Global Resource EROI Model

Physics-Based EROI Decline Simulation

Author: Laszlo Tatai (lesliePi) Birthday: Pi Day (March 14) - precision matters Status: Active Research - Open Source

What This Model Shows

1. Oil & Gas EROI Decline: From ~9:1 to ~4:1 by 2070
2. Critical Minerals: 5-10x energy cost increases
3. Net Energy Collapse: Non-linear below EROI=10
4. Energy Transition Paradox: Green tech depends on declining EROI resources

Live Demo

The model runs live at:
https://lesliePi.github.io/global-resource-eroi-model

Methodology

• Harmonic Mean EROI: Physically correct weighted average
• Exponential Field Quality Decline: Geological reality
• Non-linear Net Energy: f_net = 1 - 1/EROI
• Dynamic Resource Mix: Shift to lower quality deposits

Immediate Applications

1. Energy Policy: Realistic transition planning
2. Resource Economics: Beyond monetary price
3. Climate Scenarios: Physical constraints on solutions
4. Strategic Planning: Long-term infrastructure

Key Findings

• The global oil EROI critical threshold (8-10:1) will be crossed around 2030-2040
• Lithium and rare earths face energy cost explosions (500-1000% increases)
• Net energy availability declines faster than gross energy
• Circular economy is not optional - it's thermodynamically necessary

Contact & Collaboration

This is an open research project. Contact: lesliePi on GitHub Serious researchers welcome - especially those who:

• Understand thermodynamics
• Work with real geological data
• Think in systems, not silos

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"We're not running out of resources - we're running out of high-EROI resources."