Author: Sandra (Yijia) Cai
Published: July 2, 2025
This white paper argues that Bayes' Theorem, a foundational concept in probability theory developed by mathematician Thomas Bayes in 1763, offers the most rigorous and rational framework for everyday decision-making (probably the best one).
The paper walks through:
- The mathematical foundations of conditional probability and Bayes' Theorem
- Two practical scenarios (alcohol tolerance, elevator safety) that demonstrate Bayesian reasoning
- An interpretation of posterior probability, prior probability, and likelihood
- Applications to conspiracy theory, scientific reasoning, and the Generalization of Bayesian Theory
"It is probably the most possible rational way for human beings to reach an iteration-friendly best-optimal decision making process."
Good ideas get better with more eyes on them. This repo is open for the community to suggest improvements, whether that's tightening the math, clarifying an explanation, fixing a typo, or proposing new real-world scenarios.
See CONTRIBUTING.md for full guidelines on submitting edits and suggestions.
Quick version:
- Fork this repo
- Make your edits on a new branch
- Open a Pull Request with a clear description of your changes
All contributions are welcome, from grammar fixes to substantive additions.
This work is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
You are free to share and adapt the material as long as appropriate credit is given.