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86ed0fd
Merge pull request #1 from ecmwf-projects/feature/md
enyfeo Nov 13, 2025
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Add Bootstrap for internal user
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myst
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mystl
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mystl
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Update Francesca's Changes in notebook
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Merge pull request #3 from ecmwf-projects/feature/md2
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0592ecc
Fix Tip in trainer
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Merge pull request #5 from ecmwf-projects/feature/md2
enyfeo Nov 27, 2025
d5abe42
ciao!
fdg10371 Nov 27, 2025
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Merge pull request #6 from ecmwf-projects/feature/md2
enyfeo Nov 27, 2025
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Merge pull request #7 from ecmwf-projects/develop
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Add Climate files
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updated MD
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Merge pull request #8 from ecmwf-projects/feature/md2
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typo fix
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Merge branch 'develop' into feature/Active_Fires
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Merge pull request #10 from ecmwf-projects/feature/maca1
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54573f3
added forecasting
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Merge pull request #11 from ecmwf-projects/fdg1
enyfeo Nov 27, 2025
7fbb475
Added ignitions and fires
joemcnorton Nov 27, 2025
63824db
update training documentation
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fad8fe1
Updated forecast
joemcnorton Dec 1, 2025
0ecb0d6
Link in getting started
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096c1e1
Add Site for POF
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Update title in forecasting
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Merge pull request #12 from ecmwf-projects/feature/site
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Merge branch 'develop' into JRM
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Merge branch 'develop' into JRM
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Merge pull request #13 from ecmwf-projects/JRM
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Update images for White background,
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Test link issue
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Test link issue
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Test link issue
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Test link issue
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enyfeo Dec 8, 2025
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plotting update2
joemcnorton Dec 8, 2025
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Change tip to note
enyfeo Dec 8, 2025
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joemcnorton Dec 8, 2025
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Merge branch 'develop' of github.com:ecmwf-projects/AI-Probability-of…
joemcnorton Dec 8, 2025
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1 change: 1 addition & 0 deletions .gitattributes
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
*.ipynb filter=nbstripout
4 changes: 3 additions & 1 deletion .github/workflows/deploy.yml
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -37,12 +37,14 @@ jobs:
node-version: 18.x
- name: Install Jupyter Book (via myst)
run: npm install -g jupyter-book
working-directory: handbook
- name: Build HTML Assets
run: jupyter-book build --html
working-directory: handbook
- name: Upload artifact
uses: actions/upload-pages-artifact@v3
with:
path: './_build/html'
path: './handbook/_build/html'
- name: Deploy to GitHub Pages
id: deployment
uses: actions/deploy-pages@v4
3 changes: 2 additions & 1 deletion .gitignore
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@@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
handbook/data
handbook/outputs

**/.ipynb_checkpoints/
**/.DS_Store
# MyST build outputs
_build
31 changes: 20 additions & 11 deletions README.md
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Expand Up @@ -4,21 +4,30 @@
</picture>
</p>

# ECMWF - Probability of Fire (POF) Model Pipeline
# Getting started

This repository contains three main scripts representing the end-to-end workflow for generating, training, and forecasting Probability of Fire (POF) using environmental and human
datasets. The model framework is based around the operation Sparky-PoF system used by ECMWF.
In this book, we will show how you can create your own version of the Probability of Fire (PoF) system. A pof in a box!

Building the environment
Before you begin, please note that the workflow presented here is not intended to reproduce the exact operational system currently running at ECMWF. Instead, it provides a simplified sequence of steps designed to help you get started.
The notebook can only be used with past forecasts—it will generate a tool that allows you to explore and analyse previous forecast data.
That said, we believe this provides a valuable starting point: a complete, working system built entirely from data that are publicly available through the Climate Data Store (CDS) or accessible via temporary data repositories linked within this notebook.

conda env create -f environment.yml
conda activate POF_IN_A_BOX

Building the Jupyter Book
<!-- ![](./PICS/PoF-in-a-box.png) -->
<p class="credits">CC BY-NC-SA</p>


## Building the environment
```
conda env create -f environment.yml
conda activate POF_IN_A_BOX
```
## Building the Jupyter Book
```
rm -rf _build
jupyter-book build

Visualising the book locally.

jupyter-book start
```
## Visualising the book locally.
```
jupyter-book start
```
11 changes: 11 additions & 0 deletions bootstrap.sh
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mkdir -p handbook/data/CLIMATE
set -x
for f in 10U 10V D2M T2M WS;do
curl -u ecbox:1hHfYAwUtuzVbSXFHaDVlzNrKDttMwT2RBA0L95Cvr32pgzpsWAoybmjTgJkgeRpcyz3NybnWfd31GWdmOTQBBDXkSRVKTvXGoQkXEXMVPnErYNnQ8V https://sites.ecmwf.int/ecbox/POF_IN_A_BOX/s/dav/data/${f}_2003_01.nc --output handbook/data/${f}_2003_01.nc
done
for f in DFMC LFMC FUEL;do
curl -u ecbox:1hHfYAwUtuzVbSXFHaDVlzNrKDttMwT2RBA0L95Cvr32pgzpsWAoybmjTgJkgeRpcyz3NybnWfd31GWdmOTQBBDXkSRVKTvXGoQkXEXMVPnErYNnQ8V https://sites.ecmwf.int/ecbox/POF_IN_A_BOX/s/dav/data/${f}_MAP_2003_01_R.nc --output handbook/data/${f}_2003_01_R.nc
done
for f in POP_2020.nc_2 road_density_2015_c.nc_2 landcover_2015_c.nc_2;do
curl -u ecbox:1hHfYAwUtuzVbSXFHaDVlzNrKDttMwT2RBA0L95Cvr32pgzpsWAoybmjTgJkgeRpcyz3NybnWfd31GWdmOTQBBDXkSRVKTvXGoQkXEXMVPnErYNnQ8V https://sites.ecmwf.int/ecbox/POF_IN_A_BOX/s/dav/data/CLIMATE/${f} --output handbook/data/CLIMATE/${f}
done
3 changes: 3 additions & 0 deletions bootstrap_ecmwf.sh
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ln -sf /perm/maca/POF_IN_A_BOX_data handbook/data


1 change: 1 addition & 0 deletions environment.yml
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Expand Up @@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ dependencies:
- xarray
- netcdf4
- cdsapi
- cartopy
- numpy
- joblib
- matplotlib
Expand Down
207 changes: 0 additions & 207 deletions handbook/.ipynb_checkpoints/PoF_Forecast-checkpoint.ipynb

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11 changes: 0 additions & 11 deletions handbook/.ipynb_checkpoints/Pof-In-a-box-checkpoint.md

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38 changes: 0 additions & 38 deletions handbook/.ipynb_checkpoints/index-checkpoint.md

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