Regenerate population impact data with March 2026 OBR forecasts

app/App.css

@@ -34,7 +34,7 @@
   background: rgba(15, 118, 110, 0.95);
   backdrop-filter: blur(12px);
   -webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(12px);
-  padding: var(--pe-space-md) var(--pe-space-xl);
+  padding: var(--pe-space-md) 0;
   width: 100%;
   position: sticky;
   top: 0;
@@ -45,6 +45,7 @@
 .title-row-inner {
   max-width: 1400px;
   margin: 0 auto;
+  padding: 0 var(--pe-space-xl);
   display: flex;
   justify-content: space-between;
   align-items: center;
@@ -65,7 +66,6 @@
   font-size: 1.05rem;
   line-height: 1.7;
   color: var(--pe-text-secondary);
-  max-width: 820px;
   margin-bottom: var(--pe-space-xl);
   animation: fadeIn 0.4s ease-out;
 }
@@ -491,7 +491,11 @@
   }
 
   .title-row {
-    padding: var(--pe-space-sm) var(--pe-space-md);
+    padding: var(--pe-space-sm) 0;
+  }
+
+  .title-row-inner {
+    padding: 0 var(--pe-space-md);
   }
 
   .title-row h1 {

app/page.jsx

@@ -77,12 +77,19 @@ function Dashboard() {
     <div className="app">
       <header className="title-row">
         <div className="title-row-inner">
-          <h1>Spring Statement 2026</h1>
+          <h1>Spring Statement 2026 analysis</h1>
         </div>
       </header>
       <main className="main-content">
         <p className="dashboard-intro">
-          PolicyEngine analysis of the OBR&apos;s March 2026 economic forecast
+          PolicyEngine analysis of the{" "}
+          <a
+            href="https://obr.uk/economic-and-fiscal-outlooks/"
+            target="_blank"
+            rel="noreferrer"
+          >
+            OBR&apos;s March 2026 economic forecast
+          </a>{" "}
           revisions and their projected impact on UK household incomes. The
           Spring Statement contained no new policy measures — all changes result
           from updated economic assumptions.

public/data/detailed_budgetary_impact.csv

@@ -1,51 +1,51 @@
 year,program,baseline,reform,difference
-2026,income_tax,303272.73899443523,303272.73899443523,0.0
-2026,national_insurance,56035.53018029651,56035.53018029651,0.0
-2026,vat,200684.99023889532,200684.99023889532,0.0
-2026,council_tax,60975.72982729077,60975.72982729077,0.0
-2026,fuel_duty,34765.63809750822,34765.63809750822,0.0
-2026,tax_credits,5406.764615242458,5406.764615242458,-0.0
-2026,universal_credit,80875.61182102392,80875.61182102392,-0.0
-2026,child_benefit,15677.099071694834,15677.099071694834,-0.0
-2026,state_pension,122276.98239907347,122276.98239907347,-0.0
-2026,pension_credit,5989.291994108764,5989.291994108764,-0.0
-2027,income_tax,318842.63694264094,318842.63694264094,0.0
-2027,national_insurance,58063.57606287163,58063.57606287163,0.0
-2027,vat,205496.36494742037,205496.36494742037,0.0
-2027,council_tax,64659.05849905342,64659.05849905342,0.0
-2027,fuel_duty,39462.0899228921,39462.0899228921,0.0
-2027,tax_credits,5558.882313274557,5558.882313274557,-0.0
-2027,universal_credit,83077.66709902306,83077.66709902306,-0.0
-2027,child_benefit,16125.300974580407,16125.300974580407,-0.0
-2027,state_pension,126142.7111801254,126142.7111801254,-0.0
-2027,pension_credit,6103.4966800892735,6103.4966800892735,-0.0
-2028,income_tax,332888.4167182199,332888.4167182199,0.0
-2028,national_insurance,58846.53796278711,58846.53796278711,0.0
-2028,vat,210527.23408144133,210527.23408144133,0.0
-2028,council_tax,68507.11337248725,68507.11337248725,0.0
-2028,fuel_duty,41970.256974364114,41970.256974364114,0.0
-2028,tax_credits,5681.531851997269,5681.531851997269,-0.0
-2028,universal_credit,85396.48175922343,85396.48175922343,-0.0
-2028,child_benefit,16516.8669624525,16516.8669624525,-0.0
-2028,state_pension,129329.04617681382,129329.04617681382,-0.0
-2028,pension_credit,6190.7437699792235,6190.7437699792235,-0.0
-2029,income_tax,347810.65010074497,347810.65010074497,0.0
-2029,national_insurance,60484.88450799108,60484.88450799108,0.0
-2029,vat,215767.21074488971,215767.21074488971,0.0
-2029,council_tax,72505.6181612071,72505.6181612071,0.0
-2029,fuel_duty,44280.64615361491,44280.64615361491,0.0
-2029,tax_credits,5811.8286665137675,5811.8286665137675,-0.0
-2029,universal_credit,87999.0821609842,87999.0821609842,-0.0
-2029,child_benefit,16927.9919284299,16927.9919284299,-0.0
-2029,state_pension,132659.48127452147,132659.48127452147,-0.0
-2029,pension_credit,6263.407463412997,6263.407463412997,-0.0
-2030,income_tax,364245.2533321321,364245.2533321321,0.0
-2030,national_insurance,62468.09505541894,62468.09505541894,0.0
-2030,vat,221072.93211309024,221072.93211309024,0.0
-2030,council_tax,76714.3507657324,76714.3507657324,0.0
-2030,fuel_duty,46687.89005494893,46687.89005494893,0.0
-2030,tax_credits,5937.397368991846,5937.397368991846,-0.0
-2030,universal_credit,89904.66771697627,89904.66771697627,-0.0
-2030,child_benefit,17351.062528444258,17351.062528444258,-0.0
-2030,state_pension,136099.19445440217,136099.19445440217,-0.0
-2030,pension_credit,5732.043683078642,5732.043683078642,-0.0
+2026,income_tax,304730.8439144392,304744.0698935997,13.225979160522462
+2026,national_insurance,55737.99965794466,56141.3191489743,403.3194910296402
+2026,vat,200835.8714179344,200835.8714179344,0.0
+2026,council_tax,60664.11190772149,60664.11190772149,0.0
+2026,fuel_duty,35463.747557224386,35463.747557224386,0.0
+2026,tax_credits,5290.852230760112,5286.707752740712,4.144478019400597
+2026,universal_credit,80892.74900119173,80867.7426383464,25.006362845321654
+2026,child_benefit,15611.400307538195,15603.84313430796,7.557173230236053
+2026,state_pension,122078.41468818983,122176.21637289779,-97.80168470796204
+2026,pension_credit,5972.874071519186,5954.92955415779,17.944517361395835
+2027,income_tax,320908.0067779534,320934.23671441426,26.22993646081543
+2027,national_insurance,58186.76532734835,57479.012494316165,-707.7528330321884
+2027,vat,205610.5477711693,205610.5477711693,0.0
+2027,council_tax,64519.435719095694,64519.435719095694,0.0
+2027,fuel_duty,40246.61442554191,40246.61442554191,0.0
+2027,tax_credits,5436.194798181148,5416.586102475047,19.60869570610237
+2027,universal_credit,82995.18245214972,82906.04219420836,89.14025794136047
+2027,child_benefit,16057.736020704735,16021.75957636995,35.97644433478546
+2027,state_pension,125938.71122687338,126143.831024713,-205.11979783961488
+2027,pension_credit,6085.320196301552,6024.0809320465605,61.23926425499153
+2028,income_tax,335134.91884455556,335164.9201421303,30.001297574768067
+2028,national_insurance,58915.746722880016,58806.409548955045,-109.3371739249649
+2028,vat,210561.63934467576,210561.63934467576,0.0
+2028,council_tax,68699.73700763391,68699.73700763391,0.0
+2028,fuel_duty,42787.86606888584,42787.86606888584,0.0
+2028,tax_credits,5555.893679060627,5534.008332033964,21.88534702666378
+2028,universal_credit,85295.01359726118,85198.50800779137,96.50558946980286
+2028,child_benefit,16447.663123018487,16407.538359263017,40.124763755470276
+2028,state_pension,129121.12650330196,129331.85101443302,-210.72451113105774
+2028,pension_credit,6174.526047702704,6108.649815220868,65.87623248183633
+2029,income_tax,350155.8273071976,350188.269292015,32.44198481738281
+2029,national_insurance,61384.56714483321,61774.167857809356,389.60071297615053
+2029,vat,215717.8752039614,215717.8752039614,0.0
+2029,council_tax,72862.3997553772,72862.3997553772,0.0
+2029,fuel_duty,45125.56573567095,45125.56573567095,0.0
+2029,tax_credits,5682.515596333218,5656.567814368341,25.947781964878082
+2029,universal_credit,87912.83786355042,87801.65622456431,111.18163898609924
+2029,child_benefit,16857.063952252585,16809.306644069908,47.75730818267822
+2029,state_pension,132446.50504959468,132663.80369090423,-217.2986413095703
+2029,pension_credit,6239.735857206298,6165.61580016285,74.12005704344749
+2030,income_tax,367081.0083849407,367114.8418567441,33.833471803405764
+2030,national_insurance,62611.38354587946,63411.14844326598,799.7648973865204
+2030,vat,221022.3838654562,221022.3838654562,0.0
+2030,council_tax,77210.71335799992,77210.71335799992,0.0
+2030,fuel_duty,47578.74239954073,47578.74239954073,0.0
+2030,tax_credits,5803.93303676049,5773.654437884992,30.278598875496865
+2030,universal_credit,89749.45900276749,89492.85746436992,256.60153839756777
+2030,child_benefit,17278.36202601888,17222.61199670249,55.75002931639099
+2030,state_pension,135881.71015803205,136105.63123261754,-223.92107458551024
+2030,pension_credit,5770.899498894896,5687.848066462216,83.05143243268108

public/data/distributional_impact.csv

@@ -1,56 +1,56 @@
-year,decile,absolute_change,relative_change
-2026,1st,0.0,0.0
-2026,2nd,0.0,0.0
-2026,3rd,0.0,0.0
-2026,4th,0.0,0.0
-2026,5th,0.0,0.0
-2026,6th,0.0,0.0
-2026,7th,0.0,0.0
-2026,8th,0.0,0.0
-2026,9th,0.0,0.0
-2026,10th,0.0,0.0
-2026,All,0.0,0.0
-2027,1st,0.0,0.0
-2027,2nd,0.0,0.0
-2027,3rd,0.0,0.0
-2027,4th,0.0,0.0
-2027,5th,0.0,0.0
-2027,6th,0.0,0.0
-2027,7th,0.0,0.0
-2027,8th,0.0,0.0
-2027,9th,0.0,0.0
-2027,10th,0.0,0.0
-2027,All,0.0,0.0
-2028,1st,0.0,0.0
-2028,2nd,0.0,0.0
-2028,3rd,0.0,0.0
-2028,4th,0.0,0.0
-2028,5th,0.0,0.0
-2028,6th,0.0,0.0
-2028,7th,0.0,0.0
-2028,8th,0.0,0.0
-2028,9th,0.0,0.0
-2028,10th,0.0,0.0
-2028,All,0.0,0.0
-2029,1st,0.0,0.0
-2029,2nd,0.0,0.0
-2029,3rd,0.0,0.0
-2029,4th,0.0,0.0
-2029,5th,0.0,0.0
-2029,6th,0.0,0.0
-2029,7th,0.0,0.0
-2029,8th,0.0,0.0
-2029,9th,0.0,0.0
-2029,10th,0.0,0.0
-2029,All,0.0,0.0
-2030,1st,0.0,0.0
-2030,2nd,0.0,0.0
-2030,3rd,0.0,0.0
-2030,4th,0.0,0.0
-2030,5th,0.0,0.0
-2030,6th,0.0,0.0
-2030,7th,0.0,0.0
-2030,8th,0.0,0.0
-2030,9th,0.0,0.0
-2030,10th,0.0,0.0
-2030,All,0.0,0.0
+year,decile,absolute_change_nominal,absolute_change_real,relative_change_nominal,relative_change_real
+2026,1st,0.8,0.8,0.004,0.004
+2026,2nd,0.91,0.91,0.003,0.003
+2026,3rd,-0.4,-0.4,-0.0011,-0.0011
+2026,4th,-0.71,-0.71,-0.0017,-0.0017
+2026,5th,-0.31,-0.31,-0.0007,-0.0007
+2026,6th,-0.24,-0.24,-0.0005,-0.0005
+2026,7th,0.12,0.12,0.0002,0.0002
+2026,8th,2.27,2.27,0.0034,0.0034
+2026,9th,6.03,6.03,0.0083,0.0083
+2026,10th,-133.24,-133.24,-0.1061,-0.1061
+2026,All,-12.6,-12.6,-0.0233,-0.0233
+2027,1st,-1.86,2.15,-0.0091,0.0108
+2027,2nd,-4.87,1.32,-0.0156,0.0043
+2027,3rd,-7.93,-0.46,-0.0212,-0.0012
+2027,4th,-8.27,0.37,-0.0191,0.0009
+2027,5th,-8.51,0.76,-0.0183,0.0017
+2027,6th,-5.5,4.99,-0.0104,0.0096
+2027,7th,-8.21,2.99,-0.0145,0.0054
+2027,8th,-2.83,10.32,-0.0042,0.0157
+2027,9th,2.31,16.71,0.0031,0.0231
+2027,10th,215.04,235.77,0.1685,0.1885
+2027,All,17.32,27.72,0.0315,0.0515
+2028,1st,-2.34,9.48,-0.0114,0.048
+2028,2nd,-6.29,11.92,-0.02,0.0394
+2028,3rd,-9.98,12.22,-0.0261,0.0333
+2028,4th,-9.5,16.04,-0.0215,0.0379
+2028,5th,-11.09,16.33,-0.0234,0.0359
+2028,6th,-7.13,24.0,-0.0132,0.0462
+2028,7th,-11.27,21.93,-0.0196,0.0398
+2028,8th,-6.48,32.48,-0.0096,0.0498
+2028,9th,-6.72,36.32,-0.009,0.0504
+2028,10th,45.12,118.05,0.0345,0.0939
+2028,All,-2.41,29.54,-0.0043,0.0551
+2029,1st,-3.38,16.21,-0.0162,0.0827
+2029,2nd,-8.95,21.44,-0.0279,0.071
+2029,3rd,-13.32,23.49,-0.0344,0.0645
+2029,4th,-11.85,30.33,-0.0266,0.0723
+2029,5th,-13.98,31.81,-0.0289,0.0699
+2029,6th,-9.44,42.08,-0.0172,0.0817
+2029,7th,-13.57,41.4,-0.0233,0.0756
+2029,8th,-7.53,56.65,-0.011,0.0879
+2029,9th,-9.85,61.77,-0.0129,0.086
+2029,10th,-106.31,23.86,-0.0798,0.019
+2029,All,-19.66,34.26,-0.0347,0.0642
+2030,1st,-11.24,8.73,-0.0536,0.0451
+2030,2nd,-17.71,13.23,-0.0545,0.0441
+2030,3rd,-21.49,16.01,-0.0546,0.0441
+2030,4th,-19.37,23.19,-0.043,0.0557
+2030,5th,-21.09,25.36,-0.0429,0.0558
+2030,6th,-14.06,38.49,-0.0249,0.0738
+2030,7th,-18.37,36.55,-0.0313,0.0674
+2030,8th,-8.13,55.96,-0.0117,0.0871
+2030,9th,-5.89,64.71,-0.0076,0.0911
+2030,10th,-244.06,-101.39,-0.1793,-0.0807
+2030,All,-38.21,17.25,-0.0663,0.0324

public/data/economic_forecast.json

@@ -127,38 +127,6 @@
       "change": 0.0
     }
   ],
-  "per_capita_gdp": [
-    {
-      "year": 2026,
-      "previous": 3.3,
-      "updated": 2.9,
-      "change": -0.4
-    },
-    {
-      "year": 2027,
-      "previous": 3.3,
-      "updated": 3.2,
-      "change": -0.1
-    },
-    {
-      "year": 2028,
-      "previous": 3.0,
-      "updated": 3.1,
-      "change": 0.1
-    },
-    {
-      "year": 2029,
-      "previous": 2.9,
-      "updated": 3.0,
-      "change": 0.1
-    },
-    {
-      "year": 2030,
-      "previous": 3.1,
-      "updated": 3.1,
-      "change": 0.0
-    }
-  ],
   "social_rent": [
     {
       "year": 2026,