feat: add agf ID pathways

src/data/un-sdsn-cw/SDSN-CW-EXP-ID-2025.json

@@ -0,0 +1,76 @@
+{
+  "$schema": "http://pathways.rmi.org/schema/pathwayMetadata.v1.json",
+  "id": "UNSDSN-CW-EXP-ID-2025",
+  "publication": {
+    "title": {
+      "full": "ASEAN Green Future Project Phase 2.1 & 2.2 Report, Optimizing Indonesia's Power Sector Decarbonization"
+    },
+    "author": [
+      "Alin Halimatussadiah",
+      "Muhammad Yudha Pratama",
+      "Rafika Farah Maulia",
+      "Sarah Natalia Gultom",
+      "Ali Kafiyatullah"
+    ],
+    "publisher": {
+      "full": "Sustainable Development Solutions Network and ClimateWorks Centre",
+      "short": "UN SDSN, CW"
+    },
+    "year": 2025,
+    "links": [
+      {
+        "url": "https://files.unsdsn.org/Indonesia%20Phase%202.1%20%26%202.2%20Report%20-%20Finalised.pdf",
+        "description": "Report"
+      }
+    ]
+  },
+  "name": {
+    "full": "Existing Policy Scenario ID",
+    "short": "EXP ID"
+  },
+  "description": "Indonesia-specific current policies pathway. Slow decarbonization and fossil reliance through 2060.",
+  "geography": ["ID"],
+  "pathwayType": "Predictive",
+  "modelYearStart": 2019,
+  "modelYearEnd": 2060,
+  "ssp": "SSP2",
+  "sectors": [
+    {
+      "name": "Power",
+      "technologies": [
+        "Coal",
+        "Oil",
+        "Gas",
+        "Hydro",
+        "Wind",
+        "Solar",
+        "Biomass",
+        "Other"
+      ]
+    }
+  ],
+  "expertOverview": "#### Pathway Description\n\nThe Existing Policies Pathway (EXP) reflects a continuation of Indonesia’s currently implemented energy and electrification policies. It does not assume any acceleration beyond today’s mandates, nor does it incorporate early coal retirements or enhanced renewable energy deployment beyond those embedded in the National Electricity Supply Plan (RUKN). \n\nThe EXP produces an energy mix characterized by slow diversification. Coal-fired power plant capacity continues to expand in line with the RUKN, with no early retirement actions incorporated. Renewable energy capacity rises but not at a pace sufficient to structurally shift system reliance away from fossil fuels.\n\nThe ASEAN Green Future regional research project is run by the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network, Climateworks Centre, and local researchers from leading universities. The project develops national policy analysis and near-zero pathways that are meant to provide policy recommendations and support policy makers.\n\n#### Core Drivers\n\nThis pathway is shaped by moderate socioeconomic growth, limited policy intervention, and incremental technology shifts. \n\n*Policies:* Existing policies and regulations guide system development, but they do not provide sufficient incentives to accelerate coal phaseout or catalyze large-scale renewable deployment.\n\n*Socioeconomic trends:* Demand growth is led by residential and services sectors, while industrial electrification remains limited, resulting in modest overall system transformation.\n\n#### Application to Transition Assessment\n\nThe EXP serves as a conservative reference case that enables financial institutions to understand corporate exposure in a slow-transition environment. The pathway is particularly relevant for evaluating technology and market feasibility in the current environment if existing trends persist. \n\nAlignment of investments with the EXP implies alignment with the status quo. This sets a floor on the level of ambition for companies in Indonesia, and could highlight potential transition risks for companies moving even slower than this pathway projects. Likewise, the EXP can indicate where companies are moving well ahead of what is projected in the current environment, and flag potential risks from the current lack of supportive policies.",
+  "metric": [
+    "Emissions Intensity",
+    "Absolute Emissions",
+    "Capacity",
+    "Generation",
+    "Technology Mix"
+  ],
+  "keyFeatures": {
+    "emissionsTrajectory": "Moderate decrease",
+    "energyEfficiency": "No information",
+    "energyDemand": "No information",
+    "electrification": "No information",
+    "policyTypes": ["Target technology shares"],
+    "technologyCostTrend": "No information",
+    "technologyDeploymentTrend": "No new technologies deployed",
+    "emissionsScope": "CO2e (Kyoto)",
+    "policyAmbition": "Current and drafted policies",
+    "technologyCostsDetail": "No information",
+    "newTechnologiesIncluded": ["No new technologies"],
+    "supplyChain": "No information",
+    "investmentNeeds": "No information",
+    "infrastructureRequirements": "No information"
+  }
+}

src/data/un-sdsn-cw/SDSN-CW-MAP-ID-2025.json

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+{
+  "$schema": "http://pathways.rmi.org/schema/pathwayMetadata.v1.json",
+  "id": "UNSDSN-CW-MAP-ID-2025",
+  "publication": {
+    "title": {
+      "full": "ASEAN Green Future Project Phase 2.1 & 2.2 Report, Optimizing Indonesia's Power Sector Decarbonization"
+    },
+    "author": [
+      "Alin Halimatussadiah",
+      "Muhammad Yudha Pratama",
+      "Rafika Farah Maulia",
+      "Sarah Natalia Gultom",
+      "Ali Kafiyatullah"
+    ],
+    "publisher": {
+      "full": "Sustainable Development Solutions Network and ClimateWorks Centre",
+      "short": "UN SDSN, CW"
+    },
+    "year": 2025,
+    "links": [
+      {
+        "url": "https://files.unsdsn.org/Indonesia%20Phase%202.1%20%26%202.2%20Report%20-%20Finalised.pdf",
+        "description": "Report"
+      }
+    ]
+  },
+  "name": {
+    "full": "More Ambitious Pathway ID",
+    "short": "MAP ID"
+  },
+  "description": "Indonesia-specific high-ambition pathway that achieves a near-zero emissions power system by 2060.",
+  "geography": ["ID"],
+  "pathwayType": "Normative",
+  "modelYearStart": 2019,
+  "modelYearEnd": 2060,
+  "ssp": "SSP2",
+  "sectors": [
+    {
+      "name": "Power",
+      "technologies": [
+        "Coal",
+        "Oil",
+        "Gas",
+        "Nuclear",
+        "Hydro",
+        "Wind",
+        "Solar",
+        "Biomass",
+        "Other"
+      ]
+    }
+  ],
+  "expertOverview": "#### Pathway Description\n\nThe More Ambitious Pathway (MAP) reflects a decarbonization trajectory with accelerated electrification, strengthened national policy targets for renewable deployment and emissions reduction, and explicit coal-retirement expectations. This scenario blends strengthened national policy aspirations with assumptions about how the power system would evolve given technology costs and resource availability.\n\nIndustrial electricity consumption grows substantially by 2060 driven by extensive sectoral electrification and rising economic activity, reflecting deep process electrification. In response, the power system undergoes extensive structural transformation. MAP mobilizes large-scale renewable energy growth. Solar, hydropower, and nuclear dominate the supply mix. Coal declines at a rate of 10% annually from 2020, fully exiting the system by 2060. Natural gas capacity likewise reaches zero by 2060, resulting in a zero emissions power grid.\n\nThe ASEAN Green Future regional research project is run by the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network, Climateworks Centre, and local researchers from leading universities. The project develops national policy analysis and near-zero pathways that are meant to provide policy recommendations and support policy makers.\n\n#### Core Drivers\n\n*Technology:* Large-scale investment in solar, hydro, and nuclear reshapes the sector’s generation mix. Solar grows at an average annual rate of 39% through 2030. Nuclear emerges as a major baseload generation source, accounting for 23% of generation by 2060. Coal generation declines progressively from 2020 onward under MAP, following an assumed phaseout trajectory that results in complete retirement by 2060.\n\n*Emissions:* MAP embeds emission constraints through mandated coal phaseout trajectories, accelerated renewable deployment, and a requirement to reach zero power generation emissions by 2060. These shape investment and retirement decisions across the system, moving the system away from fossil generation and ensuring that the technology mix evolves in line with Indonesia’s long-term decarbonization ambitions.\n\n#### Application to Transition Assessment\n\nMAP is suited for evaluating the ambition of corporate transition strategies. Financial institutions can use MAP as the benchmark for determining whether companies are positioning themselves in line with a rapid transition rather than Indonesia’s formal policy trajectory. \n\nMAP serves as a high ambition benchmark against which investment pipelines can be evaluated. Companies whose planned investments align with MAP signal readiness for a future in which markets and policy environments shift toward decarbonization. Conversely, investment pipelines dominated by long-lived fossil assets, limited renewable expansion, or insufficient grid-enabling technologies would appear structurally misaligned, indicating heightened transition risk, stranded-asset exposure, or future cost disadvantages should the sector move toward an accelerated transition.",
+  "metric": [
+    "Emissions Intensity",
+    "Absolute Emissions",
+    "Capacity",
+    "Generation",
+    "Technology Mix"
+  ],
+  "keyFeatures": {
+    "emissionsTrajectory": "Significant decrease",
+    "energyEfficiency": "No information",
+    "energyDemand": "No information",
+    "electrification": "No information",
+    "policyTypes": ["Phaseout dates", "Target technology shares"],
+    "technologyCostTrend": "No information",
+    "technologyDeploymentTrend": "No new technologies deployed",
+    "emissionsScope": "CO2e (Kyoto)",
+    "policyAmbition": "Normative/Optimization-based",
+    "technologyCostsDetail": "No information",
+    "newTechnologiesIncluded": ["No new technologies"],
+    "supplyChain": "No information",
+    "investmentNeeds": "No information",
+    "infrastructureRequirements": "No information"
+  }
+}

src/data/un-sdsn-cw/SDSN-CW-OEXP-ID-2025.json

@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@
+{
+  "$schema": "http://pathways.rmi.org/schema/pathwayMetadata.v1.json",
+  "id": "UNSDSN-CW-OEXP-ID-2025",
+  "publication": {
+    "title": {
+      "full": "ASEAN Green Future Project Phase 2.1 & 2.2 Report, Optimizing Indonesia's Power Sector Decarbonization"
+    },
+    "author": [
+      "Alin Halimatussadiah",
+      "Muhammad Yudha Pratama",
+      "Rafika Farah Maulia",
+      "Sarah Natalia Gultom",
+      "Ali Kafiyatullah"
+    ],
+    "publisher": {
+      "full": "Sustainable Development Solutions Network and ClimateWorks Centre",
+      "short": "UN SDSN, CW"
+    },
+    "year": 2025,
+    "links": [
+      {
+        "url": "https://files.unsdsn.org/Indonesia%20Phase%202.1%20%26%202.2%20Report%20-%20Finalised.pdf",
+        "description": "Report"
+      }
+    ]
+  },
+  "name": {
+    "full": "Optimized Existing Policy Scenario ID",
+    "short": "OEXP ID"
+  },
+  "description": "Indonesia least-cost current policies pathway. Early coal retirements but slow decarbonization.",
+  "geography": ["ID"],
+  "pathwayType": "Normative",
+  "modelYearStart": 2019,
+  "modelYearEnd": 2060,
+  "ssp": "SSP2",
+  "sectors": [
+    {
+      "name": "Power",
+      "technologies": [
+        "Coal",
+        "Oil",
+        "Gas",
+        "Nuclear",
+        "Hydro",
+        "Wind",
+        "Solar",
+        "Biomass",
+        "Other"
+      ]
+    }
+  ],
+  "expertOverview": "#### Pathway Description\n\nThe Optimized Existing Policies Pathway (OEXP) models how Indonesia’s power sector would evolve if system developments were guided solely by least-cost optimization within the bounds of the country’s current policy environment. OEXP has the same policy constraints as the complementary Existing Policy Pathway (EXP) from the same developers, but the introduction of cost optimization results in different outcomes.\n\nUnlike the non-optimized pathway (EXP), OEXP results in the retirement of coal-fired power plants by 2030 because of declining economic competitiveness. However, coal re-enters the generation mix in 2033 in a limited role as an inexpensive backup source, indicating reliability constraints and underscoring gaps in renewable integration and storage. By 2060, hydropower becomes the dominant generation source, replacing solar as the most competitive option due to its higher capacity factor and dependable baseload characteristics. Levelized cost of electricity declines marginally relative to the EXP due to greater renewable deployment.\n\nThe ASEAN Green Future regional research project is run by the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network, Climateworks Centre, and local researchers from leading universities. The project develops national policy analysis and near-zero pathways that are meant to provide policy recommendations and support policy makers.\n\n#### Core Drivers\n\n*Technology mix and cost:* Least-cost optimization drives the OEXP pathway, with technologies selected based on the lowest combination of capital costs, fuel costs, and lifecycle operating costs. Solar becomes cost-attractive due to falling capital costs, but hydropower ultimately dominates because of its high capacity factor which makes it more economically efficient for system reliability. Coal retains a limited role for grid balancing as progress is slow in scaling batteries and pumped-storage hydro.\n\n#### Application to Transition Assessment\n\nOEXP provides a view for assessing financial feasibility and the outlook for cost competitiveness of different generation technologies (note that market and contractual constraints mean the least-cost pathway is not necessarily the most feasible or likely). The pathway demonstrates that even without policy changes, market forces alone can render coal economically non-viable from a cost perspective. This insight is especially valuable for financial institutions evaluating stranded-asset risk or assessing whether corporate capital plans overstate the long-term economic role of coal.\n\nThe OEXP results also enhance technology feasibility assessments by clarifying which technologies outperform others on a cost basis (with the selected cost assumptions). Firms relying on long-lived fossil generation or slow adoption of renewables may face structural cost disadvantages under a cost optimized system. Finally, OEXP helps highlight where structural gaps, such as battery storage, create constraints that companies must actively manage.\n\nThe OEXP results provide system-level insights into generation mix evolution, capacity changes, emissions reductions, and cost outcomes under least-cost optimization, but they do not include asset-level build schedules or project-specific retirement timelines. As a result, the outputs offer a high-level view of how the power system would reconfigure itself when guided solely by economic considerations, rather than a detailed infrastructure roadmap.",
+  "metric": [
+    "Emissions Intensity",
+    "Absolute Emissions",
+    "Capacity",
+    "Generation",
+    "Technology Mix"
+  ],
+  "keyFeatures": {
+    "emissionsTrajectory": "Significant decrease",
+    "energyEfficiency": "No information",
+    "energyDemand": "No information",
+    "electrification": "No information",
+    "policyTypes": ["Target technology shares"],
+    "technologyCostTrend": "Decrease",
+    "technologyDeploymentTrend": "Minor technology deployment",
+    "emissionsScope": "CO2e (Kyoto)",
+    "policyAmbition": "Current and drafted policies",
+    "technologyCostsDetail": "Capital costs, O&M, etc.",
+    "newTechnologiesIncluded": ["Battery storage"],
+    "supplyChain": "Exogenous input or fuel price",
+    "investmentNeeds": "No information",
+    "infrastructureRequirements": "No information"
+  }
+}