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Closes #97. Phase 1 of the uncertainty engine spike. Two tables per docs/designs/uncertainty-engine.md schema section: - uncertainty_prediction: emit + witness lifecycle (state machine over emitted | witnessed | orphaned | retired). Indexes on cohort_key, surface, state, and (state, orphan_after) to support the orphan sweep. - uncertainty_calibration_snapshot: materialized reliability per cohort, recomputed by the nightly calibration cron. Indexed on cohort_key. Created via wrangler d1 migrations create. Applied locally; both tables present and indexes verified. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Closes #97. First step of the Phase 1 stack.
Adds 0002_uncertainty_engine.sql with the uncertainty_prediction and uncertainty_calibration_snapshot tables and the four indexes the design doc calls for: cohort_key, surface, state, and (state, orphan_after) for the orphan sweep.
Created via wrangler d1 migrations create per the migration convention. Applied locally; both tables and indexes verified.
Stack: this -> #98 schema -> #99 routes -> #100 orphan cron -> #101 calibration cron.