diff --git a/CHANGELOG.md b/CHANGELOG.md index e9b8f8945..63a1c694a 100644 --- a/CHANGELOG.md +++ b/CHANGELOG.md @@ -30,6 +30,8 @@ The format is based on [Keep a Changelog](https://keepachangelog.com/en/1.0.0/). [#2249](https://github.com/remindmodel/remind/pull/2249) - **45_carbonprice** update NDC realization to run 2030+2035 NDC emissions targets by default and clean up and extend on switches for NDC variants [[#2289](https://github.com/remindmodel/remind/pull/2289)] +- **core** Adapt maximum early retirement rates and differentiate between NPi and policy runs + [[#2300](https://github.com/remindmodel/remind/pull/2300)] ### removed - **21_tax** remove input files with upper bounds on subsidies for final energy, as it is directly applied as part of input data generation diff --git a/config/scenario_config.csv b/config/scenario_config.csv index 29fba0f4b..a2ce4adf7 100755 --- a/config/scenario_config.csv +++ b/config/scenario_config.csv @@ -1,51 +1,51 @@ -title;start;CES_parameters;slurmConfig;regionmapping;extramappings_historic;cm_rcp_scen;subsidizeLearning;cm_prtpScen;capitalMarket;cm_iterative_target_adj;cm_budgetCO2from2020;cm_budgetCO2_absDevTol;carbonprice;cm_taxCO2_functionalForm;cm_taxCO2_startyear;cm_peakBudgYr;cm_taxCO2_regiDiff;cm_emiscen;c_regi_earlyreti_rate;c_tech_earlyreti_rate;cm_fetaxscen;cm_bioenergy_SustTax;cm_33EW;cm_33OAE;cm_33_OAE_limit_EEZ;cm_frac_NetNegEmi;c_ccsinjecratescen;c_ccscapratescen;cm_CESMkup_build;cm_wasteIncinerationCCSshare;techpol;regipol;cm_implicitQttyTarget;cm_NucRegiPol;cm_CoalRegiPol;cm_altFeEmiFac;cm_GDPpopScen;cm_demScen;cm_oil_scen;cm_gas_scen;cm_coal_scen;c_techAssumptScen;cm_nucscen;cm_so2tax_scen;cm_multigasscen;cm_LU_emi_scen;cm_tradecostBio;cm_maxProdBiolc;cm_1stgen_phaseout;c_SSP_forcing_adjust;cm_APssp;cm_CESMkup_ind;cm_EDGEtr_scen;c_changeProdCost;cm_startyear;path_gdx;path_gdx_ref;path_gdx_bau;path_gdx_refpolicycost;description -# H12 SSP2;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; -SSP2-NPi2025-calibrate;calibrate,AMT,compileInTests,calibrateSSP2;calibrate;14;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;2005;;;;;SSP2-NPi2025-calibrate: This reference policy/baseline scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. -SSP2-NDC;1,AMT,2;;;;;;globallyOptimal;;;3;;;NDC;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-NDC: This Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. It assumes NPi2025 until 2025 and has start year 2030. The NDC includes all pledged policies even if not yet implemented. It assumes that the moderate and heterogeneous climate ambition reflected in the NDCs at the begining of 2021 continues over the 21st century. -SSP2-NPi;1,AMT,2;;;;;;;;;0;;;NPi;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;NPi2018;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix1;;2005;;;;;SSP2-NPi: This National Policies Implemented (NPi) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The NPi assumes that policies fail to achieve NDC targets in 2030. Instead, carbon prices are assumed to grow and converge more slowly, leading to emissions trajectories in line with bottom-up studies on the effect of currently implemented policies. -SSP2-NPi2025;1,AMT,compileInTests,2;;;;;;;;;0;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;2005;;;;;SSP2-NPi2025: This National Policies Implemented (NPi) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The NPi assumes that policies fail to achieve NDC targets in 2030. Instead, carbon prices are assumed to grow and converge more slowly, leading to emissions trajectories in line with bottom-up studies on the effect of currently implemented policies. -SSP2-PkBudg650;1,AMT,2;;;;;rcp20;globallyOptimal;;;9;650;;functionalForm;;100;2055;6;;;;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.9;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;;;;;;;;;2;;;;;;;Elec_Push;Mix4ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-PkBudg650: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 650 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a 1.5C scenario, peak warming is allowed to be at or slightly above 1.5C at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 1.5C in at least 67 % of scenarios by the end of the century. -SSP2-PkBudg750;1,AMT,2;;;;;rcp20;globallyOptimal;;;9;750;;functionalForm;;100;2055;6;;;;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.9;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;;;;;;;;;2;;;;;;;Elec_Push;Mix4ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-PkBudg750: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 750 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a 1.5C scenario, peak warming is allowed to be at or slightly above 1.5C at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 1.5C in at least 67 % of scenarios by the end of the century. -SSP2-PkBudg1000;1,AMT,2;;;;;rcp26;globallyOptimal;;;9;1000;;functionalForm;;75;2080;7;;;;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.5;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;;;;;;;;;2;;;;;;;;Mix3ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-PkBudg1050: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 1150 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a well below 2C scenario at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 2C in at least 67 % of scenarios during the whole century. -SSP2-EcBudg500;1,AMT,2;;;;;rcp26;globallyOptimal;;;5;500;5;functionalForm;exponential;70;;7;;;;;;1;1;5000;0;;;;2060.GLO 0.9;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;2;;;200;;;;;Mix3ICEban;1;2035;;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-EcBudg400: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes an end-of-century budget of 400 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2020 to 2100. This is a high overshoot scenario with delayed climate policy. -SSP2-rollBack;1,AMT,2;;;;;;;;;0;;;none;;;;;0;;;1;;;;;;;;;;none;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix1;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-rollBack: This rollback of climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 called Middle of the Road. -# EU21 SSP2;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; -SSP2-EU21-NPi2025-calibrate;calibrate,calibrateSSP2;calibrate;14;./config/regionmapping_21_EU11.csv;./config/extramapping_EU27.csv;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;2005;;;;;SSP2-EU21-calibration: This baseline scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. -SSP2-EU21-NPi2025;1,AMT,2;;;./config/regionmapping_21_EU11.csv;./config/extramapping_EU27.csv;;;;;0;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;2005;;;;;SSP2-EU21-NPi2025: This National Policies Implemented (NPi) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The NPi assumes that policies fail to achieve NDC targets in 2030. Instead, carbon prices are assumed to grow and converge more slowly, leading to emissions trajectories in line with bottom-up studies on the effect of currently implemented policies. -SSP2-EU21-PkBudg650;1,AMT,2;;;./config/regionmapping_21_EU11.csv;./config/extramapping_EU27.csv;rcp20;globallyOptimal;;;9;650;;functionalForm;;100;2055;6;;;;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.9;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;;;;;;;;;2;;;;;;;Elec_Push;Mix4ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-EU21-NPi2025;;SSP2-EU21-NPi2025;SSP2-EU21-PkBudg650: This climate policy scenario follows the SSP2. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 650 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a 1.5C scenario, peak warming is allowed to be at or slightly above 1.5C at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 1.5C in at least 67 % of scenarios by the end of the century. -SSP2-EU21-PkBudg750;1,AMT,2;;;./config/regionmapping_21_EU11.csv;./config/extramapping_EU27.csv;rcp20;globallyOptimal;;;9;750;;functionalForm;;100;2055;6;;;;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.9;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;;;;;;;;;2;;;;;;;Elec_Push;Mix4ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-EU21-NPi2025;;SSP2-EU21-NPi2025;SSP2-EU21-PkBudg750: This climate policy scenario follows the SSP2. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 750 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a 1.5C scenario, peak warming is allowed to be at or slightly above 1.5C at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 1.5C in at least 67 % of scenarios by the end of the century. -SSP2-EU21-PkBudg1000;1,AMT,2;;;./config/regionmapping_21_EU11.csv;./config/extramapping_EU27.csv;rcp26;globallyOptimal;;;9;1000;;functionalForm;;75;2080;7;;;;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.5;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;;;;;;;;;2;;;;;;;;Mix3ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-EU21-NPi2025;;SSP2-EU21-NPi2025;SSP2-EU21-PkBudg1050: This climate policy scenario follows the SSP2. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 1050 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a well below 2C scenario at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 2C in at least 67 % of scenarios during the whole century. -# H12 SSP3;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; -SSP3-NPi2025-calibrate;calibrate;calibrate;14;;;;;3;;;;;;;;;;;;;1;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;SSP3;SSP3;;;highCoal;SSP3;;0;;SSP3;1.5;;;forcing_SSP3;;;;;2005;;;;;SSP3-NPi2025-calibrate: This reference policy/baseline scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 called High. -SSP3-NPi2025_impCM-calibrate;0;calibrate;14;;;;;3;imperfect;;;;;;;;;;;;1;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;SSP3;SSP3;;;highCoal;SSP3;;0;;SSP3;1.5;;;forcing_SSP3;;;Mix1;;2005;;;;;SSP3-NPi2025-calibrate: This reference policy/baseline scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 called High. -SSP3-NDC;1;;;;;;;3;;3;;;NDC;;;;;;;;1;;;;;;;;;;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;SSP3;SSP3;;;highCoal;SSP3;;0;;SSP3;1.5;;;forcing_SSP3;;;;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP3-NDC: This Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 called High. It assumes NPi2025 until 2025 and has start year 2030. The NDC includes all pledged policies even if not yet implemented. It assumes that the moderate and heterogeneous climate ambition reflected in the NDCs at the begining of 2021 continues over the 21st century. -SSP3-NPi2025;1,AMT;;;;;;;3;;0;;;;;;;;;;;1;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;SSP3;SSP3;;;highCoal;SSP3;;0;;SSP3;1.5;;;forcing_SSP3;;;;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP3-NPi2025: This National Policies Implemented (NPi) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 called High. The NPi assumes that policies fail to achieve NDC targets in 2030. Instead, carbon prices are assumed to grow and converge more slowly, leading to emissions trajectories in line with bottom-up studies on the effect of currently implemented policies. -SSP3-PkBudg1000;1;;;;;rcp26;;3;;9;1000;;functionalForm;;75;2080;8;;;;1;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.5;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;SSP3;SSP3;;;highCoal;SSP3;;0;2;SSP3;1.5;;;forcing_SSP3;;;Mix3ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP3-PkBudg1050: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 called High. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 1150 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a well below 2C scenario at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 2C in at least 67 % of scenarios during the whole century. -SSP3-rollBack;1,AMT;;;;;;;3;;0;;;none;;;;;0;;;1;;;;;;;;;;none;;;;;;SSP3;SSP3;;;highCoal;SSP3;;0;;SSP3;1.5;;;forcing_SSP3;;;Mix1;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP3-rollBack: This rollback of climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 called High. -# EU21 SSP1;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; -SSP1-EU21-NPi2025-calibrate;calibrate;calibrate;14;./config/regionmapping_21_EU11.csv;./config/extramapping_EU27.csv;;;;;;;;;;;;;;GLO 0.12, EUR_regi 0.15;;2;;;;;;5;;;;;;;;;;SSP1;SSP1;lowOil;lowGas;lowCoal;SSP1;;4;;SSP1;;90;;forcing_SSP1;;;;;2005;;;;;SSP1-calibration: This baseline calibration scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 1 called Sustainability. -SSP1-EU21-NPi2025;1,AMT;;14;./config/regionmapping_21_EU11.csv;./config/extramapping_EU27.csv;;;;;0;;;;;;;;;GLO 0.12, EUR_regi 0.15;;2;;;;;;5;;;;;;;;;;SSP1;SSP1;lowOil;lowGas;lowCoal;SSP1;;4;;SSP1;;90;;forcing_SSP1;;;;;2005;;SSP2-EU21-NPi2025;;;SSP1-EU21-NPi2025: This National Policies Implemented (NPi) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The NPi assumes that policies fail to achieve NDC targets in 2030. Instead, carbon prices are assumed to grow and converge more slowly, leading to emissions trajectories in line with bottom-up studies on the effect of currently implemented policies. -SSP1-EU21-PkBudg750;1,AMT;;14;./config/regionmapping_21_EU11.csv;./config/extramapping_EU27.csv;rcp20;globallyOptimal;;;9;750;;functionalForm;;100;2055;6;;GLO 0.12, EUR_regi 0.15;;2;;;;;;5;;;2050.GLO 0.9;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;SSP1;SSP1;lowOil;lowGas;lowCoal;SSP1;;4;;SSP1;;90;;forcing_SSP1;;Elec_Push;Mix4ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-EU21-NPi2025;;;SSP1-EU21-PkBudg750: This climate policy scenario follows the SSP1. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 750 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. -# H12 SSP1;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; -SSP1-NPi2025-calibrate;calibrate;calibrate;14;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;GLO 0.12, EUR_regi 0.15;;2;;;;;;5;;;;;;;;;;SSP1;SSP1;lowOil;lowGas;lowCoal;SSP1;;4;;SSP1;;90;;forcing_SSP1;;;;;2005;;;;;SSP1-calibration: This baseline calibration scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 1 called Sustainability. -SSP1-NDC;1,compileInTests;;;;;;globallyOptimal;;;3;;;NDC;;;;;;GLO 0.12, EUR_regi 0.15;;2;;;;;;5;;;;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;SSP1;SSP1;lowOil;lowGas;lowCoal;SSP1;;4;;SSP1;;90;;forcing_SSP1;;;;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP1-NDC: This Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 1 called Sustainability. It assumes NPi2025 until 2025 and has start year 2030. The NDC includes all pledged policies even if not yet implemented. It assumes that the moderate and heterogeneous climate ambition reflected in the NDCs at the begining of 2021 continues over the 21st century. -SSP1-NPi2025;1,AMT;;;;;;;;;0;;;;;;;;;GLO 0.12, EUR_regi 0.15;;2;;;;;;5;;;;;;;;;;SSP1;SSP1;lowOil;lowGas;lowCoal;SSP1;;4;;SSP1;;90;;forcing_SSP1;;;;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP1-NPi2025: This National Policies Implemented (NPi) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 1 called Sustainability. The NPi assumes that policies fail to achieve NDC targets in 2030. Instead, carbon prices are assumed to grow and converge more slowly, leading to emissions trajectories in line with bottom-up studies on the effect of currently implemented policies. -SSP1-PkBudg750;1,AMT;;;;;rcp20;globallyOptimal;;;9;750;;functionalForm;;100;2055;6;;GLO 0.12, EUR_regi 0.15;;2;;;;;;5;;feelhpb 1.4, fehob 0.8, feheb 0.15;2050.GLO 0.9;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;SSP1;SSP1;lowOil;lowGas;lowCoal;SSP1;;4;2;SSP1;;90;;forcing_SSP1;;Elec_Push;Mix4ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP1-PkBudg750: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 1 called Sustainability. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 750 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a 1.5C scenario, peak warming is allowed to be at or slightly above 1.5C at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 1.5C in at least 67 % of scenarios by the end of the century. -SSP1-PkBudg1000;1,AMT;;;;;rcp26;globallyOptimal;;;9;1000;;functionalForm;;75;2080;7;;GLO 0.12, EUR_regi 0.15;;2;;;;;;5;;;2050.GLO 0.5;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;SSP1;SSP1;lowOil;lowGas;lowCoal;SSP1;;4;2;SSP1;;90;;forcing_SSP1;;;Mix3ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP1-PkBudg1050: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 1 called Sustainability. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 1050 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a well below 2C scenario at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 2C in at least 67 % of scenarios during the whole century. -# H12 SSP2 lowEnergy;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; -SSP2_lowEn-NPi2025-calibrate;calibrate;calibrate;14;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;SSP2_lowEn;;;;;;;;SSP2_lowEn;;;;;;;;;2005;;;;;SSP2_lowEn-calibration: This baseline scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. This scenario also assumes low energy demand trajectories. -SSP2_lowEn-NDC;0;;;;;;globallyOptimal;;;3;;;NDC;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;;SSP2_lowEn;;;;;;;;SSP2_lowEn;;;;;;;;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP2_lowEn-NDC: This Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. It assumes NPi2025 until 2025 and has start year 2030. This scenario also assumes low energy demand trajectories. The NDC includes all pledged policies even if not yet implemented. It assumes that the moderate and heterogeneous climate ambition reflected in the NDCs at the begining of 2021 continues over the 21st century. -SSP2_lowEn-NPi2025;0;;;;;;;;;0;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;SSP2_lowEn;;;;;;;;SSP2_lowEn;;;;;;;;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2_lowEn-NPi2025: This National Policies Implemented (NPi) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. This scenario also assumes low energy demand trajectories. The NPi assumes that policies fail to achieve NDC targets in 2030. Instead, carbon prices are assumed to grow and converge more slowly, leading to emissions trajectories in line with bottom-up studies on the effect of currently implemented policies. -SSP2_lowEn-PkBudg650;0;;;;;rcp20;globallyOptimal;;;9;650;;functionalForm;;100;2055;6;;;;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.9;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;;SSP2_lowEn;;;;;;;2;SSP2_lowEn;;;;;;Elec_Push;Mix4ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2_lowEn-PkBudg650: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. This scenario also assumes low energy demand trajectories. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 650 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a 1.5C scenario, peak warming is allowed to be at or slightly above 1.5C at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 1.5C in at least 67 % of scenarios by the end of the century. -SSP2_lowEn-PkBudg1000;0;;;;;rcp26;globallyOptimal;;;9;1000;;functionalForm;;75;2080;7;;;;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.5;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;;SSP2_lowEn;;;;;;;2;SSP2_lowEn;;;;;;;Mix3ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2_lowEn-PkBudg1050: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. This scenario also assumes low energy demand trajectories. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 1050 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a well below 2C scenario at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 2C in at least 67 % of scenarios during the whole century. -# H12 SSP5;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; -SSP5-NPi2025-calibrate;calibrate;calibrate;14;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;1;1.75;;;;;3;2;;;;;;;;;SSP5;SSP5;highOil;highGas;highCoal;SSP5;6;4;;SSP5;0.5;;;forcing_SSP5;;;;;2005;;;;;SSP5-calibration: This baseline calibration scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5 called Fossil-Fueled Development. -SSP5-NDC;0;;;;;;globallyOptimal;;;3;;;NDC;;;;;;;;1;1.75;;;;;3;2;;;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;SSP5;SSP5;highOil;highGas;highCoal;SSP5;6;4;;SSP5;0.5;;;forcing_SSP5;;;;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP5-NDC: This Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5 called Fossil-Fueled Development. It assumes NPi2025 until 2025 and has start year 2030. The NDC includes all pledged policies even if not yet implemented. It assumes that the moderate and heterogeneous climate ambition reflected in the NDCs at the begining of 2021 continues over the 21st century. -SSP5-NPi2025;0;;;;;;;;;0;;;;;;;;;;;1;1.75;;;;;3;2;;;;;;;;;SSP5;SSP5;highOil;highGas;highCoal;SSP5;6;4;;SSP5;0.5;;;forcing_SSP5;;;;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP5-NPi2025: This National Policies Implemented (NPi) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5 called Fossil-Fueled Development. The NPi assumes that policies fail to achieve NDC targets in 2030. Instead, carbon prices are assumed to grow and converge more slowly, leading to emissions trajectories in line with bottom-up studies on the effect of currently implemented policies. -SSP5-PkBudg650;0;;;;;rcp20;globallyOptimal;;;9;650;;functionalForm;;100;2055;6;;;;1;1.75;;;;;3;2;;2050.GLO 0.9;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;SSP5;SSP5;highOil;highGas;highCoal;SSP5;6;4;2;SSP5;0.5;;;forcing_SSP5;;Elec_Push;Mix4ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP5-PkBudg650: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5 called Fossil-Fueled Development. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 650 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a 1.5C scenario, peak warming is allowed to be at or slightly above 1.5C at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 1.5C in at least 67 % of scenarios by the end of the century. -SSP5-PkBudg1000;compileInTests;;;;;rcp26;globallyOptimal;;;9;1000;;functionalForm;;75;2080;7;;;;1;1.75;;;;;3;2;;2050.GLO 0.5;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;SSP5;SSP5;highOil;highGas;highCoal;SSP5;6;4;2;SSP5;0.5;;;forcing_SSP5;;;Mix3ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP5-PkBudg1050: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5 called Fossil-Fueled Development. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 1050 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a well below 2C scenario at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 2C in at least 67 % of scenarios during the whole century. -# H12 SSP2IndiaHigh;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; -SSP2IndiaHigh-NPi2025-calibrate;calibrate;calibrate;14;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;SSP2IndiaHigh;SSP2IndiaHigh;;;;;;;;;;;;;SSP2;;;;2005;;;;;SSP2IndiaHigh-NPi2025-calibrate: This reference policy/baseline scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. -SSP2IndiaHigh-NPi2025;0;;;;;;;;;0;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;SSP2IndiaHigh;SSP2IndiaHigh;;;;;;;;;;;;;SSP2;;;;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2IndiaHigh-NPi2025: This National Policies Implemented (NPi) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The NPi assumes that policies fail to achieve NDC targets in 2030. Instead, carbon prices are assumed to grow and converge more slowly, leading to emissions trajectories in line with bottom-up studies on the effect of currently implemented policies. -SSP2IndiaHigh-PkBudg650;0;;;;;rcp20;globallyOptimal;;;9;650;;functionalForm;;100;2055;6;;;;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.9;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;SSP2IndiaHigh;SSP2IndiaHigh;;;;;;;2;;;;;;SSP2;Elec_Push;Mix4ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2IndiaHigh-PkBudg650: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 650 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a 1.5C scenario, peak warming is allowed to be at or slightly above 1.5C at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 1.5C in at least 67 % of scenarios by the end of the century. -SSP2IndiaHigh-PkBudg1000;0;;;;;rcp26;globallyOptimal;;;9;1000;;functionalForm;;75;2080;7;;;;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.5;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;SSP2IndiaHigh;SSP2IndiaHigh;;;;;;;2;;;;;;SSP2;;Mix3ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2IndiaHigh-PkBudg1050: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 1150 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a well below 2C scenario at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 2C in at least 67 % of scenarios during the whole century. +title;start;CES_parameters;slurmConfig;regionmapping;extramappings_historic;cm_rcp_scen;subsidizeLearning;cm_prtpScen;capitalMarket;cm_iterative_target_adj;cm_budgetCO2from2020;cm_budgetCO2_absDevTol;carbonprice;cm_taxCO2_functionalForm;cm_taxCO2_startyear;cm_peakBudgYr;cm_taxCO2_regiDiff;cm_emiscen;c_regi_earlyreti_rate;cm_fetaxscen;cm_bioenergy_SustTax;cm_33EW;cm_33OAE;cm_33_OAE_limit_EEZ;cm_frac_NetNegEmi;c_ccsinjecratescen;c_ccscapratescen;cm_CESMkup_build;cm_wasteIncinerationCCSshare;techpol;regipol;cm_implicitQttyTarget;cm_NucRegiPol;cm_CoalRegiPol;cm_altFeEmiFac;cm_GDPpopScen;cm_demScen;cm_oil_scen;cm_gas_scen;cm_coal_scen;c_techAssumptScen;cm_nucscen;cm_so2tax_scen;cm_multigasscen;cm_LU_emi_scen;cm_tradecostBio;cm_maxProdBiolc;cm_1stgen_phaseout;c_SSP_forcing_adjust;cm_APssp;cm_CESMkup_ind;cm_EDGEtr_scen;c_changeProdCost;cm_startyear;path_gdx;path_gdx_ref;path_gdx_bau;path_gdx_refpolicycost;description +# H12 SSP2;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; +SSP2-NPi2025-calibrate;calibrate,AMT,compileInTests,calibrateSSP2;calibrate;14;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;2005;;;;;SSP2-NPi2025-calibrate: This reference policy/baseline scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. +SSP2-NDC;1,AMT,2;;;;;;globallyOptimal;;;3;;;NDC;;;;;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;;;;;;;;;;;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-NDC: This Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. It assumes NPi2025 until 2025 and has start year 2030. The NDC includes all pledged policies even if not yet implemented. It assumes that the moderate and heterogeneous climate ambition reflected in the NDCs at the begining of 2021 continues over the 21st century. +SSP2-NPi;1,AMT,2;;;;;;;;;0;;;NPi;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;NPi2018;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix1;;2005;;;;;SSP2-NPi: This National Policies Implemented (NPi) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The NPi assumes that policies fail to achieve NDC targets in 2030. Instead, carbon prices are assumed to grow and converge more slowly, leading to emissions trajectories in line with bottom-up studies on the effect of currently implemented policies. +SSP2-NPi2025;1,AMT,compileInTests,2;;;;;;;;;0;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;2005;;;;;SSP2-NPi2025: This National Policies Implemented (NPi) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The NPi assumes that policies fail to achieve NDC targets in 2030. Instead, carbon prices are assumed to grow and converge more slowly, leading to emissions trajectories in line with bottom-up studies on the effect of currently implemented policies. +SSP2-PkBudg650;1,AMT,2;;;;;rcp20;globallyOptimal;;;9;650;;functionalForm;;100;2055;6;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.9;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;;;;;;;;;2;;;;;;;Elec_Push;Mix4ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-PkBudg650: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 650 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a 1.5C scenario, peak warming is allowed to be at or slightly above 1.5C at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 1.5C in at least 67 % of scenarios by the end of the century. +SSP2-PkBudg750;1,AMT,2;;;;;rcp20;globallyOptimal;;;9;750;;functionalForm;;100;2055;6;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.9;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;;;;;;;;;2;;;;;;;Elec_Push;Mix4ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-PkBudg750: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 750 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a 1.5C scenario, peak warming is allowed to be at or slightly above 1.5C at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 1.5C in at least 67 % of scenarios by the end of the century. +SSP2-PkBudg1000;1,AMT,2;;;;;rcp26;globallyOptimal;;;9;1000;;functionalForm;;75;2080;7;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.5;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;;;;;;;;;2;;;;;;;;Mix3ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-PkBudg1050: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 1150 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a well below 2C scenario at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 2C in at least 67 % of scenarios during the whole century. +SSP2-EcBudg500;1,AMT,2;;;;;rcp26;globallyOptimal;;;5;500;5;functionalForm;exponential;70;;7;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;;;1;1;5000;0;;;;2060.GLO 0.9;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;2;;;200;;;;;Mix3ICEban;1;2035;;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-EcBudg400: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes an end-of-century budget of 400 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2020 to 2100. This is a high overshoot scenario with delayed climate policy. +SSP2-rollBack;1,AMT,2;;;;;;;;;0;;;none;;;;;0;;1;;;;;;;;;;none;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix1;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-rollBack: This rollback of climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 called Middle of the Road. +# EU21 SSP2;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; +SSP2-EU21-NPi2025-calibrate;calibrate,calibrateSSP2;calibrate;14;./config/regionmapping_21_EU11.csv;./config/extramapping_EU27.csv;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;2005;;;;;SSP2-EU21-calibration: This baseline scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. +SSP2-EU21-NPi2025;1,AMT,2;;;./config/regionmapping_21_EU11.csv;./config/extramapping_EU27.csv;;;;;0;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;2005;;;;;SSP2-EU21-NPi2025: This National Policies Implemented (NPi) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The NPi assumes that policies fail to achieve NDC targets in 2030. Instead, carbon prices are assumed to grow and converge more slowly, leading to emissions trajectories in line with bottom-up studies on the effect of currently implemented policies. +SSP2-EU21-PkBudg650;1,AMT,2;;;./config/regionmapping_21_EU11.csv;./config/extramapping_EU27.csv;rcp20;globallyOptimal;;;9;650;;functionalForm;;100;2055;6;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.9;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;;;;;;;;;2;;;;;;;Elec_Push;Mix4ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-EU21-NPi2025;;SSP2-EU21-NPi2025;SSP2-EU21-PkBudg650: This climate policy scenario follows the SSP2. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 650 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a 1.5C scenario, peak warming is allowed to be at or slightly above 1.5C at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 1.5C in at least 67 % of scenarios by the end of the century. +SSP2-EU21-PkBudg750;1,AMT,2;;;./config/regionmapping_21_EU11.csv;./config/extramapping_EU27.csv;rcp20;globallyOptimal;;;9;750;;functionalForm;;100;2055;6;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.9;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;;;;;;;;;2;;;;;;;Elec_Push;Mix4ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-EU21-NPi2025;;SSP2-EU21-NPi2025;SSP2-EU21-PkBudg750: This climate policy scenario follows the SSP2. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 750 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a 1.5C scenario, peak warming is allowed to be at or slightly above 1.5C at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 1.5C in at least 67 % of scenarios by the end of the century. +SSP2-EU21-PkBudg1000;1,AMT,2;;;./config/regionmapping_21_EU11.csv;./config/extramapping_EU27.csv;rcp26;globallyOptimal;;;9;1000;;functionalForm;;75;2080;7;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.5;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;;;;;;;;;2;;;;;;;;Mix3ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-EU21-NPi2025;;SSP2-EU21-NPi2025;SSP2-EU21-PkBudg1050: This climate policy scenario follows the SSP2. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 1050 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a well below 2C scenario at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 2C in at least 67 % of scenarios during the whole century. +# H12 SSP3;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; +SSP3-NPi2025-calibrate;calibrate;calibrate;14;;;;;3;;;;;;;;;;;;1;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;SSP3;SSP3;;;highCoal;SSP3;;0;;SSP3;1.5;;;forcing_SSP3;;;;;2005;;;;;SSP3-NPi2025-calibrate: This reference policy/baseline scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 called High. +SSP3-NPi2025_impCM-calibrate;0;calibrate;14;;;;;3;imperfect;;;;;;;;;;;1;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;SSP3;SSP3;;;highCoal;SSP3;;0;;SSP3;1.5;;;forcing_SSP3;;;Mix1;;2005;;;;;SSP3-NPi2025-calibrate: This reference policy/baseline scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 called High. +SSP3-NDC;1;;;;;;;3;;3;;;NDC;;;;;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;1;;;;;;;;;;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;SSP3;SSP3;;;highCoal;SSP3;;0;;SSP3;1.5;;;forcing_SSP3;;;;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP3-NDC: This Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 called High. It assumes NPi2025 until 2025 and has start year 2030. The NDC includes all pledged policies even if not yet implemented. It assumes that the moderate and heterogeneous climate ambition reflected in the NDCs at the begining of 2021 continues over the 21st century. +SSP3-NPi2025;1,AMT;;;;;;;3;;0;;;;;;;;;;1;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;SSP3;SSP3;;;highCoal;SSP3;;0;;SSP3;1.5;;;forcing_SSP3;;;;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP3-NPi2025: This National Policies Implemented (NPi) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 called High. The NPi assumes that policies fail to achieve NDC targets in 2030. Instead, carbon prices are assumed to grow and converge more slowly, leading to emissions trajectories in line with bottom-up studies on the effect of currently implemented policies. +SSP3-PkBudg1000;1;;;;;rcp26;;3;;9;1000;;functionalForm;;75;2080;8;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;1;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.5;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;SSP3;SSP3;;;highCoal;SSP3;;0;2;SSP3;1.5;;;forcing_SSP3;;;Mix3ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP3-PkBudg1050: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 called High. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 1150 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a well below 2C scenario at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 2C in at least 67 % of scenarios during the whole century. +SSP3-rollBack;1,AMT;;;;;;;3;;0;;;none;;;;;0;;1;;;;;;;;;;none;;;;;;SSP3;SSP3;;;highCoal;SSP3;;0;;SSP3;1.5;;;forcing_SSP3;;;Mix1;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP3-rollBack: This rollback of climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 called High. +# EU21 SSP1;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; +SSP1-EU21-NPi2025-calibrate;calibrate;calibrate;14;./config/regionmapping_21_EU11.csv;./config/extramapping_EU27.csv;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;2;;;;;;5;;;;;;;;;;SSP1;SSP1;lowOil;lowGas;lowCoal;SSP1;;4;;SSP1;;90;;forcing_SSP1;;;;;2005;;;;;SSP1-calibration: This baseline calibration scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 1 called Sustainability. +SSP1-EU21-NPi2025;1,AMT;;14;./config/regionmapping_21_EU11.csv;./config/extramapping_EU27.csv;;;;;0;;;;;;;;;;2;;;;;;5;;;;;;;;;;SSP1;SSP1;lowOil;lowGas;lowCoal;SSP1;;4;;SSP1;;90;;forcing_SSP1;;;;;2005;;SSP2-EU21-NPi2025;;;SSP1-EU21-NPi2025: This National Policies Implemented (NPi) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The NPi assumes that policies fail to achieve NDC targets in 2030. Instead, carbon prices are assumed to grow and converge more slowly, leading to emissions trajectories in line with bottom-up studies on the effect of currently implemented policies. +SSP1-EU21-PkBudg750;1,AMT;;14;./config/regionmapping_21_EU11.csv;./config/extramapping_EU27.csv;rcp20;globallyOptimal;;;9;750;;functionalForm;;100;2055;6;;EUR_regi 0.12, USA_regi 0.1, CHA_regi 0.1, CAZ_regi 0.1, JPN_regi 0.1, GLO 0.08;2;;;;;;5;;;2050.GLO 0.9;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;SSP1;SSP1;lowOil;lowGas;lowCoal;SSP1;;4;;SSP1;;90;;forcing_SSP1;;Elec_Push;Mix4ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-EU21-NPi2025;;;SSP1-EU21-PkBudg750: This climate policy scenario follows the SSP1. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 750 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. +# H12 SSP1;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; +SSP1-NPi2025-calibrate;calibrate;calibrate;14;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;2;;;;;;5;;;;;;;;;;SSP1;SSP1;lowOil;lowGas;lowCoal;SSP1;;4;;SSP1;;90;;forcing_SSP1;;;;;2005;;;;;SSP1-calibration: This baseline calibration scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 1 called Sustainability. +SSP1-NDC;1,compileInTests;;;;;;globallyOptimal;;;3;;;NDC;;;;;;EUR_regi 0.12, USA_regi 0.1, CHA_regi 0.1, CAZ_regi 0.1, JPN_regi 0.1, GLO 0.08;2;;;;;;5;;;;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;SSP1;SSP1;lowOil;lowGas;lowCoal;SSP1;;4;;SSP1;;90;;forcing_SSP1;;;;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP1-NDC: This Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 1 called Sustainability. It assumes NPi2025 until 2025 and has start year 2030. The NDC includes all pledged policies even if not yet implemented. It assumes that the moderate and heterogeneous climate ambition reflected in the NDCs at the begining of 2021 continues over the 21st century. +SSP1-NPi2025;1,AMT;;;;;;;;;0;;;;;;;;;;2;;;;;;5;;;;;;;;;;SSP1;SSP1;lowOil;lowGas;lowCoal;SSP1;;4;;SSP1;;90;;forcing_SSP1;;;;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP1-NPi2025: This National Policies Implemented (NPi) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 1 called Sustainability. The NPi assumes that policies fail to achieve NDC targets in 2030. Instead, carbon prices are assumed to grow and converge more slowly, leading to emissions trajectories in line with bottom-up studies on the effect of currently implemented policies. +SSP1-PkBudg750;1,AMT;;;;;rcp20;globallyOptimal;;;9;750;;functionalForm;;100;2055;6;;EUR_regi 0.12, USA_regi 0.1, CHA_regi 0.1, CAZ_regi 0.1, JPN_regi 0.1, GLO 0.08;2;;;;;;5;;feelhpb 1.4, fehob 0.8, feheb 0.15;2050.GLO 0.9;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;SSP1;SSP1;lowOil;lowGas;lowCoal;SSP1;;4;2;SSP1;;90;;forcing_SSP1;;Elec_Push;Mix4ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP1-PkBudg750: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 1 called Sustainability. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 750 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a 1.5C scenario, peak warming is allowed to be at or slightly above 1.5C at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 1.5C in at least 67 % of scenarios by the end of the century. +SSP1-PkBudg1000;1,AMT;;;;;rcp26;globallyOptimal;;;9;1000;;functionalForm;;75;2080;7;;EUR_regi 0.12, USA_regi 0.1, CHA_regi 0.1, CAZ_regi 0.1, JPN_regi 0.1, GLO 0.08;2;;;;;;5;;;2050.GLO 0.5;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;SSP1;SSP1;lowOil;lowGas;lowCoal;SSP1;;4;2;SSP1;;90;;forcing_SSP1;;;Mix3ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP1-PkBudg1050: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 1 called Sustainability. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 1050 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a well below 2C scenario at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 2C in at least 67 % of scenarios during the whole century. +# H12 SSP2 lowEnergy;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; +SSP2_lowEn-NPi2025-calibrate;calibrate;calibrate;14;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;SSP2_lowEn;;;;;;;;SSP2_lowEn;;;;;;;;;2005;;;;;SSP2_lowEn-calibration: This baseline scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. This scenario also assumes low energy demand trajectories. +SSP2_lowEn-NDC;0;;;;;;globallyOptimal;;;3;;;NDC;;;;;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;;;;;;;;;;;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;;SSP2_lowEn;;;;;;;;SSP2_lowEn;;;;;;;;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP2_lowEn-NDC: This Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. It assumes NPi2025 until 2025 and has start year 2030. This scenario also assumes low energy demand trajectories. The NDC includes all pledged policies even if not yet implemented. It assumes that the moderate and heterogeneous climate ambition reflected in the NDCs at the begining of 2021 continues over the 21st century. +SSP2_lowEn-NPi2025;0;;;;;;;;;0;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;SSP2_lowEn;;;;;;;;SSP2_lowEn;;;;;;;;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2_lowEn-NPi2025: This National Policies Implemented (NPi) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. This scenario also assumes low energy demand trajectories. The NPi assumes that policies fail to achieve NDC targets in 2030. Instead, carbon prices are assumed to grow and converge more slowly, leading to emissions trajectories in line with bottom-up studies on the effect of currently implemented policies. +SSP2_lowEn-PkBudg650;0;;;;;rcp20;globallyOptimal;;;9;650;;functionalForm;;100;2055;6;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.9;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;;SSP2_lowEn;;;;;;;2;SSP2_lowEn;;;;;;Elec_Push;Mix4ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2_lowEn-PkBudg650: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. This scenario also assumes low energy demand trajectories. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 650 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a 1.5C scenario, peak warming is allowed to be at or slightly above 1.5C at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 1.5C in at least 67 % of scenarios by the end of the century. +SSP2_lowEn-PkBudg1000;0;;;;;rcp26;globallyOptimal;;;9;1000;;functionalForm;;75;2080;7;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.5;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;;SSP2_lowEn;;;;;;;2;SSP2_lowEn;;;;;;;Mix3ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2_lowEn-PkBudg1050: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. This scenario also assumes low energy demand trajectories. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 1050 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a well below 2C scenario at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 2C in at least 67 % of scenarios during the whole century. +# H12 SSP5;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; +SSP5-NPi2025-calibrate;calibrate;calibrate;14;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;1;1.75;;;;;3;2;;;;;;;;;SSP5;SSP5;highOil;highGas;highCoal;SSP5;6;4;;SSP5;0.5;;;forcing_SSP5;;;;;2005;;;;;SSP5-calibration: This baseline calibration scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5 called Fossil-Fueled Development. +SSP5-NDC;0;;;;;;globallyOptimal;;;3;;;NDC;;;;;;;1;1.75;;;;;3;2;;;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;SSP5;SSP5;highOil;highGas;highCoal;SSP5;6;4;;SSP5;0.5;;;forcing_SSP5;;;;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP5-NDC: This Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5 called Fossil-Fueled Development. It assumes NPi2025 until 2025 and has start year 2030. The NDC includes all pledged policies even if not yet implemented. It assumes that the moderate and heterogeneous climate ambition reflected in the NDCs at the begining of 2021 continues over the 21st century. +SSP5-NPi2025;0;;;;;;;;;0;;;;;;;;;;1;1.75;;;;;3;2;;;;;;;;;SSP5;SSP5;highOil;highGas;highCoal;SSP5;6;4;;SSP5;0.5;;;forcing_SSP5;;;;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP5-NPi2025: This National Policies Implemented (NPi) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5 called Fossil-Fueled Development. The NPi assumes that policies fail to achieve NDC targets in 2030. Instead, carbon prices are assumed to grow and converge more slowly, leading to emissions trajectories in line with bottom-up studies on the effect of currently implemented policies. +SSP5-PkBudg650;0;;;;;rcp20;globallyOptimal;;;9;650;;functionalForm;;100;2055;6;;;1;1.75;;;;;3;2;;2050.GLO 0.9;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;SSP5;SSP5;highOil;highGas;highCoal;SSP5;6;4;2;SSP5;0.5;;;forcing_SSP5;;Elec_Push;Mix4ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP5-PkBudg650: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5 called Fossil-Fueled Development. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 650 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a 1.5C scenario, peak warming is allowed to be at or slightly above 1.5C at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 1.5C in at least 67 % of scenarios by the end of the century. +SSP5-PkBudg1000;compileInTests;;;;;rcp26;globallyOptimal;;;9;1000;;functionalForm;;75;2080;7;;;1;1.75;;;;;3;2;;2050.GLO 0.5;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;SSP5;SSP5;highOil;highGas;highCoal;SSP5;6;4;2;SSP5;0.5;;;forcing_SSP5;;;Mix3ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP5-PkBudg1050: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5 called Fossil-Fueled Development. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 1050 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a well below 2C scenario at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 2C in at least 67 % of scenarios during the whole century. +# H12 SSP2IndiaHigh;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; +SSP2IndiaHigh-NPi2025-calibrate;calibrate;calibrate;14;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;SSP2IndiaHigh;SSP2IndiaHigh;;;;;;;;;;;;;SSP2;;;;2005;;;;;SSP2IndiaHigh-NPi2025-calibrate: This reference policy/baseline scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. +SSP2IndiaHigh-NPi2025;0;;;;;;;;;0;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;SSP2IndiaHigh;SSP2IndiaHigh;;;;;;;;;;;;;SSP2;;;;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2IndiaHigh-NPi2025: This National Policies Implemented (NPi) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The NPi assumes that policies fail to achieve NDC targets in 2030. Instead, carbon prices are assumed to grow and converge more slowly, leading to emissions trajectories in line with bottom-up studies on the effect of currently implemented policies. +SSP2IndiaHigh-PkBudg650;0;;;;;rcp20;globallyOptimal;;;9;650;;functionalForm;;100;2055;6;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.9;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;SSP2IndiaHigh;SSP2IndiaHigh;;;;;;;2;;;;;;SSP2;Elec_Push;Mix4ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2IndiaHigh-PkBudg650: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 650 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a 1.5C scenario, peak warming is allowed to be at or slightly above 1.5C at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 1.5C in at least 67 % of scenarios by the end of the century. +SSP2IndiaHigh-PkBudg1000;0;;;;;rcp26;globallyOptimal;;;9;1000;;functionalForm;;75;2080;7;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.5;NDC;;2030.EUR_regi.tax.t.FE_wo_b_wo_n_e.all 1.2809;;;;SSP2IndiaHigh;SSP2IndiaHigh;;;;;;;2;;;;;;SSP2;;Mix3ICEban;1;2030;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2IndiaHigh-PkBudg1050: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 1150 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a well below 2C scenario at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 2C in at least 67 % of scenarios during the whole century. diff --git a/core/bounds.gms b/core/bounds.gms index 1b5bb628d..ba75e3948 100755 --- a/core/bounds.gms +++ b/core/bounds.gms @@ -184,9 +184,12 @@ if(cm_startyear <= 2015, / 7.5; !! this parameter is currently only for display and not further used to fix anything p_deltaCapFromRWfix("2010",regi,"tnrs") = ( p_CapFixFromRWfix("2015",regi,"tnrs") - pm_aux_capLowerLimit("tnrs",regi,"2015") ) / 7.5; !! this parameter is currently only for display and not further used to fix anything - vm_cap.fx("2015",regi,"tnrs","1") = p_CapFixFromRWfix("2015",regi,"tnrs"); +*** keep nuclear power capacity in +-10% range of historic data for 2015, choose range to allow for some flexibility for the model + vm_cap.lo("2015",regi,"tnrs","1") = 0.9 * p_CapFixFromRWfix("2015",regi,"tnrs"); + vm_cap.up("2015",regi,"tnrs","1") = 1.1 * p_CapFixFromRWfix("2015",regi,"tnrs"); ); + if(cm_startyear <= 2020, !! require the realization of at least 70% of the plants that are currently under construction and thus might be finished until 2020 - should be updated with real-world 2020 numbers vm_deltaCap.lo("2020",regi,"tnrs","1") = 0.70 * pm_NuclearConstraint("2020",regi,"tnrs") / 5; vm_deltaCap.up("2020",regi,"tnrs","1") = pm_NuclearConstraint("2020",regi,"tnrs") / 5; @@ -378,6 +381,36 @@ v_co2capturevalve.up(t,regi) = 1 * s_MtCO2_2_GtC; *' #### 5. Early retirement and phase-out of technologies *** ================================================================== + + +*' Early Retirement +*' Early retirement of capacities is not possible as long as vm_capEarlyReti is fixed to zero. +*' If early retirement should be activated, vm_capEarlyReti is allowed to increase up to one. +*' One means that 100% of standing capacity of this technology is retired and does not produce output in this time step. +*' allow early retirement only for technologies in teEarlyReti +vm_capEarlyReti.up(t,regi,te)$( NOT(teEarlyReti(te))) = 0; +vm_capEarlyReti.up(t,regi,teEarlyReti) = 1; + +$ifthen.tech_earlyreti not "%c_tech_earlyreti_rate%" == "off" +*' allow early retirement also for technology and region combinations as defined by c_tech_earlyreti_rate switch +loop((ext_regi,te) $ p_techEarlyRetiRate(ext_regi,te), + vm_capEarlyReti.up(t,regi,te) $ (regi_group(ext_regi,regi)) = 1; +); +$endif.tech_earlyreti + +*** restrict early retirement to time frame between 2015 and 2100 where it is relevant +vm_capEarlyReti.up(ttot,regi,te) $ (ttot.val < 2010 or ttot.val > 2110) = 0; + +*** only US and EUR allow early retirement before 2035 +loop(regi$(NOT(regi_group("USA_regi",regi) or regi_group("EUR_regi",regi))), + vm_capEarlyReti.up(t,regi,te) $ (t.val <= 2030) = 0; +); + +*** lower bound of 0.01% to help the model to be aware of the early retirement option is time steps where it is active +vm_capEarlyReti.lo(t,regi,teEarlyReti) $ ( vm_capEarlyReti.up(t,regi,teEarlyReti) eq 1 and t.val > 2010 and t.val <= 2100) = 1e-4; + +*' Phase-out of technologies + *' Switch off coal-h2 hydrogen investments after 2020, and gas-h2 investments after 2030. Our current seh2 hydrogen represents *' only additional (clean) hydrogen use cases to current ones. However, as we have too high H2 demand in 2025 and 2030 from the *' input data, we need to allow grey hydrogen for these time periods to meet the hydrogen demand which cannot be fully met by @@ -389,34 +422,8 @@ vm_cap.lo(t,regi,"coalh2",rlf) $ (t.val >= 2020) = 0; vm_cap.lo(t,regi,"gash2",rlf) $ (t.val > 2030) = 0; -*** CB: allow for early retirement at the start of free model time -*** allow non zero early retirement for all technologies to avoid mathematical errors -vm_capEarlyReti.up(t,regi,te) = 1e-6; -*** generally allow full early retiremnt for all fossil technologies without CCS -vm_capEarlyReti.up(t,regi,teFosNoCCS(te)) = 1; -*** allow nuclear early retirement -vm_capEarlyReti.up(t,regi,"tnrs") = 1; -*** allow early retirement of biomass used in electricity -vm_capEarlyReti.up(t,regi,"bioigcc") = 1; -*** allow early retirement of biomass used for heat and power -vm_capEarlyReti.up(t,regi,"biohp") = 1; -vm_capEarlyReti.up(t,regi,"biochp") = 1; - -*** allow early retirement for techs added to the c_tech_earlyreti_rate switch -$ifthen.tech_earlyreti not "%c_tech_earlyreti_rate%" == "off" -loop((ext_regi,te) $ p_techEarlyRetiRate(ext_regi,te), - vm_capEarlyReti.up(t,regi,te) $ (regi_group(ext_regi,regi)) = 1; -); -$endif.tech_earlyreti - -*** restrict early retirement to the modeling time frame (to reduce runtime, the early retirement equations are phased out after 2110) -vm_capEarlyReti.up(ttot,regi,te) $ (ttot.val < 2010 or ttot.val > 2110) = 0; -*** lower bound of 0.01% to help the model to be aware of the early retirement option -vm_capEarlyReti.lo(t,regi,te) $ (vm_capEarlyReti.up(t,regi,te) >= 1 and t.val > 2010 and t.val <= 2100) = 1e-4; -*** CB 20120301: no early retirement for diesel oil turbines, they are used despite their economic non-competitiveness for various reasons. -vm_capEarlyReti.fx(t,regi,"dot") = 0; *** strong reliance on coal-to-liquids is not consistent with SSP1 storyline, therefore limit their use in the SSP1 and SSP2 policy scenarios diff --git a/core/datainput.gms b/core/datainput.gms index 404a376d4..ce8126ff9 100644 --- a/core/datainput.gms +++ b/core/datainput.gms @@ -764,16 +764,36 @@ pm_cf(ttot,regi,"tdh2i") = pm_cf(ttot,regi,"tdh2s"); loop(ext_regi$pm_extRegiEarlyRetiRate(ext_regi), pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,te)$(regi_group(ext_regi,regi)) = pm_extRegiEarlyRetiRate(ext_regi); ); -***Tech-specific* -*RP*: reduce early retirement for technologies with additional characteristics that are difficult to represent in REMIND, eg. industries built around heating/CHP plants, or flexibility from ngt plants + + +*** for runs with all EU subregions (regionmapping21_EU21), increase early retirement rates for the EU regions +*** because the higher regional resolution already introduces more intertia to the phase-out dynamics +*** check whether DEU, FRA, ENC, ESC, ESW, ECS all contained in regi set +if( (sum(regi$sameas(regi,"DEU"),1) > 0) + and (sum(regi$sameas(regi,"FRA"),1) > 0) + and (sum(regi$sameas(regi,"ENC"),1) > 0) + and (sum(regi$sameas(regi,"ESC"),1) > 0) + and (sum(regi$sameas(regi,"ESW"),1) > 0) + and (sum(regi$sameas(regi,"ECS"),1) > 0), +*** increase default early retirement rates by 2%/yr for EU subregions + loop(regi$regi_group("EUR_regi",regi), + pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,te) = pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,te) + 0.02 + ); +); + + +*** Technology-specific adaptations of maximum allowed annual early retirement rates +*** increase early retirement for technologies that are old and should be phased out faster +pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"pc") = 1.2 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"pc"); !! standard coal power plants, pc, are a relatively old technology that should be allowed to retire faster +*** reduce early retirement for technologies with additional characteristics that are difficult to represent in REMIND, eg. industries built around heating/CHP plants, or flexibility from ngt plants pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"ngt") = 0.3 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"ngt"); !! ngt should only be phased out very slowly, as they provide flexibility - which REMIND is not too good at capturing endogeneously -pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"gaschp") = 0.5 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"gaschp"); !! chp should only be phased out slowly, as district heating networks/ industry uses are designed to a specific heat input -pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"coalchp") = 0.5 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"coalchp"); !! chp should only be phased out slowly, as district heating networks/ industry uses are designed to a specific heat input -pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"gashp") = 0.5 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"gashp"); !! chp should only be phased out slowly, as district heating networks/ industry uses are designed to a specific heat input -pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"coalhp") = 0.5 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"coalhp"); !! chp should only be phased out slowly, as district heating networks/ industry uses are designed to a specific heat input -pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"biohp") = 0.25 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"biohp"); !! chp should only be phased out slowly, as district heating networks/ industry uses are designed to a specific heat input -pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"biochp") = 0.25 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"biochp"); !! chp should only be phased out slowly, as district heating networks/ industry uses are designed to a specific heat input -pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"bioigcc") = 0.25 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"bioigcc"); !! reduce bio early retirement rate +pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"gaschp") = 0.7 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"gaschp"); !! chp should only be phased out slowly, as district heating networks/ industry uses are designed to a specific heat input +pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"coalchp") = 0.7 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"coalchp"); !! chp should only be phased out slowly, as district heating networks/ industry uses are designed to a specific heat input +pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"gashp") = 0.5 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"gashp"); !! district heating plants should only be phased out slowly, as district heating networks/ industry uses are designed to a specific heat input +pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"coalhp") = 0.5 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"coalhp"); !! district heating plants should only be phased out slowly, as district heating networks/ industry uses are designed to a specific heat input +pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"biohp") = 0.25 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"biohp"); !! biomass technologies should only be phased-out slowly, case for their early retirement is shifting the allocation of biomass across technologies to optimize biogenic carbon capture/use +pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"biochp") = 0.25 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"biochp"); !! biomass technologies should only be phased-out slowly, case for their early retirement is shifting the allocation of biomass across technologies to optimize biogenic carbon capture/use +pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"bioigcc") = 0.25 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"bioigcc"); !! biomass technologies should only be phased-out slowly, case for their early retirement is shifting the allocation of biomass across technologies to optimize biogenic carbon capture/use $ifthen.tech_earlyreti not "%c_tech_earlyreti_rate%" == "off" loop((ext_regi,te)$p_techEarlyRetiRate(ext_regi,te), @@ -1206,7 +1226,7 @@ loop(ttot$(ttot.val ge 2005), p_adj_seed_te(ttot,regi,"geohdr") = 0.1; p_adj_seed_te(ttot,regi,"hydro") = 0.25; p_adj_seed_te(ttot,regi,"windoff") = 0.5; - p_adj_seed_te(ttot,regi,"spv") = 2.00; + p_adj_seed_te(ttot,regi,"spv") = 1.5; p_adj_seed_te(ttot,regi,"csp") = 0.25; p_adj_seed_te(ttot,regi,"tnrs") = 0.25; *** green hydrogen and synthetic fuels @@ -1253,7 +1273,7 @@ $endif.cm_subsec_model_steel p_adj_coeff(ttot,regi,"hydro") = 1.0; p_adj_coeff(ttot,regi,"windon") = 0.25; p_adj_coeff(ttot,regi,"windoff") = 0.35; - p_adj_coeff(ttot,regi,"spv") = 0.15; + p_adj_coeff(ttot,regi,"spv") = 0.18; p_adj_coeff(ttot,regi,"tnrs") = 1.0; *** VRE storage and grid p_adj_coeff(ttot,regi,teGrid) = 0.3; diff --git a/core/sets.gms b/core/sets.gms index b89cd9e31..9e2316559 100755 --- a/core/sets.gms +++ b/core/sets.gms @@ -1172,6 +1172,11 @@ $ifthen.cm_subsec_model_steel "%cm_subsec_model_steel%" == "processes" idrcc "Direct reduction CCS" $endif.cm_subsec_model_steel / + +***----------------------------------------------------------------------------- +*** Definition of subsets of 'te': +***----------------------------------------------------------------------------- + teAdj(all_te) "technologies with adjustment costs on capacity additions" / ngcc "natural gas combined cycle" @@ -1250,9 +1255,29 @@ $ifthen.cm_subsec_model_steel "%cm_subsec_model_steel%" == "processes" $endif.cm_subsec_model_steel / -***----------------------------------------------------------------------------- -*** Definition of subsets of 'te': -***----------------------------------------------------------------------------- +teEarlyReti(all_te) "technologies for which early retirement of existing capacities is allowed (i.e. before end of technical lifetime)." +/ + ngcc + ngt + gastr + gaschp + gashp + gash2 + gasftrec + refliq + igcc + pc + coalchp + coalhp + coaltr + coalgas + coalftrec + coalh2 + biochp + biohp + bioigcc + tnrs +/ *** Note: technologies without endogenous learning can also have decreasing (or increasing) capital cost over time, due to for example convergence to global value teLearn(all_te) "Learning technologies (for which investment costs are reduced endogenously through capacity deployment)." diff --git a/main.gms b/main.gms index 17d3df87d..3ff195144 100755 --- a/main.gms +++ b/main.gms @@ -1398,11 +1398,17 @@ $setglobal cm_NPi_version 2025_cond !! def = "2025_cond" !! regexp = 2025_( *' (ELEVATE2p3): settings used for ELEVATE2p3 LTS and NDC-LTS scenario $setglobal cm_netZeroScen NGFS_v4 !! def = "NGFS_v4" !! regexp = NGFS_v4|NGFS_v4_20pc|ELEVATE2p3 *' * c_regi_earlyreti_rate "maximum percentage of capital stock that can be retired early (before reaching their expected lifetimes) in one year in specified regions, if they are not economically viable. It is applied to all techs unless otherwise specified in c_tech_earlyreti_rate." -*' * GLO 0.09, EUR_regi 0.15: default value. (0.09 means full retirement after 11 years, 10% standing after 10 years) -$setglobal c_regi_earlyreti_rate GLO 0.09, EUR_regi 0.15 !! def = GLO 0.09, EUR_regi 0.15 +*' * Default value used in NPi runs: EUR_regi 0.06, USA_regi 0.04, CHA_regi 0.04, CAZ_regi 0.04, JPN_regi 0.04, GLO 0.03 (0.06 means 6% of capacity can be retired early per year at maximum, i.e. full retirement after 16.7 years, 40% standing capacity after 10 years) +*' * In target scenarios with ambition level beyond the NPi, we assume slightly higher early retirement rates outside the EU. +*' * Target scenario maximum retirement rates: EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06 +*' * This reflects that the current aversion to shut down plants before end of their lifetime linked to political economy dynamics can be overcome to speed up the energy transition. +*' * Finally, note that these maximum early retirement rates are further differentiated by technology. Coal power has 20% higher rates, for instance, while CHP plants have 30% lower rates than the default value (see core/datainput.gms). +$setglobal c_regi_earlyreti_rate EUR_regi 0.06, USA_regi 0.04, CHA_regi 0.04, CAZ_regi 0.04, JPN_regi 0.04, GLO 0.03 !! def = EUR_regi 0.06, USA_regi 0.04, CHA_regi 0.04, CAZ_regi 0.04, JPN_regi 0.04, GLO 0.03 *' * c_tech_earlyreti_rate "maximum percentage of capital stock of specific technologies that can be retired early in one year in specified regions. This switch overrides c_regi_earlyreti_rate to allow for fine-tuning of phase-out schedules, e.g. for implementation of certain policies or anticipated trends." -*' * USA_regi.pc 0.13, REF_regi.pc 0.13, CHA_regi.pc 0.13: default value, including retirement of 1st gen biofuels, higher rate of coal phase-out for USA, REF and CHA -$setglobal c_tech_earlyreti_rate USA_regi.pc 0.13, REF_regi.pc 0.13, CHA_regi.pc 0.13 !! def = USA_regi.pc 0.13, REF_regi.pc 0.13, CHA_regi.pc 0.13 +*' * Example use: USA_regi.pc 0.1, CHA_regi.pc 0.1: Change max retirement rates for coal power in US and China to 10%/yr. +*' * Keep value "off" if not needed. +*' * This switch only changes the retirement rates strictly before the year specified in c_earlyRetiValidYr (default 2035). +$setglobal c_tech_earlyreti_rate off !! def = off *** cm_LU_emi_scen "choose emission baseline for CO2, CH4, and N2O land use emissions from MAgPIE" *** (SSP1): emissions (from SSP1 scenario in MAgPIE) *** (SSP2): emissions (from SSP2 scenario in MAgPIE) diff --git a/modules/45_carbonprice/NPi2025/datainput.gms b/modules/45_carbonprice/NPi2025/datainput.gms index 0ac99519b..f00c1a6fd 100755 --- a/modules/45_carbonprice/NPi2025/datainput.gms +++ b/modules/45_carbonprice/NPi2025/datainput.gms @@ -10,15 +10,27 @@ *** CO2 Tax level growing exponentially from 2025 value taken from input data ***---------------------------- +*** for years up to 2025 take CO2 price defined by fm_taxCO2eqHist +*** fm_taxCO2eqHist reflects historical carbon prices and +*** assumptions on current aggregate effect of other policies pm_taxCO2eq(ttot,regi)$(ttot.val le 2025) = fm_taxCO2eqHist(ttot,regi) * sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC; -pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$(t.val gt 2025) = sum(ttot, pm_taxCO2eq(ttot,regi)$(ttot.val eq 2025)) + (t.val - 2025) * (20/75) * sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC; +*** for years after 2025, assume modest linear increase of CO2 price by 20 USD/tCO2 over 75 years (2025-2100) +pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$(t.val gt 2025) = pm_taxCO2eq("2025",regi) + + (t.val - 2025) * (20/75) * sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC; + +*** for EU, take carbon price from fm_taxCO2eqHist up to 2030, +*** then increase linearly by 20 USD/tCO2 over 75 years (2030-2100) loop(ext_regi$sameas(ext_regi, "EUR_regi"), - pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$(t.val ge 2030 AND regi_group(ext_regi,regi)) = (fm_taxCO2eqHist("2030",regi)+ (t.val - 2030) * (20/75)) * sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC; + pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$( t.val ge 2030 + AND regi_group(ext_regi,regi)) = ( fm_taxCO2eqHist("2030",regi) + + (t.val - 2030) * (20/75) ) * sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC; ); -pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$(t.val gt 2100) = pm_taxCO2eq("2100",regi); !! to prevent huge taxes after 2100 and the resulting convergence problems, set taxes after 2100 equal to 2100 value + +*** after 2100, keep CO2 price constant at 2100 level +pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$(t.val gt 2100) = pm_taxCO2eq("2100",regi); *** switch off MAC abatement of land emissions, scenario should only have Magpie baseline emissions pm_macSwitch(ttot,regi,emiMacMagpie) = 0;