Adapt maximum early retirement rates and differentiate between NPi and policy runs

CHANGELOG.md

@@ -30,6 +30,8 @@ The format is based on [Keep a Changelog](https://keepachangelog.com/en/1.0.0/).
     [#2249](https://github.com/remindmodel/remind/pull/2249)
 - **45_carbonprice** update NDC realization to run 2030+2035 NDC emissions targets by default and clean up and extend on switches for NDC variants
     [[#2289](https://github.com/remindmodel/remind/pull/2289)]
+- **core** Adapt maximum early retirement rates and differentiate between NPi and policy runs 
+    [[#2300](https://github.com/remindmodel/remind/pull/2300)]
 
 ### removed
 - **21_tax** remove input files with upper bounds on subsidies for final energy, as it is directly applied as part of input data generation

core/bounds.gms

@@ -184,9 +184,12 @@ if(cm_startyear <= 2015,
                                     / 7.5;  !! this parameter is currently only for display and not further used to fix anything
   p_deltaCapFromRWfix("2010",regi,"tnrs") = ( p_CapFixFromRWfix("2015",regi,"tnrs") - pm_aux_capLowerLimit("tnrs",regi,"2015") )
                                     / 7.5; !! this parameter is currently only for display and not further used to fix anything
-  vm_cap.fx("2015",regi,"tnrs","1") = p_CapFixFromRWfix("2015",regi,"tnrs");
+*** keep nuclear power capacity in +-10% range of historic data for 2015, choose range to allow for some flexibility for the model
+  vm_cap.lo("2015",regi,"tnrs","1") = 0.9 * p_CapFixFromRWfix("2015",regi,"tnrs");
+  vm_cap.up("2015",regi,"tnrs","1") = 1.1 * p_CapFixFromRWfix("2015",regi,"tnrs");
 );
 
+
 if(cm_startyear <= 2020, !! require the realization of at least 70% of the plants that are currently under construction and thus might be finished until 2020 - should be updated with real-world 2020 numbers
    vm_deltaCap.lo("2020",regi,"tnrs","1") = 0.70 * pm_NuclearConstraint("2020",regi,"tnrs") / 5;
    vm_deltaCap.up("2020",regi,"tnrs","1") = pm_NuclearConstraint("2020",regi,"tnrs") / 5;
@@ -378,6 +381,36 @@ v_co2capturevalve.up(t,regi) = 1 * s_MtCO2_2_GtC;
 *' #### 5. Early retirement and phase-out of technologies
 *** ==================================================================
 
+
+
+*' Early Retirement
+*' Early retirement of capacities is not possible as long as vm_capEarlyReti is fixed to zero.
+*' If early retirement should be activated, vm_capEarlyReti is allowed to increase up to one.
+*' One means that 100% of standing capacity of this technology is retired and does not produce output in this time step.
+*' allow early retirement only for technologies in teEarlyReti
+vm_capEarlyReti.up(t,regi,te)$( NOT(teEarlyReti(te))) = 0;
+vm_capEarlyReti.up(t,regi,teEarlyReti) = 1;
+
+$ifthen.tech_earlyreti not "%c_tech_earlyreti_rate%" == "off"
+*' allow early retirement also for technology and region combinations as defined by c_tech_earlyreti_rate switch
+loop((ext_regi,te) $ p_techEarlyRetiRate(ext_regi,te),
+  vm_capEarlyReti.up(t,regi,te) $ (regi_group(ext_regi,regi)) = 1;
+);
+$endif.tech_earlyreti
+
+*** restrict early retirement to time frame between 2015 and 2100 where it is relevant
+vm_capEarlyReti.up(ttot,regi,te) $ (ttot.val < 2010 or ttot.val > 2110) = 0;
+
+*** only US and EUR allow early retirement before 2035
+loop(regi$(NOT(regi_group("USA_regi",regi) or regi_group("EUR_regi",regi))),
+  vm_capEarlyReti.up(t,regi,te) $ (t.val <= 2030) = 0;
+);
+
+*** lower bound of 0.01% to help the model to be aware of the early retirement option is time steps where it is active
+vm_capEarlyReti.lo(t,regi,teEarlyReti) $ ( vm_capEarlyReti.up(t,regi,teEarlyReti) eq 1 and t.val > 2010 and t.val <= 2100) = 1e-4;
+
+*' Phase-out of technologies
+
 *' Switch off coal-h2 hydrogen investments after 2020, and gas-h2 investments after 2030. Our current seh2 hydrogen represents
 *' only additional (clean) hydrogen use cases to current ones. However, as we have too high H2 demand in 2025 and 2030 from the
 *' input data, we need to allow grey hydrogen for these time periods to meet the hydrogen demand which cannot be fully met by
@@ -389,34 +422,8 @@ vm_cap.lo(t,regi,"coalh2",rlf) $ (t.val >= 2020) = 0;
 vm_cap.lo(t,regi,"gash2",rlf) $ (t.val > 2030) = 0;
 
 
-*** CB: allow for early retirement at the start of free model time
-*** allow non zero early retirement for all technologies to avoid mathematical errors
-vm_capEarlyReti.up(t,regi,te) = 1e-6;
-*** generally allow full early retiremnt for all fossil technologies without CCS
-vm_capEarlyReti.up(t,regi,teFosNoCCS(te)) = 1;
-*** allow nuclear early retirement
-vm_capEarlyReti.up(t,regi,"tnrs") = 1;
-*** allow early retirement of biomass used in electricity
-vm_capEarlyReti.up(t,regi,"bioigcc") = 1;
-*** allow early retirement of biomass used for heat and power
-vm_capEarlyReti.up(t,regi,"biohp") = 1;
-vm_capEarlyReti.up(t,regi,"biochp") = 1;
-
-*** allow early retirement for techs added to the c_tech_earlyreti_rate switch
-$ifthen.tech_earlyreti not "%c_tech_earlyreti_rate%" == "off"
-loop((ext_regi,te) $ p_techEarlyRetiRate(ext_regi,te),
-  vm_capEarlyReti.up(t,regi,te) $ (regi_group(ext_regi,regi)) = 1;
-);
-$endif.tech_earlyreti
-
-*** restrict early retirement to the modeling time frame (to reduce runtime, the early retirement equations are phased out after 2110)
-vm_capEarlyReti.up(ttot,regi,te) $ (ttot.val < 2010 or ttot.val > 2110) = 0;
 
-*** lower bound of 0.01% to help the model to be aware of the early retirement option
-vm_capEarlyReti.lo(t,regi,te) $ (vm_capEarlyReti.up(t,regi,te) >= 1 and t.val > 2010 and t.val <= 2100) = 1e-4;
 
-*** CB 20120301: no early retirement for diesel oil turbines, they are used despite their economic non-competitiveness for various reasons.
-vm_capEarlyReti.fx(t,regi,"dot") = 0;
 
 
 *** strong reliance on coal-to-liquids is not consistent with SSP1 storyline, therefore limit their use in the SSP1 and SSP2 policy scenarios

core/datainput.gms

@@ -764,16 +764,36 @@ pm_cf(ttot,regi,"tdh2i") = pm_cf(ttot,regi,"tdh2s");
 loop(ext_regi$pm_extRegiEarlyRetiRate(ext_regi),
   pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,te)$(regi_group(ext_regi,regi)) = pm_extRegiEarlyRetiRate(ext_regi);
 );
-***Tech-specific*
-*RP*: reduce early retirement for technologies with additional characteristics that are difficult to represent in REMIND, eg. industries built around heating/CHP plants, or flexibility from ngt plants
+
+
+*** for runs with all EU subregions (regionmapping21_EU21), increase early retirement rates for the EU regions
+*** because the higher regional resolution already introduces more intertia to the phase-out dynamics
+*** check whether DEU, FRA, ENC, ESC, ESW, ECS all contained in regi set
+if(       (sum(regi$sameas(regi,"DEU"),1) > 0)
+      and (sum(regi$sameas(regi,"FRA"),1) > 0)
+      and (sum(regi$sameas(regi,"ENC"),1) > 0)
+      and (sum(regi$sameas(regi,"ESC"),1) > 0)
+      and (sum(regi$sameas(regi,"ESW"),1) > 0)
+      and (sum(regi$sameas(regi,"ECS"),1) > 0),
+*** increase default early retirement rates by 2%/yr for EU subregions
+  loop(regi$regi_group("EUR_regi",regi),
+    pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,te) = pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,te) + 0.02
+  );
+);
+
+
+*** Technology-specific adaptations of maximum allowed annual early retirement rates
+*** increase early retirement for technologies that are old and should be phased out faster
+pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"pc")      = 1.2 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"pc");       !! standard coal power plants, pc, are a relatively old technology that should be allowed to retire faster
+*** reduce early retirement for technologies with additional characteristics that are difficult to represent in REMIND, eg. industries built around heating/CHP plants, or flexibility from ngt plants
 pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"ngt")     = 0.3 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"ngt");      !! ngt should only be phased out very slowly, as they provide flexibility - which REMIND is not too good at capturing endogeneously
-pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"gaschp")  = 0.5 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"gaschp");   !! chp should only be phased out slowly, as district heating networks/ industry uses are designed to a specific heat input
-pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"coalchp") = 0.5 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"coalchp");  !! chp should only be phased out slowly, as district heating networks/ industry uses are designed to a specific heat input
-pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"gashp")   = 0.5 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"gashp");    !! chp should only be phased out slowly, as district heating networks/ industry uses are designed to a specific heat input
-pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"coalhp")  = 0.5 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"coalhp");   !! chp should only be phased out slowly, as district heating networks/ industry uses are designed to a specific heat input
-pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"biohp")   = 0.25 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"biohp");   !! chp should only be phased out slowly, as district heating networks/ industry uses are designed to a specific heat input
-pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"biochp")  = 0.25 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"biochp");  !! chp should only be phased out slowly, as district heating networks/ industry uses are designed to a specific heat input
-pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"bioigcc") = 0.25 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"bioigcc"); !! reduce bio early retirement rate
+pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"gaschp")  = 0.7 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"gaschp");   !! chp should only be phased out slowly, as district heating networks/ industry uses are designed to a specific heat input
+pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"coalchp") = 0.7 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"coalchp");  !! chp should only be phased out slowly, as district heating networks/ industry uses are designed to a specific heat input
+pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"gashp")   = 0.5 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"gashp");    !! district heating plants should only be phased out slowly, as district heating networks/ industry uses are designed to a specific heat input
+pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"coalhp")  = 0.5 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"coalhp");   !! district heating plants should only be phased out slowly, as district heating networks/ industry uses are designed to a specific heat input
+pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"biohp")   = 0.25 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"biohp");   !! biomass technologies should only be phased-out slowly, case for their early retirement is shifting the allocation of biomass across technologies to optimize biogenic carbon capture/use
+pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"biochp")  = 0.25 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"biochp");  !! biomass technologies should only be phased-out slowly, case for their early retirement is shifting the allocation of biomass across technologies to optimize biogenic carbon capture/use
+pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"bioigcc") = 0.25 * pm_regiEarlyRetiRate(t,regi,"bioigcc"); !! biomass technologies should only be phased-out slowly, case for their early retirement is shifting the allocation of biomass across technologies to optimize biogenic carbon capture/use
 
 $ifthen.tech_earlyreti not "%c_tech_earlyreti_rate%" == "off"
 loop((ext_regi,te)$p_techEarlyRetiRate(ext_regi,te),
@@ -1206,7 +1226,7 @@ loop(ttot$(ttot.val ge 2005),
   p_adj_seed_te(ttot,regi,"geohdr")     = 0.1;
   p_adj_seed_te(ttot,regi,"hydro")      = 0.25;
   p_adj_seed_te(ttot,regi,"windoff")    = 0.5;
-  p_adj_seed_te(ttot,regi,"spv")        = 2.00;
+  p_adj_seed_te(ttot,regi,"spv")        = 1.5;
   p_adj_seed_te(ttot,regi,"csp")        = 0.25;
   p_adj_seed_te(ttot,regi,"tnrs")       = 0.25;
 *** green hydrogen and synthetic fuels
@@ -1253,7 +1273,7 @@ $endif.cm_subsec_model_steel
   p_adj_coeff(ttot,regi,"hydro")        = 1.0;
   p_adj_coeff(ttot,regi,"windon")       = 0.25;
   p_adj_coeff(ttot,regi,"windoff")      = 0.35;
-  p_adj_coeff(ttot,regi,"spv")          = 0.15;
+  p_adj_coeff(ttot,regi,"spv")          = 0.18;
   p_adj_coeff(ttot,regi,"tnrs")         = 1.0;
 *** VRE storage and grid
   p_adj_coeff(ttot,regi,teGrid)         = 0.3;

core/sets.gms

@@ -1172,6 +1172,11 @@ $ifthen.cm_subsec_model_steel "%cm_subsec_model_steel%" == "processes"
     idrcc           "Direct reduction CCS"
 $endif.cm_subsec_model_steel
 /
+
+***-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+*** Definition of subsets of 'te':
+***-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
 teAdj(all_te)           "technologies with adjustment costs on capacity additions"
 /
     ngcc            "natural gas combined cycle"
@@ -1250,9 +1255,29 @@ $ifthen.cm_subsec_model_steel "%cm_subsec_model_steel%" == "processes"
 $endif.cm_subsec_model_steel
 /
 
-***-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-*** Definition of subsets of 'te':
-***-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+teEarlyReti(all_te)    "technologies for which early retirement of existing capacities is allowed (i.e. before end of technical lifetime)."
+/
+    ngcc
+    ngt
+    gastr
+    gaschp
+    gashp
+    gash2
+    gasftrec
+    refliq
+    igcc
+    pc
+    coalchp
+    coalhp
+    coaltr
+    coalgas
+    coalftrec
+    coalh2
+    biochp
+    biohp
+    bioigcc
+    tnrs
+/
 
 *** Note: technologies without endogenous learning can also have decreasing (or increasing) capital cost over time, due to for example convergence to global value
 teLearn(all_te)     "Learning technologies (for which investment costs are reduced endogenously through capacity deployment)."

main.gms

@@ -1398,11 +1398,17 @@ $setglobal cm_NPi_version  2025_cond    !! def = "2025_cond"  !! regexp = 2025_(
 *'  (ELEVATE2p3):     settings used for ELEVATE2p3 LTS and NDC-LTS scenario
 $setglobal cm_netZeroScen  NGFS_v4     !! def = "NGFS_v4"  !! regexp = NGFS_v4|NGFS_v4_20pc|ELEVATE2p3
 *' *  c_regi_earlyreti_rate  "maximum percentage of capital stock that can be retired early (before reaching their expected lifetimes) in one year in specified regions, if they are not economically viable. It is applied to all techs unless otherwise specified in c_tech_earlyreti_rate."
-*' *  GLO 0.09, EUR_regi 0.15: default value. (0.09 means full retirement after 11 years, 10% standing after 10 years)
-$setglobal c_regi_earlyreti_rate  GLO 0.09, EUR_regi 0.15      !! def = GLO 0.09, EUR_regi 0.15
+*' *  Default value used in NPi runs: EUR_regi 0.06, USA_regi 0.04, CHA_regi 0.04, CAZ_regi 0.04, JPN_regi 0.04, GLO 0.03 (0.06 means 6% of capacity can be retired early per year at maximum, i.e. full retirement after 16.7 years, 40% standing capacity after 10 years)
+*' *  In target scenarios with ambition level beyond the NPi, we assume slightly higher early retirement rates outside the EU.
+*' *  Target scenario maximum retirement rates: EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07,  JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06
+*' *  This reflects that the current aversion to shut down plants before end of their lifetime linked to political economy dynamics can be overcome to speed up the energy transition.
+*' *  Finally, note that these maximum early retirement rates are further differentiated by technology. Coal power has 20% higher rates, for instance, while CHP plants have 30% lower rates than the default value (see core/datainput.gms).
+$setglobal c_regi_earlyreti_rate  EUR_regi 0.06, USA_regi 0.04, CHA_regi 0.04, CAZ_regi 0.04, JPN_regi 0.04, GLO 0.03      !! def = EUR_regi 0.06, USA_regi 0.04, CHA_regi 0.04, CAZ_regi 0.04, JPN_regi 0.04, GLO 0.03
 *' *  c_tech_earlyreti_rate  "maximum percentage of capital stock of specific technologies that can be retired early in one year in specified regions. This switch overrides c_regi_earlyreti_rate to allow for fine-tuning of phase-out schedules, e.g. for implementation of certain policies or anticipated trends."
-*' *  USA_regi.pc 0.13, REF_regi.pc 0.13, CHA_regi.pc 0.13: default value, including retirement of 1st gen biofuels, higher rate of coal phase-out for USA, REF and CHA
-$setglobal c_tech_earlyreti_rate  USA_regi.pc 0.13, REF_regi.pc 0.13, CHA_regi.pc 0.13 !! def = USA_regi.pc 0.13, REF_regi.pc 0.13, CHA_regi.pc 0.13
+*' *  Example use: USA_regi.pc 0.1, CHA_regi.pc 0.1: Change max retirement rates for coal power in US and China to 10%/yr.
+*' *  Keep value "off" if not needed.
+*' *  This switch only changes the retirement rates strictly before the year specified in c_earlyRetiValidYr (default 2035).
+$setglobal c_tech_earlyreti_rate  off !! def = off
 *** cm_LU_emi_scen   "choose emission baseline for CO2, CH4, and N2O land use emissions from MAgPIE"
 ***  (SSP1): emissions (from SSP1 scenario in MAgPIE)
 ***  (SSP2): emissions (from SSP2 scenario in MAgPIE)

modules/45_carbonprice/NPi2025/datainput.gms

@@ -10,15 +10,27 @@
 *** CO2 Tax level growing exponentially from 2025 value taken from input data
 ***----------------------------
 
+*** for years up to 2025 take CO2 price defined by fm_taxCO2eqHist 
+*** fm_taxCO2eqHist reflects historical carbon prices and
+*** assumptions on current aggregate effect of other policies
 pm_taxCO2eq(ttot,regi)$(ttot.val le 2025) = fm_taxCO2eqHist(ttot,regi) * sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC;
 
-pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$(t.val gt 2025) = sum(ttot, pm_taxCO2eq(ttot,regi)$(ttot.val eq 2025)) + (t.val - 2025) * (20/75) * sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC;
+*** for years after 2025, assume modest linear increase of CO2 price by 20 USD/tCO2 over 75 years (2025-2100)
+pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$(t.val gt 2025) = pm_taxCO2eq("2025",regi)
+                                      + (t.val - 2025) * (20/75) * sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC;
 
+
+*** for EU, take carbon price from fm_taxCO2eqHist up to 2030,
+*** then increase linearly by 20 USD/tCO2 over 75 years (2030-2100)
 loop(ext_regi$sameas(ext_regi, "EUR_regi"),
-  pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$(t.val ge 2030 AND regi_group(ext_regi,regi)) = (fm_taxCO2eqHist("2030",regi)+ (t.val - 2030) * (20/75)) * sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC;
+  pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$(     t.val ge 2030
+                        AND regi_group(ext_regi,regi)) = ( fm_taxCO2eqHist("2030",regi)
+                                                           + (t.val - 2030) * (20/75) ) * sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC;
  );
 
-pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$(t.val gt 2100) = pm_taxCO2eq("2100",regi); !! to prevent huge taxes after 2100 and the resulting convergence problems, set taxes after 2100 equal to 2100 value
+
+*** after 2100, keep CO2 price constant at 2100 level
+pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$(t.val gt 2100) = pm_taxCO2eq("2100",regi);
 
 *** switch off MAC abatement of land emissions, scenario should only have Magpie baseline emissions
 pm_macSwitch(ttot,regi,emiMacMagpie) = 0;