EU System Monitor

Auditable Supply & System Risk Platform

"Papíron elegendo az eroforrás -- a valóságban az ido és a hálózat dönti el, hogy eljut-e oda, ahol szükség van rá."

A single-researcher project demonstrating that EU-wide supply chain risk can be monitored, integrated, and visualised from entirely public data sources -- without institutional infrastructure.

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What This Is

The EU System Monitor is an auditable, data-driven platform that:

• Draws exclusively on official public data sources
• Records SHA256 hashes and timestamps for every downloaded file
• Integrates three critical systems: energy, industry, food
• Computes a cascade stress index reflecting real supply chain dynamics
• Produces a self-contained static HTML dashboard requiring no server

This is not analysis. It shows reality.

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Live Dashboard

The static dashboard is in output/eu_system_monitor_static.html.
Open it directly in any browser -- no server required.

For the GitHub Pages version: [link to be added after Pages setup]

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Three Pillars

Energy

• GIE AGSI+ -- EU natural gas storage (daily, 2017--)
• GIE ALSI -- EU LNG terminal storage (daily, 2017--)
• Key metrics: storage %, injection gap, cumulative deficit

Industry

• Eurostat STS_INPR_M -- EU Industrial Production Index (monthly)
• Baltic Dry Index -- global shipping cost proxy (daily, manual ingest)
• Key metrics: IPI year-on-year change, BDI 30-day moving average

Food

• FAO FFPI -- Food and Agriculture Price Index (annual)
• Key metrics: FFPI level, year-on-year change

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Cascade Stress Model

The composite stress index uses a threshold-based cascade amplification:

Rule A: if stress_energy > 0.60
        -> industry weight x2.0 (energy crisis amplifies industrial stress)

Rule B: if stress_energy > 0.60 OR stress_industry > 0.60
        -> food weight x1.5 (upper pillar crisis amplifies food stress)

This reflects real supply chain dynamics: gas shortage -> fertiliser shortage -> harvest reduction -> food price increase.

All thresholds are explicit constants, not hidden parameters. Fully auditable.

Stress bands:

Band	Range	Meaning
Low	0.00 -- 0.30	No significant stress
Moderate	0.30 -- 0.55	Elevated vigilance warranted
Elevated	0.55 -- 0.75	Active monitoring required
Critical	0.75 -- 1.00	System stress, cascade risk

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Architecture

[OFFICIAL SOURCES]
       |
[eu_monitor_downloaders.py]   -- fetch, hash, audit
       |
[data/raw/]                   -- immutable raw files
       |
[eu_monitor_processor.py]     -- normalise, compute metrics, cascade model
       |
[output/eu_monitor_daily.csv]    -- daily resolution (GIE, BDI)
[output/eu_monitor_monthly.csv]  -- monthly aggregates + stress index
       |
[generate_dashboard.py]       -- inject data into HTML template
       |
[output/eu_system_monitor_static.html]  -- self-contained dashboard

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Audit Trail

Every downloaded file produces an audit record in data/audit/audit_log.json:

{
  "dataset_id": "energy.gas.storage",
  "source": "GIE",
  "source_url": "https://agsi.gie.eu/api?type=eu&from=2024-01-01&to=2024-12-31",
  "retrieved_at": "2026-04-25T14:12:00Z",
  "local_path": "data/raw/gie_agsi/agsi_2024.json",
  "raw_hash": "sha256:...",
  "row_count": 366,
  "unit": "TWh"
}

Core principle: a dataset is not trusted because it cannot be changed, but because any change is detectable.

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Quick Start

Requirements

Python 3.11+
pandas
numpy
openpyxl
requests
beautifulsoup4

Install:

pip install pandas numpy openpyxl requests beautifulsoup4

Setup

1. Clone the repository
2. Register at https://agsi.gie.eu to get a free GIE API key
3. Create a .env file in the project root:

   GIE_API_KEY=your_key_here
   

   (.env is in .gitignore -- never committed)

Run

# Download all data
python eu_monitor_downloaders.py

# For Baltic Dry Index (manual download required from investing.com):
python eu_monitor_downloaders.py --ingest-bdi path/to/Baltic_Dry.csv

# Process data and compute stress index
python eu_monitor_processor.py

# Generate self-contained static dashboard
python generate_dashboard.py

Open output/eu_system_monitor_static.html in any browser.

Monthly Update

Run the same three commands. Downloaders skip already-fetched files. Only new data is downloaded. Generate dashboard to publish updated version.

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Data Sources

Source	Dataset	Frequency	Access
GIE AGSI+	EU Gas Storage	Daily	Free API (registration required)
GIE ALSI	EU LNG Terminals	Daily	Free API (registration required)
Eurostat	Industrial Production STS_INPR_M	Monthly	Free, no key
FAO	Food Price Index FFPI	Annual	Free, direct download
Baltic Exchange	Baltic Dry Index	Daily	Manual CSV (investing.com)

All sources are official and publicly available. No proprietary data. No paywalls.

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Methodology Notes

• Stress Index computed on monthly aggregates only (daily fluctuations create noise)
• Daily charts use native resolution -- no interpolation
• Missing data remains NaN -- never imputed
• FAO FFPI is annual -- monthly rows are NaN except January anchor points
• BDI requires manual download -- no free API exists for historical data

These limitations are features, not bugs. Explicit limitations are a credibility feature.

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Repository Structure

eu-system-monitor/
  eu_monitor_config.py        -- central configuration, all parameters
  eu_monitor_downloaders.py   -- data acquisition, audit logging
  eu_monitor_processor.py     -- normalisation, metrics, cascade model
  generate_dashboard.py       -- static HTML generator
  .gitignore
  README.md
  LICENSE
  output/
    eu_system_monitor_static.html   -- self-contained dashboard (published)
    eu_system_monitor.html          -- template (data injected by generator)
  data/
    audit/
      audit_log.json          -- immutable audit trail (committed)

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Current Status (2026-04-25)

Metric	Value
EU Gas Storage	30.9%
Stress Index	0.574 (ELEVATED)
Cascade Active	Yes (energy-driven)
Data coverage	2017-04-25 (GIE), 1991-2023 (IPI), 1961-2026 (FAO)
Daily rows	3,400
Monthly rows	454

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Author

Laszlo Tatai / BarefootRealism Labs
Independent researcher and developer
Rabagyarmat, Orseg region, Hungary
ORCID: 0009-0007-5153-6306
GitHub: LesliePie

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License

Apache License 2.0 WITH Commons Clause v1.0

Free for personal, academic, and non-commercial use.
Commercial use requires written permission.

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Citation

If you use this work, please cite:

Tatai, L. (2026). EU System Monitor: Auditable Supply & System Risk Platform.
BarefootRealism Labs. GitHub: https://github.com/LesliePie/eu-system-monitor

Zenodo DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19827856

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Why This Exists

The EU has Eurostat, JRC, ENTSO-G, ACER, and dozens of other institutions collecting data in parallel. Each operates in its own silo. There is no integrated layer that says: "these three numbers are moving together, and that is a problem."

This project demonstrates that such integration is possible, from entirely public data, by a single independent researcher, in a single working day.

The question this raises is institutional, not technical.