ClimateIndicator · piers-forster · Apr 4, 2026 · Apr 4, 2026 · Apr 4, 2026 · Apr 4, 2026
diff --git a/.gitignore b/.gitignore
@@ -12,8 +12,7 @@ data/slcf_emissions/cams/*.nc
 data/slcf_emissions/ceds/v20250311
 data/slcf_emissions/merra
 data/era5
-data/slcf_emissions/gfed/
-data/solar
+data/slcf_emissions/gfed/*.hdf5
 
 # large output
 output/*.nc

diff --git a/README.md b/README.md
@@ -4,20 +4,20 @@
 
 This repository generates the following data and plots from the Climate Indicator Project:
 
-- Greenhouse gas concentrations 1750-2025
-- Effective radiative forcing 1750-2025
+- Greenhouse gas concentrations 1750-2024
+- Effective radiative forcing 1750-2024
 
 As part of the ERF time series, emissions are processed from CEDS and GFED.
 
-**Please note that 2025 data is preliminary; in many cases it is based on extrapolations and estimates. The data will not be final until IGCC 2025 is published in early summer 2026.**
+**Please note that 2024 data is preliminary; in many cases it is based on extrapolations and estimates. The data will not be final until IGCC 2024 is published in early summer 2025.**
 
-![Bar plot of effective radiative forcing 1750-2025](plots/ERF.png)
+![Bar plot of effective radiative forcing 1750-2024](plots/ERF_1750-2024.png)
 
-![Line plot of time series of effective radiative forcing 1750-2025](plots/ERF_timeseries.png)
+![Line plot of time series of effective radiative forcing 1750-2024](plots/ERF_timeseries_1750-2024.png)
 
 The code also provides a probabilistic ensemble of 1000 forcing time series for the detection and attribution of climate change.
 
-Code also caculates decadal rates of ERF change and human induced warming change (for 2025 we are still waiting on the final temperature assessment)
+Code also caculates decadal rates of ERF change and human induced warming change
 ![Line plot of time series of decadal rates of change in effective radiative forcing and human induced warming 1970-2023](plots/decadal_trends.png)
 
 ## Reproducibility

diff --git a/data/contrails/contrails.csv b/data/contrails/contrails.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,94 @@
+year,ERF_mW_m2
+1930,0
+1931,0.0282261541
+1932,0.0564523082
+1933,0.0846784623
+1934,0.1129046163
+1935,0.1411307704
+1936,0.1693569245
+1937,0.1975830786
+1938,0.2258092327
+1939,0.2540353868
+1940,0.2822615409
+1941,0.3127751132
+1942,0.3486500418
+1943,0.3862887508
+1944,0.4298557501
+1945,0.475559651
+1946,0.532138624
+1947,0.5870657131
+1948,0.6537955159
+1949,0.723801928
+1950,0.8068793493
+1951,0.8940416455
+1952,0.990558408
+1953,1.1022770574
+1954,1.2248712619
+1955,1.3590135507
+1956,1.5111121285
+1957,1.6765247347
+1958,1.8620679546
+1959,2.0628820404
+1960,2.2925867433
+1961,2.5859104805
+1962,2.9275125283
+1963,3.1755233138
+1964,3.4137913376
+1965,3.7506471979
+1966,4.1788497419
+1967,5.0684937819
+1968,5.9014265619
+1969,6.352444874
+1970,6.5471007683
+1971,7.6946205161
+1972,8.067633595
+1973,8.3098027411
+1974,8.0091771855
+1975,7.9911052175
+1976,7.9643568747
+1977,8.4104691354
+1978,8.6514605867
+1979,8.9427050205
+1980,8.9591054936
+1981,9.0018099927
+1982,9.4037412987
+1983,9.8450774825
+1984,10.7856108636
+1985,11.4315478109
+1986,12.4207628803
+1987,13.3416405043
+1988,14.3978696607
+1989,15.4119999282
+1990,15.73796952
+1991,15.61860144
+1992,17.1824328
+1993,18.74626416
+1994,19.98484488
+1995,21.3219864
+1996,22.56056712
+1997,23.6874456
+1998,24.57230256
+1999,26.00033904
+2000,28.4529215886
+2001,28.6451710588
+2002,27.9327171398
+2003,29.086213961
+2004,32.9877473267
+2005,34.8876244439
+2006,36.3351498665
+2007,38.2576445684
+2008,39.171141766
+2009,38.1841621932
+2010,42.015659576
+2011,44.287272474
+2012,45.3966188089
+2013,46.8052412781
+2014,48.6894763612
+2015,51.1463085638
+2016,53.8837860676
+2017,56.4954523558
+2018,57.614920272
+2019,59.3548908642
+2020,32.8534574287
+2021,38.3849068937
+2022,54.3064376865
diff --git a/data/ghg_concentrations/noaa_gml/ch4_annmean_gl.txt b/data/ghg_concentrations/noaa_gml/ch4_annmean_gl.txt
@@ -14,7 +14,7 @@
 # 
 # Contact:  Xin Lan (xin.lan@noaa.gov)
 # 
-# File Creation: Thu Feb  5 04:05:09 2026
+# File Creation: Thu Jun  5 04:05:09 2025
 # 
 # 
 # --------------------------------------------------------------------
@@ -44,44 +44,44 @@
 # 
 
 # year     mean      unc
-  1984  1644.84     0.71
-  1985  1657.30     0.66
-  1986  1670.09     0.79
-  1987  1682.71     0.52
-  1988  1693.20     0.60
-  1989  1704.55     0.55
-  1990  1714.43     0.71
-  1991  1724.79     0.70
-  1992  1735.47     0.59
-  1993  1736.48     0.47
-  1994  1742.08     0.58
-  1995  1748.88     0.54
-  1996  1751.30     0.65
-  1997  1754.51     0.42
-  1998  1765.57     0.62
-  1999  1772.31     0.56
-  2000  1773.22     0.72
-  2001  1771.29     0.53
-  2002  1772.68     0.56
-  2003  1777.33     0.59
-  2004  1777.13     0.44
-  2005  1774.23     0.52
-  2006  1774.93     0.53
-  2007  1781.31     0.56
-  2008  1787.01     0.60
-  2009  1793.51     0.62
-  2010  1798.92     0.67
-  2011  1803.02     0.62
-  2012  1808.07     0.54
-  2013  1813.42     0.64
-  2014  1822.58     0.50
-  2015  1834.19     0.51
-  2016  1843.18     0.59
-  2017  1849.62     0.66
-  2018  1857.33     0.88
-  2019  1866.59     0.63
-  2020  1878.72     0.66
-  2021  1894.79     0.65
-  2022  1910.92     0.88
-  2023  1921.38     0.71
-  2024  1929.53     0.61
+  1984  1644.84     0.62
+  1985  1657.29     0.60
+  1986  1670.09     0.74
+  1987  1682.70     0.48
+  1988  1693.21     0.62
+  1989  1704.53     0.54
+  1990  1714.47     0.77
+  1991  1724.76     0.71
+  1992  1735.48     0.59
+  1993  1736.48     0.44
+  1994  1742.05     0.55
+  1995  1748.88     0.52
+  1996  1751.30     0.61
+  1997  1754.51     0.38
+  1998  1765.53     0.59
+  1999  1772.30     0.50
+  2000  1773.22     0.71
+  2001  1771.29     0.47
+  2002  1772.66     0.51
+  2003  1777.33     0.55
+  2004  1777.05     0.51
+  2005  1774.25     0.53
+  2006  1774.94     0.49
+  2007  1781.38     0.57
+  2008  1787.01     0.61
+  2009  1793.54     0.68
+  2010  1798.88     0.63
+  2011  1803.09     0.56
+  2012  1808.12     0.57
+  2013  1813.43     0.60
+  2014  1822.54     0.52
+  2015  1834.21     0.48
+  2016  1843.12     0.62
+  2017  1849.58     0.59
+  2018  1857.34     0.79
+  2019  1866.54     0.55
+  2020  1878.73     0.59
+  2021  1894.81     0.53
+  2022  1910.93     0.75
+  2023  1921.60     0.46
+  2024  1929.88     0.58
diff --git a/data/ghg_concentrations/noaa_gml/co2_annmean_gl.txt b/data/ghg_concentrations/noaa_gml/co2_annmean_gl.txt
@@ -14,7 +14,7 @@
 # 
 # Contact:  Xin Lan (xin.lan@noaa.gov)
 # 
-# File Creation: Thu Feb  5 03:55:12 2026
+# File Creation: Thu Jun  5 03:55:17 2025
 # 
 # 
 # --------------------------------------------------------------------
@@ -37,49 +37,49 @@
 # reasons.  Usually these changes are minor.
 # 
 # year     mean      unc
-  1979   336.86     0.10
+  1979   336.85     0.11
   1980   338.91     0.07
-  1981   340.11     0.08
-  1982   340.85     0.03
+  1981   340.11     0.09
+  1982   340.86     0.03
   1983   342.53     0.05
   1984   344.07     0.07
   1985   345.54     0.07
-  1986   346.97     0.07
-  1987   348.68     0.09
-  1988   351.16     0.06
+  1986   346.97     0.08
+  1987   348.68     0.10
+  1988   351.16     0.07
   1989   352.79     0.07
-  1990   354.06     0.07
-  1991   355.40     0.06
+  1990   354.05     0.06
+  1991   355.39     0.06
   1992   356.09     0.07
   1993   356.83     0.07
-  1994   358.33     0.09
-  1995   360.18     0.05
+  1994   358.33     0.08
+  1995   360.17     0.05
   1996   361.93     0.04
-  1997   363.04     0.05
+  1997   363.05     0.04
   1998   365.70     0.05
-  1999   367.79     0.06
-  2000   368.96     0.07
-  2001   370.57     0.06
-  2002   372.58     0.05
-  2003   375.14     0.04
-  2004   376.95     0.06
+  1999   367.80     0.06
+  2000   368.96     0.06
+  2001   370.57     0.04
+  2002   372.58     0.04
+  2003   375.15     0.04
+  2004   376.95     0.05
   2005   378.98     0.05
-  2006   381.16     0.05
+  2006   381.15     0.05
   2007   382.90     0.05
   2008   385.02     0.04
   2009   386.50     0.04
-  2010   388.75     0.07
-  2011   390.62     0.07
+  2010   388.75     0.06
+  2011   390.62     0.05
   2012   392.65     0.07
   2013   395.40     0.06
   2014   397.34     0.05
   2015   399.65     0.05
-  2016   403.07     0.07
-  2017   405.21     0.08
-  2018   407.62     0.08
-  2019   410.07     0.09
+  2016   403.06     0.07
+  2017   405.22     0.08
+  2018   407.61     0.07
+  2019   410.07     0.08
   2020   412.44     0.07
   2021   414.70     0.07
   2022   417.08     0.08
-  2023   419.37     0.10
-  2024   422.80     0.10
+  2023   419.36     0.10
+  2024   422.79     0.08
diff --git a/data/ghg_concentrations/noaa_gml/n2o_annmean_gl.txt b/data/ghg_concentrations/noaa_gml/n2o_annmean_gl.txt
@@ -14,7 +14,7 @@
 # 
 # Contact:  Xin Lan (xin.lan@noaa.gov)
 # 
-# File Creation: Thu Feb  5 04:06:26 2026
+# File Creation: Thu Jun  5 04:06:07 2025
 # 
 # 
 # --------------------------------------------------------------------
@@ -45,26 +45,26 @@
 
 # year     mean      unc
   2001   316.36     0.13
-  2002   316.94     0.12
-  2003   317.63     0.14
-  2004   318.25     0.13
-  2005   318.91     0.13
+  2002   316.94     0.14
+  2003   317.62     0.13
+  2004   318.26     0.11
+  2005   318.91     0.12
   2006   319.82     0.12
-  2007   320.44     0.14
+  2007   320.44     0.12
   2008   321.50     0.13
-  2009   322.27     0.12
-  2010   323.18     0.12
+  2009   322.27     0.13
+  2010   323.18     0.13
   2011   324.21     0.12
-  2012   325.05     0.14
+  2012   325.05     0.12
   2013   325.94     0.12
   2014   327.09     0.12
-  2015   328.17     0.11
+  2015   328.17     0.13
   2016   328.95     0.13
   2017   329.74     0.13
-  2018   330.90     0.13
-  2019   331.88     0.13
-  2020   333.01     0.06
+  2018   330.90     0.12
+  2019   331.88     0.12
+  2020   333.01     0.05
   2021   334.27     0.03
-  2022   335.61     0.03
-  2023   336.68     0.03
-  2024   337.71     0.02
+  2022   335.62     0.03
+  2023   336.69     0.03
+  2024   337.72     0.11
diff --git a/data/ghg_concentrations/noaa_gml/sf6_annmean_gl.txt b/data/ghg_concentrations/noaa_gml/sf6_annmean_gl.txt
@@ -14,7 +14,7 @@
 # 
 # Contact:  Xin Lan (xin.lan@noaa.gov)
 # 
-# File Creation: Thu Feb  5 04:07:08 2026
+# File Creation: Thu Jun  5 04:07:08 2025
 # 
 # 
 # --------------------------------------------------------------------
@@ -65,9 +65,9 @@
   2016     8.91     0.00
   2017     9.26     0.00
   2018     9.60     0.01
-  2019     9.94     0.00
+  2019     9.94     0.01
   2020    10.26     0.01
   2021    10.63     0.01
   2022    11.02     0.01
   2023    11.40     0.01
-  2024    11.80     0.01
+  2024    11.80     0.00