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Output Format
Enreign edited this page Mar 11, 2026
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Every estimate follows a strict ordering: summary first, details on demand.
- One-line summary — always first, always scannable
- PERT expected value — the single "most likely" number with confidence bands
- Breakdown table — agent rounds, times, human time
- Confidence bands — expected vs committed estimates
- Risk notes & warnings — anti-pattern guards, uncertainty flags
- Tracker-formatted block — if tracker specified
- Subtasks — if applicable
Output format adapts to the detected Cooperation Modes:
| Mode | Summary Format | Points in Output | Sprint Fit Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Human-only | Expected: ~4 hrs (5 pts) |
Prominent | Points |
| Hybrid | Expected: ~4 hrs | 5 pts (sizing only) |
Labeled | Hours |
| Agent-first | Expected: ~70 min (~22 min review) |
Only if requested | Review hours |
Expected: ~4 hrs | Committed (80%): ~5.5 hrs | 10-26 agent rounds (~180k tokens) + 3 hrs human | Risk: medium | Size: M
PERT Expected: 4.2 hrs (most likely outcome)
Standard Deviation: ±0.8 hrs
68% Confidence: 3.4 - 5.0 hrs
95% Confidence: 2.6 - 5.8 hrs
Committed (80%): 5.5 hrs
5 tasks | Expected: ~23.5 hrs | Committed (80%): ~32.8 hrs | 2S, 2M, 1L
| # | Task | Size | Type | Expected | Committed (80%) | Risk | Deps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auth service | M | coding | ~4h | ~5.5h | med | — |
| 2 | DB migration | L | data-mig | ~14h | ~20h | high | — |
Total effort (expected): ~23.5 hrs
Total effort (committed 80%): ~32.8 hrs
Wallclock (sequential): 23.5 hrs
Team: 1 human, 1 agent
Size distribution: 2S, 2M, 1L
Warnings:
- Task #2 is data-migration (2.0x overhead). Consider phased delivery.
- Task #2 has the widest range. Consider decomposing.
The skill automatically warns when it detects risky patterns:
| Pattern | Warning |
|---|---|
| Task is XL | "Consider breaking into smaller tasks" |
| Total > 2 weeks | "High uncertainty. Consider phased delivery." |
| Spread ratio > 3× | "Wide range. Consider investigation spike first." |
| Definition = concept | "Concept-phase. Don't commit to deadlines yet." |
| Task = investigation | "Timebox this. Output is a plan, not code." |
Estimates use the most readable unit:
- Under 2 hours: minutes
- 2-16 hours: hours
- Over 16 hours: days (8-hour workday)
- Over 2 weeks: weeks
Getting Started
Core Concepts
- How It Works
- Task Types
- Agent Effectiveness
- Confidence Levels
- Cone of Uncertainty
- PERT Statistics
- Small Council
Reference
Accuracy
Contributors