Predicting impacts of praying mantids using fuzzy interaction webs
Developing tools for rapidly predicting which introduced species will become invasive is essential for effective management. It’s also notoriously difficult. Quantitative models exist but often require extensive data, precluding timely application. Fuzzy Interaction Webs (FIW), a qualitative modeling approach, offer a practical alternative. FIWs hold the potential to predict impacts, guide early responses, and identify research needs using the limited data commonly available on an invasion front. As a case study, we applied FIW to a European praying mantis (Mantis religiosa) invasion in grassland communities of western Montana, USA. Modeling was done using the MPG Matrix online tool
- Mantid observations. See where mantids have been observed in western Montana and how many have been seen in recent years. These data are from iNaturalist's citizen scientists.
- Mantid FIW parameters. Read a summary of how we obtained mantid abundance and interaction strength estimates.
- Predicted impacts of mantids on native species vary, but are severe at high mantid abundances. Periodic cold snaps and parasitoids may dampen impacts.
Two baseline FIWs were created to test nine scenarios. Scenarios 1-4 test the effects of increased mantid abundance on the grassland community. Scenarios 5-9 test the effects of winter severity and parasitoid wasps on mantid populations. Link to the scenarios on the MPG Matrix below. Reference the How To Use guide, accessible from the website header, and the FAQ sheet to duplicate and modify the FIWs.
Pre-invasion baseline FIW: Experiments varying mantid abundance; impacts on native grassland community
Post-invasion baseline FIW: Experiments varying winter severity and natural enemies of mantids; impacts on mantids and ramifying effects
- No Cold Snaps, No Wasps
- Four Cold Snaps, No Wasps
- No Cold Snaps, 6X Wasps
- Two Cold Snaps, 6X Wasps
- Four Cold Snaps, 6X Wasps
- Source and analysis of weather data used to examine the potential for climate to affect mantid populations
