Project Description:

This project features a comprehensive dataset documenting Amazon Inc.'s historical stock performance from January 1, 1999, to December 20, 2023. Including daily records of open, high, low, and close prices, and trading volumes, the dataset serves analysts, investors, and data enthusiasts for in-depth analyses, trend assessments, and predictive modeling specific to AMZN stock. With structured data points such as Date, Open, High, Low, Close, and Adjusted Close prices, researchers can explore historical trends, build predictive models, and study trading volumes. Users are encouraged to employ the dataset for research, education, and analytical purposes, attributing Yahoo Finance as the source and exercising caution in interpreting historical stock data for decision-making due to market complexities.

Project Goals:

accurately forecast both daily and quarterly adjusted close prices, enabling comprehensive comparison with real-time data for enhanced insights and decision-making in the realm of AMZN stock analysis.

Inital Questions:

1. How has the overall trend in Amazon stock prices evolved over the entire period available in the dataset?
2. Are there any noticeable long-term patterns, upward or downward trends, and what factors might have contributed to these trends?
3. Are there any discernible seasonal patterns or cyclical trends in Amazon stock prices over different periods, such as months, quarters, or years?
4. How do key events or seasons (e.g., holiday seasons, earnings reports) correlate with fluctuations in stock prices?
5. How variable are Amazon stock prices over time, and has there been any significant change in volatility during specific periods?
6. Can you identify and analyze any major events (e.g., earnings announcements, market shifts, global events) that coincide with notable spikes or declines in volatility?

Data Dictionary:

Project Planning, Layout of Science Pipeline:

Acquire

• Acquire Dataset through Finance Yahoo
• 6283 rows x 5 columns

Prepare

• Clean the data
• Drop Columns
• Rename columns
• Remove nulls
• Split data (70/30)

Explore

• Answer initial questions
• Utilize plotting methods for data visualization
• Explore impactful events throughout the timelines such as 9/11, the 2008 stock market drop, the Covid-19 pandemic, etc...

Model

• Resample Data Quarterly
• Perform various methods of predictions with machine learning: ARIMA, Polynomial Regression, OLS
• Access accuracy

Instructions on How to Reproduce this Project:

1. Access the Amazon Project repository on GitHub.
2. Click on the "Code" button and select "Download ZIP" to download the entire repository to your computer. Extract the downloaded ZIP file to a directory of your choice. Or you may copy the SSH code onto your terminal.
3. If you wish to have updated data you may download the CSV from Finance Yahoo
4. Save the downloaded CSV file as "AMZN_data.csv.csv" in the same repository. Replace the old Amazon data sets.
5. Open the extracted repository directory and locate the "final_report.ipynb" notebook.
6. Launch Jupyter Notebook or JupyterLab on your computer.
7. Navigate to the extracted repository directory within the Jupyter interface.
8. Click on the "final_report.ipynb" notebook to open it.
9. Execute the notebook cells to reproduce the analysis using the downloaded dataset.
10. Modify the notebook as needed, such as adjusting parameters or adding additional visualizations. Save the modified notebook for future reference or sharing.

Executive Summary:

• Stock prices exhibited a steady increase from 2010 onwards, with minor fluctuations during the period from 2000 to 2009, marked by adjustment periods. Amazon's pivotal milestones include the launch of Prime membership in 2005, the introduction of the Kindle in 2007, and by 2022, the company boasted over 2 billion annual visitors per month.
• Seasonal variations, such as Black Friday, Christmas, and back-to-school periods, influenced stock trends. Notably, November and December showed consistent trends with significant drops during 2008-2010 and 2014-2016, followed by steady recoveries.
• Post-2014, volatility escalated significantly, attributed to increased technological usage and a surge in stock clientele, leading to heightened highs and drastic drops in stock prices.
• Events like 9/11 and the 2008 market crash impacted Amazon's stock prices, with notable declines and slow recoveries. The European crash of 2010 also caused a decrease, yet Amazon maintained a steady increase with periodic adjustments, except during July 2011, possibly influenced by the US debt ceiling issue, but the stock eventually recovered by the month-end.

Takeaways: