Split-ecoregion Random Forest ML model predicting Pleistocene megafauna fossil localities from USGS terrain, SGMC lithology, and PBDB/iDigBio occurrence data.
Target E02 (46.3003°N, 120.1336°W) was predicted as the #1 east target before any knowledge of existing dig sites. March 2026: active Columbian mammoth excavation confirmed at McBones Coyote Canyon near Kennewick, WA. LiDAR TPI independently confirms valley floor geometry at the predicted pixel. Three methods. One answer.
| Latitude | Longitude | TPI | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IceWave E02 | 46.3003°N | 120.1336°W | -5.4m ▼ | ML model only |
| McBones Coyote Canyon | ~46.30°N | ~120.1°W | — | Active excavation |
| LiDAR DTM confirmation | 46.3003°N | 120.1336°W | -5.4m | USGS 3DEP 15m |
Mammoth killed ~17,000 years ago — drowned in a Missoula Flood event, deposited as slack-water receded. Exactly the depositional geometry the model learned to find.
At 30m resolution, nearly every east target showed slope=0, TRI=0 — indistinguishable. Topographic Position Index (TPI) at 15m resolution from USGS 3DEP measures how much higher or lower a pixel is than its 3km neighborhood, cleanly separating Missoula Flood valley floors from ridge artifacts.
13 of 20 east targets confirmed as genuine valley floor / channel zones.
46.3003°N, 120.1336°W · TPI=-5.4m · 18.95km² channel zone · score=1.000
LEFT: Bare-earth hillshade with blue channel zones (18.95km²) — the entire Yakima/Kennewick corridor lights up. CENTER: TPI map — deep blue confirms the valley floor position. RIGHT: Slope — flat agricultural plain with steep Yakima Ridge scarp to the north. Star = predicted target, confirmed by McBones dig within miles.
47.5086°N, 121.1892°W · TPI=-250.1m · Wenatchee/Entiat corridor · score=0.478
TPI=-250m is the most topographically enclosed position in the entire dataset. This target sits at the bottom of a deeply incised river valley — the kind of geometry where Missoula Flood slack-water would have pooled and concentrated sediment for thousands of years. The v3 model scored this 0.478 on terrain alone; v4 +TPI re-ranks it significantly higher.
42.4669°N, 117.9392°W · TPI=-3.2m · Owyhee Basin, SE Oregon · 32.39km² channel · score=0.616
32.39km² of connected channel zone — the largest slack-water footprint in the dataset. SE Oregon Basin & Range playa environment. Actively eroding terrain, surface prospecting feasible. The broad blue zone on the hillshade panel shows the scale of the paleolake/flood deposit. High-clearance 4WD required, nearest services 50+ miles.
| Version | Region | AUC | n | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| v3 | West | 0.890 ± 0.105 | 35 | ★ Active — Willamette / Puget Sound |
| v3 | East | 0.846 ± 0.073 | 40 | ◆ Active — Columbia Basin / Owyhee |
| v4 | East | LOO 36/40 (90%) | 40 | ◆ Active — +TPI, LOO validated |
| v2 | East | 0.566 ± 0.121 | 17 | retired |
| v1 | Both | 0.853 ± 0.063 | 78 | retired |
- Cascade split: -121.5°W — separate west (maritime) and east (semi-arid) models
- Composite score: 80% ML probability + 20% SGMC lithology score
- East training: PBDB 5-state harvest (WA, OR, NV, ID, MT), background ratio 8:1
- Features v3: elevation, slope, aspect, TRI, TWI, lith_score
- Features v4: + tpi_15m (USGS 3DEP 15m, 1500m neighborhood)
| Rank | Latitude | Longitude | Score | Waypoint |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W01 | 45.1753°N | 122.8419°W | 1.000 | IW-W01 |
| W02 | 45.2614°N | 122.9253°W | 0.993 | IW-W02 |
| W03 | 45.3003°N | 122.6753°W | 0.991 | IW-W03 |
| W04 | 45.3447°N | 122.6336°W | 0.989 | IW-W04 |
| W05 | 45.4253°N | 122.8836°W | 0.986 | IW-W05 |
| Rank | Latitude | Longitude | Score | TPI | Tier | Waypoint |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E02 ✓ | 46.3003°N | 120.1336°W | 1.000 | -5.4m | 1A | IW-E02 |
| E03 | 46.6753°N | 117.7586°W | 1.000 | -86.3m | 1B | IW-E03 |
| E04 | 46.6336°N | 117.3836°W | 0.994 | -106.2m | 1B | IW-E04 |
| E05 | 46.3558°N | 120.5364°W | 0.994 | +0.1m | 2 | IW-E05 |
| E15 | 47.9531°N | 117.8003°W | 0.814 | -15.6m | 1A | IW-E15 |
| E16 | 47.9253°N | 117.3558°W | 0.814 | -6.7m | 1B | IW-E16 |
| E18 | 42.6892°N | 120.5364°W | 0.657 | -15.3m | 1A | IW-E18 |
| E19 | 42.4669°N | 117.9392°W | 0.616 | -3.2m | 1A | IW-E19 |
| E20 | 44.5503°N | 117.4253°W | 0.508 | -97.9m | 1B | IW-E20 |
| E21 | 47.5086°N | 121.1892°W | 0.478 | -250.1m | 1B | IW-E21 |
| Tier | Targets | Criteria | Field Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | E02★, E15, E18, E19, E27, E34, E40 | Valley floor + in channel + area >15km² | Top priority |
| 1B | E03, E04, E16, E20, E21, E23 | Valley floor + in channel | High priority |
| 2 | E05, E25, E26 | Flat plain, large channel nearby | Monitor for exposure events |
| X | E29, E31, E32, E35 | Positive TPI — ridge/slope artifact | Deprioritized |
Extreme basins: E21 (TPI -250m) · E20 (-98m) · E04 (-106m) · E03 (-86m)
project_ice_wave/
├── notebooks/
│ ├── 01_data_harvest.ipynb # PBDB + iDigBio 5-state harvest
│ ├── 02_feature_engineering.ipynb # USGS 3DEP + SGMC features
│ ├── 03_west_model.ipynb # West RF, AUC 0.890
│ ├── 04_east_model_improvement.ipynb # East RF v3, AUC 0.846 (+0.280)
│ ├── 05_lidar_terrain_analysis.ipynb # LiDAR TPI, 20/25 east targets
│ └── 06_east_model_v4_tpi.ipynb # East RF v4, +TPI feature
├── data/
│ ├── model/
│ │ ├── icewave_v3_top50.csv # 50 ranked targets
│ │ ├── icewave_v3_top50_lidar.csv # + LiDAR TPI columns
│ │ ├── icewave_v4_top50.csv # + v4 re-ranked scores
│ │ ├── icewave_rf_west.joblib # West RF model
│ │ ├── icewave_rf_east_v3.joblib # East RF v3
│ │ └── icewave_rf_east_v4.joblib # East RF v4 (+TPI)
│ ├── pbdb/
│ │ ├── icewave_east_expanded.csv # 40 east training points
│ │ └── icewave_east_tpi_cache.csv # TPI values cache
│ └── lidar/
│ └── E##_dtm.tif # GeoTIFF DTMs (EPSG:4326, ~15m)
├── outputs/
│ ├── icewave_v3_targets.kmz # Google Earth (cyan=west, yellow=east)
│ ├── icewave_v3_targets.gpx # GPS waypoints IW-W## / IW-E##
│ ├── IceWave_Field_Report_v4_lidar.pdf # Field report with LiDAR maps
│ ├── lidar_E##.png # Hillshade/TPI/slope maps
│ ├── tpi_distribution.png # TPI presence vs background
│ └── feature_importance_v4.png # v4 feature importance chart
└── README.md
Note: USGS SGMC geology shapefiles not included (>1GB). Download from USGS SGMC and place in
data/geology/SGMC/.
Open outputs/icewave_v3_targets.kmz — cyan pins = west ★, yellow pins = east ◆. Click any pin for coordinates, score, and TPI classification.
- Go to kepler.gl
- Upload
data/model/icewave_v3_top50_lidar.csv - Color by
composite_norm→ size bytpi_15m(invert: more negative = larger) - Switch basemap to satellite
The data/lidar/E##_dtm.tif files are fully georeferenced GeoTIFFs (EPSG:4326) — load directly as raster layers and they snap to the correct location.
Quick setup:
Layer → Add Raster Layer→ select anyE##_dtm.tifLayer Properties → Symbology → Render type: Hillshadefor terrain texture- Or
Render type: Singleband pseudocolor→ RdBu ramp, min=-50 max=+50 for TPI view Layer → Add Vector Layer→ loadicewave_v3_targets.kmzfor target pins- Add satellite basemap via QuickMapServices plugin → Google Satellite
Layer order (bottom to top): Google Satellite → DTM rasters → KMZ targets → Labels
Load outputs/icewave_v3_targets.gpx into Garmin BaseCamp or directly onto device.
Waypoints: IW-W01–IW-W25 and IW-E02–IW-E42
PRPA PERMIT REQUIRED for all vertebrate fossil collection on federal land. Unpermitted collection is a federal crime — fines up to $20,000 and/or imprisonment.
- Verify land ownership before entry: BLM GeoCommunicator
- Do not disturb McBones Coyote Canyon — active permitted excavation. Tours available at mcbones.org · 509-438-9417
- Remote terrain: carry 4L water/person/day, satellite communicator, first aid, paper maps. File a trip plan.
- Columbia Basin targets (E02–E05) are buried sites — do not expect surface exposure. Monitor gravel pit operations, road construction, irrigation canal work in the 800–1,200ft elevation band.
| State | BLM Contact |
|---|---|
| OR / WA | 503-808-6002 |
| NV | 775-861-6400 |
| ID | 208-373-4000 |
| MT | 406-896-5000 |
| Species | Common Name | Primary States |
|---|---|---|
| Mammuthus columbi | Columbian Mammoth | WA, OR, NV, ID |
| Mammuthus primigenius | Woolly Mammoth | WA, OR |
| Mammut americanum | American Mastodon | WA, OR |
| Equus sp. | Pleistocene Horse | WA, OR, NV, MT |
| Camelops hesternus | Yesterday's Camel | WA, OR, NV, ID |
| Paramylodon harlani | Harlan's Ground Sloth | OR, NV |
| Bison sp. | Pleistocene Bison | WA, OR, NV, ID |
| Arctodus simus | Short-faced Bear | WA, OR, NV, MT |
- Project PaleoWave — Nevada/Great Basin predecessor · RF AUC 0.906
- McBones Coyote Canyon — Active E02 validation dig · Kennewick, WA
- PBDB — Paleobiology Database
- iDigBio — Integrated Digitized Biocollections
- USGS 3DEP — Elevation data source
- USGS SGMC — Lithology data source
Project IceWave v4 · March 2026 West AUC 0.890 ★ · East AUC 0.846 ◆ · E02 Validated ✓ · LiDAR TPI 13/20 Valley Floor