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Steve Neal edited this page Dec 10, 2025 · 2 revisions

Regime Wavefunction & Expectation

Regime wavefunction describes the probability amplitudes of Bitcoin's possible regimes: Compression (C), Ascent (A), Starvation (S), Distribution (D).

Expectation is the weighted average of regime outcomes.

Regimes

  • 🟥 Compression: Alternatives eliminated
  • 🟦 Ascent: Chain seeking release
  • 🟩 Starvation: Producer scarcity shapes price
  • 🟨 Distribution: Unwind channel opened

Regime Horizon (7d)

The deck shows: "Regime Horizon (7d): 26% ASCENT -> 26% COMPRESSION -> 25% STARVATION -> 23% DISTRIBUTION"

This is the expected regime sequence over the next week, based on current amplitudes.

CHAINWALK — The chain leads price. Bitcoin doesn’t drift — it releases.

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