Stablecoin Smart Money Heatmap

A data-driven tool to track stablecoin flows across blockchain ecosystems and identify "smart money" movements using DefiLlama data.

Thesis

• Stablecoins are the main liquidity leg in DeFi
• When stablecoin balances move between chains, it signals capital rotation into/out of ecosystems
• Concentration in reputable venues (Aave, Curve, Maker) vs random farms = proxy for "smart money" behavior
• Combining chain-level netflows + venue-level TVL gives early signals on where serious capital is rotating

Features

• Fetch historical stablecoin circulation data by chain
• Calculate netflows (inflows/outflows) to detect capital rotation
• Track TVL in major DeFi protocols (smart money venues)
• Generate smart money scores based on venue concentration × netflow strength
• Interactive heatmap visualizations showing chains over time
• Export data to CSV for custom analysis

Quick Start

Installation

pip install -r requirements.txt

Run Full Analysis

Generate all visualizations and metrics:

python3 main.py

Output saved to output/ directory:

• Interactive HTML heatmaps and charts
• CSV data files for further analysis

Ad-Hoc Analysis

Quick chain analysis:

# Analyze a single chain
python3 analyze.py --chain Ethereum

# Compare multiple chains
python3 analyze.py --compare Arbitrum Base Optimism

# Show top N chains
python3 analyze.py --top 10

Key Metrics Explained

Smart Money Score

Combines netflows (capital rotation) with concentration (% in major protocols).

High score = Strong inflows + High concentration in reputable venues (bullish signal)

Concentration Ratio

Percentage of stablecoins deposited in major protocols (Aave, MakerDAO, Uniswap, etc.) vs total stablecoin supply.

High concentration = More institutional/"smart" capital Low concentration = More retail/speculative activity

Netflows

Daily change in stablecoin supply, smoothed over 7-day window.

Positive = Inflows (capital entering the chain) Negative = Outflows (capital exiting the chain)

Current Findings (Jan 2026)

Top Smart Money Chains:

1. Arbitrum (15.4) - Strong inflows + 32% concentration
2. Avalanche (14.7) - Healthy growth + 31% concentration
3. Base (13.4) - Massive inflows + 25% concentration

Notable Trends:

• Base seeing explosive 37% annual growth
• Ethereum losing stables to L2s (-2.3% monthly)
• Solana experiencing -9.2% outflows
• Tron dominates supply ($84B) but zero DeFi usage

See RESULTS_SUMMARY.md for detailed analysis.

Project Structure

stablecoin-heatmap/
├── main.py              # Main analysis pipeline
├── analyze.py           # Quick analysis CLI
├── src/
│   ├── config.py        # Configuration
│   ├── api_client.py    # DefiLlama API client
│   ├── data_processor.py # Metrics calculation
│   └── visualizer.py    # Plotly visualizations
├── data/                # Cached API responses
└── output/              # Generated visualizations

Documentation

• QUICKSTART.md - Installation and usage guide
• RESULTS_SUMMARY.md - Latest analysis results
• PROJECT_STRUCTURE.md - Detailed technical documentation

Customization

Edit src/config.py to:

• Add/remove chains to track
• Change smart money protocols
• Adjust time windows and parameters

Data Sources

All data sourced from DefiLlama API

• Free and open API
• No authentication required
• Data cached locally for 6 hours