely) avoid nuclear war! + So, yeah, small worlds are a big deal. + + + + ok, let's wrap this up...
+ + + + + + (pst... wanna know a secret?) + + + + Contagion: + + + simple + + + complex + + + The Contagion's Color: + + + Select a tool... + + + + Draw Network + + + Add Person + + + Add "Infected" + + + Drag Person + + + Delete Person + + + CLEAR IT ALL + + + + (...or, use keyboard shortcuts!) + + + + [1]: Add Person     [2]: Add "Infected" +
+ [Space]: Drag     [Backspace]: Delete + + + + + + +
+ IN CONCLUSION: it's all about... +
+
+ Contagions & Connections +
+ +
+ Contagions: + Like how neurons pass signals in a brain, + people pass beliefs & behaviors in a society. + Not only do we influence our friends, + we also influence our friends' friends, and even our friends' friends' friends! + (“be the change you wanna see in the world” etc etc) + But, like neurons, it's not just signals that matter, it's also... +
+ +
+ Connections: + Too few connections and complex ideas can't spread. + Too many connections and complex ideas get crushed by groupthink. + The trick is to build a small world network, the optimal mix of + bonding and bridging: e pluribus unum. +
+ +
+ (wanna make your own simulations? + check out Sandbox Mode, by clicking the (★) button below!) +
+ +
+ So, what about our question from the very beginning? + Why do some crowds turn to... +
+
+ ...wisdom and/or madness? +
+ + + + + + +
+ + From Newton to NASA to +
+ network science, we've covered a lot here +
+ today. Long story short, the madness of crowds +
+ is not necessarily due to the individual people, but due +
+ to how we're trapped in a network's sticky web. + +
+ + That does NOT mean abandoning personal responsibility, for +
+ we're also the weavers of that web. So, improve your contagions: +
+ be skeptical of ideas that flatter you, spend time understanding +
+ complex ideas. And, improve your connections: bond with similar +
+ folk, but also build bridges across cultural/political divides. + +
+ + We can weave a wise web. Sure, it's harder than doodling +
+ lines on a screen... + + ...but so, so worth it. + + + + + + + “The great triumphs and tragedies of history are caused, + not by people being fundamentally good or fundamentally bad, + but by people being fundamentally people.” + +
+ ~ Neil Gaiman & Terry Pratchett +
+ <3 + + + + + + +
+ + + created by +
+ NICKY CASE
+ + play my other shtuff · + + follow my tweeter + +

+ + + lots of love and thanks to +
+ MY PATREON SUPPORTERS
+ + see names & drawings of supporters · + + see playtesters +
+ + help me make more like this! <3 + +

+ + + ♫ music is + + "Friends 2018" and "Friends 2068" + by Komiku +
+ </> Crowds is + + fully open source + + +
+ + + +
+ + + + + + WIN + + + start simulation + + + reset & re-draw + + + Fan-made translations: + + + + + What the, no fan-made translations exist yet?! + + + (add your own!) + + + + + + + + + + +

+ A quick response to James Surowiecki's The Wisdom of Crowds +

+ +
+ + + + First off, I'm not dissing + + this book. + It's a good book, and Surowiecki was trying to tackle the same question I am: + “why do some crowds turn to madness, or wisdom?” + +

+ + Surowiecki's answer: crowds make good decisions when everybody is as independent as possible. + He gives the story of a county fair, + where the townsfolk were invited to guess the weight of an ox. + Surprisingly, the average of all their guesses was better than any one guess. + But, here's the rub: the people have to guess independently of each other. + Otherwise, + they'd be influenced by earlier incorrect guesses, + and the average answer would be highly skewed. + +

+ + But... I don't think "make everyone as independent as possible" is the full answer. + Even geniuses, who we mischaracterize as the most independent thinkers, + are deeply influenced by others. As Sir Isaac Newton said, + “If I have seen further, it is by standing on the sholders of Giants.” + +

+ + So, which idea is correct? + Does wisdom come from thinking for yourself, or thinking with others? + The answer is: "yes". + +

+ + So that's what I'll try to explain in this explorable explanation: + how to get that sweet spot between independence and interdependence — + that is, how to get a wise crowd. + +
+ + + + +

+ What other kinds of connections are there? +

+ +
+ + For the sake of simplicity, + my simulations pretend that people can only be connected through friendships, + and that all friendships are equal. + But network scientists do consider other ways we can be connected, such as: + +
+
+ + + Directional connections. Alice is the boss of Bob, but Bob is not the boss of Alice. + Carol is the parent of Dave, but Dave is not the parent of Carol. + "Boss" & "parent" are directional relationships: + the relationship only goes one way. + In contrast, "friends" is a bidirectional relationship: + the relationship goes both ways. (well, hopefully) + +
+
+ + + Weighted connections. Elinor and Frankie are mere acquaintances. + George and Harry are Best Friends Forever. + Even though there's a "friendship" connection in both cases, the second one is stronger. + We say that these two connections have different "weights". + +
+
+ + + Just remember: all these simulations are wrong. The same way any map is "wrong". + You see the map on the left? Buildings aren't gray featureless blocks! + Words don't float above the city! However, maps are useful not despite being simplified, + but because they're simplified. Same goes for simulations, or any scientific theory. + Of course they're "wrong" — that's what makes them useful. + +
+ + + + +

+ What other kinds of contagions are there? +

+ +
+ + There are so, so many ways that network scientists can simulate "contagions"! + I picked the simplest one, for educational purposes. + But here's other ways you could do it: + +
+
+ + + Contagions with Randomness. + Being "exposed" to a contagion doesn't guarantee you'll be infected, + it only makes it more likely. + +
+
+ + + People have different contagion thresholds. + My simulations pretend that everyone has the same threshold for binge-drinking (50%) or + volunteering (25%) or misinformation (0%). + Of course, that's not true in real life, and you could make your sim reflect that. + +
+
+ + + An ecology of contagions. + What if there were multiple contagions, with different thresholds? + For example, a simple "madness" contagion and a complex "wisdom" contagion. + If someone's infected with madness, can they still be infected with wisdom? + Or vice versa? + Can someone be infected with both? + +
+
+ + + Contagions that mutate and evolve. + Ideas don't pass perfectly from one person to another the way a virus does. + Like a game of Telephone, the message gets mutated with each re-telling — + and sometimes the mutant will be more infectious than the original! + So, over time, ideas "evolve" to be more catchy, copy-able, contagious. + +
+ +
+ + + + +

+ I wanna learn more! What else can I read and/or play? +

+ +
+ + This explorable explanation was just a springboard for your curiosity, + so you can dive deeper into a vast pool of knowledge! + Here's more stuff on networks or social systems: + +

+ + + Book: + + Connected + by Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler (2009). + An accessible tour of how our networks affect our lives, for good or ill. + + Here's an excerpt: Preface & Chapter 1 + + +
+
+ + + Interactive: + + The Evolution of Trust by Nicky Case (me) (2017). + A game about the game theory of how cooperation is built... or destroyed. + +
+
+ + + Interactive: + + Parable of the Polygons by Vi Hart and Nicky Case (also me) (2014). + A story about how harmless choices can create a harmful world. + +
+
+ + + Or, if you just want to see a whole gallery of interactive edu-things, here's + + Explorable Explanations, + a hub for learning through play! + +
+ +
+ + + + + + + + + + + +

+ “virtually all [college] students reported that their friends drank more than they did.” +

+ +
+ + “Biases in the perception of drinking norms among college students” by Baer et al (1991) +
+ + + + +

+ “The Majority Illusion” +

+ +
+ + “The Majority Illusion in Social Networks” by Lerman et al (2016). +
+ Related: + The Friendship Paradox. +
+ + + +

+ “strong statistical evidence that + smoking, health, happiness, voting patterns, and cooperation levels + are all contagious” +

+ +
+ + From Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler's + wonderfully-written, layperson-accessible book, + + Connected (2009). + +
+ + + +

+ “some evidence that suicides are [contagious], too” +

+ +
+ + “Suicide Contagion and the Reporting of Suicide: Recommendations from a National Workshop” + by O'Carroll et al (1994), endorsed by the frickin' Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC). +
+ + + + +

+ “some evidence that mass shootings are [contagious], too” +

+ +
+ + + “Contagion in Mass Killings and School Shootings” by Towers et al (2015). + +

+ + Also see: the + + Don't Name Them campaign, + which urges that news outlets DO NOT air mass murderers' names, manifestos, and social media feeds. + This spreads the contagion. + Instead, news outlets should focus on the victims, first responders, civilian heroes, + and the grieving, healing community. + +
+ + + + +

+ “The world's financial institutions fell for such a cascade in 2008.” +

+ +
+ + “Lemmings of Wall Street” by Cass Sunstein, is a quick, non-technical read. + Published in Oct 2008, right in the wake of the crash. +
+ + + + +

+ “the complex contagion theory.” +

+ +
+ + + “Threshold Models of Collective Behavior” by Granovetter (1978) + was the first time, as far as I know, anyone described a "complex contagion" model. + (although he didn't use that specific name) + +

+ + + “Evidence for complex contagion models of social contagion from observational data” + by Sprague & House (2017) + shows that complex contagions do, in fact, exist. (at least, in the social media data they looked at) + +

+ + Finally, + + “Universal behavior in a generalized model of contagion” by Dodds & Watts (2004) + proposes a model that unifies all kinds of contagions: + simple and complex, biological and social! + +
+ + + +

+ “the possum has 13 nipples” +

+
+ arranged in a ring of 12 nipples, plus one in the middle +
+ + + +

+ “groupthink” +

+ +
+ This Orwell-inspired phrase was coined by Irving L. Janis in 1971. + + In his original article, + Janis investigates cases of groupthink, lists its causes, and — thankfully — + some possible remedies. +
+ + + + +

+ “bonding and bridging social capital” +

+ +
+ These two types of social capital — "bonding" and "bridging" — + were named by Robert Putnam in his insightful 2000 book, + + Bowling Alone. His discovery: + across almost all empircal measures of social connectiveness, + Americans are more alone than ever. + Golly. +
+ + + + +

+ “bridging social capital has a sweet spot” +

+ +
+ + “The Strength of Weak Ties” by Granovetter (1973) + showed that connections across groups helps spread simple contagions (like information), + but + + “Complex Contagions and the Weakness of Long Ties” by Centola & Macy (2007) + showed that connections across groups may not help complex contagions, + and it fact, can hurt their spread! +
+ + + + +

+ “the small world network” +

+ +
+ + The idea of the "small world" was popularized by + Travers & Milgram's 1969 experiment, + which showed that, on average, any two random people in the United States + were just six friendships apart — "six degrees of separation"! + +

+ + The small-world network got more mathematical meat on its bones with + + “Collective dynamics of small-world networks” by Watts & Strogatz (1998), + which proposed an algorithm for creating networks + with both low average path length (low degree of separation) + and high clustering (friends have lots of mutual friends) — + that is, a network that hits the sweet spot! + +

+ + You can also play with + + the visual, interactive adaptation of that paper by Bret Victor (2011). + +
+ + + + +

+ “[small world networks] describe how our neurons are connected” +

+ +
+ + “Small-world brain networks” by Bassett & Bullmore (2006). +
+ + + + +

+ “[small world networks] give rise to collective creativity” +

+ +
+ + + “Collaboration and Creativity: The Small World Problem” by Uzzi & Spiro (2005). + This paper analyzed the social network of the Broadway scene over time, + and discovered that, yup, the network's most creative when it's a "small world" network! + +
+ + + + +

+ “[small world networks] give rise to collective problem-solving” +

+ +
+ See + + “Social Physics” by MIT Professor Alex "Sandy" Pentland (2014) + for a data-based approach to collective intelligence. +
+ + + + +

+ “[small world networks] helped John F. Kennedy (barely) avoid nuclear war!” +

+ +
+ + Besides the NASA Challenger explosion, the most notorious example of groupthink + was the Bay of Pigs fiasco. + In 1961, US President John F. Kennedy and his team of advisors thought + — for some reason — + it would be a good idea to secretly invade Cuba and overthrow Fidel Castro. + They failed. + Actually, worse than failed: it led to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, + the closest the world had ever been to full-scale nuclear war. + +

+ + Yup, JFK really screwed up on that one. + +

+ + But, having learnt some hard lessons from the Bay of Pigs fiasco, + JFK re-organized his team to avoid groupthink. + Among many things, he: + 1) actively encouraged people to voice criticism, + thus lowering the "contagion threshold" for alternate ideas. + And + 2) he broke his team up into sub-groups before reconvening, + which gave their group a "small world network"-like design! + Together, this arrangement allowed for a healthy diversity of opinion, + but without being too fractured — a wisdom of crowds. + +

+ + And so, with the same individuals who decided the Bay of Pigs, + but re-arranged collectively to decide on the Cuban Missile Crisis... + JFK's team was able to reach a peaceful agreement with Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev. + The Soviets would remove their missiles from Cuba, and in return, + the US would promise not to invade Cuba again. + (and also agreed, in secret, to remove the US missiles from Turkey) + +

+ + And that's the story of how all of humanity almost died. + But a small world network saved the day! Sort of. + +

+ + You can read more about this + + on Harvard Business Review, + or from + + the original article on groupthink. + +
+ + + + +

+ “we influence [...] our friends' friends' friends!” +

+ +
+ Again, from Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler's + wonderful book, + + Connected (2009). +
+ + + +

+ “be skeptical of ideas that flatter you” +

+
+ yes, including the ideas in this explorable explanation. +
+ + + +

+ ★ Sandbox Mode ★ +

+ +
+ The keyboard shortcuts (1, 2, space, backspace) + work in all the puzzles, not just Sandbox Mode! + Seriously, you can go back to a different chapter, + and edit the simulation right there. + In fact, that's how I created all these puzzles. Have fun! +
+ + + + + + + + From d9a3d45d80d91c3d05584c4c251fff77f377385f Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Georg Hartmann Date: Sat, 28 Apr 2018 18:05:37 -0500 Subject: [PATCH 2/4] WIP --- de.html | 58 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++----------------------------- 1 file changed, 28 insertions(+), 30 deletions(-) diff --git a/de.html b/de.html index 7a5fc20..cfaef70 100644 --- a/de.html +++ b/de.html @@ -317,26 +317,24 @@

- - Sir Isaac Newton was pretty sure he was a + Sir Isaac Newton war sich ziemlich sicher, dass er ein
- smart cookie. I mean, after inventing calculus and + kluges Köpfchen war. Ich meine, nachdem er die Differentia-
- a theory of gravity, he should be clever enough to do + rechnung und ein Gravitationsgesetz erfunden hatte, sollte
- some financial investing, right? Anyway, long story short, he + ihm finanzielle Investition nicht allzu schwer fallen, oder?
- lost $4,600,000 (in today's dollars) in the nationwide + Um es kurz zu machen: Er verlor $4.600.000 (in heutigen dollar)
- speculation frenzy known as the South Sea Bubble of 1720. - + in einer Finanzblase, der South Sea Bubble von 1720.

- As Mr. Newton later said: “I can calculate the motion of + Newton hielt später fest: “Ich kann die Bewegungen von
- heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.” + Himmelskörpern berechnen, aber nicht den Wahnsinn der Menschen.” - yeah sucks for him
+ Ups, armer Isaac
 @@ -344,55 +342,55 @@
- Of course, that's not the only + Das war natürlich nicht das einzige Mal
- time markets, institutions, or entire + ,dass Märkte, Institutionen oder ganze
- democracies went haywire — the madness of + Demokratien verrückt gespielt haben — der Wahnsinn der
- crowds. And yet, just when you lose hope in humanity, + Massen. Und dennoch; gerade wenn man die Hoffung in die Menschheit verliert,
- you see citizens coordinating to rescue each other in + sieht man Bürger die Rettungsaktionen nach Hurrikanen organisieren,
- hurricanes, communities creating solutions to problems, + Gemeinschaften, die Lösungen für Probleme finden,
- people fighting for a better world — the wisdom of crowds! + Menschen, die für eine Bessere Welt kämpfen — die Weisheit der Massen!
- But why do some crowds turn to madness, or wisdom? No theory + Aber warum spielen manche Massen verrückt, oder erscheinen weise? Keine Theorie
- can explain everything, but I think a new field of study, + kann alles erklären, aber ich glaube, eine neue Disziplin, die
- network science, can guide us! And its core idea is this: to + Netzwerk Forschung, kann uns leiten! Die zentrale Idee ist: um
- understand crowds, we should look not at the individual + massen zu verstehen, sollten wir nicht auf einzelne
- people, but at... + Menschen, sondern auf - ...their connections.
+ deren Verbindungen schauen.
 - Let's draw a network! - Each connection represents a friendship between two people: + Lass uns ein Netzwerk zeichnen! + Jede Verbindung steht für eine Freundschaft zwischen zwei Menschen: - draw to connect + Ziehe eine Linie um zu verbinden - scratch to   disconnect + Radiere um die Verbindung zu kappen - when you're done doodling and playing around, - let's continue
+ wenn du fertig mit dem Herumspielen bist, + Lass uns fortfahren
From 643e5856187145757f24de04365dbc099c127370 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Georg Hartmann Date: Sat, 28 Apr 2018 18:06:24 -0500 Subject: [PATCH 3/4] Rename file temporarly to better see changes --- de.html | 1681 ---------------------------------------------------- index.html | 133 +++-- 2 files changed, 66 insertions(+), 1748 deletions(-) delete mode 100644 de.html diff --git a/de.html b/de.html deleted file mode 100644 index cfaef70..0000000 --- a/de.html +++ /dev/null @@ -1,1681 +0,0 @@ - - - - - - - - Die Weisheit und/oder der Wahnsinn der Massen - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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lädt...
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- die -
- WEISHEIT - und/oder - der - WAHNSINN -
- der -
- MASSEN -
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- - - - von nicky case • Übersetzung von Georg Hartmann • original in English -
- - - - - - - - - lädt... - - - - Los!
- - - - - - - -

- Sir Isaac Newton war sich ziemlich sicher, dass er ein -
- kluges Köpfchen war. Ich meine, nachdem er die Differentia- -
- rechnung und ein Gravitationsgesetz erfunden hatte, sollte -
- ihm finanzielle Investition nicht allzu schwer fallen, oder? -
- Um es kurz zu machen: Er verlor $4.600.000 (in heutigen dollar) -
- in einer Finanzblase, der South Sea Bubble von 1720. -

- - Newton hielt später fest: “Ich kann die Bewegungen von -
- Himmelskörpern berechnen, aber nicht den Wahnsinn der Menschen.” - - Ups, armer Isaac
 - - - - - -
- - Das war natürlich nicht das einzige Mal -
- ,dass Märkte, Institutionen oder ganze -
- Demokratien verrückt gespielt haben — der Wahnsinn der -
- Massen. Und dennoch; gerade wenn man die Hoffung in die Menschheit verliert, -
- sieht man Bürger die Rettungsaktionen nach Hurrikanen organisieren, -
- Gemeinschaften, die Lösungen für Probleme finden, -
- Menschen, die für eine Bessere Welt kämpfen — die Weisheit der Massen! - -
- - Aber warum spielen manche Massen verrückt, oder erscheinen weise? Keine Theorie -
- kann alles erklären, aber ich glaube, eine neue Disziplin, die -
- Netzwerk Forschung, kann uns leiten! Die zentrale Idee ist: um -
- massen zu verstehen, sollten wir nicht auf einzelne -
- Menschen, sondern auf - - deren Verbindungen schauen.
 - - - - - - - Lass uns ein Netzwerk zeichnen! - Jede Verbindung steht für eine Freundschaft zwischen zwei Menschen: - - - - Ziehe eine Linie um zu verbinden - - - - Radiere um die Verbindung zu kappen - - - - - wenn du fertig mit dem Herumspielen bist, - Lass uns fortfahren
- - - - - - Now, social connections are for more than just making pretty pictures. - People look to their social connections to understand their world. - For example, people look to their peers to - find out what % of their friends (not counting themselves) are, - say, binge-drinkers. - - - - - Draw/erase connections, and see what happens!
- - - - cool, got it - - - - However, networks can fool people. - Just like how the earth seems flat because we're on it, - people may get wrong ideas about society because they're in it. - - - -
- optional extra bonus notes! ↑ -
-
- ↓ links and references -
- - - - - - -
- - For example, a 1991 study showed that - “virtually all [college] students reported that their friends drank more than they did.” - But that seems impossible! - How can that be? - Well, you're about to invent the answer yourself, by drawing a network. - It's time to... - - FOOL EVERYONE
- - - - - - PUZZLE TIME! -
- Fool everyone into thinking - the majority of their friends (50% threshold) are binge-drinkers - (even though binge-drinkers are outnumbered 2-to-1!) - - - - FOOLED: - - - out of 9 people - - - Congrats! You manipulated a group of students into believing - in the prevalance of an incredibly unhealthy social norm! Good going! - ...uh. thanks? - - - - - What you just created is called The Majority Illusion, - which also explains why people think their political views are consensus, - or why extremism seems more common than it actually is. - Madness. - - - - But people don't just passively observe others' ideas and behaviors, - they actively copy them. - So now, let's look at something network scientists call... - - “Contagions!”
- - - - - - - - Let's put aside the "threshold" thing for now. - Below: we have a person with some information. - Some misinformation. "Fake news", as the cool kids say. - And every day, that person spreads the rumor, like a virus, to their friends. - And they spread it to their friends. And so on. -
- - Start the simulation!
- (p.s: you can't draw while the sim's running) - - - - - Note: despite the negative name, "contagions" can be good or bad (or neutral or ambiguous). - There's strong statistical evidence that - smoking, health, happiness, voting patterns, and cooperation levels - are all "contagious" -- - and even some evidence that suicides and mass shootings are, too. - - - - well that's depressing
- - - - Indeed it is. - Anyway, PUZZLE TIME! -
- Draw a network & run the simulation, - so that everyone gets infected with the "contagion". -
- (new rule: you can't cut the thick connections) - - - - fan-flipping-tastic
- - - - This madness-spreading is called an "information cascade". - Mr. Newton fell for such a cascade in 1720. - The world's financial institutions fell for such a cascade in 2008. -

- However: this simulation is wrong. - Most ideas don't spread like viruses. - For many beliefs and behaviors, you need to be "exposed" to the contagion more than just once - in order to be "infected". - So, network scientists have come up with a new, better way to - describe how ideas/behaviors spread, and they call it... - “Complex Contagions!”
- - - - - - - Let's bring back "thresholds" and the binge-drinking example! - When you played with this the first time, people didn't change their behavior. - -

- - Now, let's simulate what happens if people start drinking - when 50%+ of their friends do! - Before you start the sim, ask yourself what you think should happen. - -

- - Now, run the sim, and see what actually happens!
- - - - - - - Unlike our earlier "fake news" contagion, - this contagion does not spread to everyone! - The first few people get "infected", because although they're only exposed to one - binge-drinker, that binge-drinker is 50% of their friends. (yeah, they're lonely) - In contrast, the person near the end of the chain did not get "infected", - because while they were exposed to a binge-drinking friend, - they did not pass the 50%+ threshold. - -
- - The relative % of "infected" friends matters. - That's the difference between the complex contagion theory, - and our naive it-spreads-like-a-virus simple contagion theory. - (you could say "simple contagions" are just contagions with a "more than 0%" infection threshold) - -
- - However, contagions aren't necessarily bad — - so enough about crowd madness, what about... - ...crowd wisdom? - - - - - - - Here, we have a person who volunteers to... I don't know, - rescue people in hurricanes, or tutor underprivileged kids in their local community, or something cool like that. - Point is, it's a "good" complex contagion. - This time, though, let's say the threshold is only 25% — - people are willing to volunteer, but only if 25% or more of their friends do so, too. - Hey, goodwill needs a bit of social encouragement. - -

- - ← Get everyone "infected" with the good vibes! - - - - - - - NOTE: Volunteering is just one of many complex contagions! - Others include: voter turnout, lifestyle habits, - challenging your beliefs, - taking time to understand a issue deeply — anything - that needs more than one "exposure". - Complex contagions aren't necessarily wise, - but being wise is a complex contagion. - -
- - (So what's a real-life simple contagion? - Usually bits of trivia, like, "the possum has 13 nipples") - - - - Now, to really show the power and weirdness of complex contagions, let's revisit... - - ...an earlier puzzle
- - - - - - Remember this? This time, with a complex contagion , it'll be a bit tougher... -
- Try to "infect" everyone with complex wisdom!
- - - - (feel free to just hit 'start' and try as many solutions as you want) - - - - HOT DANG
- - - - Now, you may think that you just need to keep adding connections to spread any contagion, - "complex" or "simple", good or bad, wise or mad. - But is that really so? Well, let's revisit... - - - ...another earlier puzzle
- - - - If you hit "start" below, the complex contagion will just spread to everyone. - No surprise there. - But now, let's do the opposite of everything we've done before: - draw a network to prevent the contagion from spreading to everyone!
- - - - You see? - While more connections will always help the spread of simple ideas, - more connections can hurt the spread of complex ideas! - (makes you wonder about the internet, hm?) - And this isn't just a theoretical problem. This can be a matter of life... - - - - ...or death.
- - - - - The people at NASA were smart cookies. - I mean, they'd used Newton's theories to get us to the moon. - Anyway, long story short, in 1986, - despite warnings from the engineers, - they launched the Challenger, - which blew up and killed 7 people. - The immediate cause: - it was too cold that morning. - -
- - The less immediate cause: the managers ignored the engineers' warnings. - Why? Because of groupthink. - When a group is too closely knit, (as they tend to be at the top of institutions) - they become resistant to complex ideas that challenge their beliefs or ego. - -
- - So, that's how institutions can fall to crowd madness. - But how can we "design" for crowd wisdom? - In short, two words: - - Bonding & Bridging
- - - - - - - ← Too few connections, and an idea can't spread. -
- Too many connections, and you get groupthink.
- - - - - Draw a group that hits the sweet spot: - just connected enough to spread a complex idea! -
- - - - - Simple enough! - The number of connections within a group is called bonding social capital. - But what about the connections... - ...between groups? - - - - As you may have already guessed, - the number of connections between groups is called - bridging social capital. - This is important, because it helps groups break out of their insular echo chambers! -
- Build a bridge, to "infect" everyone with complex wisdom: - - - - Like bonding, there's a sweet spot for bridging, too. - (extra challenge: try drawing a bridge so thick that the complex contagion - can't pass through it!) - Now that we know how to "design" connections within and between groups, let's... - ...do BOTH at the same time! - - - - - FINAL PUZZLE! -
- Draw connections within groups (bonding) and between groups (bridging) - to spread wisdom to the whole crowd: - - - - - Congrats, you've just drawn a very special kind of network! - Networks with the right mix of bonding and bridging - are profoundly important, and they're called... - “Small World Networks”
- - - - - "Unity without uniformity". "Diversity without division". "E Pluribus Unum: out of many, one". -
- No matter how it's phrased, - people across times and cultures often arrive at the same piece of wisdom: - - a healthy society needs a sweet spot of bonds within groups - and bridges between groups. - - That is: - - - - Not this... -
- (because ideas can't spread) - - - nor this... -
- (because you'll get groupthink) - - - ...but THIS: - - - - Network scientists now have a mathematical definition for this ancient wisdom: - the small world network. - This optimal mix of bonding+bridging describes how - our neurons are connected, - fosters collective creativity - and problem-solving, - and even once helped US President John F. Kennedy (barely) avoid nuclear war! - So, yeah, small worlds are a big deal. - - - - ok, let's wrap this up...
- - - - - - (pst... wanna know a secret?) - - - - Contagion: - - - simple - - - complex - - - The Contagion's Color: - - - Select a tool... - - - - Draw Network - - - Add Person - - - Add "Infected" - - - Drag Person - - - Delete Person - - - CLEAR IT ALL - - - - (...or, use keyboard shortcuts!) - - - - [1]: Add Person     [2]: Add "Infected" -
- [Space]: Drag     [Backspace]: Delete - - - - - - -
- IN CONCLUSION: it's all about... -
-
- Contagions & Connections -
- -
- Contagions: - Like how neurons pass signals in a brain, - people pass beliefs & behaviors in a society. - Not only do we influence our friends, - we also influence our friends' friends, and even our friends' friends' friends! - (“be the change you wanna see in the world” etc etc) - But, like neurons, it's not just signals that matter, it's also... -
- -
- Connections: - Too few connections and complex ideas can't spread. - Too many connections and complex ideas get crushed by groupthink. - The trick is to build a small world network, the optimal mix of - bonding and bridging: e pluribus unum. -
- -
- (wanna make your own simulations? - check out Sandbox Mode, by clicking the (★) button below!) -
- -
- So, what about our question from the very beginning? - Why do some crowds turn to... -
-
- ...wisdom and/or madness? -
- - - - - - -
- - From Newton to NASA to -
- network science, we've covered a lot here -
- today. Long story short, the madness of crowds -
- is not necessarily due to the individual people, but due -
- to how we're trapped in a network's sticky web. - -
- - That does NOT mean abandoning personal responsibility, for -
- we're also the weavers of that web. So, improve your contagions: -
- be skeptical of ideas that flatter you, spend time understanding -
- complex ideas. And, improve your connections: bond with similar -
- folk, but also build bridges across cultural/political divides. - -
- - We can weave a wise web. Sure, it's harder than doodling -
- lines on a screen... - - ...but so, so worth it. - - - - - - - “The great triumphs and tragedies of history are caused, - not by people being fundamentally good or fundamentally bad, - but by people being fundamentally people.” - -
- ~ Neil Gaiman & Terry Pratchett -
- <3 - - - - - - -
- - - created by -
- NICKY CASE
- - play my other shtuff · - - follow my tweeter - -

- - - lots of love and thanks to -
- MY PATREON SUPPORTERS
- - see names & drawings of supporters · - - see playtesters -
- - help me make more like this! <3 - -

- - - ♫ music is - - "Friends 2018" and "Friends 2068" - by Komiku -
- </> Crowds is - - fully open source - - -
- - - -
- - - - - - WIN - - - start simulation - - - reset & re-draw - - - Fan-made translations: - - - - - What the, no fan-made translations exist yet?! - - - (add your own!) - - - - - - - - - - -

- A quick response to James Surowiecki's The Wisdom of Crowds -

- -
- - - - First off, I'm not dissing - - this book. - It's a good book, and Surowiecki was trying to tackle the same question I am: - “why do some crowds turn to madness, or wisdom?” - -

- - Surowiecki's answer: crowds make good decisions when everybody is as independent as possible. - He gives the story of a county fair, - where the townsfolk were invited to guess the weight of an ox. - Surprisingly, the average of all their guesses was better than any one guess. - But, here's the rub: the people have to guess independently of each other. - Otherwise, - they'd be influenced by earlier incorrect guesses, - and the average answer would be highly skewed. - -

- - But... I don't think "make everyone as independent as possible" is the full answer. - Even geniuses, who we mischaracterize as the most independent thinkers, - are deeply influenced by others. As Sir Isaac Newton said, - “If I have seen further, it is by standing on the sholders of Giants.” - -

- - So, which idea is correct? - Does wisdom come from thinking for yourself, or thinking with others? - The answer is: "yes". - -

- - So that's what I'll try to explain in this explorable explanation: - how to get that sweet spot between independence and interdependence — - that is, how to get a wise crowd. - -
- - - - -

- What other kinds of connections are there? -

- -
- - For the sake of simplicity, - my simulations pretend that people can only be connected through friendships, - and that all friendships are equal. - But network scientists do consider other ways we can be connected, such as: - -
-
- - - Directional connections. Alice is the boss of Bob, but Bob is not the boss of Alice. - Carol is the parent of Dave, but Dave is not the parent of Carol. - "Boss" & "parent" are directional relationships: - the relationship only goes one way. - In contrast, "friends" is a bidirectional relationship: - the relationship goes both ways. (well, hopefully) - -
-
- - - Weighted connections. Elinor and Frankie are mere acquaintances. - George and Harry are Best Friends Forever. - Even though there's a "friendship" connection in both cases, the second one is stronger. - We say that these two connections have different "weights". - -
-
- - - Just remember: all these simulations are wrong. The same way any map is "wrong". - You see the map on the left? Buildings aren't gray featureless blocks! - Words don't float above the city! However, maps are useful not despite being simplified, - but because they're simplified. Same goes for simulations, or any scientific theory. - Of course they're "wrong" — that's what makes them useful. - -
- - - - -

- What other kinds of contagions are there? -

- -
- - There are so, so many ways that network scientists can simulate "contagions"! - I picked the simplest one, for educational purposes. - But here's other ways you could do it: - -
-
- - - Contagions with Randomness. - Being "exposed" to a contagion doesn't guarantee you'll be infected, - it only makes it more likely. - -
-
- - - People have different contagion thresholds. - My simulations pretend that everyone has the same threshold for binge-drinking (50%) or - volunteering (25%) or misinformation (0%). - Of course, that's not true in real life, and you could make your sim reflect that. - -
-
- - - An ecology of contagions. - What if there were multiple contagions, with different thresholds? - For example, a simple "madness" contagion and a complex "wisdom" contagion. - If someone's infected with madness, can they still be infected with wisdom? - Or vice versa? - Can someone be infected with both? - -
-
- - - Contagions that mutate and evolve. - Ideas don't pass perfectly from one person to another the way a virus does. - Like a game of Telephone, the message gets mutated with each re-telling — - and sometimes the mutant will be more infectious than the original! - So, over time, ideas "evolve" to be more catchy, copy-able, contagious. - -
- -
- - - - -

- I wanna learn more! What else can I read and/or play? -

- -
- - This explorable explanation was just a springboard for your curiosity, - so you can dive deeper into a vast pool of knowledge! - Here's more stuff on networks or social systems: - -

- - - Book: - - Connected - by Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler (2009). - An accessible tour of how our networks affect our lives, for good or ill. - - Here's an excerpt: Preface & Chapter 1 - - -
-
- - - Interactive: - - The Evolution of Trust by Nicky Case (me) (2017). - A game about the game theory of how cooperation is built... or destroyed. - -
-
- - - Interactive: - - Parable of the Polygons by Vi Hart and Nicky Case (also me) (2014). - A story about how harmless choices can create a harmful world. - -
-
- - - Or, if you just want to see a whole gallery of interactive edu-things, here's - - Explorable Explanations, - a hub for learning through play! - -
- -
- - - - - - - - - - - -

- “virtually all [college] students reported that their friends drank more than they did.” -

- - - - - - -

- “The Majority Illusion” -

- - - - - -

- “strong statistical evidence that - smoking, health, happiness, voting patterns, and cooperation levels - are all contagious” -

- -
- - From Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler's - wonderfully-written, layperson-accessible book, - - Connected (2009). - -
- - - -

- “some evidence that suicides are [contagious], too” -

- -
- - “Suicide Contagion and the Reporting of Suicide: Recommendations from a National Workshop” - by O'Carroll et al (1994), endorsed by the frickin' Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC). -
- - - - -

- “some evidence that mass shootings are [contagious], too” -

- -
- - - “Contagion in Mass Killings and School Shootings” by Towers et al (2015). - -

- - Also see: the - - Don't Name Them campaign, - which urges that news outlets DO NOT air mass murderers' names, manifestos, and social media feeds. - This spreads the contagion. - Instead, news outlets should focus on the victims, first responders, civilian heroes, - and the grieving, healing community. - -
- - - - -

- “The world's financial institutions fell for such a cascade in 2008.” -

- -
- - “Lemmings of Wall Street” by Cass Sunstein, is a quick, non-technical read. - Published in Oct 2008, right in the wake of the crash. -
- - - - -

- “the complex contagion theory.” -

- -
- - - “Threshold Models of Collective Behavior” by Granovetter (1978) - was the first time, as far as I know, anyone described a "complex contagion" model. - (although he didn't use that specific name) - -

- - - “Evidence for complex contagion models of social contagion from observational data” - by Sprague & House (2017) - shows that complex contagions do, in fact, exist. (at least, in the social media data they looked at) - -

- - Finally, - - “Universal behavior in a generalized model of contagion” by Dodds & Watts (2004) - proposes a model that unifies all kinds of contagions: - simple and complex, biological and social! - -
- - - -

- “the possum has 13 nipples” -

-
- arranged in a ring of 12 nipples, plus one in the middle -
- - - -

- “groupthink” -

- -
- This Orwell-inspired phrase was coined by Irving L. Janis in 1971. - - In his original article, - Janis investigates cases of groupthink, lists its causes, and — thankfully — - some possible remedies. -
- - - - -

- “bonding and bridging social capital” -

- -
- These two types of social capital — "bonding" and "bridging" — - were named by Robert Putnam in his insightful 2000 book, - - Bowling Alone. His discovery: - across almost all empircal measures of social connectiveness, - Americans are more alone than ever. - Golly. -
- - - - -

- “bridging social capital has a sweet spot” -

- -
- - “The Strength of Weak Ties” by Granovetter (1973) - showed that connections across groups helps spread simple contagions (like information), - but - - “Complex Contagions and the Weakness of Long Ties” by Centola & Macy (2007) - showed that connections across groups may not help complex contagions, - and it fact, can hurt their spread! -
- - - - -

- “the small world network” -

- -
- - The idea of the "small world" was popularized by - Travers & Milgram's 1969 experiment, - which showed that, on average, any two random people in the United States - were just six friendships apart — "six degrees of separation"! - -

- - The small-world network got more mathematical meat on its bones with - - “Collective dynamics of small-world networks” by Watts & Strogatz (1998), - which proposed an algorithm for creating networks - with both low average path length (low degree of separation) - and high clustering (friends have lots of mutual friends) — - that is, a network that hits the sweet spot! - -

- - You can also play with - - the visual, interactive adaptation of that paper by Bret Victor (2011). - -
- - - - -

- “[small world networks] describe how our neurons are connected” -

- -
- - “Small-world brain networks” by Bassett & Bullmore (2006). -
- - - - -

- “[small world networks] give rise to collective creativity” -

- -
- - - “Collaboration and Creativity: The Small World Problem” by Uzzi & Spiro (2005). - This paper analyzed the social network of the Broadway scene over time, - and discovered that, yup, the network's most creative when it's a "small world" network! - -
- - - - -

- “[small world networks] give rise to collective problem-solving” -

- -
- See - - “Social Physics” by MIT Professor Alex "Sandy" Pentland (2014) - for a data-based approach to collective intelligence. -
- - - - -

- “[small world networks] helped John F. Kennedy (barely) avoid nuclear war!” -

- -
- - Besides the NASA Challenger explosion, the most notorious example of groupthink - was the Bay of Pigs fiasco. - In 1961, US President John F. Kennedy and his team of advisors thought - — for some reason — - it would be a good idea to secretly invade Cuba and overthrow Fidel Castro. - They failed. - Actually, worse than failed: it led to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, - the closest the world had ever been to full-scale nuclear war. - -

- - Yup, JFK really screwed up on that one. - -

- - But, having learnt some hard lessons from the Bay of Pigs fiasco, - JFK re-organized his team to avoid groupthink. - Among many things, he: - 1) actively encouraged people to voice criticism, - thus lowering the "contagion threshold" for alternate ideas. - And - 2) he broke his team up into sub-groups before reconvening, - which gave their group a "small world network"-like design! - Together, this arrangement allowed for a healthy diversity of opinion, - but without being too fractured — a wisdom of crowds. - -

- - And so, with the same individuals who decided the Bay of Pigs, - but re-arranged collectively to decide on the Cuban Missile Crisis... - JFK's team was able to reach a peaceful agreement with Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev. - The Soviets would remove their missiles from Cuba, and in return, - the US would promise not to invade Cuba again. - (and also agreed, in secret, to remove the US missiles from Turkey) - -

- - And that's the story of how all of humanity almost died. - But a small world network saved the day! Sort of. - -

- - You can read more about this - - on Harvard Business Review, - or from - - the original article on groupthink. - -
- - - - -

- “we influence [...] our friends' friends' friends!” -

- -
- Again, from Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler's - wonderful book, - - Connected (2009). -
- - - -

- “be skeptical of ideas that flatter you” -

-
- yes, including the ideas in this explorable explanation. -
- - - -

- ★ Sandbox Mode ★ -

- -
- The keyboard shortcuts (1, 2, space, backspace) - work in all the puzzles, not just Sandbox Mode! - Seriously, you can go back to a different chapter, - and edit the simulation right there. - In fact, that's how I created all these puzzles. Have fun! -
- - - - - - - - diff --git a/index.html b/index.html index a0cee82..cfaef70 100644 --- a/index.html +++ b/index.html @@ -39,27 +39,27 @@ - The Wisdom and/or Madness of Crowds - + Die Weisheit und/oder der Wahnsinn der Massen + - - + + - - + + - - + + @@ -87,7 +87,7 @@ - +